The Market’s Coiled Spring

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

The breakout fired. You took the entry. Then it reversed and stopped you out — again.

It’s not your analysis. It’s not your timing. It’s a squeeze trap. The market creates the appearance of a move, triggers entries, then snaps back violently. Most traders don’t fail because they’re wrong. They fail because they’re baited.

Tomorrow at 2PM ET, Brandon Chapman is replaying his Squeeze Traps session — where he breaks down exactly how to spot the difference between a fake out and the real deal before price confirms it. 

You’ll see the Ghost Prints system that caught 375% on KSS, 222% on PLUG, and dozens of setups the crowd missed completely.

If you’re tired of being exit liquidity, this is how you fix it.

👉 ADD THE 2PM ENCORE TO YOUR CALENDAR →

Don here…

The S&P 500 is only down 13 points on the session. In the context of what we’ve seen lately, that’s massively unchanged.

Do not let your guard down.

The options market is pricing in a $224 expected move on the week. The actual move so far is 30 points. The week opened at 6,740 and we’re sitting at 6,770 right now.

That kind of compression tells you the market is coiled. It’s waiting for a catalyst, and the catalysts are stacked up on Friday’s calendar: durable goods, GDP, PCE, consumer sentiment, and JOLTS all land on March 13th.

Even the Friday expiration alone still carries nearly a $100 expected move with only two sessions left. That is significant.

Here’s what I’m watching in tonight’s video:

  • The VIX is sitting in an intense zone at 24 to 25, volatility futures remain in backwardation, and the VVIX is printing 123. Nobody is giving up their hedges.
  • Downside convexity is the defining feature of this tape. A rally gets us back to 7,100. A breakdown takes the S&P to the low 6,000s. That’s roughly 300 points of upside versus 700 points of downside risk.
  • The S&P is only 3.5% removed from its all time high. The peak to trough selloff so far has been about 5%. This market hasn’t even begun to sell off in any meaningful way.
  • Financials are oversold after breaching the expected move to the downside for multiple consecutive weeks. I see a short term bounce trade targeting a move back to the 51 to 52 level.
  • I have a spread on Microsoft positioned for a retest through the $400 level, and a bounce and fade trade on FXI where sell side activity has been dominant.

Spreads are the strategy right now. You don’t have to be right on direction. You just have to be in trades and let the volatility work in your favor.

Click here to watch me break down every level and trade I’m positioning for right now

To your success,

Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

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Don Kaufman

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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