Is the war in Iran nearing its end?… tracking the volatility in oil… what happens if oil prices remain near $100… how will all this impact the Fed… the three signals to watch now

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As we were going to press yesterday afternoon, President Donald Trump suggested the fast-moving U.S.–Iran conflict could soon wind down – though his comments also made clear the military campaign may not be finished.

Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Trump said the U.S. is closing in on its objectives after more than a week of strikes coordinated with Israel:

We’re achieving major strides toward completing our military objective… 

We could call it a tremendous success right now… or we could go further, and we’re going to go further.

The president struck a careful balance in his remarks, signaling that the war may end soon while also warning that the U.S. could escalate further if necessary.

At one point, Trump described the conflict as “very complete, pretty much.” But moments later, he hinted the mission could continue beyond the initial military strikes. After being asked why Pentagon officials say the conflict is just beginning, Trump replied that “it’s the beginning of building a new country.”

So, while the military phase of the conflict may be nearing its end, the geopolitical consequences could drag out much longer.

The market reaction to Trump’s comments Monday was immediate – and enormous

Wall Street had opened in full risk-off mode as investors grappled with the possibility of a longer war, a deeper oil shock and another inflation scare.

But sentiment flipped after Trump suggested the conflict could be nearing its end, helping spark a sharp reversal in stocks. By the close, the S&P 500 had rebounded from an intraday drop of as much as 1.5% to finish up 0.8%, while the Dow rose 239 points and the Nasdaq gained 1.4%.

The gains are holding as I write on Tuesday in the early afternoon. All three major indices are in the green and were recently trading at their intraday highs.

But the far bigger reaction yesterday and today has come from oil.

As I noted in yesterday’s Digest, at its high on Sunday, crude surged above $115 a barrel.

Yesterday, prices initially eased when G7 energy ministers signaled they were preparing to step in if necessary.

Let’s go to our hypergrowth expert Luke Lango in yesterday’s Innovation InvestorDaily Notes:

The G7 convened an emergency summit to discuss a coordinated SPR release – specifically, a 400-million-barrel release from their collective strategic reserves, a jaw-dropping 33% drawdown of the total 1.2 billion-barrel G7 stockpile (which would be the largest coordinated release ever).

Oil fell from $120 to $100.

The next leg lower in prices came later in the day after Trump’s comments – he even floated the possibility that the U.S. might take control of the Strait of Hormuz to secure shipping lanes.

By late Monday afternoon, crude had plunged dramatically from those weekend highs.

And as I write on Tuesday, West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTIC) has fallen to $84 while Brent Crude is down to $88.

Part of the decline reflects this morning’s meeting between G7 energy ministers. They confirmed they’re ready to release strategic oil reserves if necessary, though they have not yet triggered a final decision to open the tap.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) will hold a meeting later today to discuss the release of oil stockpiles.

In short, some of the panic that gripped energy markets over the weekend is beginning to fade.

Stepping back, the speed of the recent price changes in oil underscores just how sensitive global markets remain to developments in the conflict – and why oil, more than any other asset, has become the real-time barometer of how serious investors believe the crisis could become.

And that’s exactly why what happens next in the oil market matters so much…

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What if this war doesn’t end soon

While markets are currently betting on de-escalation, a lot is riding on how quickly this conflict actually winds down.

If oil doesn’t keep falling – or worse, reverses and heads higher – the economic consequences could spread far beyond energy markets.

To see why, let’s go back to Luke from yesterday’s Daily Notes.

He ran the numbers on what sustained triple-digit oil could mean for inflation. His conclusion isn’t pretty:

By my analysis, if oil prices stay around $100 and flow through into higher commodity prices across the whole supply chain (measured by Bloomberg’s Commodity Index ex Gold staying around $80 to $90, versus sub-$70 just a few weeks ago), then we are looking at potential 4-5% inflation in the coming months.

That’s the nightmare scenario policymakers – and investors – desperately want to avoid.

Remember, the Federal Reserve has spent the past two years trying to push inflation back toward its 2% target. A sustained oil spike would reverse much of the progress we’ve made.

Energy is one of the fastest ways inflation spreads through the economy. Higher oil means higher gasoline prices, higher shipping costs, higher airline fares, and more expensive goods across the entire supply chain.

Plus, if inflation suddenly starts climbing again, potentially moving into the 4%-5% range, the Fed might be forced to raiserates. That’s not a scenario Wall Street is pricing for the next 12-24 months. So, if that becomes a real possibility, we’re likely in for a violent market reaction.

Back to Luke:

It is SO IMPORTANT that oil prices get back below $80. 

Because sustained oil prices >$100 and inflation back at 5% in this environment would lead to multiple “bubbles” popping at once (AI spending would slow, housing market would break, PE market would break, consumer credit market would break, etc.).

That’s how you kill a bull.

So, with crude back to $84, investors are breathing easier. But from here, it’s follow-through that matters.

Target on the Fed

Heading into this latest flare-up in the Middle East, the market had been steadily pricing in the next phase of the Fed cycle – interest rate cuts.

But sustained triple-digit oil prices would dramatically complicate that outlook.

As I write, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that traders are betting on a July rate cut – the probability of at least a quarter-point reduction is roughly 59%.

These probabilities have shifted significantly. One month ago, traders put nearly 85% odds on at least a quarter-point cut in July.

Much of that shift reflects the spike in oil prices and renewed fears that inflation could reaccelerate if the conflict drags on.

Right now, the chief concern is “higher for longer.” In other words, if inflation reaccelerates due to sustained higher oil prices, the Fed may have very little choice but to keep monetary policy tighter for longer.

But as we noted earlier – and what Luke fears – oil at $100+ puts hikes on the table.

The key point here is that markets aren’t pricing that outcome right now.

Despite the geopolitical turmoil of the past week, investors are currently betting that the spike in oil will prove temporary – not the start of a new inflation cycle.

That’s why the sharp drop in crude prices over the past 48 hours has mattered so much.

If oil stabilizes somewhere in the $80–$90 range, the broader inflation outlook probably doesn’t change much. The Fed can stay on its current path, rate cuts later this year remain plausible, and the bull market likely stays intact.

But if crude suddenly reverses and pushes back toward $100, that’s when things could change quickly.

And the past few days have shown just how quickly sentiment in the oil market can swing.

Three signals investors must watch…

First, whether the conflict itself actually begins to cool…

It’s one thing for political leaders to talk about winding the war down. It’s another thing entirely to see the violence truly de-escalate – fewer strikes, calmer rhetoric, and a clear path toward ending the fighting.

If bombs keep falling and tensions remain high, markets will likely continue pricing in the risk of supply disruptions.

Second, oil prices themselves…

If crude keeps trending toward $80, the inflation scare fades quickly. The bull comes roaring back. If not, uncertainty lingers, and today’s market gains reverse.

Third, inflation data in the weeks ahead – but not with tomorrow’s CPI report, which won’t reflect this oil spike.

Bottom line: If higher energy costs begin bleeding into broader commodity prices and transportation costs, we’ll start seeing it show up in inflation reports – and the Fed will notice. For now, though, markets appear to be betting that the worst-case scenario won’t happen.

So, oil is falling… stocks are rebounding… and investors are cautiously returning to risk assets.

The next few weeks will determine whether that bet proves right.

We’ll keep you updated here in the Digest.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg 

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Oil prices staged one of the most dramatic reversals in history Monday, spiking to $119.43 per barrel before crashing 30% to $89 by day’s end. The Dow opened down 900 points and closed up 261. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% at the open and finished up 0.8%.

If you sold in the panic, you locked in devastating losses. If you held steady, you recovered. If you bought the dip, you made a killing.

Monday wasn’t just a wild day—it was a masterclass in how to survive (and profit from) war-driven volatility.

First: The Spike

Sunday, Iran’s Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei—the second son of the assassinated Supreme Leader—as the country’s new leader. Markets interpreted this as Iran digging in for a long war rather than surrendering.

Oil exploded. West Texas Intermediate crude hit $119.43 intraday, the highest price since 2022. Brent crude touched $120.

When markets opened Monday morning, panic selling began immediately. The Dow plunged 900 points. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5%. The Nasdaq fell 1.6%. Energy stocks surged while everything else bled red.

Traders who sold at the open thought they were protecting themselves from worse losses. They were wrong.

Next: The Crash

By Monday afternoon, everything reversed. President Trump told CBS News the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much.” That single comment triggered one of the fastest oil crashes in history.

Oil fell from $120 to $89—a 26% drop—in a matter of hours. Stocks reversed course. By the close, the Dow was up 261 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%. The Nasdaq jumped 1.3%.

Panic sellers from the morning watched in horror as the market erased their losses without them.

Then Reality Hit

Here’s the problem: Monday night, Iran launched fresh attacks on Israel, Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. A 29-year-old woman was killed when a residential building in Bahrain’s capital was struck.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard issued a statement: “Iran will determine when the war ends.”

By Tuesday morning, oil was back around $90 and markets traded flat. Nobody knew whether to believe Trump’s “war complete” comment or Iran’s actions.

The whipsaw continues.

The Traders Who Made Money: What They Did Differently

Professional traders who profited from Monday’schaos didn’t have secret information. They followed a few simple rules that retail investors often ignore.

Rule 1: Never Trade the First 30 Minutes

The traders who lost money Monday sold in the first 30 minutes of trading when the Dow was down 900 points. The traders who made money waited.

Markets are most volatile in the first half-hour after major news. Emotions run high. Spreads widen. Prices whipsaw violently. It’s the worst time to make decisions.

Professional traders wait for the initial panic to clear. They let the amateurs shake out. Then they assess whether the move makes sense or if it’s an overreaction.

Monday morning was a textbook overreaction. Oil at $120 priced in a worst-case scenario: total Hormuz closure lasting months, complete supply disruption, $150-200 oil. That scenario didn’t materialize.

Rule 2: Size Positions for Volatility

During normal markets, a trader might risk 2-3% of their portfolio on a single position. During war-driven chaos, smart traders cut that to 0.5-1%.

Why? Because stop-losses don’t work in gap markets.

In March 2026, weekend escalations have caused Monday morning gaps of $10-18 per barrel. If you set a stop-loss at $100 and oil gaps down to $85 at the open, your stop triggers at $85—not $100. That’s a $15 loss instead of the $5 loss you planned for.

Smaller positions mean you can survive these gaps without catastrophic damage to your account.

Rule 3: Trade the Pattern, Not the Headline

This is the third time in two weeks that markets have followed the exact same pattern:

• Day 1: War escalation → Panic selling → Markets down 2-3%
• Day 2: Trump comments or developments → Rally → Markets recover most losses
• Day 3: Reality sets in → Volatility continues

March 1 (war starts): S&P down 2.5% at open, closed down 0.8%

March 4 (Strait closure): S&P down 2.5% at open, closed down 0.8%

March 9 (new leader): S&P down 1.5% at open, closed UP 0.8%

See the pattern? Markets panic, then they adjust. The panic is predictable. The recovery is predictable.

Smart traders stopped fighting the pattern. They started buying the panic and selling the relief rally.

Rule 4: Know When Headlines Override Fundamentals

Oil’s crash from $120 to $89 had nothing to do with supply and demand fundamentals. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. Middle East production is still disrupted. Nothing changed on the ground.

What changed was perception. Trump’s comment made traders believe the war would end soon. That belief—whether accurate or not—was enough to crater the war-risk premium built into oil prices.

Professional traders know that in war markets, headlines move prices faster than fundamentals. They trade the perception, not the reality, and they’re ready to exit when perception shifts again.

Monday night’s new Iranian attacks shifted perception back toward “war continues.” That’s why oil stabilized around $90 instead of crashing to $70.

The Bottom Line

Monday taught a brutal lesson: In war-driven markets, the first move is almost always wrong. The traders who panicked and sold at the open locked in massive losses. The traders who waited, sized positions carefully, and traded the pattern instead of the headlines made money.

This pattern will repeat. There will be more war escalations, more Trump comments, more whipsaw reversals. The traders who survive—and profit—will be the ones who learn from Monday’s chaos.

The next time you see the Dow down 900 points at the open, remember: the market often reverses by close. Don’t be the panic seller who locks in losses at the worst possible moment.

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Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Volatility is not done. But corrections end. And that could come spooner then you realize…

When this one does, the move back into growth will be fast. The traders who are positioned before that turn will not need to chase it after.

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Don here…

Sunday night futures opened down big and retested the late November lows. Gianni just flagged that move as a false breakdown, and the implications are massive.

The dip got bought. The S&P 500 is up around half a percent on the day, and the NASDAQ bounced hard off support after briefly taking out its early February low.

But the real story is underneath the surface.

Last week, defensive sectors sold off harder than growth. Consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities all dropped more than technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services.

Gianni says that pattern is the textbook signal of a market trying to carve out a bottom. Sellers in growth names are exhausted, and capital is rotating back toward offense.

Technology is now the top performing sector this week. If it holds that position through Friday, Gianni expects a squeeze that will leave most traders scrambling to catch up.

Here is what Gianni is watching in tonight’s video:

• Broadcom beat earnings expectations last week, announced a $10 billion buyback, and confirmed the AI trade is still alive. The stock gapped up and closed near its weekly highs while almost nobody talked about it.
• NVIDIA has traded in a 50 point range for eight months, correcting through time instead of price. It just took out last week’s high and is sitting at the highs of the day.
• The Mag 10 names are showing broad strength. Meta looks excellent, Tesla looks strong, and AMD is seeing a solid bid. The only weak link is Microsoft, which may have just formed a lower high.
• Crude oil saw a 30% plus correction from yesterday’s high to today’s low. Gianni calls the move historic by every measure and expects prices to settle in the 70 to 75 zone.
• Gold looks ready for another leg higher. Gianni is coming around to the idea that gold could rally to 6,000 to 6,200.

The Sunday night flush reminds Gianni of election night 2016. The initial crash gave way to a parabolic move higher that lasted months. He sees the same setup forming right now.

The VIX is still in backwardation, meaning near term volatility is priced higher than volatility a few months out. Gianni says it is too late to panic and that betting on more downside from here is not the wise trade.

Click here to watch Gianni break down the false breakdown, the sector rotation signal, and the levels that matter this week

To your success,

Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

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