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December 12, 2025 TODAY IN HISTORY Pennsylvania becomes the second state to ratify the United States Constitution. 1787 TOP STORIES Trump Willing to Work With Democrats on Health Care
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“Let not your heart be disturbed… Am I not here, who is your Mother? Are you not under my protection? Am I not your health? Are you not happily within my fold? What else do you wish? Do not grieve nor be disturbed by anything.” -Our Lady of Guadalupe to St. Juan Diego
Knowing our past, our wounds, and our resulting emotional, mental, and spiritual tendencies helps us recognize our weak points and “triggers.” Awareness of these triggers means that they can’t sneak up on us and that we are always prepared for them. It also shows us the virtues we must actively cultivate to strengthen our souls against these impulses. Importantly, this kind of self-knowledge also reveals the people and things in our past that we need to forgive! We just can’t get around forgiveness. It is a huge part of the spiritual life. No wonder Our Lord spent so much time discussing it in the Gospels and wove it into the Our Father prayer! —Good Catholic Digital Content Series, Confession
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The daily examination of conscience is an ancient Catholic practice. It’s very simple, and it’s designed to help us identify our sins and weaknesses so that we can improve and grow stronger in the spiritual life. Basically, it consists in taking a few minutes at the end of the day to prayerfully review our actions in the light of God’s commandments. The Act of Contrition is often said afterwards. The daily examination also serves as an excellent ongoing preparation for regular Confession.
Actively reflecting on the high and low points of the day can help you live more intentionally and bring a renewed sense of resolve into the following day.
O my God, I am heartily sorry for having offended Thee, and I detest all my sins because of Thy just punishments, but most of all because they offend Thee, my God, Who art all good and deserving of all my love. I firmly resolve with the help of Thy grace to sin no more and to avoid the near occasions of sin. Amen.
It is God’s love that has brought you into existence and to this exact moment. Practice looking for His hand in your day.
Remember our Faith is founded upon a Person—Christ! Renew your personal love and devotion to Him.
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Hello All,
Please join us, our Zoom Link is below for this Saturday’ssession at 8:00 AM PST 12/13/2025. I am thankful for all of you. We show gratitude to God by “giving thanks in all circumstances …” [1Thess. 5:18a]
We will gather in two days to fellowship, but will have no prepared notes. I had a dental procedure last Friday and I am recovering slowly. Thus my notes are not as fully formed as I would like them. In addition we may fulfill our role as Christians by the simple act of fellowship and discuss the coming celebration of Jesus’ birth; the health challenges of one of the very earliest members of the Young Family – Leila Lushanlo; and the gift of MAHA.
We will start at the usual time and keep our time open for an hour so all may come and go as their own time permits.
As we work our way through the early chapters of Matthew; in Chapter 5 we come across the beatitudes. I would suggest a refreshing read of Matthew 5:13-16(Salt and Light) and then go immediately to Matthew 28:16-20 (Great Commission). Jesus has each of you in mind when uttering those words, and when read as a unit and not as separate and distinct events of Jesus ministry we more fully understand our sense of purpose.
May the Holy Spirit bless you, keep you and bring you His peace.
Love, hank
Zoom Link:
For Study, Prayer and Fellowship – 8:00 AM PST 12/13/2025:
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Study Notes: None for this day.
Hank Hohenstein, OFS
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If You Keep Cash In A U.S. Bank Account… Read This NOW (From Banyan Hill Publishing)
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson on December 9, 2025
Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) has just completed one of the market’s most remarkable comebacks. Just a few years after facing bankruptcy concerns that sent its stock tumbling to an all-time low of $3.72, the company is now joining the prestigious S&P 500 index. This milestone event, effective before the market opens on Dec. 22, 2025, serves as a powerful validation of a dramatic operational and financial turnaround that has seen the stock gain over 10,000% from its 2022 lows.
The market’s reaction to the news was immediate and decisive. Carvana’s stock price jumped by double digits to a new 52-week high of $456.97 on explosive trading volume of over 14 million shares, nearly four times its daily average. This is more than a symbolic victory; it is a significant technical event that will force a new wave of institutional buying, cementing the company’s status as a high-growth industry leader.
Elon Musk’s Starlink project is generating major speculation ahead of a potential IPO that some analysts believe could reach a historic $100 billion valuation. According to James Altucher, there may be a smart “backdoor” way for everyday investors to position ahead of that event without needing traditional IPO access — and he says it can be done for under $100. He’s also sharing a free ticker tied to this trend for anyone who wants to take a closer look.Click here to learn more
Carvana’s inclusion in the S&P 500 creates a powerful and automatic demand for its shares, a phenomenon known as the Index Effect. The reason lies in the mechanics of modern investing. An estimated $13 trillion in assets is directly indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500. The massive passive funds and ETFs that track this index are now obligated to purchase Carvana stock to mirror the index’s composition accurately. For these funds, buying is not a choice based on valuation or sentiment; it is a mandate.
This creates a significant, near-term demand shock. The forced buying from passive funds provides a strong technical tailwind and a new level of support for the share price as the inclusion date approaches. This dynamic also puts immense pressure on short sellers, investors who bet that a stock’s price will fall. As of mid-November, over 11 million shares of Carvana were held short. The sudden, inelastic demand from index funds can trigger a short squeeze, a scenario where short sellers are forced to buy back shares to close out their losing positions. This rush to buy adds fuel to the fire, further accelerating the stock’s upward price momentum.
While the index news is a powerful catalyst, it was earned, not given. Carvana’s inclusion was made possible only after the company met the S&P’s strict financial criteria, chief among them being sustained profitability under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). This achievement serves as an institutional stamp of approval on a business that has fundamentally transformed itself from a cash-burning growth story into a profitable industry leader.
The data from its recent financial reports tells the story of this operational success.
This impressive financial recovery is the result of concrete operational improvements. By integrating its acquired ADESA auction sites, the company has positioned inventory closer to customers, cutting average delivery times by a full day. In a pilot program in Phoenix, Carvana is now achieving same-day or next-day delivery for 40% of customers, a capability that sets a new standard for the industry.
Gold has shattered records, soaring past $3,800 an ounce…
But Stansberry Senior Partner Dr. David “Doc” Eifrig says history shows it could be on the verge of its biggest bull run in over half a century.Click here for the full details on this developing gold story.
Carvana’s recent financial performance has sparked debate over the stock’s high valuation, with its price-to-earnings ratio(P/E) now exceeding 100. This premium reflects the market’s confidence in Carvana’s disruptive potential and its progress toward its long-term target of selling 3 million vehicles annually with industry-leading profit margins.
Investors have also noted the recent pattern of stock sales by top executives. However, these transactions are typically executed under pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 trading plans, which allow insiders to sell shares for personal financial management and diversification. Critically, key insiders, including CEO Ernie Garcia III, continue to retain substantial equity stakes, ensuring their long-term interests remain closely aligned with those of shareholders.
With its entry into the S&P 500, Carvana is embarking on a new era. The narrative has decisively shifted from survival to market share dominance. Management’s guidance reflects this confidence, forecasting over 150,000 retail units sold in the fourth quarter and full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of its $2 to $2.2 billion range. For investors, the focus now turns to execution as Carvana leverages its powerful e-commerce platform and fortified balance sheet to redefine the future of automotiveretail.
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Authored by Jordan Chussler. Originally Published: 12/3/2025.
2025 has been a mixed bag for consumer staples companies in the retail sector. While Target’s (NYSE: TGT) well-documented struggles have produced a year-to-date (YTD) loss of more than 34%, other retailers have fared much better.
Walmart (NYSE: WMT), for example, has shown an ability to adapt to President Trump’s tariff policies and the resulting shifts in consumer behavior.
The Treasury Department just issued a stunning warning:
U.S. banks could lose up to $6.6 trillion of customer deposits as Americans rush into a new form of money…
That’s just been authorized under President Trump’s highly controversial new law, S.1582.Go here for details, while you still have time to get ahead of it.
The company—a dividend king, the largest grocer in the United States, and an increasingly significant e-commerce competitor—has posted a YTD gain of nearly 25%.
Membership-only warehouse club Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) sits somewhere in the middle with a modest 1.34% YTD gain.
Throughout 2025, Costco shareholders have weathered corrections of more than 17%, 12% and 8% at various points.
With the calendar about to turn to 2026, current and prospective investors are hoping for a bounce-back year driven by Costco’s loyal members, solid underlying fundamentals and bullish forecasts from Wall Street analysts.
On Monday, it was reported that Costco is suing the Trump administration and seeking a refund for import taxes the U.S. Court of International Trade in New York and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington have deemed “illegal.”
While the litigation may take months to resolve, it underscores the broader challenges the company has faced—and how it has navigated them.
A key response has been expanding Costco’s private-label brand, Kirkland Signature, which celebrated its 30th anniversary in 2025. According to president and CEO Ron Vachris’s fiscal year (FY) 2025 Q4 earnings callcomments, “Kirkland Signature sales penetration continues to increase, bringing even more high-quality value to our members while offsetting potentially inflationary impacts from tariffs.”
That strategy appears to be working. Costco has broadened Kirkland Signature offerings to provide members high-quality alternatives to tariff-impacted goods. CFO Gary Millerchip said those products typically deliver 15% to 20% better value compared with national brands of comparable quality.
In Q4 alone, Costco launched more than 30 new Kirkland Signature items, while ancillary businesses—including the company’s pharmacy, optical and hearing-aid operations—all posted strong quarters. Vachris also noted that Costco’s merchants adjusted plans to mitigate tariff impacts for the warehouse chain.
Those moves helped the company stay on a steady growth path. In FY 2025, Costco opened 27 new warehouses, bringing the total to 914, and plans 35 additional locations in FY 2026 across domestic and international markets.
The company has also increased its e-commerce presence: online sales topped $19.6 billion (a 15% year-over-year increase), while digitally enabled sales surpassed $27 billion for FY 2025.
The warehouse club’s core business—selling memberships—maintains an impressively high renewal rate of about 90% in the United States and Canada. That helped Costco beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines when it reported FY 2025 Q4 earnings on Sept. 25—its ninth earnings beat in the last 10 quarters.
However, the stock was punished after the earnings release, sliding more than 6% before finding a bottom on Nov. 24. Since then, COST is up more than 4%, and investors are looking ahead to FY 2026 with renewed interest.
Earnings are expected to grow about 9.21% next year, from $18.03 per share to $19.69. The company reported quarterly revenue rose 8.1% year over year to $86.16 billion; net income increased to $2.61 billion, up more than 11% YOY; and paid memberships reached 81 million, up 6.3% YOY.
That performance reflects disciplined management and healthy financials. From 2022 to 2025, Costco’s net income grew at an annual average rate of 11.15%, while annualized earnings per share (EPS) growth averaged 11.53% over the same period.
Perhaps most notably, the company’s net cash from operating activities rose more than 80% from 2022 to 2025, increasing from $7.39 billion to $13.33 billion.
Of the 32 analysts covering Costco, the consensus is a Moderate Buy: 19 assign a Buy rating, 13 assign a Hold, and none a Sell.
Analysts’ average 12-month price target of $1,027.75 implies roughly 11.47% upside from current levels. While that may not signal explosive upside, it is complemented by a dividend yield of 0.56%, which equates to about $5.20 per share annually at current prices.
Over the past year, institutional ownership(68.48%) has remained solid, with 3,106 buyers outnumbering 2,596 sellers. That has produced inflows of more than $51 billion versus outflows near $27 billion.
At the same time, Wall Street’s skeptics are proceeding cautiously: short interest in Costco currently sits at just 1.63% of the float.
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Me: Learn history… Dalio: It’s all happened before… Toews: Retirement portfolios are vulnerable… Solomon: There’s nothing new under the sun… Me again: We can help (but it’s up to you)…
Editor’s note: Our Stansberry Research offices are closed today as our team enjoys some deserved time off and celebrates the holiday season. So we’re republishing a missive from regular Friday Digest essayist, Extreme Value and The Ferris Report editor, and Stansberry Investor Hour co-host Dan Ferris.
We originally published this essay back in April of this year. But we think you’ll find the insights and lessons – about the importance of understanding history to navigate today’s market – as timely as ever. It’s the kind of long-term view that Dan uniquely can provide. Enjoy…
Subscribers to my Extreme Value and The Ferris Report newsletters know I often introduce a stock recommendation by walking through the company’s life story.
That exercise is especially valuable when there is a straight line from the founding or some early point in the company’s history to the present. By that, I mean something like consistent leadership and a culture that kept the business on track, and which I believe will remain successful.
Learning to understand the longer arc of financial and economic history became a much more important skill for investors over the past few years…
In 2020, we had the worst pandemic since 1918, whose economic effects (higher inflation among them) are still with us today.
In 2022, we faced the steepest interest-rate-hiking cycle in history, with the only precedent occurring more than 40 years before (in 1980). Interest rates remain well above 2022 levels.
If investors didn’t take the hint after those events, Donald Trump’s trade war has finally made understanding history a nonnegotiable requirement.
Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund. He has researched and written about centuries of historical precedents for what’s happening now. In a recent Bloomberg interview with investor Barry Ritholtz, Dalio said…
The one thing that I learned about early on, particularly when the dollar in 1971 was broken from gold, is that many things that surprised me had never happened in my lifetime before, but they happened many times in history before.
Most investors seem unaware that they’re witnessing events with many historical precedents from before they were born. In a recent Reddit post, Dalio described the three biggest oft-repeated historical events happening today…
Creating a lot of debt and money, big wealth and political gaps, and the rise of [a] new world power (China) challenging an existing one (the US)…
We won’t delve into each of those areas today, but I believe Dalio is right. You should get a basic understanding of them, especially debt and money creation and the China/U.S. power struggle.
Philip Toews, founder and CEO of New York-based Toews Asset Management, wrote in a commentary in Barron’s…
Just as pandemic preparedness suffered from historical amnesia, investment strategies are constructed with a blind spot for market regimes that haven’t occurred within most professionals’ careers.
Toews calls out retirement portfolios as being particularly vulnerable, since they’ve all been built based on assumptions that have prevailed since 1980. As he puts it…
Bonds are reliable portfolio stabilizers. Stock market corrections will be relatively brief and followed by strong recoveries. Inflation is a largely conquered threat.
And he is not subtle about the implications of those vulnerabilities…
These assumptions work brilliantly in back-tests covering recent decades. But extending that historical lens reveals market regimes that would devastate today’s conventional portfolio construction.
In other words, multidecade market regimes become so ingrained in our collective investment psychology that we struggle to even contemplate alternatives—until they arrive with devastating force.
Toews’ short piece includes “devastate,” “devastation,” and “devastating” a total of six times. The repetition is neither an accident nor an overstatement.
The portfolio you think is perfect could be financially fatal starting right now. Trump intends to topple the global economic order… potentially unleashing a devastating force on financial markets and the retirement portfolios that depend on them. Even if you believe what he’s doing will be a long-term good, even he has made it clear it’ll require near-term pain.
Nobody wants to look back years from now and realize they could have saved their investments from a devastating force if only they’d learned more about what happened in the world before 1980.
Try the 2009 book This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. It’s a bit dense and technical, but it also features amusing and relevant observations like:
For economists, Henry VIII of England should be almost as famous for clipping his kingdom’s coins as he was for chopping off the heads of its queens.
Henry VIII “resorted to an epic debasement of the currency,” starting in 1542 and continuing through his successor’s reign starting in 1547. As a result, the British pound lost 83% of its silver content.
Likewise, Dalio might say something similar is happening today, and he has said that our current debt cycle today resembles the period from 1935 to 1945. That cycle really began in 1933, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt ordered Americans to surrender their gold. The following year, FDR reduced the value of the gold-backed U.S. dollar by changing the official price of gold, from $20.67 per ounce to $35 – reducing the value of the currency by roughly 40% in a single stroke.
Today, our currency isn’t debased by reducing its silver content or repricing its gold backing. While gold repricing has been in the news, it’s not about backing the U.S. dollar. Gold hasn’t backed the U.S. dollar since 1971.
Dalio, among many others, has also repeatedly warned investors of the debasement of the dollar by the Federal Reserve printing more money to buy increasing amounts of debt issued by the U.S. government.
I also highly recommend Edward Chancellor’s 2022 masterpiece, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. Chancellor is in a class by himself, having read and digested everything available on the topics he covers. Combine this with his 1999 history of financial speculation, Devil Take the Hindmost, and you’ll better understand several important episodes and trends in the history of both equity and debt markets. These are excellent reads and my two favorite financial-history books of any type.
Meanwhile, Dalio has published his historical research in Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises and Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail. His next book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, came out June 3. You can read them online for free.
It’s mostly serious, often downright dense material… But that’s what it takes to really dig far enough into financial history to make a difference in how you see the world.
If you read and digest all of these books, you’ll be far better able to navigate what’s happening right now than 99% of investors in the market today. Reading them would probably also light a fire under you to learn even more market history.
Besides reading, there are some interesting folks you can follow through social media and other online portals who have an excellent understanding of history. Outside of my colleagues at Stansberry Research and its affiliated companies, three of my favorites are Marko Papic at BCA Research… Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital… and Hugh Hendry, “The ACID Capitalist.”
These writers understand the current macro environment and frequently drop historical names, dates, and topics that send me scanning my bookshelves and scouring the Internet for more information.
Of course, another book you might already be familiar with also contains some valuable insights about history, which you might not have realized were relevant to financial markets…
Throughout the frequently quoted book, Solomon, king of Jerusalem, ponders the cyclical nature of life, most famously in chapter 1, verses 9 to 11:
The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.
Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us.
There is no remembrance of former things; neither shall there be any remembrance of things that are to come with those that shall come after.
The key danger for investors lies in that last verse. Folks don’t remember things that happened before they were born. Even if they do remember reading or hearing about them, those events never feel as real as anything one has lived through.
Wall Street, aided by the Federal Reserve, helps investors forget about the dangers that have caused past crises by constantly pushing new, risky, leveraged financial products.
The history of such schemes is checkered at best, and often disastrous. But at worst, these products rake in cash until they crash, and then their managers turn around and sell some fresh new terrible idea.
Dozens of new highly leveraged exchange-traded funds have debuted over the past few years. Somebody got paid for doing that, even though they’re utterly worthless to investors.
Besides learning history and not forgetting it, it’s probably also helpful to realize that…
That’s not intuitively obvious. After all, what has happened has happened. The past can’t change… can it? Maybe not, but history is not necessarily synonymous with the past…
We were reminded of how history can change recently, after stumbling upon a 2021 article titled, “Why Civilization is Older Than We Thought.”
The article describes an archaeological site in Turkey called “Göbekli Tepe.” It contains the oldest buildings in the world, erected 11,500 years ago. Scientists estimate that extracting and removing their stone pillars from a nearby quarry required a force of at least 500 people. The author says that’d be “quite the organizational feat,” given low population densities at that time.
Even more remarkable, Göbekli Tepe lies within the Middle East’s Fertile Crescent region, but it is older than evidence of agriculture in the region. Sumerian city-states are usually considered the birthplaces of civilization, but Göbekli Tepe is 4,000 years older than them.
So, did humans feed the labor force necessary to build large structures without agriculture? Or did humans have agriculture millennia earlier than previously thought? In other words, maybe what we call the history of civilization starts before we thought it did. That would change history without changing what happened.
Is it simply what happened? Or is it wiser to call history “what humans say happened as they understand it”?
And that is inextricably bound up with what humans say is important about what happened.
Maybe the past is the past and the story we tell about it is history. Even when we do get the facts right, nobody ever knows the whole story.
Too many investors today don’t know the whole story while acting like they know it perfectly. Their strength – getting the story right for decades – is now their greatest weakness.
When circumstances change, investors must transition from believing they know everything to appreciating how much they don’t know about economic and financial history. Many will fail to do so. They’ll buy the dips, expect bonds to protect them during downturns… and ultimately be devastated by the results.
You must do what you can to avoid this catastrophe.
For example, as I’ve shared before, old-money Europeans used to preserve their wealth for centuries through the time-honored formula of one third each in land, gold, and art.
As always, I’m not saying your portfolio should be land, gold, and art, though having some of each wouldn’t hurt you over the long term. A more modern portfolio might contain bitcoin, Treasury bills, gold, land, whatever type of art or other collectible you’re most familiar with… and alternatives that didn’t exist hundreds of years ago, like a managed futures fund.
The real point is that true diversification is more important than ever. It’s about the only way I know of to prepare your wealth for whatever is to come.
Too many U.S.-based investors (and a fair amount of international investors) hold too much in U.S. stocks, especially the riskier growth stocks – many of which are burning cash with little prospect of near-term profitability.
Those investors need to raise the quality of their portfolios and should consider diversifying geographically, by asset class, and by risk profile.
If all you own is stocks, you probably need to add some Treasury bills and gold.
If all you have is gold, you probably need to add some stocks.
If all you own is U.S. stocks, add foreign stocks…
And so on.
There is no off-the-shelf portfolio that’s perfect for everyone. Investing is very personal. Only you know what kind of investor you are: your interests, goals, risk tolerance, and style.
The editors at Stansberry Research can certainly help you build a portfolio with our Portfolio Solutions products or the recommendations in our monthly newsletters. We can help you pick value, technology, mining, energy… and just about any other category of stocks you might find interesting, in addition to various options strategies.
Right now, I suspect most people’s portfolios are wildly unprepared for what could happen next in the economy and markets… They don’t understand history, and so headlines about tariffs and daily market volatility are obscuring the major story that is driving it all, just as they have in the past…
Most people can’t fathom how Trump’s next move could wipe out as much as 40% of their money in the years ahead. And so, they certainly don’t have a blueprint to protect and grow their wealth in this scenario.
But just as we can’t digest your food for you, only you can carry your wealth into the future.
Right now more than ever during your lifetime, you’re less likely to figure out where to go if you don’t know where similar market and economic environments throughout history have gone before.
It’s not too late to dive headlong into history.
But you can’t afford to wait any longer. You must begin today.
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On December 16, legendary market veteran Marc Chaikin is officially sounding the alarm on the U.S. stock market… and will reveal the No. 1 step to take with your money BEFORE January 1 to protect yourself and prepare as hundreds of stocks could soon suffer swift, brutal sell-offs. The last time he issued a warning like this, the average investor went on to lose up to 44% of their portfolio in the months that followed. Before it’s too late, learn more here.
A Dangerous Signal Is Flashing for AI Stocks
As one market veteran is now warning, if you want to protect yourself from the chaos surrounding the AI bubble – and potentially triple your money – you need to make this ONE move before January 1, 2026. Click here to learn more.
With our offices closed today, we’re taking a break from our 52-week highs list and the mailbag. After this weekend’s Masters Series, we’ll pick things back up with our regular fare on Monday. As always, send your comments and questions to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
Good investing,
Dan Ferris
Medford, Oregon
December 12, 2025
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