Author Archives: RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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Stock Split Marks Carvana’s Shift to Aggressive Growth

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Carvana’s 5-for-1 Split: Green Light for a New Growth Era

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson on March 16, 2026

Key Points

Carvana’s decision follows record-breaking sales volume and a significant return to profitability last year.
The stock split aims to make share ownership more psychologically accessible for retail investors and Carvana’s team members.
Wall Street analysts have a positive outlook, with consensus price targets suggesting considerable potential upside from current trading levels.
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Carvana’s (NYSE: CVNA) board of directors recently approved its first-ever 5-for-1 forward stock split, a milestone that signals a significant new chapter for the online auto retailer. The market responded enthusiastically, with shares climbing in the session following the announcement. This positive reception underscores a broader sentiment: Carvana’s strategic move is much more than an accounting adjustment.

For a company that has navigated a remarkable turnaround, the stock split serves as a confident signal. It represents a strategic pivot from a period of intense recovery to a new phase focused on aggressive, forward-looking growth. This decision, made from a position of renewed strength, offers a compelling look into Carvana’s future and what it could mean for investors.

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From Brink to Breakout Performance

To understand the significance of the stock split, it is crucial to examine the foundation on which it was built. Not long ago, Carvana faced significant operational and financial headwinds, including a heavy debt load and questions about its path to profitability, leading to serious concerns about its future. Carvana, however, has since engineered one of the more dramatic turnarounds in the recent market. Through sharp operational execution and a successful debt restructuring, it has emerged stronger than ever.

The proof is in Carvana’s 2025 financial results. Carvana achieved stunning growth and record-breaking profitability, silencing many of its critics. The key highlights provide a clear picture of this resurgence:

Record Sales Volume: Carvana sold 596,641 retail units, a 43% increase year-over-year.
Surging Revenue: Full-year revenue soared to $20.3 billion, a 49% jump from the previous year.
A Return to Profitability: Carvana reported a full-year net income of $1.9 billion, a stark reversal from previous losses.

The fourth-quarter 2025 performance was particularly impressive, with earnings per share of $4.22. This figure handily beat analyst consensus estimates of just $1.10, showcasing an operational engine firing on all cylinders. This financial health provides the essential context for the stock split, framing it as a well-earned victory lap for a company that has fought hard for the winner’s circle.

Why a Stock Split, and Why Now?

Subject to shareholder approval at the Annual Shareholder Meeting on May 5, 2026, the stock split will take effect on May 6, 2026. After this date, investors will receive four additional shares for every share they currently own. While the number of shares increases fivefold, each share’s price will be reduced to one-fifth its previous value. For example, a stock trading at $300 per share would trade at $60 per share after the split. The total value of an investor’s holding remains unchanged by the split itself.

The primary strategy behind this type of strategic share price move is to enhance accessibility. A lower per-share price can have a powerful psychological impact on investors. For many retail investors, a $60 stock feels far more approachable and affordable than a $300 stock, even though Carvana’s underlying value is the same. This can significantly broaden the investor base.

Carvana’s leadership endorsed this strategy, with Chief Financial Officer Mark Jenkins confirming that the stock split, the first in Carvana’s history, was intended to keep the stock “accessible to all of our team members.” This effort to simplify employee ownership strengthens a culture of confidence and aligns the workforce with shareholder interests. The move, executed from a position of financial strength, is a deliberate and confident signal to the market, and its timing is particularly significant.

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Primed for a New Wave of Interest

Beyond making the stock more accessible, the split could catalyze Carvana’s next phase of growth. Carvana has made it clear that its focus is on scaling its operations and capturing a larger share of the massive used car market. This ambition is underscored by CEO Ernie Garcia’s long-term goal of selling 3 million vehicles annually.

Carvana is already making tangible progress toward this vision. A key example is the recent expansion of its same-day delivery service into the vast and competitive Los Angeles market. This move not only enhances its customer value proposition but also demonstrates its improving logistics network and ability to execute in critical regions. A broader investor base and the increased trading liquidity that often follows a stock split can provide a stable tailwind for a company pursuing an aggressive growth strategy.

Furthermore, Carvana’s stock is known for its high beta of 3.60. Beta measures a stock’s price volatility relative to the overall market. A beta above 1.0, like Carvana’s, indicates it’s more volatile than the market average, a trait that often attracts momentum traders seeking significant price movements. By lowering the price of entry, the split could re-engage this class of investors, potentially driving a new wave of trading activity and interest in the stock.

The Road Ahead: A Green Light from Analysts

Carvana’s 5-for-1 stock split serves as a powerful symbol of a completed turnaround, a strategic tool to broaden its investor base, and a catalyst designed to fuel its next chapter of ambitious growth. The move reflects a leadership team that is confident in its operational execution and financial stability, and it shifts its narrative from recovery to market expansion.

This bullish sentiment is echoed on Wall Street. Among 25 financial analysts covering Carvana, the consensus rating is a Moderate Buy. More tellingly, the average analyst price target sits at $440.59. This target suggests potential upside of over 46% from the stock’s current trading level, indicating that many industry experts believe there is room for Carvana’s valuation to grow further.

For investors, Carvana’s stock split may be viewed as a clear line in the sand. It marks the end of its recovery phase and signals the confident beginning of its renewed push for market dominance.

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While the world watches Iran … this is about to happen

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The Smart Investor’s Guide to Overheated Volatility

Posted On Mar 04, 2026 by Ian Cooper

Keep an eye on the stretched CBOE Volatility Index (CBOE: VIX). At 26.33, the VIX is now challenging October 2025 trade war highs. However, this time, it’s uncertainty about the joint United States and Israel military campaign against Iran that is driving volatility higher.

Eventually, the Situation Will Cool Off
Take Advantage of Volatility With These ETFs
Make Volatility Your Friend

For one, the conflict appears to be widening. Drones hit the U.S. embassy in Riyadh. The State Department ordered evacuations at facilities in Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan. Hezbollah attacked Tel Aviv. And there are concerns about how long Gulf states can keep themselves safe from Iranian attacks. Plus, President Trump just said the conflict could continue for another four weeks, which raises uncertainty, which markets hate.

In addition, “Market anxiety ratcheted higher overnight amid concerns that a decapitated and leaderless Iranian government and military will execute a prolonged retaliatory response aimed at sowing chaos throughout the region by targeting key economic and energy infrastructure for weeks to come,” said Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge, as quoted by CNBC.

Until there’s clarity, markets could slip even more. Except for oil, which could easily gush higher.

Eventually, the Situation Will Cool Off

This too will pass. It’s easy for investors to say, but harder to internalize in volatile markets. However, right now, even though tensions are sky-high, the VIX is telling us that fear is too hot. And when the temperature goes down in the Middle East, we’ll be offered an opportunity on the short side of volatility.

In fact, if you look at the VIX dating back to early 2022, you can see that with every spike, RSI, MACD and Williams’ %R tell us when the VIX is likely to pivot lower. We saw that happen in April 2025, December 2024, August 2024, April 2024, October 2023, March 2023, October 2022, September 2022, and also in May 2022. Each time the VIX peaked with those three indicators, buying calls on the DIAs, QQQs and the SPY typically paid off well.

One of the best ways to trade an overheated fear gauge is by jumping into inverse VIX ETFs, which move higher when the VIX moves lower.

Take Advantage of Volatility With These ETFs

Here are two of the top ETFs to consider when the VIX moves lower:

The ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (BATS: SVXY) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one-half the inverse (-0.5x) of the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, as noted by ProShares.com.

Specifically, the fund tends to profit from decreases in the expected volatility of the S&P 500, as measured by the prices of VIX futures contracts. The S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index has historically been less volatile than the VIX but significantly more volatile than the S&P 500. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.95%.

Another option is the -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (BATS: SVIX), which is an inverse VIX-linked ETF that seeks to provide daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond generally to the Short VIX Futures Index, as noted by VolatilityShares.com.

Simply put, as the VIX drops, the SVIX ETF rises. The inverse is also true. That’s why the SVIX is down 13.4% in the 30 days ending March 3.

Make Volatility Your Friend

Right now, the headlines are full of doom and gloom. Geopolitical tensions are rising with uncertainty, oil is reacting by gushing higher on fear of what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz, and the VIX is elevated. That combination naturally makes investors uneasy.

But seasoned investors know something important: volatility is emotional. It spikes when uncertainty rises — and it falls when clarity returns. It doesn’t stay elevated forever.

When volatility stops rising on bad news, that’s often the first sign that panic is burning out.

If the VIX begins to roll over, history suggests markets may stabilize and potentially rebound.

That’s when some of the greatest opportunities tend to appear — not when fear is building, but when it starts to fade. For now, patience matters. Let the fear spike. Let the technical signals develop. And be ready to act when conditions begin to normalize.

As Warren Buffett has said, “A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy.” Or, as we learned from Baron Rothschild, “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” His family is now worth $400 billion because of that, by the way.

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The Silver Lining to Nebius Debt Cloud

Written by Thomas Hughes

Nebius Group’s (NASDAQ: NBIS)debt load is swelling and clouding the outlook for share prices. However, as significant as debt increases are, there is a silver lining to this cloud: AI.

AI demand is swelling, underpinning a need for expansion that requires capital, which is why debt is swelling. In the end, as evidenced by recent results and developments, all Nebius needs to do is continue executing its strategy and expanding its network to realize billions in annual revenue and generate sufficient cash flow to repay its debt and unlock value for shareholders.

The new debt is due in two tranches, the first not payable until 2031, well after the company is expected to turn profitable.

Also, the overall debt load still looks manageable. The balance sheet shows that it rose at fiscal 2025 year-end but remains manageable at $4.1 billion and below 1X equity. The company plans to raise additional capital through a convertible debt offering this year, but even that would leave it in a solid position, given its growth and outlook. The company has four operational data centers and will more than double its capacity within the next 12 to 24 months, excluding expansion plans for Asia and any new developments.

New Deals Drive Robust Outlook for Nebius Revenue Growth

Nebius’ revenue growth outlook was robust before Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) announced plans to invest up to $27 billion over five years in advanced AI capacity. The deal is set to start in 2027 and will include five or more datacenter regions utilizing the latest NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA)GPUs, the Vera Rubin lineup. Nebius needs to supply $12 billion in capacity, well within its purview, but needs to complete its buildout, including the acquisition of GPUs. At face value, the deal is worth up to $5.4 billion annually, or an approximate 50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue over the planned period.

And Nebius is not alone in its mission to build the world’s most advanced data centers. It has partnered with NVIDIA to deploy factory-supported systems across its footprint in a multi-generational format. The takeaway for investors is that Nebius has a preferred status with the source of AI GPUs, and inroads to existing and upcoming supply, including Vera Rubin and subsequent generations. Additionally, a deal with CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) to bring its Falcon platform to the AI cloud sets the company apart. Falcon enables enterprise-quality security for AI workloads in cross-cloud and multi-cloud environments.

Analysts Lift Targets in Wake of Nebius Deal Activity

Analyst trends are robust and underpin a healthy outlook for Nebius stock price. MarketBeat tracked several price target increases, upgrades, and coverage initiations in March, extending bullish trends and pointing to a 35% upsidefrom critical resistance targets. Takeaways include an increase in coverage, up 25% sequentially from February and 100% on a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis, and a 35% upside at the consensus.

The 35% upside target is also likely to be low, as it is up by more than 200% TTM, with recent targets pointing to the $200 level. A move to $200 is worth approximately 67% to investors and may be only the beginning of this rally. Long-term forecasts suggest this stock trades at 10X to 15X 2035 earnings targets, setting the stage for a 100% to 200% increase in stock price as the company grows into its potential.

Institutions and Short-Interest Point to Squeeze in NBIS Stock

Short interest and institutional trends suggest near-term volatility and a potential short squeeze. Institutions, which collectively own about 22%, are buying aggressively at a pace of more than $2 for each $1 sold and ramping activity sequentially as the news story strengthens. At the same time, short interest is climbing, hitting a record high in late February, and is sufficient to impact price action and fuel a squeeze at 17%. The only question is the timing of the action, and it looks like a squeeze (or at least a short-covering rally) may begin soon.

Technically, this market is on track to advance. It shows resistance at the $125 level, but this is unlikely to last long, given the improving outlook. Assuming a move to new highs, the next resistance target is near $140, with clear chart space after that. The risk is that the NBIS market will wait until later in the year before hitting a new high. In this scenario, there is a risk that the price will retreat to $100 or lower before there is enough traction to set a fresh high. The next visible catalyst is the upcoming Q1 earnings report in late May. READ THIS STORY ONLINE

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Why Credo and Astera Soared After Oracle and Broadcom’s Earnings

Written by Leo Miller

Credo Technology (NASDAQ: CRDO)and Astera Labs (NASDAQ: ALAB) are some of the fastest-growing beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (AI) data center buildout.

As key suppliers in the data center ecosystem, the results and commentary coming from players upstream of Astera and Credo are vital to evaluating their future. Hyperscaler Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) and custom AI semiconductor stock Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO)are prime examples.

These two names recently reported earnings. Their better-than-expected results and some interesting commentary helped CRDO and ALAB soar. Let’s break down why, as knowing where CRDO and ALAB fit in the data center ecosystem is key to understanding their paths going forward.

How Credo and Astera Power AI Data Center Connectivity

Credo and Astera sit squarely in the AI infrastructure networking bucket. Their products help connect processing chips, like NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA)graphics processing units (GPUs). These connections allow processing chips to communicate with each other and execute tasks.

Credo’s primary product is its HiWire active electrical cable (AEC). These copper-based solutions can be much longer than traditional passive copper cables while preserving signal integrity. They also use less power and are cheaper than optical cables.

Astera’s smart retimers offer similar benefits, but through chips rather than cables. Astera offers AECs too, but smart retimers are by far its largest revenue source.

The big picture is that more data centers mean more networking equipment, expanding the market that Credo and Astera can target.

This is why these stocks rose 3.2% and 7.1%, respectively, after Oracle’s latest earnings report.

Oracle’s Data Center Capacity Ramp Signals Faster Infrastructure Demand

Oracle significantly beat growth estimates in its latest report. Strong performance in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure drove this, showing that infrastructure demand is outpacing expectations.

Oracle delivered 400 megawatts of data center capacity in the quarter and indicated that the pace of this expansion will accelerate.

It plans to bring 10 gigawatts (10,000 megawatts) of capacity online over the next three years.

That would imply 3.3 gigawatts per year or double the 1.6 gigawatt annual run rate (400 megawatts per quarter) the firm just delivered. Faster data center buildouts are a big positive for Credo and Astera, which are part of the connective tissue of these facilities.

This isn’t to say whether Oracle is a Credo or Astera customer, but rather to show that the accelerating pace of data center deployment is a rising tide that will lift both ships.

AVGO Supports CRDO and ALAB’s Runway with Copper Forecast

While more data centers are a positive for Credo and Astera, the conversation is a bit more complicated than just that. Credo and Astera’s primary revenue-generating products are copper-based. The alternative to copper networking is optical solutions, which transmit data using light rather than electricity. Optical solutions can handle more data, but they also use more power and are more expensive. For these reasons, data center operators want to keep using copper-based solutions for as long as possible.

This is part of the reason why Credo and Astera also got big boosts after Broadcom’s earnings release. The two stocks rose 11.9% and 5.5%, respectively.

The gains in Credo and Astera came as Broadcom CEO Hock Tan provided some perspective on the copper versus optical battle. Tan says that in “scale-out” architectures, where data center operators place servers next to each other and connect them, they use optical networking. However, the story is different when it comes to “scale-up” architectures, where companies pack more processing chips into each server. Scale up is the domain that Credo and Astera primarily play in, though they have scale out solutions as well.

In 2028, Tan believes Broadcom’s scale-up customers will likely still be using copper. He noted that copper technology is good enough that customers don’t need to run toward highly advanced optical solutions, like co-packaged optics (CPO), at this time.

CPO describes when processing chips have optical networking components built directly into them. CPO adoption is a long-term threat to CRDO and ALAB. So, the idea that CPO adoption may be slower than some expected, according to Tan, is a positive for CRDO and ALAB. This is particularly true, as Broadcom is a leader in CPO. Because of this, Tan doesn’t necessarily have a vested interest in CPO delay; he’s simply being realistic about the timeline. This adds legitimacy to his statement.

More copper usage improves CRDO and ALAB’s ability to grow in the near term. In the meantime, they can work on expanding their optical solution set to be ready when a larger shift away from copper takes place.

CRDO & ALAB: Niche Players Benefiting From the Data Center Boom

Overall, these pieces of information from Oracle and Broadcom lend support to the outlooks of CRDO and ALAB. Going forward, investors should be aware of how the changing dynamics of copper and optical networking affect these companies.

While these are positive developments, there are also key risks to consider with these two stocks. One example is customer concentration. In 2025, five customers accounted for 84% of ALAB’s revenue. CRDO is significantly more concentrated, with two customers accounting for 87% of revenue last quarter. Should spending at just one or two customers trail off, CRDO and ALAB could be significantly affected. READ THIS STORY ONLINE

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NVIDIA Rally? The Market Hasn’t Seen Anything Yet

Written by Thomas Hughes

If you think that NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) rally-to-date has been impressive, just wait for what comes next. News revealed at the GTC developer conference shows the AI boom is still growing, much larger and faster than expected, indicating potential for another series of triple-digit gains. It may take a minute to comprehend, but this is a series—not just one—of triple-digit gains that could be possible for this semiconductor stock.

CEO Jenson Huang said there is a trillion-dollar revenue opportunity to be realized through 2027, far larger than expected. So large, in fact, that it more than doubles the existing two-year revenue outlook, suggesting NVIDIA’s stock price has yet to be unleashed.

NVIDIA’s Stock Is Deeply Undervalued—50% Upside Is the Minimum Target

From a valuation perspective, there is a significant opportunity. NVIDIA trades at a 22X forward earnings multiple as of mid-March 2026, which provides no premium relative to the S&P 500.

NVIDIA with no premium is ludicrous, as it is the source of all things AI. Not only is its revenue growing at a wicked hot pace, but the forecasts are also too low, and many comparisons suggest large price increases to come.

Not only do blue-chip tech stocks, including NVIDIA, often trade at 30-35X forward earnings, suggesting approximately 50% upside, but the growth forecast also provides a deeper opportunity.

NVIDIA trades at only 14X its 2030 forecast and 9X its 2035 forecast, setting the stage for a 150% upside over the long-term.

Assuming the long-term forecast is too low, upside potential could be greater. If the long-term forecast is as off as the fiscal year 2027 (FY2027) and FY2028 seem to be, upside potential may run to the 300% range or higher.

Analysts Are Impressed: Institutions Accumulate NVIDIA

The analyst response to the news cannot be ignored. In the words of Wedbush Dan Ives, the trillion-dollar backlog is a stunner, and driving an outlook reset. MarketBeat tracked no analyst revisions within the first 12 hours of the release, but no sentiment trend change is expected, only strengthening of the current trend.

Other takeaways from the commentaries are that the news is a confidence booster, allaying fears about competition, and that the shift toward full-service AIis progressing smoothly.

As it stands, 53 analysts rate the stock as a consensus Buy with a 96% Buy-side bias. No analyst rates the stock as a Sell, two peg it at Hold, and the consensus price target, up more than 60% on a trailing 12-month basis, forecasts a 50% upside from March support levels. The high end, coincidentally, forecasts more than 100% upside for this market and is likely to increase as the year progresses.

Institutions have been taking advantage of NVIDIA’s price consolidation.

MarketBeat data shows them providing a solid support base with more than 60% ownership and accumulating on balance for five sequential quarters. Buying activity ramped up sequentially in 2025 and into early 2026, with a $3-to-$1 buyers-to-sellers pace. This data reflects not only a strong support but a tailwind, as they are aggressively accumulating amid broader market uncertainty.

NVIDIA Market Sets Up for Big Move: Technical Targets Converge

The question now is what might catalyze the next upward movement? The Q1 2027 results aren’t due until late May, leaving two months for the market to sit and stew. In this environment, anticipation and fear of missing out may drive the stock price higher, with $196 as the critical resistance level. In this scenario, NVIDIA’s price may be capped at $196 until it isn’t, and then it may quickly rise. $200 and $210 are also significant resistance targets, likely to induce volatility but unlikely to halt a price advance once it is underway.

Chart action is another factor converging on a 50% to 100% stock price movement in the near to mid-term. The past few quarters’ consolidation created a Bullish Flag on a $90 flag pole, which, coincidentally, is planted at the $90 level, suggesting a $90 to 100% upside from the $180 Flag tip. In this scenario, NVIDIA’s stock price may rise by $90, or 50%, from the $180 level as a base-case estimate, and as much as 100% at the high-end, which, coincidentally, is $360 and on track to the Street-high analyst target of $400. READ THIS STORY ONLINE

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