Elon Musk’s $1 Quadrillion AI IPO

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Exclusive Article

Palantir Stock Rises on Iran Conflict—But Here’s the Real Story

Written by Chris Markoch. Article Posted: 3/2/2026. 

Palantir control room with data dashboards and AI analytics interface displayed on multiple monitors, representing AI defense contract and decisioning software growth.

Key Points

  • Palantir stock surged on geopolitical tensions, but headline-driven rallies have historically been followed by sharp pullbacks, making timing critical for short-term traders.
  • A new partnership with GE Aerospace and the U.S. Department of Defense highlights Palantir’s expanding AI-driven analytics platform, reinforcing its leadership in defense technology and operational decisioning software.
  • Rapid commercial revenue growth and improving analyst sentiment suggest Palantir is evolving beyond its reliance on government contracts, positioning PLTR as a long-term AI growth stock despite valuation debates and near-term volatility.
  • Special Report: Why I’m avoiding Nvidia (and buying these 3 AI stocks instead) (From TradingTips)

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) stock was up more than 5% in intraday trading on Monday, March 2. The rally followed the initiation of military action by the United States and Israel against Iran. It may look like an enticing trade, but remember that rapid gains can reverse just as quickly.

For example, PLTR made a similar jump when the United States conducted a raid in Venezuela in January, only to pull back quickly — trading near $130 just one week before the recent conflict with Iran began.

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That pattern creates a tricky setup for short-term traders.

A string of event-driven spikes followed by swift reversals tempts some to treat Palantir as a pure proxy for geopolitical risk rather than a company that is compounding underlying value.

That approach can work if you are disciplined about timing entries and exits, but it also raises the risk of getting whipsawed if headlines shift or the news is already priced in when you act.

For long-term investors, the lesson is different: don’t confuse headline-driven volatility with the company’s operational progress. Separating short-term noise from fundamentals is one reason Palantir can still make sense as a long-term holding.

Palantir and GE Aerospace Land DoD Partnership for J85 Engine Support

Before hostilities began, there was a separate development that strengthened the buy-and-hold case for PLTR. Palantir and GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE) announced a partnership on a contract with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD).

The partnership covers the J85 engines manufactured by GE Aerospace, which power T-38 training jets. The contract with the Defense Logistics Agency is for seven months, with the potential for a four-year extension.

Specifically, GE Aerospace is working with Palantir to apply AI and data analytics to predict when parts will be needed, detect supply chain issues early, and accelerate decision-making. Before announcing the partnership, the two companies ran a test on more than 6,000 J85 parts that showed improved visibility and fewer delays.

The Contract Highlights the Totality of Palantir’s Business

Critics will say this is more evidence of Palantir’s reliance on government contracts. That view is short-sighted for two reasons. It’s true Palantir generates about 55% of its revenue from government contracts. But “the government” is not a single customer; the DoD is one of many public-sector clients, and a deal like the one with GE Aerospace is additive to future growth.

More importantly, the contract could spill over into Palantir’s commercial business. GE Aerospace is using Palantir’s software for applications that have clear crossovers into commercial aviation, which could create additional commercial opportunities.

In Palantir’s most recent earnings report, the company said U.S. commercial revenuerose 109% year-over-year (YOY) for full-year 2025. In Q4 2025, U.S. commercial revenue increased 137% YOY versus Q4 2024.

The takeaway: among technology stocks, Palantir has emerged as a leader in AI decisioning software used to automate and improve decision-making processes. It has also built credibility in both the public and private sectors.

Analysts Have Turned Bullish

There are two common viewpoints on Palantir’s valuation: one argues the stock must fall to justify its current valuation; the other expects the business to grow into it. Before the recent military action, analyst sentiment was tilting toward the latter.

The Palantir analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show that at least nine analysts upgraded PLTR in February. The lowest price target tied to those upgrades was $150 — about 12% above PLTR’s close on Feb. 27.

Further support for the bull case appears in institutional ownership. Institutions hold around 45% of the float, but inflows have outpaced outflows by roughly 3:1.

How to Approach PLTR Stock

From a technical perspective, the weekly chart suggests the recent move is not occurring in a vacuum. Before the headline-driven spike, the last few weekly candles showed signs of stabilization after the pullback, with buyers defending the area around the rising 50-week simple moving average near the mid‑$150s.

PLTR stock chart displaying three consecutive green candles prior to military operation against Iran.

That behavior often marks the early stages of a trend resumption rather than a one-off relief rally. Volume has begun to tick higher on up weeks, which can indicate institutions accumulating on weakness rather than distributing into strength.

The one missing ingredient is a confirmed shift in momentum: the weekly MACD remains negative and has not crossed above its signal line. Until that happens, investors should respect the possibility of continued volatility, even if the broader setup is beginning to favor the bulls.

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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