Consumer Discretionary Is a Mirage

Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Blake knows his entire trading plan locked and loaded before the market ever opens.

He close out March up 29%, a solid month trading everything from the indexes to crude oil. Not too shabby considering the current market conditions.

Tomorrow at 1PM EST, he’s pulling back the curtain to show traders how he uses simple math techniques to create a sustainable edge.

It’ll change the way you look at trading forever.

Click Here to Add Blake’s 1PM Trading Event to your calendar

Don here…

Blake Young just exposed a major crack in the consumer discretionary rally. Tesla now accounts for 20% of the entire sector, and today’s 2.6% bounce is dragging XLY higher while the actual consumer stocks are falling apart.

Remove Tesla from XLY and the sector looks like Nike. Nike just dropped 14% after missing earnings by nearly 30%.

RH told the same story. It gapped down and fell 22%.

Blake dug into the XLY chart using his monkey bar levels for April. The ETF gapped up into the overbought zone with a ceiling at $111.13. His modified Chaikin money flow indicator still shows net liquidation underneath the surface.

The bounce has no volume behind it. Blake sees short covering, not accumulation.

Amazon faces the same problem. More than half of Amazon’s revenue comes from AWS. Calling it a consumer discretionary stock distorts what the sector is actually telling us about spending.

Blake walked through three bearish setups in tonight’s video that take advantage of the disconnect:

  • Tesla: Sell the call vertical above $395 for a $1.90 credit on a $5 wide spread. The probability of profit comes in at 64% against a required win rate of 62%, giving a 2% to 3% edge.
  • Starbucks: Sell the $93/$94 call vertical for $0.45 credit. The required win rate is just 55% against a 64% probability, creating a 9% edge.
  • Amazon: Sell the call vertical at $220 for $1.50 credit on a $5 wide spread. The setup is fairly priced, but a failure at the $215 target could accelerate the move lower.

Blake favors Tesla and Starbucks for the best reward to risk ratios. All three trades sell premium into a low volume bounce that his indicators say is running on fumes.

Click here to watch Blake break down the trade setups and the data behind his bearish consumer discretionary thesis

To your success,

Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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