Elon Warns of Impending “Chip Wall.” His solution inside →

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Market Signal | A Timely Investment Alert from Lindsey Hough 

Editor’s Note: Silicon Valley legend Jeff Brown is forecasting that Elon Musk’s “Kardashev Project” is about to trigger the greatest wealth creation event in history. If you missed out on Tesla… Go here to see the details of what Elon has coming next or read more below. 

Elon Warns of Impending “Chip Wall.” 
Will you be on the right side?

Elon Musk warns of the biggest bottleneck threatening the AI economy… 

Without enough chips, AI will crumble, and the stocks it’s holding up will fall with it. 

America’s best tech entrepreneur, Elon Musk, helped build four of the most valuable companies in history. 

Now, he’s sounding the alarm about the impending chip wall threatening the AI bubble and every stock dependent on it.  

Electronics giants like Dell, Samsung, and Xiaomi are already warning customers of price hikes as chips become scarce. 

But Elon says he has a solution. 

A solution that could soon result in the world’s first $10 trillion company as Musk takes matters into his own hands. 

It’s all part of his master plan. 

For the everyday American who’s worked hard to build their nest egg, this could be your last chance to get on the right side. Before the chip wall changes everything we know about the AI economy… 

Preserving and even growing everything you’ve built for yourself. 

Go here to watch legendary tech investor and Silicon Valley angel investor Jeff Brown’s quick briefing and execute the simple steps to protect your future. 

History proves those who act first always fare best…
Will you be ready?

Learn the steps you need to take before March 31.

Regards, 

Lindsey Hough
Managing Director, Brownstone Research 

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I went live yesterday. Here’s what you missed.


Hey, Blake here.

Yesterday’s Dark Wire session is now available to watch.

If you missed it — this is your chance.

Watch the replay here.

Here’s what I covered:

February was my first losing month using the Dark Wire at TheoTRADE. I finished down 0.1%. After nine consecutive winning months, the streak ended. I’m not going to sugarcoat it.

But here’s the full picture. The markets in 2026 have been brutal. The Iran conflict has everything in a tailspin. Other traders are getting crushed. And the worst month this system produced was a fraction of a percent in the red.

March is already up 15%. And the day before yesterday I placed four trades using Dark Wire beacons — all four were winners.

Yesterday I walked through the entire system live. The overnight beacon scan. How those beacons give me a 12-hour head start on where institutional money is moving. The two-hour execution window I use every single morning.

Everything is in the replay. Watch it now before it comes down.

Click here to watch yesterday’s full Dark Wire session.

Blake Young


Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade.com  or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA |SIPC |NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment.Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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The Options Trader Who Retired at 42 Has a Warning

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The Options Trader Who Retired at 42 Has a Warning

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BY MICHAEL SALVATORE, EDITOR, TRADESMITH DAILY

Two and a half months into 2026, and the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 are both down.

And if you’ve been watching the headlines, you have a good idea why: software stocks getting crushed, a new slate of global tariffs, and the Iran conflict sending oil prices up 40%.

That’s exactly why I interviewed master options trader Jeff Clark this week.

Jeff has spent decades trading through volatile conditions like these and much, much worse. Think 1987, the dot-com bust, 2008 crash, COVID, and plenty in between.

He’s seen what happens when fear takes over. More important, he knows how to profit from it.

His tool of choice is options. But he doesn’t use them to gamble with reckless leverage.

In fact, Jeff believes you can take any stock trade idea and, with options, make more money with less risk every single time.

In this conversation, Jeff lays out why he believes much of the damage in this selloff has already been done – at least beneath the surface. And he reveals which sectors he’s watching for his next big trade.

This one’s worth your full attention.

chart

Jeff’s track record in 2026 speaks for itself.

Seven consecutive winning trades, averaging more than 87% gains, using a straightforward approach that anyone can follow.

He did that with his unique approach to options trading, built and refined over decades in the market.

If you’d like to learn more about Jeff’s approach, but aren’t too familiar with options, his beginner-friendly Jeff Clark Trader advisory is exactly what you’re looking for.

It’s not just a “trade of the month” newsletter. It comes with a mountain of educational resources that will help get you set up to trade options the right way.

Click here to learn more about Jeff Clark Trader and how you can get started for just $19 a year.

To building wealth beyond measure,

Michael Salvatore signature

Michael Salvatore
Editor, TradeSmith Daily

Recommended Link

Get into OpenAI before its Mega-IPO (for under $10)

Silicon Valley insider Luke Lango is stepping forward to share how you can get a pre-IPO stake in OpenAI (for under $10). It will likely be the biggest headline of 2026, and could create THOUSANDS of new millionaires. This is the best chance to achieve the biggest gains this year. Click here for the full story.

Do not ignore. Read immediately.

  Read online

My name is Porter Stansberry. 

I’m the founder of one of the largest financial research firms in the world. Over the last 26 years we’ve helped investors navigate almost every major economic cycle. 

We’ve also been on the forefront of every big financial story from the rise of Bitcoin and MRNA vaccines to robotics and artificial intelligence – just to name a few. 

But today, I’m breaking the biggest story of my career…

An economic story the likes of which we’ve not seen in centuries. In fact, the last – and only time – this happened was in 1776. But now, on the eve of America’s 250th anniversary, it’s happening again. 

And as you’ll discover today, the aftershock of this event could “reset” not just your personal wealth, but the entire U.S. economic system: 

How you work, how you vote, how you protect and build your wealth… it’s all being turned upside down by what one famous Stanford economist says is: 

“The biggest change ever… bigger than electricity… bigger than the steam engine.” 

Yet almost nobody is prepared for it. So, if you’ve been watching the chaos of the past year unfold, struggling to understand what it all means… you’re about to get many – if not all – of the answers you’ve been searching for.

And, most importantly, what it all means for you, your money, and your investment portfolio in the months ahead 

Because as you’ll discover, everything from the government taking stakes in companies like Intel, Lithium Americas, and MP Materials.

To Trump’s strike on Venezuela… his deal with Greenland… his seemingly never-ending slew of executive orders… and increasingly centralized grip over the economy… 

All the way to the surging popularity of radical socialist politicians like Bernie Sanders, AOC, and Zohran Mamdani… 

It’s all deeply and inexorably intertwined in what is, without a doubt, the most consequential story of the year. 

A turning point that one Nobel Prize winner says is dividing not just the economy but our entire society.

And, as my guest and I explain, the financial decisions you make in the face of this New 1776 Moment… they could dictate whether you’re enriched, left stuck in the past, or potentially even impoverished by the seismic changes barreling down upon America.

The stocks to buy… the stocks to sell… and the three money moves to ensure you and your loved ones end up on the winning side of this new economic reality. 

It’s all laid out here for you…

Good investing, 

Porter Stansberry


Special Report

Market Crash Warning? Wall Street Veteran Says Mid-March Could Mark a Turning Point

Written by Bridget Bennett. Originally Published: 3/11/2026. 

Computer screen shows plunging stock market chart beside ballot box and U.S. flag, highlighting election-driven market volatility risk.

Key Points

  • Marc Chaikin, founder and CEO of Chaikin Analytics, says the midterm year has historically been the weakest phase of the presidential cycle, with peaks often forming in mid-March to early April.
  • Even if indexes are near highs, internal weakness in speculative and large-cap tech can show up first and foreshadow broader downside.
  • Preparation matters: build cash, trim weak holdings, and watch key technical levels to stay flexible if volatility rises.
  • Special ReportCan Any Expenses Be Deducted From Capital Gains Tax? (From SmartAsset)

When asked about the market outlook heading into mid‑March, Wall Street veteran Marc Chaikin said current conditions are unfolding much as he predicted a year ago.

Chaikin, the founder and CEO of Chaikin Analytics, has more than 50 years of experience in the stock market and is known for blending fundamental and technical analysis. His current warning is rooted in the presidential election cycle, one of the market’s longest‑tracked seasonal patterns. Historically, the second year of a presidential term—often called the midterm year—has been the weakest stretch for equities.

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Looking at the last 17 presidential cycles, dating to the 1950s:

  • The second year of the cycle averaged just a 1% gain in the S&P 500.
  • The other three years averaged double‑digit returns.
  • Market peaks during midterm years often occur between mid‑March and early April.

That timing window is exactly where the market finds itself now.

Historical patterns don’t guarantee future outcomes, but Chaikin says they provide a useful framework for understanding probabilities—especially when other warning signs are emerging.

Markets Trading on Expectations, Not Fundamentals

Recent volatility highlights how sensitive markets have become to headlines and geopolitical developments.

Oil prices rising above $100 per barrel have reignited inflation concerns, while weak employment data suggests the economy may need lower interest rates.

That combination presents a difficult dilemma for the Federal Reserve.

Normally, rising inflation would push the Fed to raise rates, while weakening employment would argue for cuts. With both pressures occurring at once, the central bank’s flexibility may be limited.

Geopolitical tensions and rapidly shifting headlines add to the uncertainty. Real‑time information—often amplified through social media and political messaging—can prompt algorithmic trading systems to react instantly, accelerating short‑term market swings.

The result is an environment driven less by fundamentals and more by short‑term reactions and uncertainty.

Weakness Already Appearing Beneath the Surface

Despite the recent volatility, the broader market remains relatively close to its highs: the S&P 500 is only about 2% below its peak. For context, a correction is typically defined as a 10%–20% decline, while a bear market generally requires a 20% drop.

However, Chaikin says many popular stocks are already struggling.

Several of the so‑called Magnificent Seven—a handful of mega‑cap tech leaders—account for roughly one‑third of the S&P 500’s market value, and a number of them are already in steep downtrends. Investors heavily exposed to tech through ETFs or individual holdings like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) may be experiencing losses far larger than the overall index suggests.

Another important signal comes from the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKK), often used as a proxy for speculative technology stocks. That fund has already fallen about 28% from its October highs, suggesting risk appetite may be fading.

These internal cracks often appear before the broader market begins to decline.

3 Ways Investors Can Protect Their Portfolios

Rather than trying to predict exactly what will happen next, Chaikin emphasizes preparation. If markets move into a correction or bear phase, investors who plan ahead will be better positioned.

1. Raise Cash to a “Sleeping Level”

The first step is simple: raise cash.

Chaikin suggests holding enough cash so you can remain calm if markets decline sharply. For many portfolios, that means roughly 15% to 25% in cash.

The goal isn’t to exit the market completely but to create a cushion.

Cash serves two important purposes:

  • It reduces emotional pressure during declines.
  • It provides dry powder to take advantage of opportunities later.

Investors who stay fully invested during downturns often feel forced to sell at the worst possible moment.

2. Sell Weak Stocks First

If you need cash, a logical place to start is selling your weakest holdings.

Chaikin recommends trimming stocks that exhibit bearish characteristics in quantitative models such as the Chaikin Power Gauge, which evaluates companies on 20 fundamental and technical factors.

Stocks already showing bearish signals near market highs are often the most vulnerable during corrections, while stronger areas may remain resilient. Chaikin highlighted sectors currently demonstrating relative strength, including healthcareaerospace and defenseenergy, and infrastructure tied to data center expansion.

Rather than automatically buying the dip, investors may benefit from focusing on industry groups with strong momentum and fundamentals.

3. Watch Key Technical Levels

Technical indicators can provide early clues about the market’s direction.

One widely watched signal is the 200‑day moving average of the S&P 500. Many traders view it as a dividing line between longer‑term uptrends and downtrends. If the index holds above the 200‑day, pullbacks often stay contained; a decisive break below it can signal that selling pressure is widening and that a routine dip may be turning into something more serious.

Other gauges, such as the VIX volatility index, have already spiked in recent sessions. While volatility can create short‑term buying opportunities, sustained spikes often accompany periods of market stress.

Why the Best Opportunity May Come Later

Despite the cautious outlook, Chaikin remains optimistic.

Midterm years have often produced some of the best buying opportunities in the presidential cycle. Markets frequently bottom in late September or early October after months of volatility, then launch into powerful rallies. In some cases, gains following those lows have averaged more than 40% over the next 15 months.

That’s why preparation now can matter more than prediction.

Investors who maintain cash during volatile periods have the flexibility to act when prices reset. Those who stay fully invested through a sharp downturn may instead be forced to react at exactly the wrong moment.

For now, the market hasn’t entered bear territory—but several warning signs are emerging beneath the surface.

With historical patterns pointing to a weaker midterm year and geopolitical uncertainty adding to volatility, this may be a time to focus on strengthening portfolios rather than chasing short‑term moves.

If history repeats itself, the turbulence of 2026 may not just test investors’ patience—it could ultimately create one of the most attractive buying opportunities of the entire market cycle.

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Top 4 Stocks About to Reach Their 52-Week High

 FinStrategistStrategic financial insights, macroeconomic trends, and clear investment strategies for growth-oriented investors.Top 4 Stocks About to Reach Their 52-Week High – Ad

A 52-week high is a technical indicator used by some of the world’s top traders and investors to determine the current and future value of a stock. In this report we reveal today’s top 4 stocks about to reach their 52-week highs. 

Get The Stocks NowBy clicking the link above you will automatically opt-in to receive emails from FinStrategist and agree to Privacy PolicyUS job openings rise to a better-than-expected 7 million despite sluggish labor market

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. job openings rose to nearly 7 million in January, better than expected at a time when the American labor market has looked . Continue reading ➔FREE: Grade Any 3 Stocks Using Navellier’s Grading System – Ad

Louis Navellier’s grading system – wealthy firms who paid $24,000/year for him to analyze their stocks with – is now available for 3 FREE SEARCHES. See how YOUR stocks grade (A, B, C, D, or F) before you decide whether to buy or sell. [Get 3 Free Stock Searches →]Mojtaba Khamenei To Be Removed Before 2026 Ends? Here’s What Crypto Prediction Market Says About Iran’s New Supreme Leader

Mojtaba Khamenei may have been appointed Iran’s Supreme Leader only days ago, but cryptocurrency bettors are already wagering on how soon he might exit. Continue reading ➔Iran Facing Attack From A Third Country? Crypto Prediction Market Sees High Possibility Amid Rising Middle East Tensions

Cryptocurrency punters are increasing the odds that a country other than the U.S. and Israel will strike Iran amid rising fears that the regional conflict could spread to Gulf states where American troops are stationed. Continue reading ➔Ask a Pro: “What Expenses Can Be Deducted From Capital Gains Tax?” – Ad

Are you overlooking deductible expenses that could potentially help minimize capital gains tax? A tax-efficient wealth manager could help preserve more of what you’ve built. Try SmartAsset’s no-cost tool to find and compare vetted financial advisors who serve your area. Take matching quiz.The islands off Iran’s southern coast are key to its economy and security. What to know about them

JERUSALEM (AP) — Iran’s parliament speaker that attacks on the Persian Gulf islands that form Iran’s southern maritime frontier would provoke a new level of retaliation, underscoring how central they are to the country’s economy and security. Continue reading ➔Teen Turns His Old Nikes Into A $400,000 Hustle: Here’s How He Did It

Teen turns hobby into successful sneaker business, earning $400k in sales. Started by selling 5 pairs online, now has 2 storefronts and plans for expansion. Continue reading ➔AI Created by Fmr. Nuclear Missile Coder Issues Urgent Projection for Nvidia Holders – Ad

A former lieutenant colonel who worked on top secret tech for the military has now released an AI that can foresee U.S. stock prices up to 21 days in advance. What it says about Nvidia could soon affect the entire U.S. market. See this AI’s latest projection for free.Tonix Pharmaceuticals Says Prescriptions For Chronic Pain Drug Top 4,200 Since Launch

Tonix Pharmaceuticals beats expectations, and Tonmya prescriptions grow, with over 4,200 prescriptions since launch. Continue reading ➔Trump Ally, New DHS Leader Nominee Markwayne Mullin Makes New Stock Trades: Here’s What He Bought And Sold

Markwayne Mullin made several stock transaction in February 2026, before he was nominated to lead the Department of Homeland Security. Continue reading ➔REVEALED: Biggest AI Growth Story of 2026 – Ad

Futurist Eric Fry predicted that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) would arrive in 2026, years before most experts said it was possible. Now that this advanced form of AI is emerging from Silicon Valley, Eric says we need to brace for an entirely different phase of the AI boom. Continue reading ➔3 Stocks to Buy After the “Iran Shock”

Markets react emotionally to geopolitical shocks but history shows they usually recover. Long-term returns driven by earnings, liquidity, credit, inflation, and valuations. Don’t panic, stick to long-term strategy. Continue reading ➔Trinidad and Tobago extends state of emergency for 3 months over crime

PORT-OF-SPAIN, Trinidad (AP) — Trinidad and Tobago’s government has received House of Representatives approval to extend a state of emergency for three months, as the twin-island Caribbean nation struggles with a high level of crime. Continue reading ➔Where things stand after the US and Israeli strikes on Iran

The United States and Israel targeted Iran in coordinated attacks over the weekend that killed and dozens of other senior figures and kicked off a furious Iranian response that threatens a . Continue reading ➔Oscars 2026 Prediction Market Preview: Can Sinners Beat One Battle After Another?

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has record 16 noms for Sinners, but Polymarket odds favor One Battle After Another for Best Picture & Jordan for Best Actor. Continue reading ➔Trump Dismisses Reports Of Top General’s Iran War Concerns, Claims Conflict Would Be ‘Easily Won’

Trump rejects reports of military opposition to Iran conflict, asserts he makes decisions, cites past strikes, warns of severe outcomes if talks fail. Continue reading ➔Trump Adviser David Sacks Warns Iran Escalation Could Be ‘Catastrophic,’ Calls For US To ‘Declare Victory And Get Out’

Trump’s AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks warned that the U.S. strategy in Iran could lead to “catastrophic” outcomes. Continue reading ➔

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🔥 Today’s Report: RMD – ResMed

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STOCK OF THE DAY 
ResMed (NYSE:RMD)

ResMed

RMD 90-day price performance

CURRENT PRICE

$231.00-1.41 (-0.60%)(As of 03:59 PM ET)30 DAY PERFORMANCE-11.01%     90 DAY PERFORMANCE-8.32%     1 YEAR PERFORMANCE    +5.33%

MARKET CAPITALIZATION

$33.65B

P/E RATIO

22.85

DIVIDEND YIELD

1.04%

ABOUT RESMED

ResMed (NYSE: RMD) is a global medical device and cloud-connectivity company focused on improving outcomes for people with sleep-disordered breathing and chronic respiratory conditions. Founded in 1989, the company is headquartered in San Diego, California, and develops, manufactures and distributes a range of devices and software used by patients, clinicians and providers worldwide. ResMed’s product portfolio centers on noninvasive ventilation and sleep therapy equipment, including continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) and bilevel devices, masks and related accessories for the treatment… Read Full Profile ▷

RMD COMPANY CALENDAR

NOV 13, 2025Ex-Dividend for 12/18 DividendDEC 18, 2025Dividend PayableJAN 29, 2026Last EarningsFEB 12, 2026Ex-Dividend for 3/19 DividendMAR 13, 2026TodayMAR 19, 2026Dividend PayableAPR 22, 2026Next Earnings (Estimated)JUN 30, 2026Fiscal Year End

RECENT RESMED NEWS

FRI. MARCH 13, 2026 2:41 PM EST | BENZINGA.COM
Here’s How Much You Would Have Made Owning ResMed Stock In The Last 10 YearsFRI. MARCH 13, 2026 10:40 AM EST | MARKETBEAT.COM
Landscape Capital Management L.L.C. Boosts Stake in ResMed Inc. $RMDFRI. MARCH 13, 2026 6:05 AM EST | MARKETBEAT.COM
Mackenzie Financial Corp Trims Stock Position in ResMed Inc. $RMDFRI. MARCH 13, 2026 5:53 AM EST | MARKETBEAT.COM
Russell Investments Group Ltd. Has $30.85 Million Position in ResMed Inc. $RMDFRI. MARCH 13, 2026 3:26 AM EST | MARKETBEAT.COM
Bank of Montreal Can Sells 128,166 Shares of ResMed Inc. $RMD

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Is the Warner Bros. Saga Near Its End? Insiders Sell +$200M in Shares

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3 Rebound Candidates With Technical Tailwinds

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Volatile markets can be stomach-churning, but they also create opportunities for risk seekers. These three stocks show rebound potential for technical traders.Read The Full Story ▷ 

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Early The Safest Investment Right Now? (It’s NOT Gold)

Weiss expert Chris Graebe just revealed a unique gold-related investment that offers much higher upside than gold itself without the downside price risk—private, pre-IPO shares insulated from daily market volatility in a company that has pioneered a new way to extract and process gold 10 times faster and up to 70 times cheaper than a traditional miner without owning or operating a single mine. This is a rare chance to invest in the Alpha Round of funding, one of the earliest and most rewarding pre-IPO funding rounds, with examples of Alpha Round deals that delivered returns as high as 552,332%, enough to grow a $1,000 stake into $5.5 million.Watch the Private Investment Summit for all the facts now ▷ 

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Insurance stocks like Chubb, Progressive, and Arch Capital are attracting investors as steady premiums and rising investment income help stabilize portfolios.Read The Full Story ▷ 

Despite Global Tensions, HSBC’s Asia Strategy Is Paying Off

Despite Global Tensions, HSBC’s Asia Strategy Is Paying Off

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Trump Planning to Use Public Law 63-43: Prepare Now  (Ad)

Trump Planning to Use Public Law 63-43: Prepare Now

A little-known U.S. law is back in focus as analysts examine how existing presidential authorities could influence markets in 2026 and beyond.

In a new briefing, a former government advisor explains the historical context behind this statute, why it’s being discussed again, and how certain policy actions could reshape capital flows during America’s upcoming 250th anniversary period. The presentation focuses on preparedness, macro implications, and what investors may want to understand as events develop.See the full briefing here ▷ 

Dollar General Holds Its Ground at Critical Level, Signals Buy

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Dollar General is positioned to outperform its guidance and drive a bullish upgrade cycle, but it won’t start until later in 2026. Read The Full Story ▷ 

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Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, Pressures Key Sector Funds

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Trump’s family just applied for a bank license (From Crypto 101 Media)


3 ETFs to Avoid as Oil Shock Hits Markets

Written by Dan Schmidt on March 12, 2026 

Oil barrels leaking in warehouse with downward price chart overlay.

Key Points

  • Oil-price volatility is pressuring energy-sensitive areas like consumer discretionary, airlines, and European equities.
  • Three widely traded ETFs tied to those exposures are showing weakening technicals as the conflict drags on.
  • In the near term, investors may want to reduce exposure to the most fuel- and sentiment-sensitive pockets of the market.
  • Special ReportCan you keep this weekend income secret between us? (From DTI Trader)

A new energy shock has struck global markets as the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran enters its second week. Oil prices briefly shot over $115 per barrel in the overnight session on Sunday, March 8, before settling back under $90 by Monday evening. Still, oil prices have jumped more than 30% in the last month, and gas prices are quickly approaching a $4 average in the U.S. Energy disruptions have a global impact, but not every country or sector is affected equally. A few market areas could feel more pressure than others, and the funds covering them are ones investors might want to sidestep while the conflict plays out.

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Sectors and Asset Classes Hit Hardest By Oil Shocks

When an energy shock like an oil crisis hits, there’s a typical playbook that investors turn to seeking to offset risk. The oil and gas sector has obvious tailwinds from prices nearing $100/bbl, and consumer staples tend to hold up well when people start noticing higher prices at the pump. But three sectors that are frequently punished harder than the rest include:

  • Consumer Discretionary – This sector is among the first to notice the squeeze because an oil shock is a very ‘in your face’ signal. Anyone who commutes or drives regularly feels an immediate impact as gasoline becomes increasingly expensive in a short period. Every extra dollar spent filling a gas tank is one less spent shopping online, ordering takeout, or supplying a home improvement project. Even consumers who don’t drive notice sticker shock as gas prices are visible at every intersection and convenience store, with knock-on effects on economic sentiment. Additionally, companies in the consumer discretionary industry face many input costs influenced by fuel prices, such as shipping and warehousing. If these costs increase rapidly, companies selling discretionary goods will face yet another margin headwind that can’t be fully passed on to customers.
  • Airlines – Fuel costs are a significant burden, accounting for up to 35% of operating expenses. Oil shocks put the airline industry in a tight spot because fuel prices can rise overnight, while fares and route schedules are locked months in advance and can’t be adjusted quickly to offset the increase. Airlines also face a trickle-down effect from consumer sentiment; if potential travelers feel a pinch in the wallet, they’ll likely eschew destination trips for cheaper routes (or skip the vacation altogether).
  • European Equities – This scenario played out back in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and sent oil prices over $100/bbl in rapid fashion. We discussed Europe’s struggles to absorb oil shocks when the fighting began because it’s so dependent on energy imports and has limited domestic capacity to meet demand. Policy and geology both play a role here, but until Europe reaches a higher level of decarbonization, it will continue to feel an outsized impact from geopolitical decision-making beyond its borders.

Consider Selling These 3 ETFs as Oil Prices Go Crazy

One of the great things about ETFs is that you can find a fund for any nook and cranny of the market, and the three sectors mentioned above have plenty of liquid options. Here are three funds to consider lightening up on while the war continues in Iran.

Consumer Discretionary ETF XLY Faces Mounting Pressure

The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLY)is the largest ETF covering the sector by a substantial margin, boasting more than $22 billion in assets under management (AUM) and a tiny 0.03% expense ratio.

But in the current environment, its liquidity makes it an easy fund to sell, and its biggest holdings like Amazon Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) will suffer if consumers begin putting off big-ticket spending due to rising energy costs.

The ETF has collapsed over the last few weeks, taking out the 50-day and 200-day moving averages as it erases four months’ worth of gains. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirms the bearish momentum, and is now consolidating with prices hovering below the 200-day. If the war proves lengthy, this consolidation could lead to more selling and new lows on XLY.

XLY consumer discretionary ETF chart shows 200-day SMA break as MACD consolidates, signaling caution.

The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF Loses Momentum as European Stocks Pull Back

The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSEARCA: VGK) is a $30 billion fund that holds some of Europe’s most prominent public companies like Roche Holding (OTCMKTS: RHHBY)Novartis (NYSE: NVS)SAP (NYSE: SAP), and LVMH-Moet Hennessy (OTCMKTS: LVMUY).

But its holdings are also concentrated in some of the most energy-sensitive countries in Europe, like Germany, France, and the U.K. European stocks have outperformed their U.S. peers over the last two years, but VGK is down more than 5% this month, and its year-to-date (YTD) gain has dwindled to just 1%. 

VGK recently took out long-term support at the 50-day moving average, and the next crucial level to watch is the 200-day moving average. The MACD illustrates the speed and ferocity of the drawdown, and sellers are firmly in control of momentum now. If shares can’t hold the 200-day moving average, the downward pressure will only intensify.

Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) chart shows break below 50-day SMA support as MACD turns bearish.

The U.S. Global Jets ETF Is Vulnerable in a Risk-Off Market

The U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSEARCA: JETS) faces several headwinds from the current situation. It’s a smaller, more expensive fund that investors likely don’t consider a core holding and will be quick to dump.

In addition to holding all the major U.S. airline stocks, JETS also holds travel stocks like Expedia Group (NASDAQ: EXPE) and TripAdvisor Inc. (NASDAQ: TRIP) that are affected by disrupted travel routes and consumer spending pullbacks.

JETS is down more than 15% in the last month, and the bearish momentum isn’t showing any signs of dissipating. The stock took out the 200-day moving average during the decline, the first time since last August the fund had breached this level. The MACD is also showing more bearish signals than it has since the Liberation Day tariff debacle last April, hinting that the bottom isn’t in yet.

U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) chart shows 200-day SMA support break and bearish MACD cross, signaling weakness.

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