Ollie’s Rebound Confirms Key Support After Q4

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Ollie’s Stock Won’t Stay a Bargain Much Longer

Written by Thomas Hughes on March 15, 2026 

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet storefront with “Good Stuff Cheap” sign.

Key Points

  • Ollie’s Bargain Outlet posted strong revenue growth in Q4 despite slim misses on earnings and guidance, with both comp-store sales and store expansion outpacing expectations.
  • The Big Lots bankruptcy is creating a customer conversion opportunity that analysts believe has years left to play out—and isn’t yet reflected in the stock price.
  • Institutional investors own nearly all of the float and have been steady buyers, backing a company that funds its own growth and trades below every analyst’s target.
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Ollie’s Bargain Outlet’s (NASDAQ: OLLI) stock price downtrend is over. The Q4 2025 results are in, and they reaffirmed a robust outlook. Although the report was below the consensus forecast and guidance followed suit, the misses were slim, growth and outlook are robust, and the weakness wasn’t as unexpected as the consensus suggested. 

Analysts at RBC issued cautionary statements ahead of the release while highlighting the company’s position, aggressive expansion, and potential for outperformance in the coming years. In their view, the Big Lots bankruptcy and customer conversion to Ollie’s are multi-year events yet to play out, and it’s not priced into the stock.

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Ollie’s Outperforms Peers as Expansion Takes Hold

Ollie’s had a strong quarter despite revenue growth falling short of the consensus estimate. The company’s $779.26 million in net revenue is up 16.8% year-over-year, well ahead of competitors, underpinned by better-than-expected comp and store-count growth. The comp came in at 3.6%, slightly better than RBC’s forecast, while store count increased by 15.4%. 

Margin news is also solid despite falling short, with spending control and revenue leverage offsetting store opening expenses. Adjusted EPS missed the consensus by two cents, but the miss is slim, and earnings growth outpaced revenue by a narrow margin. Looking ahead, opening expenses are coming and should return to trend, providing visibility into margin and earnings quality improvements over the next two to three years. 

Guidance is likewise tepid relative to MarketBeat’s reported consensus, narrowly falling short of consensus, although expecting solid growth. As it stands, the company expects revenue in the range of $2.985 billion to $3.013 billion, with a midpoint just short of the $3 billion consensus, and an earnings midpoint of $4.45 versus $4.53 expected, which amounts to about 10% on the top line.

Ollie’s Cautious Guidance Sets Stage for Bullish Revision Cycle 

Among the opportunities for investors is the potential for cautious guidance, which is significant. Not only is there last year’s 15.4% store-count growth to consider, but the company plans to add another 11.6% in stores this year, and there are other tailwinds brewing. Analysts forecast potential for consumer tailwinds tied to tax season. Not only are returns being delivered, but the average check is more than 10% larger than last year, providing liquidity to Ollie’s consumer base. In this scenario, Ollie’s will outperform guidance, improve it as the year progresses, leading analysts into a similarly bullish cycle.

Ollie’s carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating with no Sell ratings among the 16 analysts tracked by MarketBeat. No revisions were issued immediately after the Q4 release, but several analysts commented, highlighting the growth potential and strength in loyalty members (up 12.1%), while expressing concern about future comparisons. Not all believe in the long-term strength of the Big Lots conversion, but the group is bullish on the stock price, forecasting an average upside of roughly 30%. Ollie’s stock trades below the low end of the analysts’ range in early March, underscoring the deep-value opportunity and potential for a rebound.

Institutions reveal the real opportunity, as they own almost 100% of this stock and buy on a quarterly basis. Reasons for them to own it include the fortress balance sheet, self-funded growth, growth outlook, and cash flow. The capital return potential adds another layer. 

The company doesn’t pay dividends, choosing to reinvest instead, but it does buy back shares in sufficient quantity to offset any dilution. The share count decline is incremental, but there, providing a base from which future returns can grow. Competitors and industry leaders such as TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) are well-known dividend and share-repurchase machines, a status Ollie’s is growing into. 

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Ollie’s Stock Price Bounces From Rock Bottom 

Ollie’s stock price hit rock bottom late in 2025, rebounded quickly, and retested the level again in early 2026. Following the guidance update, shares rose more than 5%, confirming support at this crucial level. This level is significant because it was a resistance target set in 2019 that was broken in early 2025 and is now confirmed as a new, strong support level for this market. The likely outcome is that this market will continue advancing in 2026, potentially accelerating the move as the year progresses. 

Ollie’s (OLLI) stock chart shows a strong bounce off prior long-term resistance turned support, signaling renewed momentum.

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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