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Good investing,

Porter Stansberry

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Additional Reading from MarketBeat

Rare Earth Stocks: The Truce That Isn’t a Truce

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Published 11/12/2025. 

Key Points

• Growing geopolitical competition is solidifying long-term government support for a secure domestic supply chain.
• America’s leading rare earth companies are successfully turning strategic blueprints into tangible operational milestones.
• Recent market volatility driven by temporary headlines may present a compelling entry point for long-term investors.

Recent headlines celebrating a U.S.-China trade truce have lulled the market into a false sense of security and triggered a sharp sell-off in domestic rare earth stocks. Behind those headlines, however, a more strategic and confrontational reality is emerging.

Beijing is now crafting a validated end-user (VEU) system — a surgical tool designed to maintain the flow of rare earths to approved, purely civilian American companies while explicitly blocking access for the U.S. military and its extensive network of contractors.

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This isn’t de-escalation; it’s a declaration of a new, more targeted front in the global tech and defenserace. The shift makes the development of domestic producers such as MP Materials (NYSE: MP) and USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) not just strategically important but mission-critical.

China Sharpens Its Weapon, Russia Joins the Fray

Pressure to build a secure U.S. supply chain is now coming from two global rivals, reshaping the strategic landscape and strengthening the long-term investment case for domestic producers.

First, China has sharpened its export-control tools. The VEU plan is a sophisticated escalation that weaponizes its supply-chain dominance by creating a potential red list for defense-related firms. That uncertainty affects any U.S. company with dual-use applications in sectors like aerospace and automotive.

The targeted approach is intended to inflict maximum pain on America’s national-security apparatus while minimizing collateral damage to broader commercial ties, making it a more sustainable — and more dangerous — long-term policy.

Second, while China refines its export tools, Russia is moving to build its own. President Vladimir Putin’s recent directive to create a national strategy roadmap for rare earth extraction signals a long-term strategic pivot. That raises the prospect of a coordinated China–Russia bloc in critical minerals, which would further consolidate supply away from the West.

These developments elevate the U.S. domestic supply-chain initiative from an important industrial policy to an urgent national-security mission. The investment case is no longer a speculative hedge on trade tensions; it is a fundamental bet on a government-mandated build-out of a defense-oriented supply chain.

De-Risked and Ready to Deliver

China’s VEU plan makes recent multi-billion-dollar U.S. investments in the domestic rare earth sector look not just strategic, but prescient. Washington is building a resilient ecosystem designed to withstand this exact threat, with MP Materials and USA Rare Earth as cornerstones.

• MP Materials: America’s designated prime contractor. China’s strategy to cut off the U.S. military directly elevates MP’s importance. Its contracts with the Department of Defense are now more critical than ever. The 10-year price floor, which began on Oct. 1, provides revenue stability for the very products China seeks to restrict. MP Materials’ recent third-quarter 2025 earnings reportshowed record production of 721 metric tons of high-value NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium), demonstrating its ability to meet secure demand. With a cash balance of $1.94 billion, it has the financial firepower to accelerate build-out to meet defense-related demand surges.
• USA Rare Earth: The strategic second source. In a world of targeted supply-chain attacks, redundancy is key. USAR’s acquisition of UK-based Less Common Metals (LCM)brings immediate non-Chinese expertise in specialized metals and alloys needed for defense-grade magnets. Combined with a post-Q3 cash position of over $400 million, USAR is well positioned to become America’s critical second source and increase its chances of securing lucrative DoD contracts as it approaches Q1 2026 commissioning.

The Market’s Miscalculation: A Powder Keg of Opportunity

The market sold off on a simplistic truce headline, creating a stark valuation disconnect. Analyst consensus remains a Moderate Buy on both companies, and the recent price drops have widened the gap to their average analyst targets.

As of Nov. 11, consensus price targets implied potential upside of over 26% for MP Materials and over 48% for USA Rare Earth.

Adding to the dynamics is high short interest against the sector — 17.89% for MP and 14.45% for USAR. That extreme pessimism creates a coiled-spring scenario: any sudden geopolitical escalation, such as a formal announcement of China’s VEU list or a new U.S. defense contract, could instantly invalidate the bearish thesis and force short sellers to buy back shares en masse.

That forced buying could trigger an explosive rebound. The race for rare earth supremacy is accelerating; for investors with a long-term horizon, today’s fear may have put a strategically vital sector on sale.

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