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Today’s Featured Article

NVIDIA Just Proved the AI Boom Is Bigger Than Anyone Thought

Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 

NVIDIA logo positioned in front of rising stock chart.

Key Points

  • NVIDIA’s Q3 release and guidance update indicated that the AI trade is still alive, with the industry larger and growing faster than anticipated.
  • Revenue growth is accelerating, and forecasts for 2026 suggest analyst estimates are as much as 100% too low.
  • Analysts are lifting their targets, pointing to a steep price increase over the next 12 months.

If there were any doubts about the AI trade and its health ahead of NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) Q3 earnings release, they have been laid to rest. The company delivered another standout quarter, accelerating revenue growth to over 60% year-over-year and beating consensus estimates.

NVIDIA’s stunning outperformance suggests the AI boom is larger and expanding faster than anticipated. The company’s Q4 guidance was about $3 billion above MarketBeat’s reported consensus—nearly 500 basis points—and trends suggest NVIDIA could again exceed expectations. CEO Jensen Huang said GPUs and GPU capacity are sold out, with clear visibility through the end of next calendar year. 

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NVDA chart displaying 5% premarket advance in the stock following the Q3 earnings release.

NVIDIA’s Outlook for 2026: Analyst Forecasts Are Too Low

Looking forward, NVIDIA expects about $500 million in Blackwell and Rubin revenue over the next five quarters, including the current quarter. That figure is more than 60% higher than the consensus forecast for the year—and that’s before accounting for contributions from other business segments.

The Q3 results showed strength across the board, with double-digit growth in all segments, highlighting the company’s broad-based momentum.

In this light, NVIDIA’s 2026 analyst forecasts may be understated by as much as 100%, a gap that could push the stock toward record levels.

The analyst community was quick to respond. MarketBeat tracked nine price target revisions within the first 12 hours of the release, and all are bullish for the market.

Although there were no formal upgrades (nearly 94% of ratings already sit at Buy or higher), several firms raised price targets or reaffirmed their views.

The consensus implies about a 30% upside versus the pre-release close, while the average of the updated targets suggests a potentially larger move. The average forecast after the earnings release is currently $262, with the high-end at $350.

Notably, both low-end and high-end targets are trending higher, indicating a broad shift supported by a sizable portion of the market. A move to the high-end range would represent nearly a 100% gain from pre-earnings levels. 

Institutional activity remains a key driver of NVIDIA stock. Institutions own roughly 65% of outstanding shares; despite some selling in early Q4, they have been broadly bullish this year and are likely to resume buying in the back half of Q4 now that the results are public. 

NVIDIA’s Balance Sheet and Shareholder Value Swell

NVIDIA’s financial position adds another layer of confidence. The company’s revenue surge improved operating leverage, driving stronger margins, cash flow and profits. Earnings per share, which significantly outperformed consensus estimates, are forecast to grow in 2026 alongside revenue. 

The company’s balance sheet is notably strong. NVIDIA is net cash positive, and its cash holdings grew by about 40% year-to-date to more than $60 billion. Although the dividend yield remains modest at 0.05%, share repurchases have been meaningful—reducing the share count by roughly 1% in Q3—and are likely to continue.

NVIDIA Trigger Buy Signal

Technically, the stock looked vulnerable ahead of the Q3 release—with candlestick patterns, MACD and the stochastic oscillator all pointing to a potential top. NVIDIA’s strong earnings, however, triggered a new buy signal. Shares jumped more than 5% in pre-market trading, finding support at key trend levels. Given favorable long-term trends and solid fundamentals, NVIDIA remains well-positioned to benefit from the accelerating AI cycle.

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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