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Sharing the next part of our annual Report Card… Controversial grades… Our grading criteria… Reviewing our big-picture newsletters…

Our annual Report Card is often the most controversial Digest we write each year…

This year didn’t disappoint.

Subscriber Alex K. wrote in, “Is this the new grading scale where everyone passes?”

Harsh.

And Steve D. wrote, “Oh well. Keep the grades high. Book some more business.”

Ouch!

Today, I (Stansberry Research Publisher Matt Weinschenk) am continuing with the second installment of our annual Report card. I started last week by reviewing our Portfolio Solutions products.

A few subscribers, like Alex and Steve, wrote in to say I was too easy on The Quant Portfolio and Stansberry’s Forever Portfolio. I gave them both C grades for 2025, even though they trailed their benchmarks. (No one disputed the A+ The Total Portfolio earned for 2025.)

You might be surprised to learn that I welcome messages like Alex’s and Steve’s.

Actually… I love them. They let me know I’m doing my job.

We’ve been doing our Report Card for 20 years now. The purpose is to hold ourselves accountable and provide you with transparency on how our services have done.

We take this seriously at Stansberry Research. We’re thrilled with the outstanding success of many of our services. And if we’re not performing up to par, you deserve to know it.

But to me, the letter grades I give each service are the least important part of the Report Card.

Yes, the grades get all the attention. And yes, the editors who take home A’s and A+’s enjoy some bragging rights around the office.

But what’s far more important, we give you the critical numbers we use in evaluating our performance.

Stansberry Research’s guiding principle since our founding has been to provide you, our subscriber, with all the information we’d want if our roles were reversed.

The Report Card honors that promise.

We give you the average return for all the services’ recommendations… the annualized return for those picks… the win rate… and a relevant benchmark.

Now, to be clear, I stand by my judgments.

As I explained in last week’s Digest, The Quant Portfolio and Stansberry’s Forever Portfolio focus on quality stocks. Specifically, they hold stocks with high profit margins, free cash flows, and other fundamental measures.

And unfortunately, in 2025, high-quality stocks trailed low-quality stocks. A study by investment bank UBS shows that since March, low-quality stocks have beaten high-quality stocks by 50 percentage points.

Considering the market refused to offer them any opportunities, I think the Forever Portfolio and Quant Portfolio did just fine.

And I don’t want these portfolios to stray from quality stocks. I would have judged them more harshly if they had strayed from their mandates.

Can you imagine something called Stansberry’s Forever Portfolio deciding it needed to add a meme stock?

So these portfolios earned C grades because they did what they were supposed to do. And if they keep doing it, I wholeheartedly believe things will work out.

Again, the grades are entirely mine. I hope you agree with my judgments. But in the end, if you read my explanation… look at the numbers… and decide I’ve gone soft… that’s OK. Disagree. Roast me. I want to hear all about it. Let me know at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

This is all about full track-record transparency. I’m grateful for subscribers like Alex and Steve who take the time to dig into the data and form their own judgments.

Today, I’m reviewing our big-picture newsletters…

These newsletters cover big topics, big stocks, and they generally welcome a wide range of investors looking for well-researched financial information.

We tend to offer these newsletters at affordable prices – prices much lower than their quality would suggest – so they’re accessible to anyone ready to improve their investment returns.

I have to say, I was a bit surprised by the results. At Stansberry Research, we don’t chase wild gains. We tend to be careful. Measured.

I fully admit our portfolios run the risk of overlooking the hottest stocks in the market because these stocks tend to be the most overvalued and risky.

So in a galloping bull market like this – one rewarding businesses with promises of future growth and less in the way of fundamentals – I thought we’d be left behind.

In most cases, we were not.

The numbers look especially good when you take a long-term view, which is how you build real wealth. But again, you can judge for yourself.

Unlike the portfolios I reviewed last week, these are not fully allocated portfolios. As such, they don’t have annual returns that perfectly map onto their benchmarks. But over 20 years, we’ve developed what we believe is the best way to grade these portfolios.

Here’s how it works…

Our Grading Criteria for Traditional Publications

Before you get started, I encourage you to read this explanation of the criteria we use…

It will help you understand what we’re looking for from our analysts and editors. It should also help you understand the high standards that we set for all our publications. As I said, the grades are mine – no one else’s. I generally provide context to support my decisions. But there’s no fudging… no excuses… and no hiding from the results.

First, we aim for complete accuracy…

This involves tracking the exact entry and exit points. Please keep in mind… we’re tracking our results (not yours, which is impossible for us to do). We’re not saying these results represent the exact prices at which you could have gotten into or out of an investment. Rather, they represent the value of our insights at the time we publish our material. We use the closing price from the day prior to publication for our entry price… and for our exit price, we use the closing price from the day after we recommend closing the position or hit our stop loss.

Next, we evaluate each publication’s performance by focusing on three key metrics…

The most important metric for us is the win rate. Our traditional newsletters make regular recommendations – in most cases, each month. Their model portfolios are essentially a list of recommendations – not an actual portfolio where you invest in an entire pool of risk-weighted securities. We can’t know if subscribers act on every recommendation or try to cherry-pick the ideas they think will work out best. In most cases, we bet that it’s the latter.

That makes the editor’s ability to pick more winners than losers an important criterion. This tells subscribers the likelihood that an editor’s picks will end up profitable. When you follow an editor with a high win rate, you should stick with them.

Next are the average and annualized returns…

We compare how each recommendation (not the entire list of recommendations at once) performs against its benchmark over its exact holding period. (That benchmark is the S&P 500 Index, unless otherwise noted.) This is perhaps the most confusing metric for subscribers to understand. But we think it’s the most accurate way to compare results. Since we’re making recommendations throughout the evaluation period, we can’t compare the newsletters with the S&P 500 over the full period… Not all recommendations were made at the start date.

Likewise, we don’t close all our positions at the same time. That’s why you will see a different number for the benchmark on most publications rather than a flat rate of return for the evaluation period. By looking at the average gains for a publication, you can determine what kind of returns to expect from following that editor’s recommendations.

In investing, annualized returns show what would happen if you were to repeat a trade’s performance (up or down) throughout the year. This allows us to compare different strategies over different periods.

For these newsletters, I’m going to share the performance over one year and five years. And since these newsletters tend to have longer-term investment horizons, I’m going to grade them based on five-year returns.

So let’s get started…

Stansberry’s Investment Advisory: B

It was a great year for Whitney Tilson and the Stansberry’s Investment Advisory team. Of the 12 picks made in 2025, seven have been winners, for an average annualized gain of 33.8%… compared with 24.9% for the benchmark S&P 500 Index.

Over the five-year period, Stansberry’s Investment Advisory had a positive win rate at 56% and only slightly underperformed its benchmark.

But I believe the Investment Advisory carries significantly less risk than the S&P 500.

You see, the Investment Advisory model portfolio holds many insurance companies, which we believe are the “best businesses in the world.” They aren’t fast-moving stocks, but over time, they reward you. For example, Investment Advisory holdings W.R. Berkley (WRB) and American Financial (AFG) are up 623% and 483%, respectively.

The portfolio also has high-quality, best-of-the-best stocks (which it labels “Global Elite Businesses”) like Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) and McDonald’s (MCD).

Now, our grading scale works on what we call “vintages.” Each year measures the positions open in that year. These positions are tracked until they close.

So the Investment Advisory‘s five-year returns are being dragged down by 2022’s picks – mainly two large losses in the semiconductor sector. The model portfolio stopped out of Applied Materials (AMAT) and Intel (INTC) for losses of 45% and 38%, respectively.

The team was onto something with semiconductor stocks. But they were early.

It’s also worth noting that our methodology doesn’t give credit for stocks recommended before 2021 that the portfolio still holds. And there are a lot of them.

For example, gold producer Barrick Mining (B) is up 114% since the team recommended it. In 2025 alone, it went up 181%.

CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), the leading U.S. options exchange, is up 215% since its initial recommendation and 189% over the five years ending in 2025… Credit-card company American Express (AXP) is up 492% since its initial recommendation and 225% over the past five years… And software giant Microsoft (MSFT) is up 1,550% since its initial recommendation and 126% over the past five years.

The five-year track record, as calculated, gets no credit for those returns.

If you add it all up, since inception an incredible 27 years ago, Stansberry’s Investment Advisory has beaten its benchmark by 3.2% per year. That’s a rate and time period I believe to be unmatched in the industry. That’s why it earns a B for this year’s Report Card.

True Wealth: B

In many ways, True Wealth runs counter to Stansberry’s Investment Advisory.

Editor Brett Eversole focuses on big trends. He looks from the “top down” to find the countries, sectors, and currencies set to move.

Brett will readily tell you he doesn’t spend his time trying to evaluate the financials or science behind a single biotechnology company. Instead, he looks for when biotechnology stocks as a whole should get their due. That’s why he recommended the iShares Biotechnology Fund (IBB) in September. It’s already up 21%.

If you isolate True Wealth‘s recent performance, Brett has been killing it.

In 2024, Brett made 13 recommendations. Ten are up, for an annualized gain of 31%, versus 15% for the benchmark S&P 500.

In 2025, Brett did even better. He recommended 13 plays, with nine winners. They returned 43% annualized gains versus 16% for the benchmark.

But Brett still has to work through tough 2022 and 2023 returns, when markets whipsawed and made it tough on trend followers. With a 58% win rate and annualized returns just slightly below the benchmark over the past five years, True Wealth earns a B.

Commodity Supercycles: A+

Commodity Supercycles, led by Whitney Tilson along with Brian Tycangco and Bill McGilton, aims to do what it says in the name: capture huge gains when commodities go on their inevitable tear higher.

That’s happening right now.

The AI boom has rewarded energy and commodity investors. And Whitney and the team have been there to capitalize on it.

The Commodity Supercycles model portfolio includes nuclear stocks like BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Vistra (VST), up 139% and 82%, respectively.

It also has renewable plays like GE Vernova (GEV), up 99%, and Ormat Technologies (ORA), up 83%… traditional oil-rights picks like Viper Energy (VNOM), up 180%, and Black Stone Minerals (BSM), up 116%… and pipeline companies like Kinder Morgan (KMI), which is up 96%.

Those were all added to the portfolio within the last five years.

And then, of course, there are the metals. What a time it has been for metals.

Copper play Ero Copper (ERO) is up 154% since September. Kinross Gold (KGC) is up 341%. And the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) is up 335%.

I could go on.

Commodity Supercycles demonstrates so much of the value of Stansberry Research.

We’ve published it for 21 years, through good commodity markets and bad… with real experts who focus on the industry and know its ins, outs, and opportunities.

So when commodities catch fire, we’re already in place. You know you can come to a trusted source to get the best research.

With a win rate of 66% and sextuple the annualized returns of its benchmark Bloomberg Commodity Index over the past five years, Commodity Supercycles earns a well-deserved A+.

Stansberry Innovations Report: C

Stansberry Innovations Report is designed to capture growth… to find the best technology innovations and the right way to play them in the market.

It’s hard to complain about the returns editors Eric Wade and John Engel have made on their stock positions (that is to say, not including those from the “Crypto Corner” feature).

They’ve been all over some of the big trends in tech and have seen returns like 505% on Ciena (CIEN) and 297% on Lumentum (LITE), both companies that make fiber-optic networking equipment. They posted a 365% gain on music streamer Spotify Technology (SPOT), even adjusting for taking profits on half the position. And they’re up 121% on Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL).

Over the past five years, the Innovations Reportmodel portfolio had average gains of 25% and 16.8% annualized.

However, when your sector is the hot one, you have to perform. And while the Innovations Report has informed readers and put them into some big hits, it just about matched the benchmark S&P 500. That’s why the Innovations Report earns a C this year.

There’s a thin line between average and exceptional. With just one more Spotify or Ciena, the Innovations Report could jump up a letter grade or two.

If we look at the Innovations Report since its inception in 2018, we see a clear A-level publication. The average gain of 47.5% outpaces the 38.2% earned by the S&P 500 by nearly double digits.

The Innovations Report also includes several crypto recommendations, which we look at separately due to their volatility. Here, Eric mainly sticks to the big “blue chip” cryptos that are easy to buy and hold for a long time.

The five-year time period hit the crypto portfolio hard. While the model portfolio is up more than 750% on bitcoin and more than 1,000% on Ethereum, both of these fall outside the five-year window of analysis.

Instead, smaller cryptos like Polygon and VeChainThor have declined from their 2021 highs. For positions recommended within the last five years, the average gain is only 1%.

Retirement Millionaire: B

Written by Dr. David “Doc” Eifrig and his team, Retirement Millionaire aims to set its readers up for a healthy and wealthy retirement.

We don’t want big risks. We want steady, safe gains over time to build a massive nest egg.

Doc also shares his ideas on healthy living. It’s impossible to measure this advice with numbers. But Doc has often shared insights that become the proven opinion of the medical community years later. For example, he was ahead of the curve warning about the threats of persistent inflammation.

Over the past five years, Doc has underperformed his benchmark, the S&P 500. I personally think that benchmark is a little aggressive for Doc’s conservative style, so I give some extra grace here. But Doc loves a challenge.

What’s striking is his win rate. In a game where a 55% win rate can make you rich, 63% of Doc’s picks over the last five years have made money.

Doc’s track record suffers from the same measurement challenge as Stansberry’s Investment Advisory.

Retirement Millionaire has lots of positions opened before our five-year window that are still earning outstanding gains for readers. For example, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) is up 769%… Microsoft is up 1,408%… Alphabet is up 721%… banking giant JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is up 298%… and e-commerce behemoth Amazon (AMZN) is up 407%.

If you look at Retirement Millionaire since its inception in 2008, the model portfolio has posted an average return of 64.7%, versus 71.3% for the S&P 500. But Doc only selected safe, conservative stocks.

What’s more shocking… Doc boasts a win percentage of 72%. His winners outnumber his losers by 2.5-to-1.

And in the 18-year history of Retirement Millionaire, there’s only one “vintage” that has lost money (2021).

If you want to earn real money over the long term, Retirement Millionaire is the best in the business.

The Ferris Report: D

Dan Ferris is here to protect you from disaster.

Dan doesn’t like to be described as bearish. He’s an optimistic person. He sees opportunities in the market.

But as an investor, Dan knows that someday the markets will stop delivering pleasure and start delivering pain.

Unfortunately for The Ferris Report, which we launched in 2022, the market has only delivered pleasure over the past few years.

With average gains near 20%, Dan has lagged the benchmark S&P 500 since inception, which is a short of five years.

However, he has a 64% win rate. And were it not for two relatively quick losses in 2022 and 2025 – on Smith & Wesson (SWBI) and Tempus AI (TEM) – Dan would have done a lot better. Still, losses are losses.

However…

Dan is a bear market investor who has not had the “luck” to invest through a bear market yet.

And average gains near 20% are a great way to grow your wealth. It’s just that the market is so hot, Dan has missed some opportunities.

He’s doing that on purpose, though…

If you recall a few years ago, the hottest fund in the market was Cathie Wood’s high-flying ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK), which bought every overvalued tech stock with little concern for risk management.

When the tech stock market collapsed in 2021, a chart started circulating comparing ARKK’s returns to Berkshire Hathaway’s…

I believe Dan’s risk management will prove out over time.

You’ll see that when we review his Extreme Valueservice in the next part of our Report Card. Dan has published that since 2002. So it has had the benefit of proving Dan’s prowess “through the cycle.” Multiple cycles, in fact. I won’t spoil the grade, but… it’s good.

For now, we’ll settle on a D for The Ferris Report. But if a bear market comes, the work Dan has done over the past four years will prove valuable.

A note about The N.E.W. System…

In September, we launched the New Engine of Wealth (N.E.W.) System to make AI work for you.

Each quarter, this system uses an AI algorithm to build a portfolio of high-quality stocks with the goal of long-term outperformance of the market.

We don’t have enough data to judge it yet. But it will get a grade for its first year in next year’s annual Report Card.

I’ll be back next week to grade our more advanced services with the final part of this year’s Report Card.

Recommended Links:

Stansberry’s No. 1 Recommendation for 2026

It has already risen 185% through THREE major crashes… beat the S&P 500 Index last year, with less risk than stocks… and massively outperformed in the tariff crash. Now, with markets on a knife-edge, five of our most senior experts are stepping forward with all the details of our No. 1 recommendation for 2026. Click here to stream our briefing now.

Four Years of Nvidia Gains… in 24 Hours?

Tech-investing legend Jeff Brown, the man who picked Nvidia before it jumped 32,000%, just recommended THREE new AI trades. They’re to take advantage of a strange phenomenon that has delivered gains big enough to turn $10,000 into $101,700, $151,600, and even a mind-blowing $650,000… all in a 24-hour period. Click here to see the details.

New 52-week highs (as of 1/29/26): ABB (ABBNY), Applied Materials (AMAT), ASML (ASML), Atmus Filtration Technologies (ATMU), BHP (BHP), BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy Fund (DBMF), Donaldson (DCI), EnerSys (ENS), Ero Copper (ERO), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Franklin FTSE Japan Fund (FLJP), Freehold Royalties (FRU.TO), Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Fund (FYLD), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), Alphabet (GOOGL), Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE), Helmerich & Payne (HP), Hubbell (HUBB), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Lincoln Electric (LECO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Mueller Industries (MLI), New York Times (NYT), Ormat Technologies (ORA), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), Invesco Oil & Gas Services Fund (PXJ), Roche (RHHBY), SandRidge Energy (SD), Tenaris (TS), Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U-U.TO), ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), Vale (VALE), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and ExxonMobil (XOM).

In today’s mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris’ Digest yesterday, which discussed the recent run-up in silver… Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

“Dan, I’m with you. I don’t often thank you and Corey enough. Thanks for all your efforts on our behalf.

“Yes, I have a problem! I followed Stansberry’s analysts’ recommendations for SLV and GLD, AND numerous royalty and mining companies. Gold and silver in those forms now are more than 15% of my portfolio. I took some profits on SLV and now reading today’s Digest will widen my trailing stop. It’s crazy times. I thank you for your sanity. And hosting Investor Hour.” – Stansberry Alliance member Jeffrey G.

Good investing,

Matt Weinschenk
Publisher
Baltimore, Maryland
January 30, 2026

Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations

Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT
Microsoft11/11/101,407.5%Retirement MillionaireMSFT
Microsoft02/10/121,396.9%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryADP
Automatic Data Processing10/09/08925.0%Extreme ValueBRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09769.2%Retirement MillionaireGOOGL
Alphabet12/15/16733.2%Retirement MillionaireWRB
W.R. Berkley03/15/12632.8%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisorySII
Sprott01/11/18602.2%Extreme ValueALS-T
Altius Minerals03/26/09595.6%Extreme ValueSI
Silver bullion03/12/20538.7%Extreme ValuePSLV
Sprott Physical Silver Trust04/13/20532.2%Extreme Value

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.

Top 10 Totals5Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc2Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter

Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations

Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationWSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/182,193.2%Crypto CapitalBTC/USD
Bitcoin11/27/182,150.2%Crypto CapitalONE/USD
Harmony12/16/191,019.9%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21935.9%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD
Polygon02/26/21646.8%Crypto Capital

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.

Stansberry Research Hall of Fame

Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.

^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.

Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame

Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital

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© 2026 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or stansberryresearch.com.

Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors.

Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.

This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility.

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PRIVACY & TERMS OF USE

Dear Reader,

We were somewhere in Delaware, stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic…

Miles from the next rest stop, my 5-year-old son suddenly howled that he had to go.

I veered off at the next exit, pulled into a shopping mall, and unbuckled his car seat as quickly as I could…

But on our sprint to the restroom, something stopped me in my tracks.

It was a robot.

Not just any robot – it was Elon Musk’s Optimus.

For months, the financial research firm I work for has been tracking Optimus’ development behind closed doors.

Elon has called it “the biggest product of all time.”

But we believe the implications for investors could be even bigger.

In fact, there’s one stock (not Tesla) that should be on every investor’s radar right now.

Months ago, we predicted:

“It won’t be long before Tesla’s new product is everywhere – on sale in showrooms across America and around the world.”

And now that I’ve seen it with my own eyes, I’m convinced the rollout is happening faster and at a bigger scale than anyone’s prepared for.

One of our top stock experts – whose team has briefed the FBI, the Pentagon, and Fortune 500 CIOs – says the tech behind Optimus could trigger one of the most profound wealth transfers of our lifetime. 

To understand exactly what’s happening… and get the name of the stock he recommends you buy for free today… I strongly urge you to watch this urgent presentation now:

Click here to view it.

Sincerely,

Kelly Brown
Managing Director

P.S. I wasn’t expecting to see Optimus in person, but now that I have… I get it. It’s a 5’8″, 125-pound humanoid robot that can carry 45 pounds while walking at 5 miles per hour – perfect for factory work. Musk believes we’ll eventually see 10 billion of them in circulation. Why? Because once this rollout begins, every business that makes something will want one. This could spark a financial story even bigger than anything you’ve seen from Tesla and Elon. Click here now to see what’s coming next.

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FRIDAY, JANUARY 30^th

GOOD MORNING

As January comes to a close, the S&P 500 and other major indexes traded near record highs, pointing to a broadening rally beyond mega-cap tech. The Russell 2000 and several niche ETFs—ranging from drone-technology to precious metals plays—are outpacing the S&P so far this month.

Corporate moves and the economy offered mixed signals. Dow Inc. said it will cut about 4,500 jobs, citing a push into AI and automation and booking $600–$800 million in severance. Labor-market data stayed firm, with initial unemployment claims modestly down to 209,000. Mortgage rates ticked up to a 30-year average of 6.1% but remain near a three-year low, and the IRS expects higher average tax refunds this season, potentially boosting consumer spending.

Commodities and geopolitics added texture: crude oil and gold futures climbed, supporting energy and miners, while U.S. officials warned of China’s growing manufacturing dominance—a risk to global supply chains that investors are watching.

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TECHNOLOGY

Why Texas Instruments’ 2026 Outlook Has Wall Street Re-Rating It

Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) is on track to break out of a long-term trading range, set a new high, and embark on a significant rally. The company’s Q4 2025 earnings release and 2026 outlook not only affirmed the recovery in analog semiconductor markets but also the importance of those ma…READ THE FULL STORY

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UTILITIES

NextEra Energy: Priced for Perfection, or Justified Premium?

Following a year that was generally good for utilities stocks, it is surprising that NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE: NEE) is “only” up about 24% over the last 12 months. In fact, a significant amount of that growth has come in 2026. NEE stock is up 9.2% in the first month of the year, with about …READ THE FULL STORY

RETAIL/WHOLESALE

Carvana Drops 14% After $1B Accounting Allegations

Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) shares experienced extreme volatility in trading during the last days of January 2026. The stock dropped approximately 14%, trading near $408 per share and erasing a significant portion of its gains from earlier in the year. This sharp decline creates a confusing picture…READ THE FULL STORY

FROM OUR PARTNERS

Elon Warns “America Is Broke”. Trump’s Plan Inside.

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AUTO/TIRES/TRUCKS

After +50% Return in 2025, GM Gets Off to a Strong Start in 2026

U.S. automotive giant General Motors (NYSE: GM) just saw its historic rally get another boost. In 2025, shares of GM delivered a total return of over 54%, marking the stock’s best calendar year performance since its 2010 relisting on the NYSE. The stock saw its latest surge on Jan. 27. Shar…READ THE FULL STORY

TECHNOLOGY

Microsoft Drops After Earnings—Why the Bull Case Holds 

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) was one of the first “Magnificent 7” stocks to report earnings this season. Despite beating on the top and bottom lines, concerns about the return on investment from Microsoft’s robust capital expenditures (CapEx) plans have sent the stock plummetin…READ THE FULL STORY

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[URGENT!] SpaceX Going Public! – Pre-IPO Action!

A growing number of investors are paying attention to developments around private space companies and potential future public listings.

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FINANCE

Capital One Stock Weak After Earnings, Brex Deal in Focus

Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) stock is down approximately 6% one week after the bank’s earnings report on Jan. 22. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company delivered $15.62 billion in revenue, beating expectations for $15.49 billion. However, the bottom line was a miss with earnings p…READ THE FULL STORY

TECHNOLOGY

5 Stocks to Buy in February: Last Year’s Winners Aren’t Done Yet

2026 is well underway and off to a bullish start. The S&P 500 and other major indices are ending January at record highs, and the Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT), which tracks small-cap stocks, is leading the charge. The main point is that the sector rotation seen over the past 18 months is s…READ THE FULL STORY

TECHNOLOGY

Meta Soars After-Hours, Forecasting Fastest Growth Since 2021

After months of being down and out, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) may have just changed the narrative around its business in a big way. In October, the Magnificent Seven stock tanked 11% after its Q3 earnings report, driven by fears of out-of-control artificial intelligence (AI) spending. However…READ THE FULL STORY

AUTO/TIRES/TRUCKS

Could Tesla’s Q4 Earnings Fuel the Next Rally?

Electric vehicle king Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) looks set for fresh gains after its Q4 earnings report dispelled fears that its best days were behind it. With a major source of uncertainty removed, the bulls should now have more than enough ammunition to get this rally back on track. Shares of TS…READ THE FULL STORY

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Is Take-Two Interactive the Last Pure-Play Gaming Stock?

European video game developer UbiSoft Entertainment (OTCMKTS: UBSFY) saw its stock plummet last week following a wave of cancellations, most notably of the “Prince of Persia: Sands of Time Remake.” UbiSoft cancelled six games in total and announced a major business reset to shrink its studio coun…READ THE FULL STORY

FRIDAY’S EARLY BIRD STOCK OF THE DAY

A Stock With Insider Buying:Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC)

Wells Fargo & Co. is a diversified and community-based financial services company, which engages in the provision of banking, insurance, investments, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance products and services. It operates through the following segments: Consumer Banking and Lending, Commercial Banking, Corporate and Investment Banking, and Wealth and Investment Management. The Consumer Banking and Lending segment offers consumer and small business banking, home lending, credit cards…

Should I Buy Wells Fargo & Company Stock? WFC Bull and Bear Case Explained

These insights were generated using artificial intelligence. They are based on proprietary MarketBeat data, news articles, and custom LLM A.I. algorithms. This analysis of Wells Fargo & Company was last updated on Wednesday, January 28, 2026 at 6:13 PM.

Wells Fargo & Company Bull Case

• The current stock price is around $88, which may present a buying opportunity for investors looking for value in the financial sector.
• The company reported a strong earnings per share (EPS) of $1.76, exceeding analysts’ expectations, indicating robust financial performance.
• Wells Fargo & Company has shown a year-over-year revenue growth of 4.5%, suggesting a positive trend in its business operations.
• The firm has a solid return on equity of 12.90%, reflecting effective management and profitability relative to shareholders’ equity.
• With a dividend yield of 2.1% and a payout ratio of 28.71%, Wells Fargo & Company offers a reliable income stream for investors seeking dividends.

Wells Fargo & Company Bear Case

• The company’s revenue of $11.97 billion for the latest quarter fell short of the consensus estimate, raising concerns about future growth potential.
• Wells Fargo & Company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.05, which may indicate higher financial risk compared to its peers.
• Despite a positive EPS, the overall market sentiment towards bank stocks has been cautious, which could impact stock performance.
• Analysts have mixed ratings, with some maintaining a “hold” rating, suggesting uncertainty about the stock’s future trajectory.
• The stock has a 52-week high of $97.76, indicating that it may be trading closer to its peak, which could limit upside potential for new investors.

VIEW TODAY’S STOCK PICK

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Critical Materials Needed for a Winning ETF

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These Small Caps Just Hit Critical Inflection Levels (From Market Crux)

3 Large Cap Stocks Announce Big Buyback Boosts Amid +20% Falls

Written by Leo Miller on January 28, 2026 

Article Highlights

• Automatic Data Processing, CoStar Group, and Paychex all expanded buyback capacity after steep share-price declines.
• Each authorization equals a meaningful slice of market cap, suggesting management confidence at current levels.
• CoStar stands out for pairing a large repurchase plan with updated forward commentary as it ramps investment.

Several large-cap stocks just issued big-time buyback capacity increases. These buyback boosts come as all three stocks have taken huge tumbles over the past several months, down 20% or more from their highs. The combination of these factors suggests that management teams at these companies may view their shares as undervalued. 

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Slow Hiring Hurts ADP, Fires Back With Big Repurchase Plan

First up is Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ: ADP). Since hitting an all-time closing high near $321 in June of 2025, ADP shares have retreated significantly, dropping 20%. The company’s fiscal Q1 earnings report was strong, but its shares still fell by almost 7% the day following. (Note that ADP’s fiscal year and calendar year are not aligned). 

ADP beat estimates on sales and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and forecasted steady growth going forward, combined with margin expansion. However, the company indicated weakness in the job market.

In aggregate, ADP clients did not increase their headcount last quarter, suggesting a weak hiring environment. 

ADP often charges customers per employee, so this is a headwind for the company.

However, it is possible that ADP believes the sell-off in its shares is overdone.

On Jan. 14, the company announced a $6 billion share buyback program. This program is very sizable, equal to around 5.8% of the company’s $104 billion market capitalization.

This gives the company a significant ability to lower its outstanding share count, spreading its value over fewer shares. With the buyback program and the Jan. 28 earnings report as potential near-term catalysts, this is a stock to watch going forward. 

CoStar Tanks as Battle With Zillow Heats Up

CoStar Group (NASDAQ: CSGP) is a $28 billion data, analytics, and marketplace software provider for the commercial real estate industry. The company has made moves to challenge Zillow Group’s (NASDAQ: ZG) dominance in the residential real estate marketplace through its websites, like Homes.com.

CoStar hit its 52-week closing high back in August of 2025 near $97, a figure that was just a few dollars below its all-time closing high from 2021. Since then, the stock has lost 32% of its value, with a notable 10% loss coming after CoStar’s latest earnings. The company also beat estimates on sales, adjusted EPS, and even boosted its full-year 2025 guidance.

CoStar is investing aggressively to compete with Zillow, allocating significant resources toward artificial intelligence tools. This seems to have scared off many investors, as these investments will weigh on margins.

With shares down big, CoStar announced a $1.5 billion share buyback program on Jan. 7. This is equal to 5.4% of the company’s market capitalization, a signal of management confidence going forward. Notably, the company also increased its 2026 guidance and said that investment would moderate during the year.

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PAYX Approves $1B Buyback With Shares Down +30%

Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX) is another company in the payroll, human resources, and benefits solutions space. However, Paychex tends to focus more on small and medium-sized businesses, while ADP’s clients are often much larger. Like ADP, Paychex hit its 52-week and all-time closing high back in June of 2025, trading near $157. Shares have moved steeply in the opposite direction since, down around 32%.

The stock’s biggest stumble came after its earnings report in late June, when shares dropped almost 10% in one day. The firm met or exceeded estimates on sales and adjusted EPS. However, around $146 million in costs related to Paychex’s acquisition of Paycor caused non-adjusted operating income to fall by 11%. Additionally, hiring market uncertainties have put pressure on the stock, as they have on ADP.

On Jan. 16, Paychex announced a $1 billion share repurchase program, a potential sign that management sees value in the stock. The program is equal to a solid 2.6% of Paychex’s $38 billion market capitalization.

Notably, the company repurchased $290 million in shares over the past 12 months. Thus, the company has the capability to greatly increase its buyback spending pace now.

Watchlist Add: CoStar

These three names are all flashing confident signals to investors through their new buyback authorizations. Among this group, CoStar is particularly interesting. The company has already established itself as a stalwart in the commercial real estate space. The possibility of doing the same in retail would make the firm a very formidable force. The company’s huge buyback announcement and updated guidance are encouraging signs.

Read this article online ›

Further Reading

• Northrop Grumman Flashed a Buy Signal—And the Market Backed It Up
• Washington Thinks They Own Your Bank Account (From Priority Gold)
• United Parcel Service Transitions to Growth: Accumulation Begins
• Ends Soon: Download the Overnight Income Project (From ProsperityPub)
• Mega-Cap Earnings Could Decide the Tech Sector’s Next Big Move
• Bank of America’s Rock-Bottom P/E and 25% Upside Potential
• 3 European Stocks Built to Shrug Off Tariffs

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Refund From 1933: Trump’s Reset May Create Instant Wealth (From American Hartford Gold)

Microsoft Drops After Earnings—Why the Bull Case Holds

Written by Chris Markoch on January 29, 2026 

Key Takeaways

• Microsoft stock plunged after earnings despite beating estimates, as investors reacted to heavy AI infrastructure spending.
• Azure’s 39% growth and continued demand signal Microsoft is investing aggressively to secure long-term leadership.
• Analysts still see roughly 40% upside, suggesting the sell-off may be a buying opportunity rather than a trend reversal.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) was one of the first “Magnificent 7” stocks to report earnings this season. Despite beating on the top and bottom lines, concerns about the return on investment from Microsoft’s robust capital expenditures (CapEx) plans have sent the stock plummeting.

In fact, MSFT stock was down about 11% in midday trading on Jan. 29, the day after the report. That was the largest intraday loss since March 16, 2020—a wild reversal of fortunes for a stock that was trading at an all-time high (ATH) just three months prior to the earnings report.

Microsoft reported earnings per share (EPS) of $4.14 on revenue of $81.27 billion. Both numbers were higher than expectations for EPS of $3.86 on revenue of $80.28 billion. However, investors believe that much of Microsoft’s growth is already reflected in the stock price. Even year-over-year (YOY) growth of 39% in its Azure cloud computing business wasn’t good enough to spark a rally.

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Microsoft Is Playing a Long Game

Microsoft and other hyperscalers have become the poster children for the “AI bubble” narrative. Companies like Microsoft, Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) are spending billions to build data centers to house the servers, chips, and other pieces of infrastructure needed to meet demand from artificial intelligence (AI).

The concern is that the AI applications at the top of the AI stack may never develop as expected. If that’s the case, then all this spending will prove to be an unnecessary drag on corporate profits for these technology stocks. 

What gets lost in this “circular debate” about circular financing and future growth is that Microsoft is playing a long game. And it’s telling investors exactly what the likely outcome will be.

The company is committing to its current and future capital expenditure spending for one reason. It can’t build fast enough to meet demand.

That’s a similar story to the one investors are hearing from companies like NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO). 

The takeaway is that MSFT stock may look very different for traders and investors. Traders have likely already positioned for earnings volatility and the institutional reaction that follows.

But for investors, this does not seem like a time to panic.

Analysts Are Still Bullish on MSFT Stock

The day after earnings, the headlines say analysts are lowering their price targets for MSFT stock.

That’s true, but context matters. In many cases, the revised targets are still well above the Street’s consensus price target of $597.41, which implies about 40% upside from the stock’s price as of this writing.

That doesn’t guarantee a 40% return. But it suggests Wall Street still sees meaningful upside even after trimming expectations. In that light, the earnings sell-off looks more like a timing issue than a broken thesis.

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MSFT Stock Drop Is More Likely a Pause Than a Reversal

In midday trading the day after the earnings report, MSFT stock showed signs that the sell-off was abating. Having said that, timing a stock’s reversal is tricky in any environment, and especially after a market-moving event, like the company’s earnings report.

That means that Microsoft may still have further to fall. However, MSFT stock was up approximately 10% in the five trading days prior to earnings. The sell-off has erased those gains and pushed the stock down to levels not seen since May 2025.

That’s where the opportunity may lie. Microsoft stock is now flashing strong oversold signals. That supports the idea that the price actionfollowing the report is more of a pause to the recovery than a reversal.

Read this article online ›

Recommended Stories

• Carvana Drops 14% After $1B Accounting Allegations
• The truth nobody is telling about gold(From Porter & Company)
• After +50% Return in 2025, GM Gets Off to a Strong Start in 2026
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• 5 Stocks to Buy in February: Last Year’s Winners Aren’t Done Yet
• Meta Soars After-Hours, Forecasting Fastest Growth Since 2021

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January 30, 2026  |  Read Online  |  Send Feedback

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Shutdown Deal. Trump’s Fed Pick. Reforms in Venezuela.

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FBI Raids Election Office in Georgia

The FBI carried out a raid of an election office in Fulton County, Georgia. This was allegedly related to the 2020 elections and is part of an ongoing investigation.

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FACTS MATTER

Trump Issues Warning to Canada

Today, let’s go through a few recent developments with the Trump administration: the escalating war of words with Canada, the citizenship verification order by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, as well as the effort to denaturalize recently naturalized U.S. citizens whose conduct justifies such an action.

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THE REPORT

Man Accused of Stealing Billions in Crypto Scam Is Captured Abroad

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The False Promise of Antidepressants

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CALIFORNIA INSIDER

California Pipeline Closes, 100 Trucks Hit Roads: What Happens Next?

California’s fuel system is under pressure, not because demand has fallen, but because the path from oil to fuel has narrowed. What happens when pipelines shut down and oil that once flowed underground now requires nearly 100 trucks a day on Kern County roads?

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This Beaten-Down Coffee Giant Is Eyeing a Recovery

By Ethan Goldman, junior analyst, Chaikin AnalyticsDon’t call it a comeback quite yet, folks…

Starbucks (SBUX) is still in dire straits. The coffee giant’s stock is down nearly 14% over the past year.

But its latest quarterly report earlier this week showed signs of a possible turnaround…

Of course, at the helm of this change is none other than Brian Niccol.

Regular readers will recall that in August 2024, Starbucks announced that Niccol would be joining the company as CEO.

And he brought more than just savvy marketing skills…

Remember, Niccol successfully turned around other fast-food names at Yum Brands (YUM). He also got the burrito chain Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) back on its feet before he went to Starbucks.

From the day Chipotle announced that Niccol would be joining the company to the day it announced his departure, CMG shares soared an incredible 927%.

It’s easy to see why investors are searching for the first signs of Starbucks’ revival. No one wants to miss more stock gains crafted by Niccol.

So let’s take a closer look today. And we’ll see what the Power Gauge thinks, too…Recommended Links:

Four Years of Nvidia Gains… in 24 Hours?

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The ‘Smart Money’ Places New Bets on Starbucks’ Stock

On Wednesday, Starbucks reported earnings for the first quarter of its 2026 fiscal year. The company touted year-over-year growth of 3% in net revenue for its North America segment.

Now, the company saw its operating margins and income shrink. Starbucks says that this was due to two factors…

The first was labor investments to support its “Back to Starbucks” plan. You see, Starbucks is putting its money where its mouth is. The company knows it needs to invest in itself in order to change.

And the second factor was inflationary pressures. Starbucks said this was due to higher than usual coffee pricing and tariffs.

To be clear, Starbucks also missed its earnings per share (“EPS”) estimates by about 5% for the quarter.

That said, this was the closest Starbucks came to beating expectations in the past four quarters. And the earnings misses have been shrinking over the past three quarterly periods.

Meanwhile, the Power Gauge has picked up on some changes in the stock. You’ll see what I mean in the chart below…As I said earlier, Starbucks’ stock has been struggling in recent months.

But earlier this month, Starbucks’ relative strength versus the broad market jumped higher. And so did its Chaikin Money Flow – which measures the so-called “smart money” activity on Wall Street. Institutional investors started piling into the stock.

You see, on January 15, Starbucks announced a new goal for its coffeehouses in America. The company said it planned to add at least one “coffeehouse coach” to nearly every U.S. store by the end of the year.

As regular readers will recall, Starbucks customers felt the company had “lost its way”…

In 2024, Bloomberg reported that about 8% of customers waited between 15 and 30 minutes to get their orders. It’s no surprise that those kinds of wait times would drive folks to other options. 

Starbucks’ leadership knew that couldn’t last. The coffeehouse coach is meant to train and support both partners and leaders when they need it most.

The plan to expand this role seems to have excited the smart money on Wall Street. As I said, institutional investors started scooping up Starbucks’ stock in the wake of the announcement. 

It’s the second and largest surge of smart-money buying activity in six months. And thanks to these big investors, Starbucks’ relative strength ticked into positive territory for the first time since last April.

Now, this may sound like Starbucks’ recovery is in its past. But the Power Gauge says that isn’t the case…

Starbucks gets a “neutral-” overall rating in our system right now. This rating happens when a “bearish” or worse stock is trading above its long-term trend line.

Put simply, the Power Gauge has picked up on some positive signs recently. But those aren’t enough to save the stock’s overall rating. Our system still sees plenty of red flags “under the hood.”

Of course, there’s a lot that could go wrong before the stock takes off. But for now, the smart money sees something in part of Niccol’s “Back to Starbucks” plan. 

The Power Gauge says that it’s too early to bet on a full-on recovery just yet. However, I’ll have an eye on Starbucks for some stronger positive signals in our system. Keep the stock on your radar.

Good investing,

Ethan Goldman

Market View

Major Indexes and Notable Sectors  # HLD:    BULLISH    NEUTRAL    BEARISHDow 30

+0.02%719 4S&P 500

-0.2%113263 124Nasdaq

-0.6%2750 29Small Caps

+0.03%631947 311Bonds

+0.02%Communication Services

+2.6%00 0

— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks are more Bullish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.*  *  *  *

Sector Tracker

Sector movement over the last 5 daysEnergy+3.27%Communication+3.05%Utilities+1.45%Information Technology+1.37%Materials+0.97%Real Estate+0.56%Industrials+0.22%Consumer Staples-0.17%Financial-0.48%Consumer Discretionary-1.17%Health Care-2.82%*  *  *  *

Industry Focus

Health Care Equipment Services93421

Over the past 6 months, the Health Care Equipment subsector (XHE) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -0.09%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #17 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 1 slot over the past week.Indicative StocksAORTArtivion, Inc.ZBHZimmer Biomet HoldinBAXBaxter International*  *  *  *

Top Movers

GainersLUV+18.7%RCL+18.65%META+10.4%NCLH+10.25%CCL+8.46%LosersLVS-13.96%URI-12.86%FSLR-10.18%MSFT-9.99%NOW-9.94%*  *  *  *

Earnings Report

Earnings SurprisesIP 
International Paper Company Q4 $-0.08 Missed by $-0.33DOW 
Dow Inc. Q4 $-0.34 Beat by $0.17WY 
Weyerhaeuser Company Q4 $-0.09 Beat by $0.04HIG 
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Q4 $4.06 Beat by $0.84VLO 
Valero Energy Corporation Q4 $3.82 Beat by $0.55*  *  *  *

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Hello Peter Anthony Hovis,

The Changing of the Guard

The air in the financial districts turned heavy today as a months-long game of political musical chairs appeared to reach its crescendo.

Investors, who had spent the better part of the year trying to decipher the future of U.S. monetary policy, found themselves reacting to a sudden shift in the winds blowing from the White House.

The day began with a flurry of speculation that Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor known for his historically disciplined stance on inflation, had become the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell.

This wasn’t just idle chatter; the rumor mill kicked into high gear following reports that Warsh had visited the White House on Thursday.

Kevin Warsh (Photo: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg)

As the news spread, the bond market—the often-sober sibling to the more excitable stock market—suffered a sudden bout of nerves.

Treasury yields pushed higher as traders began to price in the possibility of a “Warsh Fed.” While President Trump has openly signaled his desire for a leader who will cut rates “further and faster,” the market’s memory of Warsh is one of a hawk who prioritizes policy discipline over easy money. Sean Callow, a senior analyst at ITC Markets, summed up the tension perfectly, noting that whatever may be said now, Warsh has a long hawkish history that markets haven’t forgotten, which pushed the dollar and yields upward.

The equity markets didn’t escape the turbulence.

The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were already under pressure following a disappointing earnings signal from Microsoft, which suffered its worst drop in years. The added uncertainty of a leadership transition at the world’s most powerful central bank provided little comfort. President Trump, speaking at a premiere for the documentary “Melania,” confirmed he would make his formal announcement on Friday morning.

The weight of that looming decision felt palpable across trading floors, especially as betting markets like Polymarket saw the odds of a Warsh nomination leap to over 85%.

In the world of alternative assets, the narrative of “digital gold” faced a brutal reality check.

While traditional gold reached staggering heights near $5,600 earlier in the day before experiencing a “flash crash” and settling lower, Bitcoin suffered a far more consistent rout. The leading cryptocurrency slumped to fresh two-month lows, sliding toward $81,000.

For many, the breakdown in Bitcoin’s correlation with gold during a period of geopolitical upheaval was telling. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, observed that cryptocurrencies no longer appeared to be the alternative to fiat money or the hedge they were once claimed to be.

As the sun set on today’s session, the financial world remained in a defensive crouch, waiting for the President’s Friday morning reveal.

The shift in sentiment was underscored by $4.8 billion in outflows from Bitcoin ETFs over the last three months, a streak that suggests the appetite for high-risk “digital havens” is being eclipsed by a return to traditional safety—or simply the safety of cash.

With liquidity expected to be lower over the weekend, analysts like Adam McCarthy at Kaiko are warning that the slide could continue, with a break below $80,000 looking increasingly likely if the bearish mood persists.

The Digital Backbone of China’s Industrial Heartland

Today’s Stock Pick: Full Truck Alliance (YMM)

In the sprawling industrial heartland of China, where over 30 million trucks crisscross highways carrying everything from fresh produce to factory components, Full Truck Alliance is powering the marketplace.

It is the digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to keep the logistics industry humming.

(Source: Full Truck Alliance)

Besides matching orders, truckers can buy fuel, purchase trucks, secure insurance, and even access credit without ever leaving the app. Gas station operators pay to be featured. Truck manufacturers get sales leads. Highway toll operators tap into the network. Each of these revenue streams compounds the platform’s profitability while deepening user lock-in.

(Source: Bloomberg)

The business was good in the second quarter. Revenue climbed 10.8% year-over-year to RMB 3.36 billion (roughly $450 million), while net income surged 64.2%.

(Source: Full Truck Alliance)

The platform is large and growing: Full Truck Alliance is a big player. Just look at the second quarter’s volume numbers. An average of 3.16 million shippers posted orders on the FTA platform each month, matched with 4.34 million active truckers who fulfilled shipping orders over the trailing twelve months.

All in all, the platform facilitated 60.8 million fulfilled orders during the quarter alone, representing a 22.3% jump from the previous year.

(Source: Full Truck Alliance)

However, this is NOT just about volume.

It’s about network effects, which is a classic Silicon Valley playbook.

As more shippers join the platform seeking trucks, more truckers sign up seeking loads. As the trucker base expands, the platform becomes even more attractive to shippers who need reliable, quick matches.

It’s a virtuous cycle that’s extraordinarily difficult for competitors to replicate.

(Source: Full Truck Alliance)

More importantly, some estimates suggest Full Truck Alliance controls approximately 60% of the digital freight matching market in China.In a country where the road transportation market was worth an estimated $1.5 trillion in 2023, even a modest slice represents enormous opportunity.Best of all, the company’s gross profit margins hover near 90%, a testament to the capital-light nature of the business model. Unlike traditional logistics companies weighed down by trucks, warehouses, and fuel costs, Full Truck Alliance simply facilitates matches and takes a cut. It may create a strong operating leverage for the company.Bottom line: Full Truck Alliance is trading at a forward P/E ratio around 14. The valuation is solid when we consider that analysts have set average price targets around $10 per share.

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