Capital One

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Tuesday’s Featured Story

Capital One Just Flashed a Buy Signal—New Highs Could Be Next

Written by Chris Markoch. Published 10/23/2025. 

In this photo the logo of Capital One Company is displayed on a smartphone screen

Key Points

  • Capital One’s first full quarter since the Discover merger delivered strong upside, with beats across key financial metrics and a boost in margins.
  • Credit performance held steady, easing concerns heading into earnings season and showing resilience in the lending environment.
  • A sizable buyback and dividend increase reflect management’s confidence, while analyst upgrades and price action point toward a potential move to new highs.

Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) left little doubt for investors who had been on the fence.

The company delivered a strong earnings report. Based on the stock move and analysts’ reactions immediately after the release, the setup looks like a favorable buying opportunity.

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COF stock rose about 3.39% in midday trading following the earnings, approaching its all-time high. Although modest, this move likely signals the beginning of a larger upward trend.

Capital One Checked All the Boxes

Capital One completed its merger with Discover Financial in May, making this the first fully inclusive earnings report since the deal closed. The impact was clearly positive.

Revenue of $15.36 billion beat expectations of $15.06 billion and was roughly 23% higher than the prior quarter. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.95 topped estimates of $4.25 and rose about 8.5% from the previous quarter. The company’s net interest margin increased to 8.36% — up approximately 75 basis points, with about 45 basis points attributable to Discover.

Heading into earnings season, investors in financial stocks that extend credit were watching two items closely: the provision for credit losses and the net charge-off ratio. Capital One faced particular scrutiny because of Discover’s recent data.

Those concerns largely dissipated. Capital One reported:

  • A smaller-than-expected provision for credit losses of $2.71 billion (up from $2.48 billion a year earlier).
  • A net charge-off ratio that declined to 3.16%, down from 3.27% a year ago.

Buybacks and Dividend Increases Are Bullish for Shareholders

Shareholders received additional positive news when Capital One announced a new $16 billion share repurchase program effective immediately. The buyback equals nearly 12% of the company’s current market capitalization and replaces the authorization issued in April 2022.

The company also raised its quarterly dividend by 33%, from $0.60 per share to $0.80, beginning with the next distribution.

COF Stock Has a Bullish Setup for New Highs

COF is trading near the upper Bollinger band and has an RSI around 58 (not shown). That combination is mildly bullish without being overbought.

Historically, moves to the upper band have often led to brief pullbacks or consolidation rather than steep declines. Those corrections have tended to be modest.

COF stock chart

The MACD shows only minimal separation after a bullish crossover, suggesting momentum is present but not overheated.

Investors should watch for signs of sustained momentum following this post-earnings lift, which may be amplified in the near term by high-frequency trading.

Even if a pullback occurs, the stock is unlikely to fall all the way back to the $202 level, which acted as support on two occasions in the past 30 days.

Near-term support/resistance interest may form around $214. Analysts have already been active following the report.

The Capital One analyst forecasts on MarketBeatshow five analysts raising their price targets and one analyst reiterating a target. In all but one case, the revised targets are above the consensus price target of $258.89.

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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