Like ‘Playing Basketball Against Short People’

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Stansberry Digest

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A conversation with Gabe Marshank… How to make money from basic economics… Be ‘right and unlucky’… The AI power boom… The price that needs to go higher… A company well positioned to profit… Learn more here


Editor’s note: In today’s Digest, we’re taking a break from the daily news on Iran, inflation, and AI to bring you a special Q&A that our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk recently had with Stansberry Research senior analyst and Market Maven editor Gabe Marshank…

Before joining Stansberry Research a few years ago, Gabe spent nearly 30 years at the top of the hedge-fund world.

He worked alongside folks like Leon Cooperman at Omega Advisors, David Einhorn at Greenlight Capital, and Steve Cohen at SAC Capital, helping generate hundreds of millions in gains for some of the most demanding investors alive.

Now, he puts his skills and investing experience to work for Stansberry Research subscribers…

In this conversation – pulled from our weekly Top Stocks show on YouTube and edited for length and clarity – Gabe joined Matt to talk about how he thinks about markets… why an overlooked energy story is bigger than most people realize (it has to do with the longer-term story about AI)… and one of his favorite stocks to play this story.

I (Corey McLaughlin) hope you enjoy… and if you’re interested in learning more about Gabe’s investment thesis about energy in America, he recently laid out all the details in a free presentation. More on that at the end of today’s issue…


Why you can ignore Wall Street’s obsessions…

Matt Weinschenk: Gabe, you’ve had this very specific investing niche throughout your career where you found huge opportunities in the industrial and commodity markets. Why there?

Gabe Marshank: I started from the principle that I could work harder, or I could work smarter. In 1997, when I was at Omega, all these tech guys were running everywhere trying to chase everything. It was kind of the beginning of the dot-com boom. And everyone was trying to tell me how an OC-192 self-healing ring worked [in network connections]. I didn’t want to do that. It seemed too hard. But if I went and looked at industries that nobody else was following, there was nobody else following them. It’s like playing basketball against short people. I’d rather do that than try to go against the toughest guy on the playground.

What I found is that a lot of the best hedge-fund managers have come out of cyclical and industrial industries, because it forces a real grounding in economics, and if you get the economics right in these industries, you can make a lot of money. And the thing I’ve always focused on – always, always, always – is what’s happening on the supply side. Because what you find on Wall Street is economists sitting there looking at a crystal ball saying, “I think GDP is going to grow 3.4% this year, not 3.3%.” Who cares? If you have a situation where the supply of iron ore could go up by 10%, why does it matter whether Japan grows at 3.3% or 3.4%? So I’ve always focused on supply, and that has been the way I’ve gotten into a lot of profitable trades.

Matt: Give us a classic example – a supply story that played out exactly the way you’d expect.

Gabe: Coal is a good one. Utilities were phasing out their old coal plants. Some of it was driven by environmental regulations, but a lot of it was just that these plants were getting to the end of their useful life, getting more expensive to run. Demand started falling, and it fell continuously until last year. And the stock market said, “Nobody’s ever going to use coal again.” The stocks went down a ton. They lost access to capital. Companies had to close mines. And all of a sudden, out of nowhere, you got this supply crunch.

You could just look at where supply was going versus where demand was. You knew the market was going to be undersupplied. Sure enough, coal prices more than doubled. These stocks went absolutely ballistic. I have a friend who took the money he made on that trade and bought a villa in central Italy we now call Domaine Appalachia.

Matt: So it was a function of there being certain things in the world that you can only make more of with a huge investment in a long time frame… How do you apply that same thinking when you’re looking at any stock, not just a commodity?

Gabe: The first thing I’ve ever told any analyst who has come to work with me is that it doesn’t start with stocks. It starts with companies. And companies start with their actual business model, and it’s something a lot of people forget. Just ask yourself, “How does this company make money?”

Here’s a great example: British Airways. You’d probably say it makes money flying planes around. But if you really look, British Airways makes money by operating premium cabin service – business class and first class from New York to London. That’s it. That’s 100% of its profits. The rest of the network is there to feed [that one route]…

And one of the things I love is when you find an idea and you say to yourself, “If I get this one thing right, I get paid.” Because you always want to look back and ask, “If the stock goes up, was I right, or was I lucky? If the stock goes down, was I unlucky, or was I dumb?” You want to be in the “right and unlucky” camp. You never want to be “lucky and dumb.”

The AI power boom…

Matt: Let’s get into the big story you’ve been focused on. People have seen the headlines about AI power demand… Everyone’s saying their power bill is going up. It’s on the front page. How can this story not already be priced in the market?

Gabe: In most cyclical industries, it takes a couple of years to open a new mine or new factory. Electricity is regulated. It has to be – it’s literally a matter of life and death. If there isn’t enough reserve capacity, bad things happen. You can get a blackout like the Northeast had in 2004. You can get a hospital without power for lifesaving equipment. What complicates it is that our system in the U.S. is incredibly complex.

You’ve got regional grid operators and regional transmission organizations. There are organizations you probably have never heard of, but you might have heard of ERCOT [the Electric Reliability Council of Texas]. These are the guys who oversaw the Texas grid when it went down during Winter Storm Uri. PJM Interconnection is the one out here in [the mid-Atlantic] that operates the largest grid in America… They’ve all got to tie in together… and you have this huge mishmash of regulatory interference at the federal and state levels… It’s a mess.

So unlike most cyclical industries, where some people say, “Hey, I want to flip the switch,” you can’t do that in energy and power… It can take as much as eight years for a new facility to come on.

And on top of that, we had a bad lesson to unlearn. Back in 2000 or 2001, you had the California energy crisis. We had overbuilt. Those were the Enron days. The whole industry went into restructuring. Capital never really came back. Nobody ever said, “I want to invest in utilities.” One guy was investing in utilities – Warren Buffett. And that should tell you how little supply was coming on… So the backdrop going into the AI era was an industry that was wildly underinvested. And I can’t emphasize how critical that is. People thought demand was going to be flat forever.

We were tracking right along the path where electricity intensity – the amount of electricity it takes to produce a dollar of gross domestic product (“GDP”) – was expected to decline. That’s what happened in Japan, and there was every reason to believe we were heading in the same direction.

And then one day ChatGPT came along and turned it all on its head. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say this is one of the most seminal events in at least modern economic history. And it was so electrically intense that demand went from well below GDP growth to this accelerating spike. At the same time, supply hadn’t caught up.

Matt: This won’t be fixed next year or the following year. You’ve got a view that over the next five or 10 years we are going to be short on power?

Gabe: Well, I don’t have the view. The market has the view… That’s one of the things that’s part of my framework – listen to what the market is giving me… If you look right now, Nvidia (NVDA) is breaking out to new highs. That’s an astonishing thing to say. You have the world’s largest company adding hundreds of billions of dollars of market cap in a day.

The hyperscalers – Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), and so forth – are going to spend $600 billion in capital expenditures (“capex”) this year. About nine months ago, that number was $400 billion.

Matt: There was a time when there was a big capex announcement, and the stocks would go up. And then there was a time when there was a big capex announcement, and the reaction started to get muted. But now it has gone back to big capex [meaning] big stock moves like these are being highly approved by the market.

Gabe: That’s right, the market is approving this spending. It’s saying these companies can earn a return. Now, I’m deeply skeptical over whether these companies can earn a return. In fact, I doubt that OpenAI will ever earn a return… Because the fact is that Claude got invented not out of thin air but with just a bunch of money getting poured into the ground, and it was able to take away OpenAI’s business.

But I don’t have to make that bet, right? I don’t have to be the one who’s deciding if the money is going to make sense, because I can own the companies where they’re spending the money.

What has gotten left behind…

Matt: OK, so as you follow this value chain, what’s the answer to keep our power grid going?

Gabe: If you’re listening to what the market is telling you, GE Vernova (GEV) – the biggest U.S.-based turbine manufacturer – went from $100 to $400 in a year… Quanta Services (PWR), which is the company that puts in long-haul transmission lines, went from $300 to $630. These are not small companies. But they’re telling you something is really moving.

The [thing] that has gotten left behind is natural gas. Natural gas is the critical swing fuel in the U.S. energy stack… At the baseload, you have the stuff that runs all the time. That’s nuclear, hydro, a lot of the old coal facilities. Then you have solar and wind, which are fine when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing, but you can’t predict when they run.

You need something that can act as a swing producer, and that’s natural gas. It’s very efficient, it’s much cleaner than coal, and it’s a lot easier to put up… Liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) is a technology that has been around for a long time but is kind of getting going in real time. I see LNG capacity following the same path that we saw with U.S. onshore drilling. And you’ve now got a second demand driver, which is the LNG export market…

New nuclear is the only real alternative, and that’s basically a generational project…

Matt: But the technology with LNG is settled. We know how to build a natural gas plant. They [can build] them on a scale sometimes that can actually be at the data centers.

Gabe: But despite two enormous demand drivers ‒ new domestic power generation and a booming LNG export market – natural gas prices are still near historic lows. Historically, there’s a 6-to-1 ratio in terms of pricing with oil. If oil is at $90, oil-equivalency math says gas should be trading around $15. It’s at $3.

At some point, that has got to end. You can’t have a free commodity forever. It’s going to be valued at what it’s worth… and that’s going to be an incentive [for companies to get more gas]. The market is going to find a way to get more gas.

A stock worth knowing about…

Matt: If you like this natural gas thesis, why don’t you tell us about your favorite investments to play it?

Gabe: Again, what I find really easy is supply and demand. My old boss at Pequot Capital Management, Art Samberg, rest his soul, used to say the best management is excess demand… I wanted to find the lowest-cost producer of natural gas. That’s Antero Resources (AR). It’s actually headquartered in Denver, with assets in the Marcellus Shale… That’s mostly in West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania… right next to “Data-Center Alley” in Virginia. It has very, very big wells, is very focused on keeping operational costs low, and has access to a pipeline system that gets its gas out for a very low cost. These guys are incredibly well positioned.

Matt: They have about an $11 billion market cap on $800 million of free cash, call it 10 times free cash flow. But with natural gas at $2.50 [per million British thermal units (“MMBtu”)], they make about $1 billion more in free cash flow for every dollar that natural gas goes up. So if natural gas goes to $5 or $6 MMBtu, [Antero] is going to have $5 billion or $6 billion of free cash flow and be trading at 5 times, which is remarkable… if you put a forward multiple on that.

Gabe: It’s really as simple as that… Keep it simple, stupid. It shouldn’t take you all the work in the world to arrive at a really simple and obvious answer – and that’s it… If you’re bullish on natural gas, you can be bullish on Antero Resources.


Editor’s note: Before Gabe buys any stock, he asks himself one thing: “What is the single thing I need to get right to make money?”

If you can answer it clearly, you understand the investment. If you can’t, you’re relying on luck. For Antero Resources, the answer is the price of natural gas. For British Airways, it’s one transatlantic route in business class.

The simpler the answer, the better your chances of knowing whether you’re right or wrong about an investment… or are simply leaving things up to chance…

This is the same discipline Gabe used on Wall Street. Now, he’s applying it for you… including with the AI story…

As Gabe says, “The best AI businesses probably haven’t been invented yet. What we want to figure out is the path from here to there – and right now, that path runs through power.”

Stansberry Alliance members and Gabe’s Market Maven subscribers already have the details laid out here.

But if you don’t have access to Gabe’s research yet, he goes much deeper on all of this in a new free presentation – including more stocks up and down the power value chain… and the full case for why he thinks this story has years left to run.

If you’re interested in learning more, watch here.


Recommended Links:

‘Five-Alarm Fire’ Alert: The Man Who Spotted TWO $100 Million Trades Is Back

Gabe Marshank – who made $100 million in profits TWICE by spotting this exact setup before – says the same signal is flashing again. He says the biggest gains could come to those who make one straightforward move before June 1.Instead of briefing billionaire hedge-fund owners, he’s going public (for only the second time ever). Click here now to see his urgent free presentation.


Elon Musk’s New ‘Secret Weapon’ for AI

Did Elon Musk just solve Silicon Valley’s biggest problem? Recently, he quietly deployed something in Memphis, Tennessee that reshaped the next phase of the AI boom – and tech giants like Microsoft, OpenAI, and Alphabet are scrambling to follow his lead. Most people still don’t know about this “secret weapon,” but it could determine the next winners and losers in AI.


New 52-week highs (as of 5/12/26): Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), BHP (BHP), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), British American Tobacco (BTI), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Healthpeak Properties (DOC), Fanuc (FANUY), W.W. Grainger (GWW), KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index Fund (KBA), Nvidia (NVDA), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), Starbucks (SBUX), USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund (SDCI), Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS), SSR Mining (SSRM), and UnitedHealth (UNH).

In today’s mailbag, continued discussion on the war in Iran and thoughts on interest rates (we wrote yesterday that Federal Reserve rate hikes are back on the table)… Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

“Re: Tim L’s comments on the state of the world [in yesterday’s mail]… The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps needs to go. They have fomented violence for nearly five decades… Trump needs to continue pressuring them until they are thrown out.” – Subscriber Mike M.

“Why not reduce rates? Go against the normal expectation… We are in a different economy full of tech and innovation. Rate hikes will stifle the growth while a rate reduction would stimulate the housing and other sectors. In my opinion, a rate reduction would only add to the economic boom. Inflation be damned! Inflation can be overcome by [the] incredible advantages that come with a reduction in rates.” – Subscriber Alan F.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin with Matt Weinschenk and Gabe Marshank
Baltimore, Maryland
May 13, 2026


Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations

Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT
Microsoft11/11/101,361.0%Retirement MillionaireMSFT
Microsoft02/10/121,316.3%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryCIEN
Ciena10/20/22900.7%Stansberry Innovations ReportGOOGL
Alphabet12/15/16854.1%Retirement MillionaireADP
Automatic Data Processing10/09/08825.3%Extreme ValueBRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09776.5%Retirement MillionaireALS-T
Altius Minerals03/26/09755.7%Extreme ValueSII
Sprott01/11/18682.5%Extreme ValueLITE
Lumentum04/15/21625.1%Stansberry Innovations ReportWRB
W.R. Berkley03/15/12618.5%Stansberry’s Investment Advisory

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.


Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc2Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel2Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter


Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations

Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationBTC/USD
Bitcoin11/27/182,074.5%Crypto CapitalWSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,900.5%Crypto CapitalONE/USD
Harmony12/16/191,012.3%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD
Polygon02/26/21644.2%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21403.6%Crypto Capital

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.


Stansberry Research Hall of Fame

Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.

^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.


Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame

Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital

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Your Night Prayer

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A Night Prayer

Jesus Christ, my God, I adore You and thank You for all the graces You have given me this day. I offer You my sleep and all the moments of this night. I place myself and all my loved ones, wherever they may be, in Your sacred side and under the mantle of Our Blessed Mother. Let Your holy angels stand watch and keep us in peace. Amen.

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“Pray, pray a great deal and make sacrifices for sinners, for many souls go to Hell because they have no-one to make sacrifices and pray for them.” -Our Lady of Fatima 

Holy Silence: A Practical Guide To Recollection In God

Today’s Meditation

“Jesus fled from the enthusiastic crowd after He had miraculously multiplied loaves and fish. The people excitedly pursued Him to make Him king, and He literally headed for the hills. When they finally tracked Him down on the other side of the Sea of Galilee, He did not encourage their enthusiasm. Instead, He practically threw a bucket of water of cold water on them by exhorting them to faith and by telling them about the Mystery of Faith, the holy Eucharist. They enthusiastically sought earthly bread, and Jesus soberly instructed them about the Bread that gives eternal life. Empty enthusiasm is like sand, which shifts with the wind. Supernatural faith is a solid rock, which is not shaken but stands forever. Supernatural faith is a solid rock, which is not shaken but stands forever. Jesus addressed them in faith, and their enthusiasm quickly disappeared. Our faith cannot be initiated through the emotions, much less founded upon them.” —Fr. Basil Nortz, ORC, p. 97

An excerpt from Holy Silence: A Practical Guide To Recollection In God

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Examination of Conscience

The daily examination of conscience is an ancient Catholic practice. It’s very simple, and it’s designed to help us identify our sins and weaknesses so that we can improve and grow stronger in the spiritual life, while providing an excellent ongoing preparation for regular Confession. It consists of taking a few minutes at the end of the day to prayerfully review our actions in the light of God’s commandments, followed by the Act of Contrition.

 Reflect on the victories and losses

Actively reflecting on the high and low points of the day can help you live more intentionally and bring a renewed sense of resolve into the following day.

  • Review your actions, words, and thoughts today. Did you actively guard yourself against temptation? Where did sin creep in?
  • In what moments did you practice virtue and moral courage?
  • Were you attuned to the Holy Spirit’s promptings today? Where did you feel His inspiration?
  • Ask Him for the graces necessary to follow His Will more purposefully tomorrow.

 Act of Contrition

O my God, I am heartily sorry for having offended Thee, and I detest all my sins because of Thy just punishments, but most of all because they offend Thee, my God, Who art all good and deserving of all my love. I firmly resolve with the help of Thy grace to sin no more and to avoid the near occasions of sin. Amen.

 Practice gratitude

It is God’s love that has brought you into existence and to this exact moment. Practice looking for His hand in your day. 

  • Where did you feel His loving gaze upon you today?
  • What people or moments helped you see God in your life?
  • Thank God for all these moments!
  • Ask Him to help you recognize His blessings and providence tomorrow.

 Renew your commitment to Christ

Remember: our Faith is founded upon a Person—Christ! Renew your personal love and devotion to Him.

  • Thank God for the gift of His Son Jesus and our call to be His disciples.
  • Tell the Lord of your desire to know Christ more personally.
  • If possible, set an intention for your day tomorrow. Ask Our Lord to guide you in this act.
  • Pray a Hail Mary, Our Father, or another beloved prayer.

Rest with God

He determines the number of the stars, He gives to all of them their names. — Psalm 147:4

Compline

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VWAV is building a platform for the next era of warfare

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A New Kind of Defense Company is Blending AI, Autonomous Systems, and Advanced Sensing to Target Tomorrow’s Battlefield— Learn Why Investors Are Starting to Put VWAV on Their Radar as Global Conflict Accelerates!

VisionWave Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: VWAV)is emerging as a unique player in today’s rapidly evolving defense landscape. As global tensions rise—particularly involving Iran—modern warfare is shifting toward drones, missile defense systems, and AI-powered intelligence.

VWAV is building a multi-domain platform that combines RF sensing, artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and advanced computing into one integrated architecture. Rather than focusing on a single niche, the company is aligning itself with the full ecosystem of next-generation defense technologies!

At the same time, NASDAQ small cap VWAV is taking steps to expand its real-world footprint. Its planned acquisition of a majority stake in an Israeli aerospace manufacturer tied to active missile defense systems,along with the launch of an Israeli subsidiary and global expansion efforts, signals a move toward deeper integration in defense supply chains.

With additional initiatives in energy and subsurface sensing, the company is positioning itself beyond traditional defense into broader intelligence markets. As nations scramble to counter drone swarms and missile threats, companies like VWAV are no longer optional—they’re becoming mission-critical.

Discover Why VWAV is Starting to Turn Heads on Wall Street as it Builds a Platform Designed for the Next Era of Conflict


Just For You

Manic Monday.com: The Rally Is Just the Beginning for this SaaS Leader

Reported by Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 5/11/2026. 

Monday.com logo displayed beside a tablet showing a project management dashboard on a desk.

Key Points

  • Monday.com provides another reason to buy into the SaaS sell-off; AI disruption has been good for business.
  • Cash flow and capital returns are part of the thesis, providing significant leverage for investors.
  • High short interest and institutional buying point to shifting market dynamics, with shorts likely covering in May.
  • Special ReportThe #1 stock to buy BEFORE the June S-1 filing (From Behind the Markets)

Monday.com’s (NASDAQ: MNDY) manic Monday, May 11 rally is another sign that AI disruption may not be all it’s cracked up to be. While AI threatens the software landscape, it is still in its early stages, often wrong, and unlikely to disrupt established platformsthat are, themselves, integrating AI into their architecture and services.

The takeaway is that stocks like Monday.comare deeply undervalued relative to forecasts that continue to prove too low, and they appear set to sustain upward momentum over the coming quarters.

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MNDY stock advanced 25% in early premarket trading following its release, underscoring the strength of the market’s response. The move not only revealed buyers at a critical support level, a long-term low dating back to 2022, but also effectively closed a gap formed earlier in the year. Combined with bullish setups in the stochastic and MACD indicators, the move shows that market dynamics have shifted.

MNDY in rebound mode.

That shift is from distribution to accumulation. While institutions have bought this stock semi-aggressively over the trailing 12 months, short-sellers have been selling into the market, driving it lower. Short interest as a percentage of the float hit a multiyear high ahead of the release, setting the stage for a short-covering rally to amplify the upside. The question is whether the shorts can cover quickly enough, or whether a squeeze will ensue. Either way, with shorts converging and institutions accumulating, this market has little choice but to reverse course and trend higher over time.

Analyst trends also align with the potential for a robust rebound and sustained upside in this stock. While this group aggressively reduced price targets in early 2026, sentiment remains firmly pegged at Moderate Buy, with a 71% Buy-side bias and substantial upside to the consensus target. Although price target revisions are trending toward the lower end, the floor is set at $80, just above the critical support level, and most price targets place this market in the $90 to $130 range. The opportunity is for analysts to begin raising price targets again, reinvigorating retail sentiment and restoring confidence in the consensus target, which could lift shares above that level.

AI Disruption Is Good for Monday.com Business, Inside and Out

Monday.com delivered a solid Q1 earnings report, further solidifying its position in the enterprise AI ecosystem. The company produced $351.3 million in Q1 net revenue, up 24.4% year over year and 360 basis points (bps) better than expected, driven by strength across all business sizes, including new and existing clients.

Internal metrics, including net retention rate, new clients, and revenue per share, showed not only strength but also an accelerating business, with penetration up 110% year over year (YOY), driven by larger clients. Breaking it down, clients contributing more than $50,000 in annual recurring revenue grew their contribution by 116%, while those contributing more than $100,000 grew theirs by 115%. In terms of client count, those two highest tiers grew by 32% and 39%, respectively.

Margin news was also solid. The company’s improving revenue leverage and internal operations offset the impacts of cost pressures and currency headwinds, resulting in a flat adjusted operating margin compared with last year. The critical takeaway is that the company is profitable, has ample free cash flow, and significantly outperformed expectations. The $1.15 in adjusted earnings per share beat MarketBeat’s consensus figure by more than 2,000 bps, making the case that the company’s forward guidance is likely to be cautious.

That cautious guidance is bullish for this market. Executives expect revenue growth to slow to 18.5% in Q2 as comps become more difficult and to sustain a steady high-teens pace through year-end, with revenue slightly better than expected. The likely outcome is that Monday.com continues to perform well, outpacing guidance and improving its outlook again in the upcoming quarters.

Monday.com: A Balance Sheet to Envy

Monday.com’s balance sheet offers no red flags for investors, only reasons to own the stock. The Q1 highlights include reduced cash and equity, but this was offset by a robust share repurchase program, which reduced the average share count by nearly 8%. Other positives include an ample cash balance of just under $1 billion and low leverage. Long-term debt is virtually nonexistent, and the company is net cash relative to its total liabilities. In this scenario, Monday.com can continue executing its strategy and build on the Q1 momentum.


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What This Stodgy Chipmaker’s Surge Says About the AI Boom

Managing Editor’s Note: You’ve been hearing more from our friend and colleague Jason Bodner in these pages lately.

Well now, Jason and Jeff have an urgent message… a radical shift in the market is coming, and it’s coming soon.

These sorts of “regime changes” have happened three times in the past decade. Each one saw top stocks displaced by a new group of stocks that rose to prominence as the new regime took root.

Jason was a senior executive and partner on Wall Street during previous regime changes and saw up close which types of stocks soar in these times. And now, he’s reverse-engineered a way for everyday folks to get ahead of these big moves, too… while avoiding the losers.

He and Jeff are airing the details next Wednesday, May 20, at 8 p.m. ET. You can go here to sign up with one click to join them.

We’ll have more for you tomorrow from Jason. Until then, read on for today’s issue from Near Future Report senior analyst Nick Rokke on where we should be focusing our attention at this point in the artificial intelligence boom…

What This Stodgy Chipmaker’s Surge Says About the AI Boom

Nick Rokke

Nick Rokke

Senior Analyst


For years Intel was dead money…

Investors exiled the company as it missed the boom in wireless devices, lost its ability to manufacture bleeding edge semiconductors, and lost its lead as the top provider of server CPUs.

It stood by and watched NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) become the face of the AI revolution.

But the AI infrastructure buildout did something no one expected… The extraordinary levels of infrastructure spending meant that NVIDIA, AMD, and other semiconductors companies could sell all the processors they could manufacture.

That left data center operators, enterprises, and even consumers looking to buy Intel (INTC) central processing units (CPUs), even if they were significantly lagging in performance behind AMD. They are buying all they can from AMD, and what they can’t get from AMD, they are picking up from Intel simply because there is no other choice.

So then, Intel shares surged. From March 30 until this afternoon, shares rose from $41.19 to $121.85. That’s a 196% gain in roughly six weeks for one of the oldest, most scrutinized semiconductor companies in the world, that has demonstrated one misstep and disappointment after the other for more than a decade.

Intel is a steady, stable business with decades of operating history. These kinds of businesses aren’t supposed to nearly triple in a year, let alone just over a month. This is especially true for Intel, a company that failed so badly at its own manufacturing that it has to hire TSMC to produce its best chips.

This odd situation is a clear indication that the market is realizing that AI infrastructure demand is spreading across the entire semiconductor chain… And to all companies along that chain.

We’re seeing surging demand for CPUs, GPUs, ASICs, high bandwidth memory (HBM), networking, optical interconnects, and power conducting semiconductors.

The AI boom may have started with GPUs, but it is no longer the end all, be all.

Semis on the Rise

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX) delivered a historic run, rising every single trading day from March 31 through April 24. That’s 18 consecutive sessions higher. And across the full month of April, it closed higher in 19 out of 21 trading days.

The Near Future Report portfolio had four companies that gained over 60% on the month… And the entire portfolio gained 24% in April… in a single month. That’s an exceptional outcome and exactly what happens when we position ourselves properly in front of major technological shifts.

And the Semiconductor Index isn’t done yet. After climbing 40% in April, it’s up another 16% so far in May.

After a move like this, many people are asking themselves one question…

image
image

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Can This Move Continue?

In short, the answer is yes.

From a technical perspective, the sector is clearly extended to the upside. Using the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) as a proxy, the relative strength index (RSI) is approaching levels that have historically marked overbought conditions. In past cycles, SOXX has tended to peak when RSI reaches the high 70s.

But “overbought” is often misunderstood. In strong secular trends, assets can remain overbought for extended periods of time.

In fact, looking at prior cycles, once SOXX reaches these elevated RSI levels, it often continues to move higher for months, and in some cases more than a year. We’re only about six months into the current overbought window, which suggests the trend is not over yet.

Here’s a chart I shared with Near Future Report subscribers last week.

Now let’s turn to the fundamentals.

The world is in the middle of the largest infrastructure buildout in modern history, driven by the growth in artificial intelligence. This shift is creating an insatiable demand for compute, and that compute requires semiconductors at a scale the industry has never seen before.

The constraint today isn’t demand, it’s supply. The world simply cannot produce enough advanced chips to keep up.

We’ve talked about the increase in spending of the hyperscalers. And every quarterly earnings report comes with increased capital expenditures (capex) to build these large data centers to meet surging customer demand.

This past quarter, Microsoft laid out plans that implied they would raise their planned capex spend on the year from $140 billion to $190 billion. Meta’s raised its capex from a midpoint of $125 billion to $135 billion with a high-end forecast as much as $145 billion.

And both Amazon and Google raised their planned spend by $5 billion. And Google management took a step further and said that they expect their 2027 capex to increase significantly from the planned $185 billion spent this year.

Critics argue that this level of spending will eventually lead to excess capacity and poor returns. But that view ignores what’s happening on the ground. Even with hundreds of billions of dollars being deployed, there still isn’t enough compute to meet demand.

Just this past month, we saw GitHub pause its new Copilot Pro trials because they didn’t have enough compute to support additional users. OpenAI scaled back the rollout of its Sora video generation app to free up resources. And Anthropic has faced repeated outages with its Claude Code product as it actively rations compute during peak demand periods. This was the reason that Anthropic struck the deal with SpaceXAI to lease the computational resources of its Colossus 1 data center.

The Rise of the Agents

And the primary driver behind this surge in demand is what Jeff highlighted earlier – the rapid rise of agentic AI.

This is a fundamental shift in how software is built and how work gets done. A single skilled programmer can now deploy a team of AI agents to generate code, test features, and iterate rapidly. The human role is increasingly shifting toward supervision and validation rather than creation from scratch.

We already see AI writing the majority of new code. Google has indicated that roughly 75% of its new code is now generated by AI. Snap and Meta Platforms are both reporting figures around 65%. And Kevin Scott, an executive vice president at Microsoft, has stated that he expects that number to reach 95% within five years.

What’s happening in software development today is just the beginning. This trend will expand into every knowledge-based industry. And as it does, it will reshape the underlying hardware requirements.

And this is the main reason behind Intel’s sudden rise… And why AMD has delivered Near Future Report subscribers another double in the past six weeks.

Historically, AI training workloads required far more GPUs than CPUs. Commonly eight GPUs for every CPU. But with the rise of agentic inference, that dynamic is shifting toward parity. In many cases, we’re moving closer to a 1-to-1 ratio between GPUs and CPUs, which has major implications for demand across the semiconductor stack.

This means CPU demand will rise sharply alongside GPUs, expanding the opportunity set across the semiconductor landscape.

As the market begins to understand how AI workloads are evolving, capital is quickly rotating toward the companies best positioned to capture that demand.

When trends shift in artificial intelligence, markets don’t wait. The repricing happens quickly, and often before the broader investment community fully understands what’s taking place. That’s why our strategy is to identify these inflection points early and position accordingly.

Even after the strong gains we’ve seen this past month, we remain in the early stages of this cycle.

AI is just beginning to move from experimentation into real-world deployment. As it becomes embedded across industries, it will drive meaningful productivity gains – from software to robotics to industrial automation. We’re already seeing the first signs of that shift, and it will broaden from here.

The biggest returns won’t come from chasing what’s obvious today. They will come from owning the companies building the infrastructure and enabling these capabilities before the market fully appreciates their impact.

That’s where we remain focused.

Regards,

Nick Rokke
Senior Analyst, The Bleeding Edge

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While the Market Lost Its Mind, We Got Paid

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“When the macro picture is this confused, betting on direction is gambling. We don’t do that here.””

Bryan Bottarelli, Co-Founder, Monument Traders Alliance 

Bryan Bottarelli

Dear Reader,

There are a lot of head-scratchers in this market right now.

High oil prices, rising inflation, weakness in half the Mag Seven, and a consumer that’s running out of money by the end of the month, according to Kraft Heinz’s CEO.

And yet, if you look up at the scoreboard, the S&P 500 is still near all-time highs.

When so many things don’t add up, you have to be cautious.

Especially when you’re viewing the market through a long-term investor’s lens.

Which is exactly why this is the perfect market to be trading non-correlated strategies, the kind that don’t get blown up by a hot economic release or a Trump tweet.

The kind of trades that make their money in a window of time so short the macro chaos doesn’t even matter.

Today Was a Prime Example

PPI dropped to 1.4% at 8:30 this morning, versus 0.5% expected. That’s the hottest monthly print since March 2022. Annual PPI now sits at 6%, the highest since December 2022. Core PPI came in at 1% against a 0.4% forecast.

The futures rally evaporated. The market reversed and went red. The financial media started running their “is the rally over?” segments before the open even hit.

And while all that was happening, I was focused on something else entirely…

I was selling my ORCL calls.

The Trade

Yesterday, during the broader sell-off, Oracle (ORCL) dropped enough to trigger my Stock Flip system. The stock fell 4.2% to close at $186.65, which cleared our 3.5% trigger threshold on ORCL.

That’s the setup we hunt every single day at 3:30 PM ET. A high-quality, large-cap name overreacts to the downside. The setup hits the trigger. The trade goes in.

We bought the ORCL May 15th $182.50 calls for $6.13 in premium at yesterday’s close.

This morning, with PPI ripping the futures lower and most traders running for cover, ORCL still opened higher. Why? Because yesterday’s drop was emotion, not fundamentals. Mean reversion did exactly what it always does on these names.

We sold the calls this morning for $8.75 in premium.

That’s a 42.7% gain in less than 24 hourson a trade that was completely insulated from the hot PPI print, the futures reversal, and whatever the Fed says next.

As always, we share the love. Check out what a few Stock Flip Scanner members had to say:

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Why This Strategy Works Right Now

Here’s the thing most traders are missing: when the macro picture is this confused, betting on direction is gambling.

You don’t know if today’s hot PPI means rate hikes are back, whether the consumer is really breaking the way Whirlpool suggests, or what the Fed will do at the next meeting.

But here’s the beauty… You don’t have to know.

The Stock Flip system doesn’t care about any of that. It looks for one specific thing: a top-30 large-cap name overreacting to the downside on a single session, with a customized trigger percentage tuned to that stock’s volatility profile.

When the trigger hits, we buy short-dated calls before the close. We hold overnight. We sell on the open when mean reversion delivers.

Yesterday’s ORCL was a textbook flip. The system works because human emotion in the market hasn’t changed in 50 years… and it isn’t about to start changing tomorrow.

If you’re set on betting blind, you’d be better off taking the Over on Shohei Ohtani’s strikeout line vs the Giants tonight (6.5 if you were wondering).Logo

YOUR ACTION PLAN

If you want to see the complete 30-stock universe, the custom triggers for each name, and the exact step-by-step playbook I use to run this strategy myself, stay tuned for a full Overnight Stock Flip Blueprint PLUS plenty of other action we’ll have for you soon…

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Click here to watch nowMonument Traders Alliance

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Better slump breaker: Ice Cube or hot shower?

The Lineup: Pregame Edition

Wednesday, May 13

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Shohei Ohtani and Cal Raleigh

Welcome to The Pregame Lineup, a weekday newsletter that gets you up to speed on everything you need to know for today’s games, while catching you up on fun and interesting stories you might have missed. Today’s edition is brought to you by David Adler.

Two superstar hitters, Shohei Ohtani and Cal Raleigh, have been mired in huge slumps lately. And that means one thing: It’s time to get weird to change the juju. 

Heading into yesterday’s games, Ohtani had just six home runs and a .767 OPS this season, far from his usual MVP-level self. And Raleigh? He’d gone from 60 homers in 2025 to an 0-for-38 slump in 2026

Like every baseball player worth his salt knows: Sometimes, to bust out of a slump, you need to bring out the big guns. And both Ohtani and Raleigh did. 

For Ohtani’s cold streak to end, he needed an ice cube. Well, THE Ice Cube. With the legendary rapper on the Dodgers broadcast in the third inning last night (Ice Cube was in the house for his own bobblehead night at Dodger Stadium), Ohtani stepped to the plate and promptly smacked his first home run since April 26

For Raleigh, it was a nice hot postgame shower … in full uniform. The star catcher hopped in for a fully clothed shower after the Mariners’ win on Monday — at the urging of teammate Logan Gilbert — and promptly snapped his 0-fer with a pair of hits last night against the Astros.  

We’ll have to wait a couple of days to see if Shohei’s bat is permanently unfrozen (he’s pitching tonight, and he’s getting the day off tomorrow), but a dried-off Raleigh and the Mariners are back in action against the Astros at 8:10 p.m. ET on MLB.TV.  

SKENES’ ERA WAS 67.50. NOW IT’S 1.98

Paul Skenes

Sound the alarms — Paul Skenes is on the decline. Just look at his ERA season by season …

  • 2024: 1.96
  • 2025: 1.97
  • 2026: 1.98

Just kidding (duh). But the actual reason we’re bringing this up is, the most predictable thing in baseball has happened: Skenes has an ERA under two. 

It took all of eight starts for Skenes to lower his 2026 ERA from 67.50 to 1.98. Color us shocked.

Skenes’ bizarro Opening Day start, when the Mets knocked him out of the game in the first inning, might as well have happened in an alternate universe. 

Skenes’ 2026 season ERA, start by start

  • 67.50 <– Opening Day
  • 9.53
  • 5.25
  • 4.00
  • 3.27
  • 2.48
  • 2.91
  • 2.36
  • 1.98 <– Today

As of this morning, 2026 Paul Skenes now officially looks exactly like 2025 Paul Skenes, who looked exactly like 2024 Paul Skenes.

We know Skenes is the most dominant pitcher on the planet (at least until Tarik Skubal comes back), but boy, that was fast.

After Skenes’ latest gem against the Rockies — when he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and finished with eight scoreless innings and a season-high 10 strikeouts — the final traces of that first start have disappeared. 

So if you can bring yourself to look past the extremely troubling trend of Skenes’ ERA going up by 0.01 every year, here’s the good news: His 1.97 ERA since he debuted is the lowest in the Majors by a mile. Of the other 131 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 200 innings since 2024, Skubal is next-best at 2.34.

In 2024, Skenes had the lowest ERA of any pitcher who threw as many innings as he did. He had the lowest ERA again in 2025, and also had enough innings to qualify to win his first ERA title. 

He doesn’t have the lowest ERA in 2026 … yet … but would you really bet against him being right back at the top of the leaderboard at the end of the year? The guy’s like clockwork. 

GAMES OF THE NIGHT

A powerhouse NL matchup and two electric arms on the mound highlight tonight’s slate of games. For info on how to watch every game this season, go to MLB.com/Watch

Cubs at Braves (7:15 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Shota Imanaga keeps rolling in his resurgent season (2.28 ERA in eight starts). But can the southpaw be the stopper with the Cubs on a three-game losing streak and facing the MLB-best Braves? 

Padres at Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

The Brewers are on a four-game winning streak, and now they send The Miz to the mound. Jacob Misiorowski is fresh off dominating the Yankees and setting Statcast velocity records. But the Padres are a dangerous team, in first place in the NL West ahead of the Dodgers.

Giants at Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Speaking of the Dodgers … it’s Shohei’s pitching day in L.A. Ohtani’s Cy Young quest continues as he takes a 0.97 ERA into tonight’s start against the rival Giants. This will be another “only pitching, no hitting” gamefor Ohtani. 

64 BATTERS FACED. 1 HIT. AND IT’S … WHO??

Rico Garcia

Is a 32-year-old journeyman reliever more dominant than Mason Miller?

The numbers don’t lie … but you’ll have to see them to believe them.

Entering today, Orioles reliever Rico Garcia has pitched 20 games this season. He’s faced 64 batters. He’s allowed exactly one hit. 

Who, has done what??? Yeah, we’re as baffled as hitters have been against him.  

Garcia has played for seven different teams in six big league seasons. He entered this year with a 5.27 career ERA. 

And yet, somehow, he is technically the most unhittable pitcher in baseball right now. Heck, he’s on one of the most unhittable stretches to start a season ever

Garcia is the first pitcher in the Modern Era (since 1900) to allow no more than one hit over his first 20 appearances in a season.

And according to the Elias Sports Bureau, Garcia is the first pitcher in the Expansion Era (since 1961) to start off a season by allowing no more than one hit over a span of 64 batters faced.

But don’t worry, Mason Miller fans. The last pitcher to have a 64-batter, one-hit stretch at any point was indeed the Padres closer, who had a stretch like that between September 2025 and April of this season.

Thomas Harrigan digs into this crazy story here >>

FROM SPEED-AND-D SPECIALIST TO TOP-5 PLAYER

Brice Turang

Brice Turang has become an under-the-radar superstar for the Brewers. Brent Maguire, who has a nice story on Turang out today, explains: 

When you think of the surefire superstars currently playing baseball, there are probably 5-10 guys who immediately spring to mind. But in the case of one player, he’s quietly snuck into superstar territory dating back to last summer.

Wins Above Replacement leaders since last August

According to FanGraphs

  • 1. Shohei Ohtani: 6.5 (3.7 hitting, 2.8 pitching) 
  • 2. (tie) Aaron Judge: 5.7
  • 2. (tie) Bobby Witt Jr.: 5.7
  • 4. BRICE TURANG: 4.8 
  • 5. Cristopher Sánchez: 4.8

That’s right. Since the beginning of last August, Turang has played like a legitimate top-five most valuable player in baseball, trailing only the elite trio of Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. in WAR.

Turang, mainly known as a speed-and-defense player when he debuted, added more bat speed than any player last season and subsequently had the biggest year-to-year improvement from 2024 to 2025 in hard-hit rate and exit velocity. As a result, Turang enters tonight’s game with a .965 OPS and 18 home runs in 88 games since last August.

If you didn’t know much about Turang before this year, you certainly should get to know him now, with his elite production, his walk-off home run against the Yankees on Sunday and his stellar run with Team USA in this year’s World Baseball Classic.

Read the whole story on Turang here >>

AROUND THE LEAGUE

• Kyle Schwarber has homered in five consecutive games, tying the Phillies franchise record. The MLB record is eight straight games, done by Schwarber’s own manager, Don Mattingly, as well as Ken Griffey Jr. and Dale Long.

• Staying with Philly, Zack Wheeler is back back. Wheeler reached historic levels of efficiency in making quick work of the Red Sox yesterday. He needed just 16 pitches to get through the first three innings, the fewest needed by any starter in a game this millennium.  

• Speaking of aces who are back … Shane McClanahan. The Rays lefty extended his scoreless streak to 21 2/3 innings yesterday in Tampa Bay’s win over the Blue Jays, leapfrogging Cristopher Sánchez (20 2/3 innings) for the longest active streak by any MLB starter.

• Yesterday was a great day for pitch efficiency. On top of Wheeler’s start vs. the Sox, Twins right-hander Bailey Ober threw an 89-pitch shutout against the Marlins — Minnesota’s first “Maddux” since 2017. (A Maddux is a shutout on fewer than 100 pitches, named after the king of them, Greg.) Ober did this despite averaging just 88.8 mph with his fastball — and while facing off against one of the league’s hardest throwers, Eury Pérez — which only makes his Maddux even more fun.

• Mets prospect A.J. Ewing looks like the real deal. In his MLB debut yesterday, Ewing drew three walks, ripped a triple for his first Major League hit and sparked the Mets to a big win over the Tigers. He’s just 21 years old, but New York’s top position-player prospect looks like a big league-ready hitter today.  

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