“War Has Caused Lasting Damage to the Dollar System”
- Cracks are forming in the dollar system…
- How to forearm yourself…
- CNBC called this new Elon Musk opportunity “the big market event of 2026.” The New York Times predicted it “will unleash gushers of cash for Silicon Valley and Wall Street.” And Elon Musk is predicting this investment could jump 1,000x higher from here.
Dear reader,
“War Has Caused Lasting Damage to the Dollar System”… so Bloomberg informs us.
Look merely, argues Bloomberg, to central bank gold holdings:
The US’s war with Iran has put a potentially irreversible strain on the global trading system, with gold reserves having eclipsed central bank holdings of valuation-adjusted dollar assets for the first time in several decades…
Dollar-denominated reserves — ie central bank holdings — adjusted for valuation effects are now lower than gold reserves for the first time since the International Monetary Fund started publishing the data in the late 1990s…
The market has re-alighted on the age-old solution of gold as unimpeachable global collateral — to the detriment of the US currency — after growing distrust in the dollar standard and a lack of viable alternatives to assets separate from the financial system.
‘Dollar Collapse? I’ve Heard It All Before’
How many years have calamity-howlers yelled and yelled about the “coming dollar collapse” or some such?
The answer is many, many years… even decades.
Bookshelves sag and groan beneath the impossible weight of writings warning of imminent dollar collapse.
I confess that my own bookcase harbors many of them. Some of these tomes I have even read.
Yet the dollar — by all accounts — has not collapsed.
Yet now such a mainstream financial publication as Bloomberg is observing the dollar system give and wobble.
Not collapse, mind you… but give way some… as the foundation of an old building may slip a bit.
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Cracks Are Forming
Here is evidence of forming fractures within the mortar:
Global trade in dollars has fallen to around 40% in the last few years while that in euros and the yuan has picked up… central bank holdings of Treasuries are now less than their holdings of gold; and the dollar as a share of global FX and gold central bank holdings is falling rapidly.
Yet here is the structural weak point where a fracture may expand to a crack — and a crack may expand to a potential fissure:
There’s a much deeper and long-lasting issue. The quid pro quo that forms the backbone of the global monetary system — that trade proceeds are recycled into dollar assets, allowing the US to fund cheaply, in return for security guarantees and the stability of the global system — can no longer be taken as read.
Normally we would expect that as the Strait of Hormuz is fully re-opened, dollars should eventually flow back to oil exporters, who in turn should buy Treasuries or other US assets…
That can no longer be assumed though. First, when it comes to Middle Eastern exporters such as Saudi Arabia, they have less excess savings to recycle as their economies diversify and invest more domestically.
Increasingly Grave Strain
Yet the dollar foundation itself is under threat at its base:
But it’s more critical than that. If the US is no longer seen as reliable a guarantor of stability and security, then there is a diminishing incentive to trade in dollars and recycle them back into the US. The dollar carousel that has underpinned the global monetary system is coming under increasingly grave strain.
Again, the dollar system will not come heaping down in a day, a week, a month or even a year.
It retains too many anchorings within the financial system. And the dollar retains greater structural integrity than any rival currency.
Yet the trend… the trend.
Concludes Bloomberg:
Common knowledge is often what it to takes to upset accepted norms and overturn ingrained thinking patterns. After the unilateral actions of the US in the Iran war, everyone now knows that everyone knows the rules of the game have changed.
Owning fewer dollar assets becomes increasingly logical. Now that is common knowledge, it’s hard not to see the dollar’s dominance continuing to ebb away over time, and gold’s fortunes further revived.
The Best Forearmament You Can Have
I have cited the analogy before — on several occasions in fact. Yet today I cite it once again.
How does a man descend into bankruptcy?
Gradually — then suddenly — in Mr. Hemingway’s famous telling.
And this formula, I hazard, is how the dollar collapses.
Gradually… then suddenly.
Alas, I cannot tell you when the transition from gradually to suddenly transpires.
Yet I do know that being forewarned is being forearmed.
And gold is likely the mightiest forearmament you can wield.
Brian Maher
for Freedom Financial News
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