The CEO Called the Bottom. The Earnings Proved It. Now the Chart Is Confirming It.

Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist

“The CEO called the bottom. Earnings proved it.”

Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance 

Nate Bear

For three years, farmers pulled back.

Input costs ran too high, and commodity prices ran too low. The big green tractors sat on dealer lots.

Deere felt it all — full-year net income dropped 29% in fiscal 2025 as the agricultural downcycle ground through its core business.

Then, in December, CEO John May made a call: 2026 is the bottom.

The Earnings Made It Real

Calling the bottom is one thing. Proving it is another.

In February, Deere reported Q1 2026 earnings. The street expected continued weakness.

What they got: EPS of $2.42 against a $2.02 estimate, a 20% beat. Revenue of $9.61 billion against $7.59 billion expected, a 26% beat. The Construction and Forestry order bank rose more than 50% in a single quarter. Large tractor orders extended into Q4.

The stock gapped up 12% on the print. One quarter like that does not happen by accident. The story had changed.

Yesterday, a Wall Street analyst upgraded DE and cited the same thesis — the agricultural cycle may be nearing its bottom.

DE closed up +5%. The market is repricing this stock because the fundamentals continue to support the thesis.

What the Chart Is Saying

DE stock chart

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When fundamentals turn before mainstream notices, the chart catches it first. DE’s chart has been telling this story for weeks.

The 8-day EMA sits at $580. The 20-day EMA sits at $579. The 200-day SMA sits at $509. Yesterday, the price was around $608.

EMAs, or exponential moving averages, track a stock’s average closing price over a set period and give more weight to recent prices. When shorter EMAs sit above longer ones and all of them sit below the price, the trend is intact across every timeframe that matters.

The weekly EMAs are stacked, too. This trend has been building for months.

The Squeeze

After the February earnings gap, DE spent weeks compressing. The 8-day EMA and 20-day EMA pinched tight around $579-$580.

Price coiled above them. Volume dried up.

That is the squeeze. When price compresses between tightening moving averages, energy builds until it releases. When a squeeze fires on a stock with stacked EMAs and a strong fundamental story, that is the combination my system is designed to find.

The RSI read 62.

RSI, or Relative Strength Index, measures momentum on a scale of 0 to 100. Readings above 70 signal overbought. At 62, DE has room to run.

My system is called TPS — Trend, Pattern, Squeeze. I work through each step in order, and I do not enter until all three are confirmed and the trigger fires.

The setup is there, but given yesterday’s huge market move, I want to see how things play out today before making a decision.

Your Action Plan

Earnings winners with stacked EMAs and a fundamental catalyst behind them are exactly what I built Profit Surge Trader to find.

If you want to trade alongside that process, that is what Profit Surge Trader is for.

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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