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Sunday’s Exclusive Article

The Hot Dog Hedge: Smithfield Acquires Nathan’s Famous

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Article Published: 1/25/2026. 

Article Highlights

• Smithfield is funding the entire acquisition of Nathan’s Famous with cash on hand to avoid high interest rates and deliver immediate earnings growth for shareholders.
• The deal transforms Smithfield from a manufacturer into a brand owner, eliminating licensing fees and capturing the full profit margin on retail products.
• Acquiring a premium beef brand allows the company to diversify its protein portfolio and utilize its massive scale to better manage input costs.

For companies that have recently returned to the public markets, the first major acquisition is a defining moment: it shows investors how management plans to deploy capital for growth. Smithfield Foods (NASDAQ: SFD), which completed its IPO in January 2025, has wasted little time. The pork industry giant has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Nathan’s Famous (NASDAQ: NATH) for $102 per share.

Beyond the headline about two iconic American brands joining forces, the deal is a deliberate financial move to convert ongoing royalty payments into immediate earnings. By leveraging its large operational scale, Smithfield plans to optimize a brand it already manufactures for. For shareholders, this looks less like a speculative bet and more like a high-probability return.

A Cash Deal in a Debt World

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The transaction terms underscore a conservative approach. Smithfield will pay $102 per share in an all-cash deal, valuing the enterprise at roughly $450 million, and it is funding the purchase entirely with cash on hand.

With borrowing costs still elevated, many buyers must take on new debt to fund acquisitions — adding interest expense that can erode future profits. Smithfield’s ability to finance this purchase without issuing debt is a sign of balance-sheet strength. The company finished the third quarter of fiscal 2025with more than $3 billion in available funds and a modest leverage ratio of about 0.8x net debt to adjusted EBITDA.

Deploying idle cash to buy an operating business typically outperforms leaving it in a low-interest account, where inflation can erode value. Smithfield expects the acquisition to be immediately accretive to adjusted earnings per share, adding to the company’s bottom line upon closing rather than after a lengthy turnaround.

Moreover, Smithfield pays a dividend yield of roughly 4.32%, and this purchase helps support that payout by securing more predictable cash flows. The strategy reflects a preference for high-probability returns over speculative ventures.

From Renter to Owner: A $9 Million Opportunity

At the heart of the deal is the elimination of licensing fees. For more than a decade Smithfield has manufactured and distributed Nathan’s retail products, but without owning the brand it paid high-margin royalties back to Nathan’s corporate entity.

Acquiring Nathan’s ends those payments. Smithfield projects about $9 million in annual run-rate cost savings within two years of closing, much of it from eliminating the licensing obligation. The transaction converts Smithfield from a brand renter into an owner, allowing it to capture the full profit on every package sold.

Mergers often carry integration risk — combining factories, systems, and workforces can be costly and complex. This deal carries minimal integration risk because Smithfield already operates the supply chain for Nathan’s retail business. The same factories will continue producing the products, so there are no major system consolidations or plant closures required. It is largely a change in financial ownership rather than an operational overhaul, letting Smithfield streamline its Packaged Meats segment with little friction.

Beef vs. Pork: The Inflation Hedge

Commodity dynamics help explain the timing. Nathan’s products are 100% beef and recently faced a 16%–20% jump in the cost of beef and trimmings. As a smaller, beef-focused standalone company, Nathan’s had limited tools to offset that inflation.

Smithfield, by contrast, is the world’s largest pork processor and hog producer and is benefiting from lower grain and feed costs that support its core margins. Adding a premium beef brand diversifies Smithfield’s protein mix, providing a natural hedge: when pork margins weaken, beef may perform better, and vice versa.

More importantly, Smithfield brings procurement scale, hedging capabilities and buying power that a smaller business like Nathan’s could not match. Those advantages should help stabilize input costs for Nathan’s products and protect margins over time.

Consumer behavior also matters. During periods of inflation, shoppers often trade down from expensive cuts to more affordable processed options such as hot dogs and sausages. Owning a premium hot dog brand positions Smithfield to capture that volume and strengthens its position across both pork and beef categories.

Disciplined Growth: A Strategic Base Hit

This acquisition is a high-probability base hit rather than a risky home run swing. It does not dramatically change Smithfield’s scale, but it secures a valuable asset long term. Previously, Smithfield’s rights to the Nathan’s brand were set to expire in 2032; the deal removes that expiration and locks the cash flows into Smithfield’s operations in perpetuity.

The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to customary regulatory reviews, including the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). The companies have included customary termination fees and closing conditions that reflect confidence in the timing.

For shareholders, this move reinforces the Moderate Buy consensus around the stock. It bolsters the case that Smithfield is a disciplined capital allocator willing to use its strong balance sheet to lock in long-term value. By removing the licensor from the equation, Smithfield has simplified its economics and set the stage for sustained margin improvement in its Packaged Meats business. Investors now have a clear catalyst to monitor as Smithfield converts a long-standing manufacturing relationship into permanent ownership.

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Further Reading from MarketBeat Media

Why Walmart Continues to Rally While Executives Sell the Stock

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 1/27/2026. 

In Brief

• Walmart is rapidly evolving into a high-margin technology company by automating its supply chain and expanding its lucrative digital advertising business.
• The recent wave of executive stock sales is a standard practice tied to a leadership transition, rather than a signal of weak corporate fundamentals.
• Institutional investors continue to buy the stock because the company dominates the retail sector, has a massive competitive moat, and pays a reliable dividend.

Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) is currently defying expectations. The stock is trading near all-time highs — around $118 per share — and the company is closing in on a historic $1 trillion market capitalization. By most financial measures, the retail giant is firing on all cylinders, outperforming competitors and the broader retail sector. Yet for investors watching the insider trading dashboard, a contradictory signal appears: while the market is buying aggressively, many executives are selling.

Over the last 12 months, tracking data shows a clear disparity: zero open-market purchases by insiders and more than $60 million in sales. Typically, insider selling can be interpreted as reduced confidence in a company’s prospects. Still, Walmart’s stock price is up over 5% in the last 30 days and up 10% in the past 90 days.

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To reconcile that disconnect, investors need to look beyond the headline numbers. Walmart is evolving from a primarily brick-and-mortar grocer into a higher-margin, technology-enabled business. That transition, combined with the company’s strength during uncertain economic times, suggests institutional confidence is considerably stronger than the caution flagged by executive sales.

Profit Taking or Loss of Faith?

When a CEO liquidates millions in company stock it attracts attention. In January 2026, outgoing CEO Doug McMillon sold approximately 19,416 shares, a transaction valued at over $2.3 million. Incoming CEO John Furner also sold roughly $1.5 million in stock, and other senior executives, including Executive Vice President Daniel Bartlett, executed sizable sales during the same period.

At first glance, a ledger showing 10 insiders selling and zero buying over the last year looks bearish. However, three key factors provide important context that reduces the perceived risk:

• The changing of the guard: The selling coincides with a major leadership transition. McMillon is retiring on January 31, 2026, and Furner assumes the CEO role on February 1. Executives commonly liquidate shares for estate planning, tax planning or to diversify their portfolios when leaving a role or taking on new responsibilities.
• Selling into strength: These sales occurred near recent highs — roughly $118–$120 per share — after about a 24% annual rally. Exiting positions at elevated valuations is often rational profit-taking rather than a sign of panic.
• Market absorption: Despite millions of dollars of insider supply hitting the market, the stock has held up. Buyer demand from institutional investors has been sufficient to absorb those sales, suggesting that market participants still see value.

The Ultimate Recession Hedge: Winning the Trade-Down

The 2026 economic backdrop remains mixed, with lingering inflationary pressures and uneven growth. In such environments, consumers tend not to stop spending; they change where they spend. This “trade-down” effect sees shoppers move from premium grocers like Whole Foods or mid-tier chains such as Target (NYSE: TGT) to Walmart to stretch their budgets.

Walmart’s Everyday Low Price promise attracts value-conscious customers, and the composition of that customer base is shifting. Data from the company’s third-quarter earnings indicates market-share gains are being driven in part by higher-income households earning over $100,000 annually.

This demographic broadening creates a durable competitive moat, insulating Walmart from economic swings that typically hurt retailers dependent primarily on lower-income shoppers. When the economy wobbles, Walmart’s customer base tends to expand rather than contract.

For conservative investors, the stock also provides an income cushion:

• Dividend status: Walmart is a Dividend King, having increased its dividend for 53 consecutive years.
• Yield & safety: With a current yield of about 0.80% and a payout ratio near 32%of earnings, the dividend appears sustainable.

That mix of steady income and defensive demand helps cement Walmart’s role as a core holding for investors seeking stability without forgoing growth exposure.

Beyond Brick and Mortar: The Tech-Powered Future

Value investors often balk at Walmart’s valuation. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio near 41x, well above historical retail averages around 20x–25x. But the market increasingly values Walmart as more than a traditional grocer — it’s being re-rated as a hybrid of retail and technology.

The rationale for a premium valuation lies in higher-margin revenue streams that don’t depend on selling physical goods:

• Advertising business: Walmart’s global advertising operations, helped by the Vizio acquisition, grew 53% in the most recent quarter. Selling digital ads on Walmart.comand connected-TV inventory generates much higher profit margins than selling groceries, and expansion of this segment can disproportionately boost earnings.
• AI and automation: Walmart is deploying technology to improve its cost structure. The company is rolling out Sparky, an AI shopping assistant developed in partnership with OpenAI, to personalize the shopping experience. More than half of its e-commerce fulfillment volume is now automated, permanently lowering the cost to serve and enabling Walmart to compete on price while protecting margins.

Even Walmart’s strategic move to list on the NASDAQ signals an alignment with technology peers rather than legacy retailers, and investors appear willing to pay a premium for that strategic shift.

Why Fundamentals Outweigh the Noise

Insider-trading alerts can be unnerving, but good investing separates noise from signal. The recent executive selling at Walmart appears structural — tied to a historic leadership transition and reasonable profit-taking at elevated prices — and has not halted the stock’s momentum because broader market buying is grounded in solid fundamentals.

Walmart combines defensive stability through grocery dominance with offensive growth from advertising and automation. Whether the economy slows or accelerates, the company is positioned to capture value. For investors navigating 2026, Walmart remains a core holding that offers downside protection alongside upside potential.

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Nintendo Stock Falls 20%—But the Rebound Case Is Growing

Written by Chris Markoch on February 6, 2026 

In Brief

• Nintendo shares have pulled back sharply despite strong console-unit milestones, creating a potential 2026 rebound setup.
• Engagement, software releases, and brand licensing could support Switch2 ecosystem growth through 2026.
• Easing input costs and supply-chain shifts may help margins, while technicals suggest oversold conditions.

In the first half of 2025, Nintendo (OTCMKTS: NTDOY) was not only one of the best-performing consumer discretionary stocksbut a market standout as well. It surged 76% in anticipation of the company’s long-awaited Switch2 release. But it seems traders weren’t looking to stay long, as the stock is down 20% in the last 12 months and over 18% year-to-date as of Feb. 5.

It wasn’t that Switch2 sales disappointed. The company has sold 155.4 million units of its new console, surpassing the previous record of 154 million units by the Nintendo DS. However, there have been concerns over the number not being better. That corresponds with lower profit numbers, cautious forward guidance, tariff risks, and softer-than-expected holiday demand.

However, this could be a case of a stock being so bad, it’s good. There are catalysts that suggest 2026 could be a bounce-back year for NTDOY stock.

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The Best May Be Yet to Come for Switch2 Sales

Nintendo’s latest investor presentation hints that the best growth phase for the Switch2 ecosystem may still be ahead. The company announced that active monthly users reached an all-time high, with engagement levels up nearly 25% year-over-year.

That’s an encouraging sign that players are not just buying the console but staying in the ecosystem. In addition, the paid Nintendo Switch Online membership base expanded, with the attach rate improving due to the launch of more bundled hardware options.

This will also be a year when Nintendo releases Switch2 versions of many of its most popular titles. Alongside upcoming releases tied to “The Legend of Zelda” and “Splatoon” franchises, Nintendo confirmed ongoing development for its next-generation game engine, which could enhance long-tail monetization for Switch2.

This gives investors a clear reason to view 2026 not as a late-cycle phase, but as a platform-expansion year.

Adding to the excitement, Super Mario turns 40 this year. To celebrate the milestone, a “Super Mario Galaxy” movie will be released. The box office success of “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” in 2023 nearly doubled the brand’s licensing revenue, and management reiterated plans for cross-promotional campaigns that convert movie audiences into active players. If the upcoming Galaxy movie can perform as well, it could spark both console and software demand heading into the holiday season.

Cost and Tariff Headwinds Could Ease

The company’s margin pressure in recent quarters stemmed from higher memory component prices and elevated transport and tariff expenses. However, management highlighted during the presentation that these headwinds are beginning to moderate. Contract memory prices started declining in early 2026, and component costs for NAND and DDR5 memory have shown early signs of stabilization.

Nintendo also stated that it is diversifying its supply chains outside of China and pursuing more local assembly in Vietnam. Those moves will help hedge against prolonged tariff risks. These measures, combined with favorable foreign exchange positions, suggest that much of the recent cost compression may prove temporary.

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Why the Thesis Could Be Wrong

The bullish case assumes Switch2 remains the dominant platform through 2026, but it comes with risks. Consumer fatigue could set in if Nintendo’s first-party lineup slows, especially with Sony Group (NYSE: SONY)and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) expected to introduce hardware refreshes this year.

Hardware margins also remain sensitive to component pricing. Memory and silicon costs could rebound rather than normalize. In that case, Nintendo’s profitability could remain under pressure longer than expected. And while franchise-based films have driven engagement, movie tie-ins are inherently unpredictable. Disappointing box-office results could dent sentiment and licensing revenue.

Lastly, the gaming industry’s transition toward cloud and subscription ecosystems still poses a strategic challenge. Nintendo has chosen a slower, more conservative path toward online monetization, which could leave it trailing competitors on recurring revenue growth if player preferences shift more quickly than expected.

The NTDOY Chart Supports the Comeback Story

For those who buy into the supportive thesis for Switch2 sales, then the next question is whether now is a good time to get in on Nintendo stock. The chart answers in the affirmative.

For starters, the latest selling has pushed the stock price below its lower Bollinger band. This is a technical signal indicating a trend reversal, and NTDOY stock has historically responded to such a signal with a rebound.

The stock is also oversold from a momentum perspective. The relative strength indicator (RSI) is at 28.6, which indicates oversold conditions. On their own, neither signal is a confirmed buy signal. However, when you put them together, it’s a good indication that sentiment could change.

If it does, investors should look for NTDOY stock to reclaim the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). That would be a 17% gain from the price as of this writing.

Read this article online ›

Further Reading

• McDonald’s Earnings Could Cement Its Defensive Appeal
• Buffett’s Parting Gift to Berkshire Hathaway? (From Brownstone Research)
• Affirm Earnings Beat Highlights Growth and Credit Concerns
• 5 Stocks That Could Double in 2026(From TradingTips)
• Symbotic’s Earnings Beat Reignites Upside Talk
• Amazon’s Earnings Miss Was Small, But the Market’s Message Wasn’t
• IREN Earnings Were Ugly—Is a Beautiful Future Already Funded?

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Today’s Featured Link: Trade this between 9:30 and 10:45 am EST (From Base Camp Trading)

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February 8, 2026

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Milan Cortina Opening Ceremony Paraded the Wonder of Italy to the World

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The 2026 Winter Olympics are officially underway with a rousing display of Italian culture in a nation that is constantly struggling with letting go of fond memories from its past.

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Albert Breer’s NFL Awards Ballot: Drake Maye for MVP, Matthew Stafford for First-Team All-Pro

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In the wake of the Bill Belichick Hall of Fame controversy, it’s best to be transparent about votes for individual honors. Plus, the Nick Emmanwori injury could be cause for concern in Seattle.

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February 07, 2026 

The Lithium Boom 

Did you know it takes 10,000 iPhone batteries worth of lithium to make one EV battery pack? With 350M+ EVs projected to be sold globally by 2030, lithium demand is looking steep. 

Current recovery methods involve waiting for liquids to evaporate in ponds the size of 100 football fields. This inefficiency can’t keep up with forecasted demand. But EnergyX’s technology can recover up to 3X more lithium than traditional methods. 

Here’s how they’re redefining the $546B energy storage market: 

• Disruption: EnergyX’s GET-LiT™ technology recovers lithium from brine at the lowest cost when benchmarked against industry leaders, and it’s protected by 120+ patents. 
• Ecosystem: From recovery to deployment, EnergyX is building a vertically integrated platform to power the global transition to EVs, backed by investment from leaders like General Motors and Eni. 
• Opportunity: EnergyX is offering everyday investors the chance to join ahead of full-scale commercialization.

A third-party pre-feasibility study recently confirmed EnergyX’s Project Black Giant™ in Chile has the potential to generate over $1.1B annually at projected market prices once fully operational. 

On top of that, their nearly 50,000 acres of land in Texas and Arkansas has some of the highest lithium concentrations ever recorded in the U.S. 

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Your Northern Cardinal is ready to brighten someone’s day. Start your annual gift now to help protect the birds you love—and receive a Northern Cardinal plush as thanks.Northern Cardinal.

Peter Anthony, Valentine’s Day has long been linked to birds—some scholars even suggest the holiday’s February timing connects to birds’ mating season. So this month, we’re celebrating a feathered classic that feels like a love note in flight: the Northern Cardinal.

With its brilliant color, bold crest, and clear whistled song, the Northern Cardinal can brighten the coldest winter day—and it’s beloved enough to be the official state bird of no fewer than seven eastern states. When you start an annual donation today, you’ll power year-round work to protect cardinals and other birds—and we’ll send a Northern Cardinal plush as a symbolic gift to you or a special someone in your life.Birds urgently need the protection of people who care about them and are ready to help—people like you, Peter Anthony. Last year’s State of the Birds report warns that one-third of U.S. birds need conservation action, and that birds are telling us that the habitats people depend on are vanishing, with declines happening across habitats.

But thanks to support from generous people like you, there are real solutions to the crisis birds are facing. For 120 years and counting, we have preserved habitats, conducted scientific research, influenced policymakers to enact commonsense conservation laws, and engaged communities across the hemisphere to protect the natural resources upon which birds—and we—depend.

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Old champions won’t drive future market returns

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Tomorrow, the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks will vie for the NFL Championship in Super Bowl LX (60 for those who don’t regularly use Roman numerals).

But you might not know that it was called “The Super Bowl” only in 1969, for the third annual game.

It was originally called the AFL–NFL World Championship Game. The game was created as part of the merger between the National Football League and the competing American Football League to determine a single champion for the two different leagues.

Even today, both teams are already champions. The Patriots are the American Football Conference champions, and the Seahawks are the National Football Conference champions.

Every year, the Super Bowl brings together two teams that have already proven themselves champions. They survived a long season. They beat elite competition. And yet, when the final whistle blows, only one walks away with the trophy.

That’s the part most fans forget: By the time the Super Bowl kicks off, both teams are winners. But in the final stage, past success matters far less than execution, matchups, and preparation.

One champion advances. The other is left watching history from the sidelines.

The stock market is entering a similar moment right now – especially in technology.

For years, simply owning tech stocks was enough. The entire sector surged, and nearly every name benefited from the rising tide.

But that easy phase is over.

Today, tech is no longer competing against the rest of the market. It’s competing against itself.

And just like the Super Bowl, this next phase won’t reward popularity or past dominance. It will reward selectivity. Precision. And owning the right champions – not just yesterday’s winners.

So, how can investors stay on the richer side of this new technochasm? I’ll share insight today from legendary investor Louis Navellier, one big winner he has already found, and how it is all reflected in his Stock Grader system.

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A New Phase for an Old Market Trend

My colleague Jeff Remsburg and I have written a lot in the Digest about the “technochasm.” That’s the idea that the stock market created a new wealth divide.

Folks who invested in technology stocks accelerated their wealth, while those who did not were likely to end up on the wrong side of a divide and worse off.

Just looking at the technology-focused Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF versus the overall S&P 500 over the past decade shows how much better tech stocks have treated investors.

This week’s software meltdown shows that even tech stocks are now feeling the AI disruption. One glance at the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) compared to the general market over the last six months shows a new market reality.

When markets transition from one phase of growth to the next, leadership changes – and often it changes quickly.

Large, well-known stocks tend to dominate early in a cycle. Stocks such as Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) and Amazon.comInc. (AMZN) grab all the headlines and buying pressure in the market.

But as confidence builds and earnings momentum broadens, smaller, faster-growing companies begin to assert their market leadership.

Louis believes that rotation is underway.

Over the last six months, small-cap stocks moved decisively higher. The Russell 2000 surged almost 14%, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 8% gain.

Here is what Louis wrote about why this is happening now.

Small caps tend to be more domestic in nature, which means they benefit directly from U.S. economic growth. They also tend to move first when investors begin looking beyond yesterday’s winners and toward where the next phase of growth is likely to emerge.

One example is Louis’ recent recommendation of TTM Technologies Inc. (TTMI).

TTM is a top-tier manufacturer of advanced printed circuit boards (PCBs) and radio frequency (RF) components essential for AI data centers, networking, and high-speed computing infrastructure.

The company is experiencing significant demand growth driven by AI-related hardware needs, positioning it as a key supplier in the AI technology supply chain. And it’s current market cap is below $10 billion.

Since Louis’ recommendation in his Breakthrough Stocks service last August, the stock is up more than 100%.

Now, Louis isn’t saying it’s time to buy small caps indiscriminately.

But market leadership is changing, and companies positioned on the right side of this change are beginning to be rewarded.

The AI Dislocation Is Coming

Louis believes the markets are experiencing what he calls the “AI Dislocation.”

The first phase of the AI boom rewarded a narrow group of mega-cap leaders.

Those gains were powerful, but obvious. Everyone knew the names. Everyone crowded into the same trades. And expectations rose accordingly.

That was Stage 1.

What’s happening now is different.

As scrutiny increases and capital spending intensifies, the market is beginning to look deeper into the AI ecosystem – toward the smaller companies building the power systems, networking infrastructure, and enabling technologies that make AI scalable and profitable.

That’s Stage 2 – where the next wave of opportunity is taking shape.

This AI Dislocation isn’t the end of the AI boom. It’s a changing of the guard. 

How to Position Yourself for What’s Next

Louis is using his time-tested Stock Grader to help him identify the stocks best positioned to benefit from this market transition.

These are not obvious names from Phase 1 of the AI megatrend, such as Nvidia and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT).

Louis is finding smaller companies – companies most investors have never heard of.

These little-known small caps are positioned not only to survive a potential shakeout around February 25, but to thrive in the aftermath. He has recorded a special briefing to walk through what he sees coming in the markets and to describe the opportunity it presents to investors right now.

Here’s how he describes the event.

These are the kinds of setups that historically produce the biggest gains – not because the companies are flashy, but because expectations are still low while fundamentals are improving rapidly.

I’ll also show you how I’m positioning ahead of that shift, using my system to focus on fundamentally superior companies with the potential to deliver outsized gains as this next phase unfolds.

If you want a clearer roadmap for where the next AI-driven opportunities could come from – the market champions of the future, not the past – go here now for more details.

Enjoy your weekend,

Luis Hernandez
Editor in Chief, InvestorPlace

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