Pain Trade Meets Geopolitical Risk

Friday, April 10, 2026

 The S&P closed flat. 90 stocks didn’t.

That’s the exact gap Jeff Bierman built the BURN SIGNAL to read, the names quietly setting up while the index masks what’s actually happening underneath.

CAT ran $26 in two days. GE dropped $20 in three. NFLX ran $14 in four. Zero headlines on any of them when the signal fired, just four criteria lining up on a quiet chart.

50 founding seats. The Live Masterclass on April 22is the hard cutoff, then the Burn Room closes.

👉 CLAIM A FOUNDING SEAT BEFORE THE NEXT SIGNAL FIRES

Don here…

The S&P 500 closed flat today. Underneath the surface, 90 products in the S&P 100 declined.

Broadcom single-handedly held the index together with a 3.5 standard deviation move, closing in on a $2 trillion market cap. Strip that out and the tape is red across the board.

I call this the pain trade meeting geopolitical risk. Shorts are getting squeezed in a face-ripping rally, but the volatility market is telling a completely different story.

The VVIX is sitting at 108. Anything near 110 is the “get under your desk” zone. Professional traders are refusing to give up their hedges heading into the weekend.

Consumer staples got crushed. Walmart dropped nearly 2% and Costco fell 3%. The safety trades that propped up portfolios during the selloff are fading fast.

Meanwhile, financials started rolling over right before earnings season begins. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan all report next week.

I have a bearish XLF position on right now. One strike in the money, one strike out of the money. The trade is working.

In tonight’s video, I break down the full picture and what I’m positioning for heading into earnings week:

  • The SPX expected move dropped from $167 to $123, still well above normal and signaling elevated risk ahead
  • Volatility futures are back in contango but the spread is dangerously tight
  • Oil is stuck dead center in its 85 to 110 conflict range, offering zero all-clear signal
  • SMH, the semiconductor ETF, is trading 2.5 standard deviations out in what I’m calling never-never land
  • Home builders broke the upper expected move this week, and I think they’re a prime short candidate

The pain trade can carry this market further. But the VVIX, volatility futures, and oil all say professionals are bracing for more turbulence.

Click here to watch me break down the pain trade, sector rotation, and what I’m trading into earnings week

To your success,

Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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