Can This 6.5% Yielder Hang in There?

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General Mills: Can This 6.5% Yielder Hang in There?

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

We last looked at food maker General Mills(NYSE: GIS) in October.

At the time, the stock had a generous 4.9% yield. Today, the yield is 6.5% – and it’s not because the dividend has increased. The stock has been a disaster.

The 26% drop in the price of General Mills shares over the past six months has caused the yield to climb significantly higher. As a result, some investors may be willing to sit and wait while they collect that big dividend.

But is that dividend as reliable as a bowl of General Mills’ Cheerios?

In addition to the cereal that virtually every toddler in America has mushed into the couch, General Mills has many other household-name brands, like Betty Crocker, Cinnamon Toast Crunch, and Wheaties.

When I analyzed General Mills’ dividend safety in October, it received a “D” rating because free cash flow was falling.

The situation hasn’t gotten any better. In fact, it’s worse. It’s like expecting to be served Count Chocula and getting a heaping bowl of Raisin Nut Bran instead.

Folks just aren’t buying as much Green Giant, Lucky Charms, and Pillsbury as they used to. Revenue declined by half a billion dollars between fiscal 2023 and 2025. Wall Street expects sales to plummet even further from 2023’s peak of $20.1 billion to $18.4 billion in fiscal 2026 and to $18 billion in 2027.

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That drop is hurting free cash flow, which is the lifeblood of dividends.

Companies need to generate cash in order to pay shareholders.

Earnings are nice, and they help to support a stock’s price. But earnings include all kinds of noncash items, such as depreciation. Dividends are not paid out of earnings, but out of cash flow.

In 2025, free cash flow dropped from $2.5 billion to $2.3 billion. At the time I covered General Mills in October, free cash flow was forecast to decline to less than $2.2 billion in fiscal 2026. Today, that projection has fallen all the way to below $1.8 billion.

Last year, General Mills paid out 56.2% of its free cash flow in dividends. That’s fine. I’m good with anything below 75%.

This year, if the forecasts are correct, General Mills will be bumping right up against that threshold with a 74.1% payout ratio. It’s still okay, but it’s getting a bit close for comfort.View larger image

General Mills does have a good dividend-paying track record. It has paid shareholders a dividend for 128 years and has raised the dividend every year since 2021.

Is that enough to earn an upgrade from the Safety Net model?Finish Reading Here

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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