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Wall Street Loves to Make Predictions — but This Trader Does Something Else


Wall Street Loves to Make Predictions — but This Trader Does Something Else
Happy Memorial Day!
Our InvestorPlace offices are closed today as we honor the U.S. military personnel who died while serving in the Armed Forces. If you need assistance from our Customer Service team, they’ll be happy to help when we reopen tomorrow.
While Wall Street loves bold forecasts, Jonathan Rose prefers following the footprints.
In today’s guest essay, the veteran trader explains why he focuses less on predicting the future and more on tracking where institutional money and volatility are quietly converging in real time.
That approach helped Jonathan and his members uncover some enormous winners over the past year, including triple-digit gains in energy, lithium, rare earths, and pharma stocks before the broader market fully caught on.
Below, he explains the philosophy behind those trades… why one under-the-radar energy infrastructure company now fits the same setup… and how he’s teaming up with Wall Street veteran Marc Chaikin to unveil what they call the “Convergence Trigger.”
They’ll break it all down during a free event on May 28 at 8 p.m. Eastern, including five stocks currently flashing the signal. You can reserve your spot right here.
If you’ve been looking for a more tactical way to navigate today’s volatile market, Jonathan’s approach needs to be on your radar.
I’ll let him take it from here.
Have a good evening,
Jeff Remsburg
A few weeks ago, I was at a conference in Washington, D.C.
Some of the best market analysts in this business were in attendance — people I deeply respect, including a few names you’d recognize from InvestorPlace and Chaikin Analytics. Really, really smart people.
And I sat there listening to the presentations, noticing the same thing over and over.
Everyone was talking about the future.
Where is lithium going in five years? Are we in an AI bubble? What happens to oil if the Iran situation gets worse? Where does the Fed go in 2027?
Brilliant takes. Genuinely useful frameworks. I learned things.
But I kept thinking: This just isn’t how I trade.
The analysts in that room have built incredible track records doing things their way. I’m not saying they’re wrong.
Louis Navellier’s Stock Grader quant system has been beating the market for nearly 50 years. Eric Fry was shorting dot-com stocks while Wall Street was still buying — and made his subscribers a fortune when the Nasdaq fell 80%. And Marc Chaikin has spent 60 years building tools that institutional investors pay a fortune for.
These people are serious… and successful.
But I realized that I come from a completely different tradition — and it produces a completely different kind of edge.
I spent 20 years in rooms where nobody cared about five years from now. The CME floor. Bond futures desks. The CBOE. You cared about right now. What’s moving? Where’s the volatility? What’s the cheapest way to ride what’s already happening – right now?
I still think that way. Sitting in that conference room, I realized the gap between those two approaches is actually where my edge lives.
Here’s what I’m going to walk you through today.
First, the core principle I trade by — one sentence that sounds simple but took me 20 years on the floor to fully understand.
Second, what that principle looks like when it’s working — with some real numbers from the past year to back it up.
And third, a free stock pick that’s a direct expression of this exact approach right now.
It fits the current market setup better than almost anything else I’m watching.
Let’s go.
Recommended Link
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This company is the lifeblood of AI data centers, yet almost no one has caught up with the story. Their hardware is so essential that the data center industry uses enough of it to stretch around the world 8 times – in a single building! If you missed the boat on Nvidia, check out this under-the-radar play to target tremendous profit potential as AI data centers spring up in every corner of the world. Get my full take on this exciting play right here…
The Principle I Trade By
Here’s my whole trading philosophy in one sentence:
Nothing is ever cheap. Nothing is ever expensive. Everything is relative.
When people ask me about it, I use the example of buying a house. When you’re shopping for a home, you don’t walk in off the street and just decide what it’s worth. You look at what everything else in the neighborhood sold for. You find the one whose asking price hasn’t moved with the group. You buy that one.
Trading is identical.
I don’t say “lithium is going to be higher in five years because EV demand is structural.” I wait for the price of lithium to actually strengthen. When it does, I look at the lithium stocks and find the one that hasn’t moved with the rest yet. I buy that one.
I don’t predict. I react. And then I find the most efficient way to express that opinion.
This keeps me out of the trust-me trades. The “this has to work eventually” trades. The trades where you’re crossing your fingers instead of following evidence.
Here’s what it looks like when it’s working.
Earlier this year, the Iran-U.S. conflict escalated, and crude oil volatility spiked. Many investors were glued to the news, trying to figure out what would happen next.
My members and I weren’t asking that question. We were asking where the smart money was already moving.
The answer showed up clearly. Institutional positioning was concentrating in energy names before the broader market caught on.
We entered a bullish trade on Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) on February 19and exited about 42 days later with a 780% gain.
Shortly after, the same approach pointed us to another energy name — IREN Ltd. (IREN) — where we locked in a 485% gain in about two months.
We didn’t predict the war or what it would do to energy prices. We followed the footprints.
That’s rinse and repeat for us. Quarter after quarter, same process, different names.
Over the past year:
- A 1,076% gain on a pharma name: Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY).
- A 959% gain on a lithium trade: Albemarle Corp. (ALB).
- 700%-plus on a rare earths name: MP Materials Corp. (MP).
- Two separate doubles on a copper miner, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX), in the same month.
I’m not sharing those to brag. Those numbers come directly from the process. And the process works precisely because it’s not built on prediction — it’s built on waiting for the evidence to show up, then moving.
The Free Stock — and Why It Fits Right Now
One name I want you to look at right now is Ameresco Inc. (AMRC).
This isn’t a glamorous name. It won’t get your pulse racing the way AI plays do. But that’s often exactly where the best setups hide — the unglamorous names where the fundamentals are quietly improving and the smart money is moving in before the narrative catches up.
Ameresco does energy efficiency projects, renewable infrastructure, microgrids, and grid modernization. Its customers are governments, utilities, hospitals, and schools — the kind of clients who sign long-term contracts and don’t disappear when the market gets choppy.
Here’s why it fits my framework right now.
The AI boom, electrification, and aging infrastructure are creating enormous pressure on existing power systems. That pressure has to go somewhere. And it’s increasingly going to companies positioned to modernize and reinforce the grid — quietly, before the headline story fully takes hold.
Ameresco recently reported strong backlog growth tied to renewable infrastructure and distributed power systems. At the same time, institutional positioning around energy modernization names has been building — the same kind of footprint we track before a move develops.
This is not a “five years from now” thesis.
This is a right-now setup. The money is already moving. I’m just pointing to the trail.
Which brings me to May 28.
Earlier, I mentioned Marc Chaikin. Marc has spent sixty years in markets. He is the creator of the Money Flow indicator that’s now built into every Bloomberg terminal on the planet, and a former research provider to Paul Tudor Jones, George Soros, and Steve Cohen.
I’ve spent the last several months working with Marc, and we discovered something when we started comparing notes: We’ve both spent our entire careers tracking the same thing — the smart money — just from different angles.
My work identifies where big, high-conviction positioning is showing up. Marc’s Money Flow confirms where institutional capital is actually flowing in the underlying stocks. One signal measures conviction. The other confirms the direction. Together, they form something neither of us had alone.
We combined them and backtested the result against nearly 200 of my real trade recommendations. Confirmed setups produced 45% higher average gains. Win rate jumped 17 percentage points. And the filter would have kept us out of two-thirds of losing trades.
We’re calling it the Convergence Trigger. We’re going public with it for the first time on May 28 at 8 p.m. Eastern.
AMRC is one of five stocks where that trigger is active right now. The other four are in the report you’ll get when you sign up for our free event’s VIP list.
Click here to reserve your spot. And again, get all five stocks before the event if you sign up for the VIP list.
The smart money is already moving. The question is whether you’re in front of it.
The creative trader always wins,
Jonathan Rose
Founder, Masters in Trading
P.S. Jonathan makes a point in today’s piece that’s worth thinking about: By the time most investors feel comfortable about a trade, a lot of the biggest upside may already be gone. That’s why he focuses on following institutional money flows and volatility setups instead of trying to predict headlines months in advance. He and Wall Street veteran Marc Chaikin are discussing that approach in much greater detail during their free Convergence Summit event on May 28 at 8 p.m. Eastern. You can reserve your seat right here.

Trump links normalizing ties with Israel to Iran peace deal

Trump links normalizing ties with Israel to Iran peace dealPresident Trump said Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations must normalize ties with Israel as part of efforts to reach a deal with Iran.
News for you, PeterA Ukrainian crew said its Italian tank gun hit a house that was 120 football fields awayThe gunner of the Italian B1 Centauro said the tank gun, fired like artillery, had struck the building nearly seven miles …Business Insider Amazon Memorial Day sale — the best deals to shop today from brands like Apple, Ninja, Adidas a…We’ve spotted some standout price drops on spring style, self-care essentials, summer stock-ups and more.Yahoo Life Berkshire Hathaway’s latest stock purge sends a clear messageFor decades, Berkshire Hathaway’s quarterly stock filings have been treated like a roadmap into Warren Buffett …TheStreet Swimmer Gkolomeev ‘beats’ record at drug-fueled Enhanced GamesGreek swimmer Kristian Gkolomeev was the only athlete to “beat” a world record Sunday at the Enhanced Games, win…AFP Vietnam vets say opposing Trump’s arch is about being “loyal to the country”“I think it’s just disrespectful to those that I served with who didn’t come back,” a veteran suing to stop cons…CBS News Illinois school shooting plot foiled by relative who tackled the armed child, officials sayAn Illinois school shooting plot was foiled Friday after a relative spotted a boy with a firearm and called 911, according…NBC News “I don’t do the pill. I take a shot once a week” – Charles Barkley admits he joined Holl…Charles Barkley opens up about taking weekly shots of a drug that helped his weight loss.Basketball Network Cory Booker says Democrats are ‘desperate’ for fresh leadersIn an appearance May 24 on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Sen. Cory Booker said the Democratic Party “desperat…USA TODAY The pig in the python: Baby Boomers are strangling the economy they built by refusing to move or retireFrom the housing market to the corner office, America is paying the price for a generation that never learned to let goFortune New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh suggests he may take an Alan Greenspan-style approach at the central bankNewly sworn-in Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh harkened back to former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, the last chair to be sw…Yahoo Finance More like this
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Amos 5:11 – Transforming Relationships: Biblical Fellowship and Service
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Amos 5:11
(11) Forasmuch therefore as your treading is upon the poor, and ye take from him burdens of wheat: ye have built houses of hewn stone, but ye shall not dwell in them; ye have planted pleasant vineyards, but ye shall not drink wine of them.
King James Version Change email Bible version
Amos says that another change will be in a person’s relationships with people. In the church, we call this “fellowship.” The untransformed attitude toward people to use people to promote personal interests. People are objects to be used by the unconverted.
Consider Christ’s words in Luke 22:24-27:
Now there was also a dispute among them, as to which of them should be considered the greatest. And He said to them, “The kings of the Gentiles exercise lordship over them, and those who exercise authority over them are called ‘benefactors.’ But not so among you; on the contrary, he who is greatest among you, let him be as the younger, and he who governs as he who serves. For who is greater, he who sits at the table, or he who serves? Is it not he who sits at the table? Yet I am among you as the One who serves.” (Our emphasis.)
We have a strong tendency to apply these verses only to those in authority, but it applies to everybody, regardless of status. The carnal-minded take advantage of every opportunity to promote themselves and their interests. The carnal will lie, scheme, steal, twist the truth, deceive, slander, dishonor their parents, and even murder to get their own way, to come out on top, to win, to look good, to get acclaim, or to get rich.
We have clichés like, “Winning is the only thing” or “If you’ve got it, flaunt it.” Those are extremes, but the carnal mind thinks in that direction and attitude. The unconverted use people and situations for their advantage.
A converted person, one whom God is transforming, will not do that. He will put himself, humbly and willingly as Christ did, in the position of a servant. He will not misuse others. At times, he will allow himself to be used—evidence of his transformation into the image of Christ—to make a proper witness for God.
The attitude we see out in the world is especially important to those of us reared under the pervasive influence of American capitalism. Its attitude of intense competition is the driver, the motivation, behind almost everything going on in this country. So, what we witness out in public is an excess of virtually everything except genuine love for one another. It is a major reason divorce is so prevalent today. Vanity and pride are driving husband and wife to compete rather than cooperate.
Truly, coming into contact with God is a humbling experience because now we can start to see ourselves as we should. What happens then is transformation, and true fellowship begins when we seek Him.
Jesus brought this up for at least three reasons: One, to show what God is like in His attitude toward His creation. Two, to show us what we should try to emulate. Three, to help us see evidence of conversion in ourselves.
— John W. Ritenbaugh
To learn more, see:
Prayer and Seeking God
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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for May 24th
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The #1 stock to buy BEFORE the June S-1 filing (From Behind the Markets)
The Smart Glasses Gold Rush Is Leaving Old-School Eyewear Behind
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson

The augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) adoption curve has hit a structural inflection point, pivoting rapidly from high-friction headsets to mass-market, AI-integrated smart eyewear. Validated by massive commercial traction from early incumbents, the rollout of the Android XR ecosystem signals a highly lucrative hardware supercycle. This shift presents an opportunity for investors, with market data suggesting enormous upside for the hyperscalers and precision manufacturers who capture the optical-electronic convergence, while traditional brands face significant headwinds.
For years, spatial computing was a story of niche, isolating headsets, a market perpetually waiting for its breakthrough moment. That narrative is now obsolete. The catalyst that proved the market has crossed into mainstream adoption came from the partnership between Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) and EssilorLuxottica (OTCMKTS: ESLOY). The alliance sold over seven million units of its Ray-Ban AI-integrated frames in 2025 alone, a figure that confirms a robust consumer appetite for ambient, wearable technology that integrates seamlessly into daily life. This commercial success has now forced a competitive response, officially igniting the smart glasses war.
Platform Wars: Choosing Your Champion
The battle for market dominance is quickly consolidating around two major ecosystems. On one side stands the incumbent Meta-EssilorLuxottica alliance, which leverages the powerful brand recognition of Ray-Ban and Meta HorizonOS’s established user base.
On the other hand is the newly unveiled Android XR platform, a formidable collaboration led by Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Samsung (OTCMKTS: SSNLF). This new ecosystem aims to replicate the open-source success of the Android smartphone model, where a common operating system fuels innovation across multiple hardware partners.
Google provides the Gemini AI software and operating system, Samsung contributes core processing and component expertise, and fashion-forward eyewear companies like Warby Parker (NYSE: WRBY) serve as the initial hardware and distribution partners.
However, the market’s reaction to this unveiling provides a critical insight into where value is expected to accrue. In the two days following the announcement, Warby Parker’s stock price slid nearly 15%. Investors were unimpressed by the revelation that its first-generation product would be audio-only, lacking the integrated visual display many consider true augmented reality.
This immediate and harsh repricing suggests the market views Warby Parker not as a technology peer, but as a commoditized hardware partner, essentially a stylish casing for Google’s powerful software. WRBY’s staggering price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio exceeding 1,200x appears difficult to justify without a proprietary software moat. A pattern of recent insider selling, including significant stock disposals by a director and the CEO, further reinforces this bearish sentiment.
Where the Real AR Money Is Made
While facing new competition, incumbent EssilorLuxottica is not standing still. Despite EssilorLuxottica’s stock pricefacing pressure and declining by more than 35% year-to-date as investors price in a more fragmented market, EssilorLuxottica is making strategic moves to build a defensible moat. The recent acquisition of Faro, a specialized Italian manufacturer known for high-precision milling, is a clear attempt to control the means of production.
By internalizing the complex engineering required to embed technology into frames without compromising design, EssilorLuxottica is betting on advanced manufacturing as a key differentiator.
This creates a physical bottleneck that software-focused partners and lower-cost assemblers may struggle to replicate.
EssilorLuxottica’s strategy stands in stark contrast to the tech giants’ approach.
The market is clearly rewarding the companies that own the underlying software and core infrastructure. Alphabet’s stock price, for example, has climbed about 25% year-to-date.
These gains are not tied to the physical frames but to the immense value of the AI models, operating systems, and semiconductor chips that power the entire experience. Alphabet’s recent joint venture with Blackstone to build out a next-generation AI data center empire underscores this point. Alphabet is investing billions in the foundational infrastructure that will support not just smart glasses, but a whole universe of AI-driven services. For tech hyperscalers, smart glasses are simply another endpoint, another vehicle to deploy their high-margin software and collect valuable data.
A Clear-Eyed View of AR Investment
The emerging smart glasses supercycle is less about the brand on the frame and more about the operating system running inside. The central conflict is a three-way race between Meta’s HorizonOS, Google’s Android XR, and Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) visionOS. These software platforms represent the true long-term moats that will dictate market leadership for the next decade.
This structural shift requires investors to recalibrate their approach to gaining exposure to the AR/VR thesis. The data suggests that while eyewear brands may see volume growth, they also face the risk of severe margin compression as the hardware becomes commoditized.
The primary beneficiaries appear poised to be the technology providers who control the software ecosystems and the key component suppliers. Of course, this sector is not without risks. Significant macro headwinds could emerge from regulatory bodies concerned with the privacy implications of always-on cameras and microphones. Furthermore, Samsung’s current labor disputes in South Korea could create near-term supply chain disruptions and margin pressure.
Investors with a long-term thesis on spatial computing may want to monitor the hyperscalers who own the emerging operating systems, as they appear to be capturing the lion’s share of the value chain. For those seeking exposure to the physical hardware, the key differentiator may not be brand recognition but rather proprietary manufacturing capabilities that can defend against commoditization. The recent market volatility suggests that in the new era of wearable AI, a powerful software stack is proving to be a much more durable asset than a stylish frame. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
ALERT: Drop these 5 stocks before the market opens tomorrow! (Ad)


The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.
Some of America’s most popular stocks could take serious damage as a radical market shift plays out. Analysts at Weiss Ratings have identified five names you may want to remove from your portfolio before this unfolds.
If any of these are in your portfolio, now is the time to review your positions. SEE THE 5 STOCKS TO AVOID
3 Rare Earth Stocks That Win No Matter What China Does Next
Written by Bridget Bennett

A U.S.-China rare earth truce is technically in effect, but China is still throttling shipments, shortages persist, and Trump left Beijing last week without a confirmed extension of the agreement, which expires in November 2026.
For investors watching the domestic rare earth sector, the fine print matters more than the headline.
China controls roughly 70% of global rare earth mining and processes between 85% and 90% of the global supply. Those minerals, which are used in permanent magnets for AI data centers, electric vehicles, and military hardware, don’t have a quick Western replacement. The truce bought time, but the underlying problem is unchanged.
That’s the setup Sean Brodrick of Weiss Ratings has been watching closely. His thesis: even if China eases supply, the U.S. government has committed to maintaining a price floor for critical domestic producers, meaning the economics don’t collapse just because Chinese exports resume.
Washington has made its strategic priorities clear, and it’s backing them with capital. And, as Brodrick notes, China has shown a willingness to reimpose restrictions when it suits them. The truce clock is already running.
The Minerals Powering the New Economy
Rare earth elements aren’t a niche industrial input; they’re embedded in the infrastructure of the modern economy.
The four key magnetic rare earths—neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—are essential for the permanent magnets that run everything from EV motors to AI data center equipment.
The heavy rare earths, such as dysprosium and terbium, are particularly critical because they protect magnets from heat-induced degradation, making them indispensable in high-performance applications.
China’s export control playbook has specifically targeted these materials. Restrictions introduced in late 2024 and expanded through 2025 covered gallium, germanium, antimony, and several rare earth elements. The November 2025 truce paused those controls, but customs data shows Beijing is still limiting shipments in practice, keeping supply tight and prices elevated.
For U.S. companies that depend on these materials for defense systems, semiconductors, and clean energy hardware, a pause that doesn’t fully function isn’t a supply chain strategy. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) CEO Tim Cook has already responded, striking a supply agreement with MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) to source domestically produced rare earths—a signal of how seriously major U.S. companies are taking the risk.
Critical Metals Corp.: The Greenland Play
Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ: CRML) is developing the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland, one of the largest rare earth deposits on the planet.
The U.S. Export-Import Bank has issued a letter of interest for a potential $120 million funding package, and the company has secured approval to increase its ownership stake in Tanbreez to 92.5%.
What gives Critical Metals its strategic weight is the nature of the deposit.
Tanbreez is a heavy rare-earth resource, a specific category China has most aggressively restricted. That’s not a coincidence. For U.S. defense independence, projects like Tanbreez aren’t optional. Brodrick sees CRML as having significant room to run from current levels, noting it remains well below the highs it hit when U.S.-China tensions peaked.
Critical Metals is still in development and pre-revenue. The timeline to production is measured in years, not quarters. Government support helps reduce financing risk, but substantial execution and permitting hurdles remain.
USA Rare Earth: Mine to Magnet
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) is building something rarer than the minerals it mines: a fully domestic, vertically integrated rare earth supply chain.
The company controls Round Top Mountain in West Texas, which hosts at least 15 of the 17 rare-earth elements, and a commercial magnet production facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma.
The U.S. Department of Commerce has backed the company with a nonbinding letter of intent worth $1.6 billion, including $277 million in CHIPS Act funding.
USAR has been one of the more volatile names in the sector, swinging sharplyon each policy headline. Brodrick’s view on that volatility: it’s an entry point, not a reason to stay away. The government price floor means the long-term economics aren’t purely at the mercy of whatever China decides this November.
For investors who can tolerate the swings, the mine-to-magnet vertical is a structural advantage in a sector where most companies control only one piece of the chain.
When supply dips on positive China headlines, Brodrick’s instinct is to buy because the restrictions can always come back, and the domestic buildout has to happen regardless.
American Rare Earths: The Early-Stage Wild Card
The most speculative of the three is American Rare Earths Ltd. (OTCMKTS: ARRNF). Despite the name, it’s an Australian company operating in the U.S., developing the Halleck Creek project in Wyoming, which the company describes as the largest rare earth resource in North America.
Halleck Creek contains the four key magnetic rare earth elements and carries a notable advantage over many global deposits: unusually low levels of radioactive elements, which reduces regulatory hurdles to permitting and operations. The U.S. government has supported the company’s technical development through R&D partnerships, and that work has produced processing breakthroughs that the company says lower operating costs. A pre-feasibility study is expected, followed by a pilot phase that would ship mined material to Saskatchewan for refined oxide production. American Rare Earths has also stated plans to uplist to the Nasdaq.
This one carries the most risk of the three. There is no direct U.S. government equity stake yet, and the stock trades at a fraction of a dollaron the OTC market. Brodrick is candid about that: the odds favor this team, this project, and this location—Wyoming is among the most mining-friendly states in the country—but nothing is guaranteed.
The Longer View
A truce that expires in November 2026—and that China is already working around in practice—is not a supply chain solution. China has a demonstrated willingness to use export restrictions as economic leverage, and nothing in the current agreement changes that structural reality. The question isn’t whether domestic rare earth development matters—Washington has already answered that with significant capital commitments. The question is: which projects have the assets, the management, and the staying power to see them through?
Brodrick’s framework is straightforward: volatility in this sector is noise. The signal is the long-term buildout of a domestic rare earth industry that the U.S. cannot afford to leave undone. Pullbacks are the entry. What happens in any one trade negotiation is a chapter. The book is much longer. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
The #1 stock to buy BEFORE the June S-1 filing (Ad)

When the SpaceX IPO launches, most retail investors will be locked out. The banks, funds, and insiders get in early – while everyone else waits on the sidelines.
But one small infrastructure supplier – a critical piece Musk can’t scale the Colossus network without – is still trading well under institutional radar. A new briefing reveals the name and ticker at no cost.GET THE SPACEX INFRASTRUCTURE STOCK NAME AND TICKER HERE
Amylyx Stock: Why the Full Pipeline Story Matters
Written by Chris Markoch

The idiom “never judge a book by its cover” can cut both ways when it comes to clinical-stage biotechnology companies like Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AMLX). The stock is up over 140% in the last 12 months as the company has made progress on its pipeline.
One of the drugs in the pipeline is Avexitide, a treatment for post-bariatric hypoglycemia after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery. In early May, Amylyx announced it had completed full enrollment in its Phase 3 trial, LUCIDITY. Topline results are expected in Q3 2026, which is pivotal for the short-term outlook for AMLX.
However, this is a story that’s playing out in three distinct chapters that will take years to fully develop. And, as is the case with even large-cap biotech companies, execution is always a risk. Investors saw that with another company, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN), on May 18, when it delivered Phase 3 results for its melanoma study of fianlimab + Libtayo that failed to meet its primary endpoint versus Keytruda, the industry standard from Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK).
That said, positive news is positive news. Amylyx is committed to developing treatments for diseases with high unmet needs. Here’s a full read on the company’s progress as of late May, 2026.
Chapter 1: A GLP-1 Contrarian Play
Amylyx is taking the opposite approach to the GLP-1 boom: instead of developing agonists for weight loss, the company is developing a GLP-1 antagonist. Avexitide is a first-in-class GLP-1 antagonist that could become the first-ever FDA-approved therapy for post-bariatric hypoglycemia (PBH). This is a metabolic condition that affects approximately 8% of patients in the United States who have undergone one of the two most common types of bariatric surgery.
A key consideration for investors is that PBH has a small addressable market of around 160,000. So while it’s addressing the GLP-1 market, it’s addressing it in a niche fashion. That doesn’t make it any less relevant. But if investors are going to look at Amylyx with conviction, they’ll need to take a wider view.
Chapter 2: An Important Proof of Concept
Next in the company’s pipeline is AMX0035, the company’s therapeutic for Wolfram Syndrome. This is a rare genetic disease that presents significant challenges for patients. It usually begins in childhood with insulin-requiring diabetes and is marked by progressive optic nerve changes that affect vision and can involve broader neurological symptoms that increasingly affect daily life.
The addressable global market is estimated to be about 15,000 to 30,000, with about 1,000 to 2,000 in the United States. AMX0035 is in its Phase 2 HELIOS trial, and Amylyx has already delivered positive results at both the Week 24 and Week 48 milestones. The company plans to share Week 96 data later this year.
This is an incredibly small market, but it can serve as proof of how Amylyx can treat neurodegenerative diseases, which is where the plot thickens.
Chapter 3: When the Plot Really Takes Off
Further back in the company’s pipeline is AMX0114, the company’s treatment for ALS. The global ALS therapeutics market is expected to reach $1.7 billion in 2034 and is growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%. This is a market with essentially no disease-modifying options. That gives pricing power to companies that develop anything that demonstrably works.
Amylyx has completed enrollment of Cohort 2 of its ongoing Phase 1 trial in March 2026, with early biomarker data from Cohort 1 expected to be delivered in June 2026. Significantly, the drug carries FDA Fast Track Designation, and the early readouts have been positive.
But this is still a drug in its early phases. It will be 2029 or 2030 at the earliest before investors will have a line of sight on commercial production.
Time Is Your Friend
Investors who are planning to hold AMLX for the long haul can build a position over time. One idea is to divide a position into thirds and allocate one-third of the capital to each pipeline milestone.
That way, investors can capture the potential upside with less downside risk. The Amylyx analyst forecasts on MarketBeat give the stock a consensus price target of $23, a gain of over 60% from its opening price on May 21. But that implies that the results the company is expected to deliver later this year will be positive.
It’s also important to note that AMLX has about 15% short interest, which is meaningful given the stock’s 20% decline over the 30 days ending May 20. That reflects the recent earnings report, which served as a reminder that the company is not profitable and has not yet generated revenue.

The company is a niche play today. Whether it’s being priced for its future growth remains to be seen. Like many biotech stocks, Amylyx has risk, but the upside may be worth a speculative position. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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