MARCH 18, 2026
The Patriot Investor
DEFEND YOUR WEALTH. PROTECT YOUR FUTURE.
GOOD MORNING.
THE LEAD
Oil Climbs Back as the Fed Prepares to Speak
Monday brought some genuine good news on the oil front. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that some Iranian tankers were moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and crude fell sharply in response. Stocks rallied. It felt like a corner had been turned.
Tuesday told a different story. Oil climbed back, with West Texas Intermediate rising nearly 3% to settle at $95.03 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed at $102.92, back solidly above $100. The reason: Iran has continued and expanded its attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure over the past several days, including strikes on the Shah natural gas field in Abu Dhabi and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, a critically important hub for the UAE’s crude exports. The UAE temporarily closed its airspace Monday after an Iranian drone hit a fuel tank. Those attacks have reinforced the view that energy supply disruptions are not going away anytime soon.
Stocks held up better than you might expect. The S&P 500 closed up 0.25%, helped by gains in consumer stocks and a significant boost from the airline sector. Delta raised its first-quarter revenue forecast to the high-single-digit range, up from a prior estimate of 5% to 7%, projecting total revenue of $15 billion to $15.3 billion. American Airlines raised its own forecast to more than 10% year-over-year growth, which the company described as the highest quarterly revenue growth in its history. Delta CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC that even with the war going on, bookings are up 25% year over year. Both carriers absorbed roughly $400 million in higher fuel costs but said strong demand is more than offsetting that hit. It is a useful reminder that even in a difficult macro environment, not every part of the economy is hurting.
I Warned You About Elon Musk…
While everyone was saying Tesla was finished…
That their slowing car sales marked the end of Tesla as we know it…
On June 11, I told everyone a shocking comeback was going to happen…
And that it was going to blindside everyone.
Sure enough, Tesla is up 25% since then…
It has recovered all of its 2025 losses…
And this is just the beginning.
Because while the mainstream media focuses on Tesla’s “struggling” car sales…
On April 22nd, I believe Tesla is about to unleash a new AI breakthrough that will take AI out of computer screens and manifest it here in the real world…
All while creating a new 25,000% growth market in the process.
Look, I was right about Tesla’s comeback.
Now let me show you what’s coming next — along with how to profit.
Click here to see Elon’s $25 trillion secret.
Against that backdrop, the Federal Reserve began its March policy meeting today. The two-day session wraps up Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern with the rate decision and updated economic projections. No rate change is expected. The real question is what the Fed’s updated dot plot reveals, the chart showing where each official thinks interest rates should be at the end of this year and beyond.
Three months ago, the last dot plot pointed to roughly one rate cut in 2026. With oil above $100 and inflation running hot, some analysts now question whether even that single cut survives. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders currently see a 99.2% chance rates stay unchanged Wednesday. The first cut is not priced in until much later in the year.
For retirees and income-focused investors, the pattern of the last two days is worth noting. Even when good news arrives and Monday’s oil dip was real good news markets remain fragile and quick to reverse. The situation in the Middle East is still unsettled, Iran is attacking Gulf energy infrastructure, and the Fed cannot yet ride to the rescue with rate cuts. The wisest position right now is to make sure your near-term income needs are covered by reliable sources, so you are not forced to sell anything in a volatile market. Wednesday’s Fed press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern will be the most important financial event of the week. 
THE NUMBER THAT MATTERS
99.2%
Fed Rate Hold Probability
That is the probability, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool as of today, that the Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting. The current target range is 3.50% to 3.75%. Just a few months ago, most investors expected at least two rate cuts in 2026. Then the war in Iran sent oil prices surging and inflation fears along with them. Now the market has essentially given up on any cuts in the first half of the year. The practical effect on your finances is direct: bond prices, which move opposite to interest rates, remain under pressure. Mortgage rates stay elevated. Money market funds and short-term CDs continue to pay decent yields. The longer rates stay here, the more that interest income matters as a share of your retirement income, which makes Wednesday’s updated Fed projections one of the most consequential pieces of financial news you will see all year.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING THIS WEEK
INFLATION DATA
FEDERAL RESERVE: Decision Day Is Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern
The Fed’s rate-setting committee began meeting today and will announce its decision Wednesday afternoon. The statement comes at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. No rate change is expected. The key deliverable is the updated dot plot and economic projections — the first forecasts released since the Iran war began. Watch for how the Fed characterizes the inflation outlook and whether officials still expect any cuts this year. Any shift in language around inflation risk will move bond markets quickly. Powell’s press conference is typically where the real signals come through, and this one will be watched more closely than any in recent memory.
SMART MONEY SIGNAL
ENERGY: Iran Strikes UAE Gas Field and Oil Hub, Widening the Conflict
Over the weekend and into this week, Iran carried out drone attacks on the Shah natural gas field in Abu Dhabi — suspending operations at a facility that accounts for roughly 20% of the UAE’s total gas supply — and on the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, a key crude export and bunkering hub. The UAE also briefly closed its airspace Monday after a drone struck a fuel tank near Dubai International Airport. According to Bloomberg, the list of struck assets now includes some of the largest refineries, a massive LNG export plant, and multiple ports across the region. The IEA’s emergency reserve release of 400 million barrels has done little to stabilize prices. As long as the conflict continues to expand, oil price volatility will remain a central threat to your purchasing power and to the Fed’s ability to lower rates.
WORTH KNOWING
AIRLINES: Delta and American Show That Demand Can Outrun a Cost Shock
Delta and American Airlines each raised their first-quarter revenue forecasts today at a JPMorgan industry conference, providing an unexpected piece of good news. Delta now projects revenue of $15 billion to $15.3 billion for the quarter, well above its prior guidance. American expects revenue growth of more than 10% year over year, which the company called the highest quarterly growth rate in its history. Both carriers absorbed roughly $400 million in higher fuel costs tied to the Iran war yet still raised their outlooks because passenger demand has been that strong. For retirees, this matters beyond the headline. It is evidence that parts of the economy are absorbing the energy shock with more resilience than feared, which may limit the broader economic damage if the conflict resolves in a reasonable timeframe.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Oil climbed back Tuesday as Iran continued striking Gulf energy infrastructure, erasing Monday’s relief rally and sending crude back above $95. Stocks held modest gains, lifted by strong airline guidance from Delta and American. The Federal Reserve began its meeting today with a decision due Wednesday afternoon — no rate cut is coming, but the updated projections will define the rate outlook for the rest of the year. Keep income needs covered by stable sources, maintain perspective during the daily swings, and pay close attention Wednesday afternoon.
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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
You’re receiving this because you subscribed to The Patriot Investor.
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© 2026 The Patriot Investor
6210 Wilshire Blvd Ste 200 PMB 756
Los Angeles, CA 90048, United StatesTerms of Service
Read online
MARCH 18, 2026
The Patriot Investor
DEFEND YOUR WEALTH. PROTECT YOUR FUTURE.
GOOD MORNING.
THE LEAD
Oil Climbs Back as the Fed Prepares to Speak
Monday brought some genuine good news on the oil front. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that some Iranian tankers were moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and crude fell sharply in response. Stocks rallied. It felt like a corner had been turned.
Tuesday told a different story. Oil climbed back, with West Texas Intermediate rising nearly 3% to settle at $95.03 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed at $102.92, back solidly above $100. The reason: Iran has continued and expanded its attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure over the past several days, including strikes on the Shah natural gas field in Abu Dhabi and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, a critically important hub for the UAE’s crude exports. The UAE temporarily closed its airspace Monday after an Iranian drone hit a fuel tank. Those attacks have reinforced the view that energy supply disruptions are not going away anytime soon.
Stocks held up better than you might expect. The S&P 500 closed up 0.25%, helped by gains in consumer stocks and a significant boost from the airline sector. Delta raised its first-quarter revenue forecast to the high-single-digit range, up from a prior estimate of 5% to 7%, projecting total revenue of $15 billion to $15.3 billion. American Airlines raised its own forecast to more than 10% year-over-year growth, which the company described as the highest quarterly revenue growth in its history. Delta CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC that even with the war going on, bookings are up 25% year over year. Both carriers absorbed roughly $400 million in higher fuel costs but said strong demand is more than offsetting that hit. It is a useful reminder that even in a difficult macro environment, not every part of the economy is hurting.
I Warned You About Elon Musk…
While everyone was saying Tesla was finished…
That their slowing car sales marked the end of Tesla as we know it…
On June 11, I told everyone a shocking comeback was going to happen…
And that it was going to blindside everyone.
Sure enough, Tesla is up 25% since then…
It has recovered all of its 2025 losses…
And this is just the beginning.
Because while the mainstream media focuses on Tesla’s “struggling” car sales…
On April 22nd, I believe Tesla is about to unleash a new AI breakthrough that will take AI out of computer screens and manifest it here in the real world…
All while creating a new 25,000% growth market in the process.
Look, I was right about Tesla’s comeback.
Now let me show you what’s coming next — along with how to profit.
Click here to see Elon’s $25 trillion secret.
Against that backdrop, the Federal Reserve began its March policy meeting today. The two-day session wraps up Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern with the rate decision and updated economic projections. No rate change is expected. The real question is what the Fed’s updated dot plot reveals, the chart showing where each official thinks interest rates should be at the end of this year and beyond.
Three months ago, the last dot plot pointed to roughly one rate cut in 2026. With oil above $100 and inflation running hot, some analysts now question whether even that single cut survives. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders currently see a 99.2% chance rates stay unchanged Wednesday. The first cut is not priced in until much later in the year.
For retirees and income-focused investors, the pattern of the last two days is worth noting. Even when good news arrives and Monday’s oil dip was real good news markets remain fragile and quick to reverse. The situation in the Middle East is still unsettled, Iran is attacking Gulf energy infrastructure, and the Fed cannot yet ride to the rescue with rate cuts. The wisest position right now is to make sure your near-term income needs are covered by reliable sources, so you are not forced to sell anything in a volatile market. Wednesday’s Fed press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern will be the most important financial event of the week.
THE NUMBER THAT MATTERS
99.2%
Fed Rate Hold Probability
That is the probability, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool as of today, that the Federal Reserve holds interest rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting. The current target range is 3.50% to 3.75%. Just a few months ago, most investors expected at least two rate cuts in 2026. Then the war in Iran sent oil prices surging and inflation fears along with them. Now the market has essentially given up on any cuts in the first half of the year. The practical effect on your finances is direct: bond prices, which move opposite to interest rates, remain under pressure. Mortgage rates stay elevated. Money market funds and short-term CDs continue to pay decent yields. The longer rates stay here, the more that interest income matters as a share of your retirement income, which makes Wednesday’s updated Fed projections one of the most consequential pieces of financial news you will see all year.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING THIS WEEK
INFLATION DATA
FEDERAL RESERVE: Decision Day Is Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern
The Fed’s rate-setting committee began meeting today and will announce its decision Wednesday afternoon. The statement comes at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. No rate change is expected. The key deliverable is the updated dot plot and economic projections — the first forecasts released since the Iran war began. Watch for how the Fed characterizes the inflation outlook and whether officials still expect any cuts this year. Any shift in language around inflation risk will move bond markets quickly. Powell’s press conference is typically where the real signals come through, and this one will be watched more closely than any in recent memory.
SMART MONEY SIGNAL
ENERGY: Iran Strikes UAE Gas Field and Oil Hub, Widening the Conflict
Over the weekend and into this week, Iran carried out drone attacks on the Shah natural gas field in Abu Dhabi — suspending operations at a facility that accounts for roughly 20% of the UAE’s total gas supply — and on the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, a key crude export and bunkering hub. The UAE also briefly closed its airspace Monday after a drone struck a fuel tank near Dubai International Airport. According to Bloomberg, the list of struck assets now includes some of the largest refineries, a massive LNG export plant, and multiple ports across the region. The IEA’s emergency reserve release of 400 million barrels has done little to stabilize prices. As long as the conflict continues to expand, oil price volatility will remain a central threat to your purchasing power and to the Fed’s ability to lower rates.
WORTH KNOWING
AIRLINES: Delta and American Show That Demand Can Outrun a Cost Shock
Delta and American Airlines each raised their first-quarter revenue forecasts today at a JPMorgan industry conference, providing an unexpected piece of good news. Delta now projects revenue of $15 billion to $15.3 billion for the quarter, well above its prior guidance. American expects revenue growth of more than 10% year over year, which the company called the highest quarterly growth rate in its history. Both carriers absorbed roughly $400 million in higher fuel costs tied to the Iran war yet still raised their outlooks because passenger demand has been that strong. For retirees, this matters beyond the headline. It is evidence that parts of the economy are absorbing the energy shock with more resilience than feared, which may limit the broader economic damage if the conflict resolves in a reasonable timeframe.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Oil climbed back Tuesday as Iran continued striking Gulf energy infrastructure, erasing Monday’s relief rally and sending crude back above $95. Stocks held modest gains, lifted by strong airline guidance from Delta and American. The Federal Reserve began its meeting today with a decision due Wednesday afternoon — no rate cut is coming, but the updated projections will define the rate outlook for the rest of the year. Keep income needs covered by stable sources, maintain perspective during the daily swings, and pay close attention Wednesday afternoon.
Know someone who should be reading this?
Forward this email. It takes ten seconds and might save them real money.
SHARE THE PATRIOT INVESTOR
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
You’re receiving this because you subscribed to The Patriot Investor.
Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here
© 2026 The Patriot Investor
6210 Wilshire Blvd Ste 200 PMB 756
Los Angeles, CA 90048, United StatesTerms of Service
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RJ Hamster 