Behind Circle’s Fall: Growth Potential and Risks

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Why Circle Stock Is Falling—and Why Some Analysts See Big Upside

Written by Nathan Reiff on November 24, 2025 

Stablecoin symbols against stock exchange.

Key Points

  • Circle Internet has fallen far from its post-IPO highs, dropping by close to 50% in November alone.
  • The company’s significant revenue growth and stablecoin transaction volume bode well, but they may be outweighed by rising costs and margin concerns.
  • On a macro level, a declining interest rate environment poses a challenge to Circle’s model, and regulatory uncertainty exacerbates the issue.

Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL), the fintech best known as the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, has been on a tumultuous share price path since going public in June.

The stock quickly ballooned to almost $250, then fell, before rallying again over the summer. As of late November, shares have dropped by more than 42% in the past month, falling below $72.

While this volatility is notable, what really makes Circle’s story interesting for investors is its ambitious price target. Analysts collectively see the stock more than double to $150.33 per share.

Below, we’ll explore the drivers behind the recent selloff and whether there is still a bullish case to be made for this beleaguered new entrant to the fintech stock space.

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A Closer Look at Circle’s Selloff

The recent selloff, which brought Circle in line with its debut price from early June, seems counterintuitive based on the company’s recent earnings performance.

For the third quarter, Circle’s year-over-year (YOY) revenue improvement reached 66%, an acceleration over the prior quarter’s already-impressive gains.

Revenue of $740 million came alongside an improvement in adjusted EBITDA to $166 million from $126 million a year earlier.

A portion of the recent decline in Circle’s price is likely tied to its exposure to the broader crypto space, which has tumbled as Bitcoin plunged by nearly 23% in the last month.

Despite Circle’s focus on the stablecoin corner of the crypto sphere, this market is still not sufficiently disentangled to avoid the situation in which a major correction in Bitcoin impacts firms that are only loosely linked to BTC.

But the bigger problems for Circle may have been its anticipated costs and the external headwinds of changing interest rates. Circle announced in its latest earnings that it would raise its full-year guidance for adjusted operating expenses as high as $510 million, putting pressure on margins.

Additionally, a significant portion of its revenue is tied to interest earned on cash and Treasuries backing USDC. With potential U.S. interest rate cuts looming, this revenue stream may shrink in the coming quarters.

Analysts Split on CRCL’s Future as Price Target Holds Firm

Wall Street is divided regarding CRCL stock, with 10 analysts rating the stock as a Buy, nine saying it’s a Hold, and three marking it as a Sell.

So far in November, firms including Wells Fargo and Needham & Co. have lowered their price targets—but kept their ratings.

Others, like Baird and JPMorgan, are in a small group that believes CRCL’s decline could be a prime opportunity to buy the dip—these firms have actually upgraded CRCL targets in the last several weeks.

The bullish thesis is rooted in USDC’s rapid adoption. In the latest quarter, USDC’s circulation more than doubled YOY, and on-chain transaction volume surged 580%. If this momentum continues, it could drive long-term gains for CRCL.

Broader stablecoin adoption in the face of a declining greenback, inflation, or other macro pressures may also fuel growth. Finally, if Circle continues to expand its infrastructure revenue, making it less reliant on the success of USDC, investors may find it worthwhile to reward this diversification.

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Can Circle Really Double?

To be sure, Circle’s challenges are many—the company faces intense margin pressure, increasing competition from other stablecoins, and a shifting regulatory landscape marked earlier this year by the passage of the GENIUS Act. The company’s successes will have to outweigh these risks by a wide margin if it is to reverse course from its current decline, let alone double in value.

Investors willing to take a risk on a company that could generate significant returns may appreciate the opportunity that Circle’s dip presents. Similarly, long-term fintech bullsbelieving that stablecoins are likely to be widespread might be drawn to CRCL. For most investors, though, CRCL’s recent selloff may seem to be justified, so long as the risks remain.

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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