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Here’s What Billionaires Are Buying Hand Over Fist

When billionaires and high-level insiders buy, it’s worth paying attention.

Not because every purchase is a guaranteed winner, but because these investors often have a sharper view of long-term positioning, cycle timing, and—especially for insiders—internal execution. Their buying activity can be a useful “signal,” particularly when it shows up after a stock has already been punished and sentiment is washed out.

That said, there’s an important nuance: some of the most visible “billionaire buying” headlines come from 13F filings, which are backward-looking snapshots of holdings at quarter end. They can provide valuable clues, but they are not real-time trade alerts.

With that in mind, here are three stocks drawing meaningful “smart money” interest—spanning a beaten-down consumer icon, a dominant AI platform, and a higher-risk quantum computing play.

Company: Nike (SYM: NKE)
Insider confidence near the lows after a painful reset

Nike has been a classic “great brand, tough tape” story.

The stock slid hard late last year amid concerns tied to China demand, margin pressure, and cautious outlook commentary. But what stood out is what happened near the bottom: significant insider buying.

Apple CEO Tim Cook—who has served on Nike’s board since 2005—bought 50,000 shares at an average price of $58.97 for roughly $2.95 million, according to regulatory filings and reporting. 
In the same time window, Nike director Robert Holmes Swan bought 8,691 shares at an average price of $57.54, a purchase worth about $500,000. 

This matters for two reasons:

1. It’s non-trivial size. These aren’t symbolic $50,000 “window-dressing” buys.
2. It happened after weakness. The best insider signals often appear when headlines are ugly and the stock is already discounted.

Of course, Nike isn’t magically “fixed” overnight. The operating story still hinges on product execution, inventory discipline, China traction, and a credible roadmap to stabilize and rebuild margins. But insider buying at depressed levels can be an encouraging tell that the selloff may have overshot reality.

Where it stands now: NKE last traded around $63.36.

EnergyX

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Company: Alphabet (SYM: GOOG)
Billionaire accumulation + a power-and-data-center catalyst

Alphabet has been a magnet for large investor interest as AI shifts from novelty to infrastructure.

In Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2025 13F filing, Berkshire disclosed a sizeable new Alphabet stake—widely reported at around 17.8 million shares. 
Alphabet also appeared in reports covering other billionaire activity in the same period, including Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office initiating an Alphabet position (noted in some summaries as ~102,200 shares). 

Again, remember the 13F lag: these filings confirm positioning as of quarter-end, not necessarily what is being bought today. Still, it’s meaningful when heavyweight investors choose to establish or add exposure—especially in a mega-cap where capital allocation requires conviction.

Why the Alphabet thesis is strengthening

The AI opportunity isn’t just about models and chatbots—it’s about compute, data centers, and power availability. Alphabet has moved to address that constraint directly via an announced acquisition of Intersect Power, an energy and data center infrastructure company, in a deal reported at $4.75 billion plus debt. 

In discussing the deal, Alphabet/Google CEO Sundar Pichai said Intersect will help expand capacity and build power generation in step with data center load—an increasingly strategic priority as AI demand accelerates. 

Translation: Alphabet is trying to secure the “fuel line” for AI growth. In a world where power constraints can bottleneck data-center scale, owning more of the infrastructure pipeline can be a competitive advantage.

Where it stands now: GOOG last traded around $333.08.

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Company: D-Wave Quantum (SYM: QBTS)
A higher-risk bet as quantum computing gets louder

Quantum is speculative—but it’s gaining attention because of its potential to solve certain categories of problems that are extremely difficult for classical systems.

That’s part of why Ken Griffin’s Citadel drew headlines for its D-Wave position. Multiple reports citing Citadel’s Q3 13F indicated the firm bought 169,057 shares, increasing its stake by about 201%. 

What’s the catalyst on D-Wave’s side? The company has continued to push its platform forward. D-Wave announced the general availability of its Advantage2 system, describing it as its most advanced and performant system, and positioning it as capable of solving certain hard problems beyond classical reach (in the company’s framing). 

This is still early-stage technology, and the market can swing violently on sentiment. But the upside narrative is why billionaires and institutions occasionally take “option-like” positions in the space.

The market size story

Estimates vary, but the broad “quantum value creation” narrative is substantial. For example, BCG has projected quantum computing could create $450B–$850B of economic value by 2040. 
(That figure is often cited in media discussions as a rough framing of the opportunity size, not a guaranteed revenue forecast.)

Where it stands now: QBTS last traded around $19.19.

Risk to respect: this is not a “sleep well at night” blue-chip. Quantum equities can be extremely volatile, profitability is uncertain, and timelines are long. Positions here tend to work best when sized appropriately for high-risk exposure.

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DISCLOSURE: EnergyX’s Regulation A offering has been qualified by the SEC. Before investing, carefully review the offering circular, including the risk factors. The offering circular is available at invest.energyx.com

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Lindsey Vonn airlifted off mountain after crashing out hard in women’s Olympic downhillStarting 13th in a field of 36, facing the dramatic 2,572-meter Olympia Delle Tofane course, pushing out of the gate at high noon, Vonn almost immediately wrecked.News for you, PeterElon Musk warns America will ‘1,000%’ go bankrupt, ‘fail as a country’ due…‘We’re actually totally screwed.’Moneywise How Trump’s $10 billion suit against his own government could go sidewaysPresident Donald Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS and Teasury Department may not turn into a legal settlement f…NBC News Mark Zuckerberg under fire after ex-employee makes startling claims: ‘Will be a total loss’“The goal of the startup is to bring about the next big revolution.”The Cool Down Why Everyone’s ‘Burping’ Their House Right Now, and You Should Be TooThis trending (yet age-old) practice helps eliminate stale air from your home. Here’s how you can do it this winter for a …Better Homes & Gardens Larry Ellison and Jeff Bezos have seen more than $66 billion swiped from their net worths since the st…AI bubble fears have led to billions erased from tech CEOs’ net worth overnight—and Oracle founder Larry Ell…Fortune Brandi Carlile on What It Means to Sing ‘America the Beautiful’ at the Super Bowl in a T…No “Joke”: Brandi Carlile is one of the few vocalists out there with so powerhouse of a voice, she could alm…Variety Trump’s quest to name things after himself takes an even more desperate turnDonald Trump’s insatiable desire to name things after himself has been clear for a very long time. And as president…CNN Terrance Gore, former MLB speedster and 3-time World Series champion, dies at 34Gore had an unusual major-league career, appearing primarily as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement.Yahoo Sports JD Vance gets booed at 2026 Olympics opening ceremony after official urged crowds to ‘be respectful’“Those are a lot of boos for him — whistling, jeering, some applause,” a Canadian broadcaster announced.Entertainment Weekly Spain, Portugal face fresh storms, torrential rainSpain and Portugal on Saturday faced fresh storms and torrential rain just days after floods caused by Storm Leonardo prov…AFP More like thisToday’s gamePlay Crushable by Candy CrushStart your streak in Crushable now.Trending now1. Donald Trump2. All-American Halftime Show3. Jeffrey Epstein4. Shigeru Ishiba5. Ilia Malinin6. Nancy Guthrie7. Lindsey Vonn8. 3 Doors Down Lead Singer9. Kaori Sakamoto10. Puppy Bowl 2026

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Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999

Editor’s note: Don’t miss your chance to profit…

The past few years of high interest rates have turned the credit market on its head. As a result, the bonds of blue-chip businesses are trading at a massive discount.

But according to Rob Spivey – director of research for our corporate affiliate Altimetry – that likely won’t be the case for much longer. And it’s creating a rare opportunity for investors who are paying attention…

In today’s Masters Series, originally from the October 31 issue of the Altimetry Daily Authority daily e-letter, Rob details how you can position yourself to profit from this market shift…

These Blue-Chip Bonds Are Trading Like Junk

By Rob Spivey, director of research, Altimetry

Investors love to sit where the grass is greenest…

When interest rates were near zero, long-term corporate bonds traded near face value – also called “par” ($1,000). Some even climbed above par for a time.

Folks were hungry for stable income. They jumped at the prospect of earning 5% or more through bonds issued by blue-chip businesses. There was just no other way to lock in those kinds of returns for a decade-plus.

But when the Federal Reserve started driving rates higher in 2022, those same long-dated bonds were suddenly worth less on paper.

Even the biggest, safest companies on Earth pale in comparison with the U.S. government. It’s bigger… has more money… and is all but guaranteed to keep chugging along.

So when short-term U.S. Treasurys started yielding as much as long-term corporate debt, the choice was obvious.

Investors fled to shorter-term debt… pushing prices down even though the underlying credit quality didn’t change. And bonds are still cheap today.

But as we’ll explain, that likely won’t be the case for much longer. And it’s creating a rare opportunity for the folks who are paying attention…

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‘Tech Stock’ Potential With ‘Treasury Bond’ Risk

Top experts call this both a “port in the storm” and their No. 1 recommendation of 2026. It’s a group of opportunities that could DOUBLE in the next year – with a risk profile like buying Treasurys. (Some think even better.) It’s only possible because of a rare anomaly that could disappear within weeks. Today, our corporate affiliate Altimetry is breaking the story. Get the details here while there’s still time.

Don’t Ignore This New Wall Street Warning for 2026

Fifty-year Wall Street legend Marc Chaikin, founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics, called the 2022 bear market, the 2023 bank failures, the 2020 crash, and the 2025 tariff tantrum – all in advance. In light of the recent volatility, he’s now stepping forward to warn of a “violent market shift” headed straight for U.S. stocks in early 2026. Here’s how to prepare.

Interest rates are still high relative to history…

And bond prices – as measured by the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (BND) – are close to their lowest levels of the past decade.

Take a look…

You can see in the chart that bonds are trading at much lower prices, on average, because of higher interest rates. And importantly, it’s not just distressed debt that’s cheap…

It’s the entire bond market.

The bonds of many stable, blue-chip businesses are trading at distressed prices – hundreds of dollars below par value ($1,000).

But as we said, this setup might not stick around for much longer.

The Fed cut rates three times in 2024. And after holding off for most of 2025… it cut rates three consecutive times to close the year.

That likely won’t be the end…

President Donald Trump has been pushing for lower rates since he took office. He has gone as far as threatening to remove Powell from his post.

While the Fed’s current plan would leave rates around 3.5% to 3.75%… that’s still much higher than Trump’s 1% to 2% target.

We think Trump will get his way this year. Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May. The Trump administration will be able to appoint a new chair who shares the president’s views on rate cuts.

And when that happens… it will be like 2022 in reverse. Bond investors will ditch U.S. Treasurys when they stop being so attractive.

They’ll hop right on over to the blue chips they’ve been ignoring for years.

As investors pile back in, the prices of those bonds will soar back toward par value.

That brings us to today’s opportunity…

Investors have a short window of time to buy in before the rush. And that’s exactly what we told folks to do in our Credit Cashflow Investor monthly advisory.

Only we didn’t just recommend our one favorite bond…

We recommended six.

The bonds were all issued by household names. You’d likely recognize most, if not all, of the underlying companies. There’s no question about their stability.

And yet, they’re dirt-cheap today.

If Trump gets his way in 2026, our recommendations could appreciate far sooner than maturity. We could be ready to take profits in as little as a year or so.

Opportunities like this don’t come around often. The past few years of high interest rates have turned the credit market on its head. The bonds of stable, trusted businesses are trading like “junk.”

And folks who take advantage of this setup could be in for a sizeable reward.

Regards,

Rob Spivey

Editor’s note: According to Rob, Trump’s actions are creating a rare anomaly that has never existed in market history.

For investors who are paying attention, this could result in the opportunity to double your money – with less risk than nearly any other asset in the markets.

That’s why Rob recently went on camera with Joel Litman – Altimetry’s chief investment officer – to discuss how you can position yourself to profit from this market shift. Learn more here…

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This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility.

Finally, I Found It 

Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance 

Dear Reader,

I’ve had some great stock successes in my career.

RYCEY was one of the big ones. I called it the “single best value play in the history of the markets” in 2022.

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My followers have reported making $141,000… $272,000… $1 million… and even $8.2 million on this one stockAnd yet, RYCEY was not as good as the stock I just found.

It’s a tiny company – just 2,500th the size of Nvidia.

Yet it holds the patents on a new chip technology that uses up to 40% less energy than silicon… while increasing performance up to 100-fold!

This tech just set two new world records.

The Center for Strategic & International Studies reports this new tech “has emerged as a frontrunner in the quest to push the boundaries of electronics, ushering in a new era of energy-efficient and high-performance devices.”

And here’s what makes it so exciting.

Nvidia is so wowed by this tech, they immediately partnered with this tiny company to get its tech into Nvidia’s brand new AI super-factories.

In short, this tiny company could become one of the most important in the world by this time next year.

That’s why I put together a brand new presentation for you.

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Why the major tech firms like Nvidia are flocking to the company with all the patents…

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If you’re looking for one great stock with the potential to repeat Nvidia’s 35,600% rise over the last 10 years, this is it.

Watch My Presentation on the Greatest Stock Story Ever Told Right Here

Yours in smart speculation,

Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician
Monument Traders Alliance

Monument Traders Alliance, LLC

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Sunday’s Exclusive Article

The Hot Dog Hedge: Smithfield Acquires Nathan’s Famous

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Article Published: 1/25/2026. 

Article Highlights

• Smithfield is funding the entire acquisition of Nathan’s Famous with cash on hand to avoid high interest rates and deliver immediate earnings growth for shareholders.
• The deal transforms Smithfield from a manufacturer into a brand owner, eliminating licensing fees and capturing the full profit margin on retail products.
• Acquiring a premium beef brand allows the company to diversify its protein portfolio and utilize its massive scale to better manage input costs.

For companies that have recently returned to the public markets, the first major acquisition is a defining moment: it shows investors how management plans to deploy capital for growth. Smithfield Foods (NASDAQ: SFD), which completed its IPO in January 2025, has wasted little time. The pork industry giant has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Nathan’s Famous (NASDAQ: NATH) for $102 per share.

Beyond the headline about two iconic American brands joining forces, the deal is a deliberate financial move to convert ongoing royalty payments into immediate earnings. By leveraging its large operational scale, Smithfield plans to optimize a brand it already manufactures for. For shareholders, this looks less like a speculative bet and more like a high-probability return.

A Cash Deal in a Debt World

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The transaction terms underscore a conservative approach. Smithfield will pay $102 per share in an all-cash deal, valuing the enterprise at roughly $450 million, and it is funding the purchase entirely with cash on hand.

With borrowing costs still elevated, many buyers must take on new debt to fund acquisitions — adding interest expense that can erode future profits. Smithfield’s ability to finance this purchase without issuing debt is a sign of balance-sheet strength. The company finished the third quarter of fiscal 2025with more than $3 billion in available funds and a modest leverage ratio of about 0.8x net debt to adjusted EBITDA.

Deploying idle cash to buy an operating business typically outperforms leaving it in a low-interest account, where inflation can erode value. Smithfield expects the acquisition to be immediately accretive to adjusted earnings per share, adding to the company’s bottom line upon closing rather than after a lengthy turnaround.

Moreover, Smithfield pays a dividend yield of roughly 4.32%, and this purchase helps support that payout by securing more predictable cash flows. The strategy reflects a preference for high-probability returns over speculative ventures.

From Renter to Owner: A $9 Million Opportunity

At the heart of the deal is the elimination of licensing fees. For more than a decade Smithfield has manufactured and distributed Nathan’s retail products, but without owning the brand it paid high-margin royalties back to Nathan’s corporate entity.

Acquiring Nathan’s ends those payments. Smithfield projects about $9 million in annual run-rate cost savings within two years of closing, much of it from eliminating the licensing obligation. The transaction converts Smithfield from a brand renter into an owner, allowing it to capture the full profit on every package sold.

Mergers often carry integration risk — combining factories, systems, and workforces can be costly and complex. This deal carries minimal integration risk because Smithfield already operates the supply chain for Nathan’s retail business. The same factories will continue producing the products, so there are no major system consolidations or plant closures required. It is largely a change in financial ownership rather than an operational overhaul, letting Smithfield streamline its Packaged Meats segment with little friction.

Beef vs. Pork: The Inflation Hedge

Commodity dynamics help explain the timing. Nathan’s products are 100% beef and recently faced a 16%–20% jump in the cost of beef and trimmings. As a smaller, beef-focused standalone company, Nathan’s had limited tools to offset that inflation.

Smithfield, by contrast, is the world’s largest pork processor and hog producer and is benefiting from lower grain and feed costs that support its core margins. Adding a premium beef brand diversifies Smithfield’s protein mix, providing a natural hedge: when pork margins weaken, beef may perform better, and vice versa.

More importantly, Smithfield brings procurement scale, hedging capabilities and buying power that a smaller business like Nathan’s could not match. Those advantages should help stabilize input costs for Nathan’s products and protect margins over time.

Consumer behavior also matters. During periods of inflation, shoppers often trade down from expensive cuts to more affordable processed options such as hot dogs and sausages. Owning a premium hot dog brand positions Smithfield to capture that volume and strengthens its position across both pork and beef categories.

Disciplined Growth: A Strategic Base Hit

This acquisition is a high-probability base hit rather than a risky home run swing. It does not dramatically change Smithfield’s scale, but it secures a valuable asset long term. Previously, Smithfield’s rights to the Nathan’s brand were set to expire in 2032; the deal removes that expiration and locks the cash flows into Smithfield’s operations in perpetuity.

The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to customary regulatory reviews, including the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). The companies have included customary termination fees and closing conditions that reflect confidence in the timing.

For shareholders, this move reinforces the Moderate Buy consensus around the stock. It bolsters the case that Smithfield is a disciplined capital allocator willing to use its strong balance sheet to lock in long-term value. By removing the licensor from the equation, Smithfield has simplified its economics and set the stage for sustained margin improvement in its Packaged Meats business. Investors now have a clear catalyst to monitor as Smithfield converts a long-standing manufacturing relationship into permanent ownership.

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From Our Partners: This Isn’t a Portfolio. It’s an AI Engine. (From RAD Intel)

Dear Reader,

After signing more than 220 Executive Orders… more than any president in American history… Donald Trump is preparing for one final move.

On February 24th — I have every reason to believe he will sign his Final Executive Order.

When I say that it’s his FINAL executive order…

It’s not because he’s leaving office.

It’s not because he’s sick or having any health issues.

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Further Reading from MarketBeat Media

Why Walmart Continues to Rally While Executives Sell the Stock

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 1/27/2026. 

In Brief

• Walmart is rapidly evolving into a high-margin technology company by automating its supply chain and expanding its lucrative digital advertising business.
• The recent wave of executive stock sales is a standard practice tied to a leadership transition, rather than a signal of weak corporate fundamentals.
• Institutional investors continue to buy the stock because the company dominates the retail sector, has a massive competitive moat, and pays a reliable dividend.

Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) is currently defying expectations. The stock is trading near all-time highs — around $118 per share — and the company is closing in on a historic $1 trillion market capitalization. By most financial measures, the retail giant is firing on all cylinders, outperforming competitors and the broader retail sector. Yet for investors watching the insider trading dashboard, a contradictory signal appears: while the market is buying aggressively, many executives are selling.

Over the last 12 months, tracking data shows a clear disparity: zero open-market purchases by insiders and more than $60 million in sales. Typically, insider selling can be interpreted as reduced confidence in a company’s prospects. Still, Walmart’s stock price is up over 5% in the last 30 days and up 10% in the past 90 days.

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To reconcile that disconnect, investors need to look beyond the headline numbers. Walmart is evolving from a primarily brick-and-mortar grocer into a higher-margin, technology-enabled business. That transition, combined with the company’s strength during uncertain economic times, suggests institutional confidence is considerably stronger than the caution flagged by executive sales.

Profit Taking or Loss of Faith?

When a CEO liquidates millions in company stock it attracts attention. In January 2026, outgoing CEO Doug McMillon sold approximately 19,416 shares, a transaction valued at over $2.3 million. Incoming CEO John Furner also sold roughly $1.5 million in stock, and other senior executives, including Executive Vice President Daniel Bartlett, executed sizable sales during the same period.

At first glance, a ledger showing 10 insiders selling and zero buying over the last year looks bearish. However, three key factors provide important context that reduces the perceived risk:

• The changing of the guard: The selling coincides with a major leadership transition. McMillon is retiring on January 31, 2026, and Furner assumes the CEO role on February 1. Executives commonly liquidate shares for estate planning, tax planning or to diversify their portfolios when leaving a role or taking on new responsibilities.
• Selling into strength: These sales occurred near recent highs — roughly $118–$120 per share — after about a 24% annual rally. Exiting positions at elevated valuations is often rational profit-taking rather than a sign of panic.
• Market absorption: Despite millions of dollars of insider supply hitting the market, the stock has held up. Buyer demand from institutional investors has been sufficient to absorb those sales, suggesting that market participants still see value.

The Ultimate Recession Hedge: Winning the Trade-Down

The 2026 economic backdrop remains mixed, with lingering inflationary pressures and uneven growth. In such environments, consumers tend not to stop spending; they change where they spend. This “trade-down” effect sees shoppers move from premium grocers like Whole Foods or mid-tier chains such as Target (NYSE: TGT) to Walmart to stretch their budgets.

Walmart’s Everyday Low Price promise attracts value-conscious customers, and the composition of that customer base is shifting. Data from the company’s third-quarter earnings indicates market-share gains are being driven in part by higher-income households earning over $100,000 annually.

This demographic broadening creates a durable competitive moat, insulating Walmart from economic swings that typically hurt retailers dependent primarily on lower-income shoppers. When the economy wobbles, Walmart’s customer base tends to expand rather than contract.

For conservative investors, the stock also provides an income cushion:

• Dividend status: Walmart is a Dividend King, having increased its dividend for 53 consecutive years.
• Yield & safety: With a current yield of about 0.80% and a payout ratio near 32%of earnings, the dividend appears sustainable.

That mix of steady income and defensive demand helps cement Walmart’s role as a core holding for investors seeking stability without forgoing growth exposure.

Beyond Brick and Mortar: The Tech-Powered Future

Value investors often balk at Walmart’s valuation. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio near 41x, well above historical retail averages around 20x–25x. But the market increasingly values Walmart as more than a traditional grocer — it’s being re-rated as a hybrid of retail and technology.

The rationale for a premium valuation lies in higher-margin revenue streams that don’t depend on selling physical goods:

• Advertising business: Walmart’s global advertising operations, helped by the Vizio acquisition, grew 53% in the most recent quarter. Selling digital ads on Walmart.comand connected-TV inventory generates much higher profit margins than selling groceries, and expansion of this segment can disproportionately boost earnings.
• AI and automation: Walmart is deploying technology to improve its cost structure. The company is rolling out Sparky, an AI shopping assistant developed in partnership with OpenAI, to personalize the shopping experience. More than half of its e-commerce fulfillment volume is now automated, permanently lowering the cost to serve and enabling Walmart to compete on price while protecting margins.

Even Walmart’s strategic move to list on the NASDAQ signals an alignment with technology peers rather than legacy retailers, and investors appear willing to pay a premium for that strategic shift.

Why Fundamentals Outweigh the Noise

Insider-trading alerts can be unnerving, but good investing separates noise from signal. The recent executive selling at Walmart appears structural — tied to a historic leadership transition and reasonable profit-taking at elevated prices — and has not halted the stock’s momentum because broader market buying is grounded in solid fundamentals.

Walmart combines defensive stability through grocery dominance with offensive growth from advertising and automation. Whether the economy slows or accelerates, the company is positioned to capture value. For investors navigating 2026, Walmart remains a core holding that offers downside protection alongside upside potential.

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Nintendo Stock Falls 20%—But the Rebound Case Is Growing

Written by Chris Markoch on February 6, 2026 

In Brief

• Nintendo shares have pulled back sharply despite strong console-unit milestones, creating a potential 2026 rebound setup.
• Engagement, software releases, and brand licensing could support Switch2 ecosystem growth through 2026.
• Easing input costs and supply-chain shifts may help margins, while technicals suggest oversold conditions.

In the first half of 2025, Nintendo (OTCMKTS: NTDOY) was not only one of the best-performing consumer discretionary stocksbut a market standout as well. It surged 76% in anticipation of the company’s long-awaited Switch2 release. But it seems traders weren’t looking to stay long, as the stock is down 20% in the last 12 months and over 18% year-to-date as of Feb. 5.

It wasn’t that Switch2 sales disappointed. The company has sold 155.4 million units of its new console, surpassing the previous record of 154 million units by the Nintendo DS. However, there have been concerns over the number not being better. That corresponds with lower profit numbers, cautious forward guidance, tariff risks, and softer-than-expected holiday demand.

However, this could be a case of a stock being so bad, it’s good. There are catalysts that suggest 2026 could be a bounce-back year for NTDOY stock.

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The Best May Be Yet to Come for Switch2 Sales

Nintendo’s latest investor presentation hints that the best growth phase for the Switch2 ecosystem may still be ahead. The company announced that active monthly users reached an all-time high, with engagement levels up nearly 25% year-over-year.

That’s an encouraging sign that players are not just buying the console but staying in the ecosystem. In addition, the paid Nintendo Switch Online membership base expanded, with the attach rate improving due to the launch of more bundled hardware options.

This will also be a year when Nintendo releases Switch2 versions of many of its most popular titles. Alongside upcoming releases tied to “The Legend of Zelda” and “Splatoon” franchises, Nintendo confirmed ongoing development for its next-generation game engine, which could enhance long-tail monetization for Switch2.

This gives investors a clear reason to view 2026 not as a late-cycle phase, but as a platform-expansion year.

Adding to the excitement, Super Mario turns 40 this year. To celebrate the milestone, a “Super Mario Galaxy” movie will be released. The box office success of “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” in 2023 nearly doubled the brand’s licensing revenue, and management reiterated plans for cross-promotional campaigns that convert movie audiences into active players. If the upcoming Galaxy movie can perform as well, it could spark both console and software demand heading into the holiday season.

Cost and Tariff Headwinds Could Ease

The company’s margin pressure in recent quarters stemmed from higher memory component prices and elevated transport and tariff expenses. However, management highlighted during the presentation that these headwinds are beginning to moderate. Contract memory prices started declining in early 2026, and component costs for NAND and DDR5 memory have shown early signs of stabilization.

Nintendo also stated that it is diversifying its supply chains outside of China and pursuing more local assembly in Vietnam. Those moves will help hedge against prolonged tariff risks. These measures, combined with favorable foreign exchange positions, suggest that much of the recent cost compression may prove temporary.

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Why the Thesis Could Be Wrong

The bullish case assumes Switch2 remains the dominant platform through 2026, but it comes with risks. Consumer fatigue could set in if Nintendo’s first-party lineup slows, especially with Sony Group (NYSE: SONY)and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) expected to introduce hardware refreshes this year.

Hardware margins also remain sensitive to component pricing. Memory and silicon costs could rebound rather than normalize. In that case, Nintendo’s profitability could remain under pressure longer than expected. And while franchise-based films have driven engagement, movie tie-ins are inherently unpredictable. Disappointing box-office results could dent sentiment and licensing revenue.

Lastly, the gaming industry’s transition toward cloud and subscription ecosystems still poses a strategic challenge. Nintendo has chosen a slower, more conservative path toward online monetization, which could leave it trailing competitors on recurring revenue growth if player preferences shift more quickly than expected.

The NTDOY Chart Supports the Comeback Story

For those who buy into the supportive thesis for Switch2 sales, then the next question is whether now is a good time to get in on Nintendo stock. The chart answers in the affirmative.

For starters, the latest selling has pushed the stock price below its lower Bollinger band. This is a technical signal indicating a trend reversal, and NTDOY stock has historically responded to such a signal with a rebound.

The stock is also oversold from a momentum perspective. The relative strength indicator (RSI) is at 28.6, which indicates oversold conditions. On their own, neither signal is a confirmed buy signal. However, when you put them together, it’s a good indication that sentiment could change.

If it does, investors should look for NTDOY stock to reclaim the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). That would be a 17% gain from the price as of this writing.

Read this article online ›

Further Reading

• McDonald’s Earnings Could Cement Its Defensive Appeal
• Buffett’s Parting Gift to Berkshire Hathaway? (From Brownstone Research)
• Affirm Earnings Beat Highlights Growth and Credit Concerns
• 5 Stocks That Could Double in 2026(From TradingTips)
• Symbotic’s Earnings Beat Reignites Upside Talk
• Amazon’s Earnings Miss Was Small, But the Market’s Message Wasn’t
• IREN Earnings Were Ugly—Is a Beautiful Future Already Funded?

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