Dear Reader,
The Iran conflict just exposed something most people missed.
America holds a monopoly over the single material every enemy nation needs to build advanced technology.
Semiconductors. AI chips. Military electronics.
Telecommunications. Drones.
None of it gets made without this material — and 80% of the world’s supply comes from one tiny North Carolina town.
For years, we’ve handed it over freely.
That’s about to end.
Trump is expected to ban all exports — cutting off China, Iran, and every hostile nation overnight.
The New Yorker warns: “Without it, the global economy might well unravel.”
When Trump pulls that trigger, foreign tech infrastructure collapses. And every major chipmaker is forced to rebuild on American soil.
Morgan Stanley estimates the reshoring boom could trigger a $10 trillion economic transformation.
A handful of U.S. companies are positioned to capture most of it.
To Your Profits,
Adam O’Dell
Chief Investment Strategist, Money & Markets
Special Report
After Cooling Off, On Holding May Be Ready to Sprint Higher
Reported by Thomas Hughes. Article Posted: 3/6/2026.
Key Points
- On Holding’s Q4 2025 results showed strong, broad-based growth across channels, categories, and regions.
- Fiscal 2026 guidance came in light, but analysts largely view it as conservative and still expect outperformance.
- Analyst sentiment and institutional activity suggest support near key technical levels and potential upside.
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On Holding’s (NYSE: ONON) share price has struggled amid fears of slowing growth, valuation concerns, and the impact of tariffs, but the selling appears to be abating. Q4 2025 results were strong, with growth holding up across channels and categories. While 2026 guidance fell short of consensus, the company is forecasting another solid year and analysts expect outperformance.
The analysts’ response suggests the guidance miss may have been deliberate; On Holding often sets conservative targets and then exceeds them. The company expects to sustain a roughly 20%+ growth pace in the coming year, driven by strengths across segments and retail categories.
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Data from MarketBeat shows coverage rising and sentiment firming: 25 analysts cover the stock and there is an 84% buy-side bias toward the Moderate Buy rating. The price target remains bullish and steady despite the March revisions, implying roughly 40% upside from a key support level. That critical support target is the long-term exponential moving average near $41.30, where the stock has found support in prior periods.
Support is also visible in analysts’ trends and institutional activity. Coverage, price targets and institutional holdings have all trended higher. Institutions accumulated ONON shares in three of four quarters in 2025 and in the first two months of Q1 2026, ramping activity to record levels even as the price retreated. That accumulation points to a solid base and a tailwind that could drive the stock higher over time. The main question is timing — and the rebound could begin before mid-year. If guidance proves conservative, the next visible catalyst is Q1 2026 earnings in mid-May.
On Holding Tanks on Robust Results and Growth Outlook
On Holding’s Q4 was as solid as they come, with revenue rising about 34%, slightly ahead of consensus. Strength came from a 31% increase in wholesale and a 30% rise in higher-margin direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, supported by 21% growth in core shoes, 38% in apparel and 117% in accessories. Regionally, Asia-Pacific (APAC) led with an 85% increase, followed by a 21.3% gain in the Americas and a modest 2.5% rise in EMEA (Europe, Middle East & Africa).
The margin story is mixed but ultimately constructive. Net income margin declined more than expected due to aggressive investment and foreign-exchange (FX) headwinds, but that was offset by record gross margins and a 31.8% increase in EBITDA. The stock weakness in early March stemmed from guidance that missed expectations, which stoked fears of slowing growth and margin pressure in the retail space.
On Holding Builds Value for Investors
There are no red flags on On Holding’s balance sheet. The company is well-capitalized and holds net cash versus debt. Shareholder equity rose about 17% in 2025 and is expected to continue increasing. On Holding has prioritized reinvesting in growth rather than returning capital to shareholders, but it appears on track to return capital in coming years.
Key catalysts for 2026 include strong apparel sales that support durable revenue and margins, continued focus on DTC channels, and improving brand awareness. On engages top athletes and leverages its premium positioning to tell targeted stories that motivate consumers. DTC is a double-edged sword — it can boost growth and margins while risking friction with wholesale partners, as Nike’s experience illustrates. Other risks include FX headwinds and the potential for slowing growth.
Price action has been mixed since the release. The report triggered a sharp sell-off that, in turn, spurred buying. Since then, the stock has met resistance near the short-term 30-day exponential moving average (EMA), which could cap near-term gains. Over the longer term, ONON looks positioned to rebound and could accelerate higher once the recovery starts.
Just For You
The Copper Shortage Is Coming—These 3 Miners Are Ready
Author: Chris Markoch. Published: 3/8/2026.
Key Points
- Aging global copper mines and rising electrification demand could create a structural copper supply shortage.
- Small-cap miners with operating assets or near-term projects may benefit most from rising copper prices.
- Taseko Mines, Talon Metals, and Arizona Sonoran Copper offer different ways for investors to gain exposure.
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Fear sells. But a headline about a copper shortage should excite investors, not frighten them—especially those with a long-term outlook on basic materials stocks, including mining companies. The advancing age of many copper mines strengthens the case for several small-cap copper miners.
Copper mines, no matter how productive, have finite lives. Many of the world’s largest mines are also among the oldest. That doesn’t mean they will stop producing, but each will generally yield less copper per ton of ore moved.
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That looming supply shortfall is occurring at the same time the world needs more copper, not less. That mismatch is where opportunities can emerge for small-cap miners.
Even under a friendly administration, permitting and building new mines is difficult, costly and time-consuming. That gives companies with existing operations or near-term projects a built-in advantage—one that can lead to rising asset valuations.
Small-cap stocks have been out of favor, but that may change as investors search for growth in a lower-rate environment. Here are three names to consider.
Taseko Mines Expands Production in Tier-1 Jurisdictions
First up is Taseko Mines Ltd. (NYSEAMERICAN: TGB), a Vancouver-based Canadian miner. The company already operates the Gibraltar project in British Columbia, one of Canada’s largest open-pit copper producers. Taseko is guiding for output of 110–115 million pounds in 2026, up from roughly 99 million pounds in 2025.
Adding to the bullish outlook, Taseko has started copper production at its Florence in-situ project in Arizona, another Tier-1 jurisdiction. On March 2, the company announced it had harvested its first copper cathodes from the Florence project—the first new copper production from a greenfield facility in the United States since 2008.
Management expects Gibraltar’s higher-grade Connector pit to deliver stable production through at least 2029. If that holds, it should give the company time to ramp up Florence, enhancing Taseko’s long-term appeal.
TGB stock recently closed near $7.50, above the consensus price target of roughly $5, though that target is based on just two analysts. Institutional ownership is low but has increased over the last two quarters. If Taseko meets its production goals, analysts will likely revise their targets upward.
Talon Metals Offers High-Risk, High-Reward Potential
Talon Metals Corp. (OTCMKTS: TLOFF) is a small company with sizable upside. Its leading project, the Tamarack project in Minnesota, is a joint venture with Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO). Access to a major miner’s technology and balance sheet should provide investors with additional confidence.
Talon also operates the Eagle Mine and Humboldt Mill in Michigan, currently the only nickel mine in the United States, linking the company to the battery and EV supply chain. The company secured an extension from Rio Tinto’s Kennecott subsidiary to complete a feasibility study and additional spending to earn up to 60% ownership, with a key environmental review milestone expected in the first half of 2026.
TLOFF stock has been an incredible performer, gaining more than 990% over the last 12 months. It’s also up over 45% in 2026. The stock recently closed near $6.25, about 6.5% above the consensus price target of roughly $5.84.
Arizona Sonoran’s Acquisition Highlights Copper Value
One of the ways small-cap miners grow is through acquisition—and that’s the case with Arizona Sonoran Copper (OTC: ASCUF), which is being acquired by Hudbay Minerals (NYSE: HBM).
Arizona Sonoran controls 100% of the brownfield Cactus copper project in Arizona. The acquisition will give Hudbay full control of the Cactus project.
Combined with Hudbay’s Copper World asset, the deal will create the third-largest copper district in North America and establish a major hub for U.S. copper production. Cactus could add roughly 103,000 tonnes of annual copper production once developed, with proven and probable reserves of 5.3 billion pounds of copper over a 20-year mine life.
Boards of both companies have approved the agreement, which is expected to close in the second quarter of this year. That may discourage direct investment in ASCUF shares today, but once the deal is finalized each ASCUF share will be exchanged for 0.242 common shares of HBM stock.
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Today’s Featured Content: Trump Did What!?!? (From InvestorPlace)
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