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Macroeconomic Strategist, The Oxford Club
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Here’s the whole time-sensitive story.
This Month’s Exclusive Content
Wall Street Loves FIGS—Why Do Price Targets Predict Pullback?
Submitted by Jennifer Ryan Woods. Article Published: 3/4/2026.
Key Points
- FIGS stock has surged nearly 260% over the past year, hitting a price not seen since shortly after its 2021 IPO.
- Q4 revenue topped $200 million—the company’s best quarter ever—with scrubwear sales up 35% and international sales jumping 55%.
- Despite the rally and bullish analyst commentary, the consensus price target sits almost 30% below current levels.
- Special Report: Every morning, an AI ranks 357 stocks for you (From TradingTips)
After a stunning plunge following its 2021 IPO, medical and lifestyle apparel company FIGS, Inc. (NYSE: FIGS) has roared back to life, trading at a price it hasn’t touched in nearly four years. The stock, currently above $17, has surged almost 260% over the past year, including a 58% spike in the last month alone.
The rally has been fueled by strong earnings reports and a wave of bullish analyst commentary. Yet despite the positive momentum, the consensus 12-month price target for the stock is just $12.25—almost 30% below its current price. This raises the question: how much of this recovery is supported by fundamentals, and how much is momentum? A closer look at FIGS’ history and recent results offers some clues.
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Early investors saw a quick windfall after the company’s IPO, which priced at $22 per share in May 2021 and climbed to $50 within a month. The COVID-19 pandemic helped drive demand for medical apparel, but as the pandemic eased, shares reversed sharply and, within 12 months, traded below $8. In the years that followed, FIGS mostly languished in the single digits. After dipping below $4 in April 2025, however, the stock began another upward move.
Earnings Momentum Sparks Rally
After steady gains following positive Q1 and Q2 2025 earnings reports, the Q3 2025 results, released on Nov. 6, sent the stock higher. The report showed stronger-than-expected revenue growth, solid demand across its core business and healthy margins despite tariff pressures.
The company also raised its full-year guidance for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins. Wall Street rewarded the outlook, pushing the stock up more than 30% over the following week and prompting Zacks Research to upgrade the shares to Strong Buy from Hold.
The momentum continued with the Q4 2025 earnings report released on Feb. 26. The quarter featured a 33% jump in revenue and marked the company’s best quarterly revenue to date, with sales topping $200 million. In its earnings call, the company — which outfitted Team USA’s medical team during the Winter Olympics — pointed to broad-based strength, including growth in its active customer base and higher average order values.
Scrubwear, FIGS’ core segment that accounted for more than three-quarters of net revenue, rose 35%. International sales accelerated as well, increasing 55%. The fourth quarter capped a strong year: full-year net revenue rose 14% year-over-year to a record $630 million. Despite tariff headwinds that pressured gross margins, profitability was solid, with the full-year adjusted EBITDA margin beating its target by more than 200 basis points.
Analysts Applaud Earnings and Outlook
FIGS issued an upbeat outlook for the year ahead, citing continued demand supported in part by growth in healthcare jobs. Management outlined plans to expand into new international markets, prioritize growth across its businesses and continue its stock buyback program.
For fiscal 2026, the company expects net revenue to grow 10% to 12%, with improved profitability targets.
Analysts followed with a flurry of positive notes after the earnings release. Barclays upgraded to Strong Buy from Hold, KeyCorp moved to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $17 price target, and Goldman Sachs shifted to Hold from Strong Sell. BTIG reiterated a Buy rating with a $15 target, and Telsey Advisory raised its target to $15 from $9.
FIGS Stock Pushes Past Price Targets
Strong earnings clearly drove the stock to four-year highs. Shares started climbing even before the Q4 report, jumping nearly 14% in the session ahead of the release. After the results, the rally accelerated: the stock surged 24% on the first trading day following the report and added another 10% the next day. As of March 4, the stock was trading above $17, more than double Morgan Stanley’s $8 target issued in January and above the $17 target set by KeyCorp.
The gap between bullish analyst sentiment and relatively modest price targets suggests analysts like FIGS’ improving fundamentals but remain cautious about valuation. At current levels, shares trade at a price-to-earnings ratio near 90, implying much of the company’s expected growth may already be priced in.
There are few publicly traded direct competitors to FIGS. By contrast, lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) — a dominant player in lifestyle apparel — trades at a P/E below 12 (compare stocks). The bottom line: investors are cheering the turnaround, but skepticism remains about whether the stock can sustain this ascent or is vulnerable to a pullback.
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