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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for March 11th
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A windowless office at CIA headquarters. A 50-year career. One urgent warning. (From The Oxford Club)
Evolv Technologies Just Sent a Strong Signal on AI Security Demand
Written by Chris Markoch
Evolv Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: EVLV) is a leader in AI weapons/gun/concealed weapon detection. The company delivered its fourth-quarter earnings report after the market closed on March 10. The results were solid, starting with a double beat on the top and bottom lines.
Revenue for the quarter came in at $38.50 million, topping the forecast of $36.44 million by 5.65%. The bigger story, however, was the company’s bottom line. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 6 cents, well ahead of expectations for a loss of 8 cents per share.
Investors seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach. EVLV stock was up modestly in the session following the report, recovering from a loss of more than 2% at the open. It’s not unusual for a stock that trades near $5 per share to see significant volatility in either direction. That’s been the case for EVLV stock, which is up more than 60% in the past 12 months but was down over 25% in 2026 heading into earnings.
At a time when many technology stocks, particularly those related to AI, are getting battered, it’s important to understand what Evolv does and why AI isn’t just an add-on service; it’s an integral part of the business case.
How Evolv Uses AI to Modernize Security Screening
The keyword to understanding Evolv’s approach is frictionless. Evolv builds AI-powered weapons-detection systems that let people walk through security checkpoints without stopping to empty their pockets or bags. This replaces the old metal-detector experience with fast, frictionless entry at places like schools, stadiums, hospitals, and theme parks.
Its systems combine advanced sensors with AI to analyze the signatures of guns, knives, and other weapons as people move through, then highlight potential threats, showing security personnel exactly where to check instead of triggering a generic alarm.
Evolv differentiates itself by focusing on speed, letting crowds flow at much higher throughput than traditional checkpoints while using AI pattern recognition to distinguish likely weapons from everyday items, which is designed to cut false alarms and add context, including some non-metal threats and richer situational awareness.
Strong Revenue Growth and Recurring Revenue Momentum
The proof is in the company’s growth. Quarterly revenue was up 32% year-over-year (YOY). This growth was driven by new customers and the expansion of deployments across its existing customer base.
That growth is also reflected in the company’s annual recurring revenue (ARR), which came in at $120.5 million in the quarter, an increase of 21% YOY.
Evolv also raised its 2026 full-year guidance. The company is forecasting total revenue in the range of $172 million to $178 million, which would be YOY growth of around 20% at the mid-point. Of that revenue, Evolv forecasts $145 million to $150 million in ARR, representing YOY growth of around 22.5% at the midpoint.
One driver of that growth is the company’s two-pronged business model. Customers can choose a pure subscription model or a purchase-subscription model. The pure subscription model keeps customers from buying the hardware outright; instead, they pay an all-in recurring fee that bundles the equipment, software, updates, service, and maintenance into one contract.
In the purchase-subscription model, customers still pay recurring software and service fees, but the commercial structure can separate or front-load more of the hardware cost, making the subscription portion relatively lower and more software-like.
In 2026, Evolv expects approximately 50% of its new unit deployments to be under the pure subscription model, with the remaining 50% deployed through its purchase-subscription model.
EVLV Stock Is a Speculative Play That Could Still Work Out
Investors should have absolute clarity about what they own with EVLV stock. Revenue is growing, but can be lumpy. Evolv delivered profitable earnings this quarter and expects to have its first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA, with margins in the high single digits. But the company will have to prove it can be consistently profitable for the stock to gain traction.
Adding to the headwinds is the competitive landscape. It’s fair to question the company’s moat. There are several companies competing in the AI-enabled weapons-detection and security-screening sector.
However, the need for the company’s products and services is, sadly, increasing. Evolv generated $145.90 million in revenue for all of 2025. The total addressable market for the company is forecast to be between $2 billion and $3 billion by 2030, depending on how the AI weapons/gun/concealed weapon detection area is defined by scope and methodology.
That leaves enough room for multiple names, and much of Evolv’s revenue comes from ARR, which is contracted over long periods.
Put it all together, and this is a speculative stock that is valued correctly at this time. Investors should be aware of the risks, but risk-tolerant investors may have a long-term opportunity. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Rivian Is About to Challenge Tesla Where It Hurts Most
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson
A distinct chill has settled over the electric vehicle (EV) market. After years of supercharged, triple-digit expansion, the industry is navigating a period of slowing sales growth and heightened investor caution. This EV Winter has seen automakers recalibrate ambitious production targets and engage in aggressive price wars to spur demand.
Yet, amidst this cooling sentiment, a compelling counter-current is forming around Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN). The electric adventure vehicle maker is attracting a wave of positive attention from Wall Street analysts, signaling a potential decoupling from broader industry trends. The source of this renewed optimism is clear and singular: the imminent launch of the R2 platform, a vehicle poised to move Rivian from a niche player into the mass market, creating a powerful narrative for investors seeking the next phase of EV growth.
The Rivian R2 Could Be a Defining Moment for Rivian Automotive
The growing confidence in Rivian’s trajectory was put into sharp focus on March 10, 2026, when TD Cowen upgraded the stock to Buy and raised its price target to $20. This move is part of a broader, more favorable trend, with firms like Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB)and UBS (NYSE: UBS) also recently issuing positive revisions. For investors, these upgrades are significant signals. They indicate that, after scrutinizing the data, financial experts see a clear path to future growth that may not yet be fully reflected in the stock’s price.
The conviction behind these calls is rooted in the strategic importance of the R2 platform. The new midsize SUV is designed to enter the heart of the consumer market with a more accessible starting price point of around $45,000, creating a direct and fresh competitor to best-selling vehicles like the Tesla Model Y. Analysts see this launch as Rivian’s Model 3 moment—a direct parallel to the vehicle that transformed Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) from a luxury automaker into a global powerhouse.
Before the Model 3, Tesla was a high-risk, unprofitable company selling a small number of expensive cars. The Model 3’s successful production ramp proved Tesla could scale, generate billions in revenue, and achieve sustained profitability, an inflection point that forever changed its valuation.
Wall Street is now betting that the R2 can serve the same purpose for Rivian. A successful launch would not only add a new revenue stream but also fundamentally expand Rivian’s total addressable market and serve as a powerful near-term catalyst for growth.
Product Cycle Divergence: New Metal vs. Next-Gen Tech
Part of the growing bullishness for Rivian stems from a clear divergence in strategy and timelines when compared to the current market leader, Tesla. The R2 is a new physical vehicle launching into a high-demand segment, with customer deliveries expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026. This provides a clear, measurable driver for revenue growth in the immediate future and injects new excitement into a market hungry for compelling alternatives.
Tesla’s narrative, in contrast, is increasingly focused on the long term. Its globally dominant Model 3 and Model Y lineup, while immensely successful, is now several years into its lifecycle and facing intensifying competition. Tesla’s dialogue with investors is more focused on future-facing, harder-to-value projects, such as achieving full self-driving, developing the Optimus robot, and harnessing artificial intelligence(AI). While these endeavors hold massive potential, their path to generating significant revenue is measured in years, not quarters. This difference in focus creates a strategic opening. For investors seeking near-term growth tied directly to vehicle manufacturing and sales, Rivian’s focused product cycle presents a compelling alternative, forming the basis for a potential anti-Tesla trade.
How Rivian Plans to Win
The most significant question for any growth company is its path to profitability, and here, Rivian is providing tangible evidence of progress. While Rivian posted a net loss in 2025, a deeper look into its financial resultsreveals a crucial turning point: for the first time, Rivian achieved a full year of positive consolidated gross profit, an improvement of more than $1.3 billion over the prior year. This is the direct result of Rivian’s disciplined execution. Rivian reported an impressive year-over-year improvement of approximately $9,500 in its automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle, demonstrating its ability to streamline manufacturing and manage its supply chain effectively.
This financial foundation is being strengthened by a multi-pronged strategy. The high-volume R2 platform is specifically designed to leverage economies of scale, a classic manufacturing principle where costs per unit decrease as production volume increases.
Rivian is also building a diversified and high-margin revenue stream through its software and services segment. Its joint venture with the Volkswagen Group (OTCMKTS: VWAGY) is already contributing significantly, generating $447 million in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025 alone and providing a stable source of income that is not solely dependent on vehicle sales.
The inherent value of Rivian’s technology was recently highlighted when Mind Robotics, a company spinout utilizing its AI and robotics IP, raised $500 million at a $2 billion valuation. These data points show that Rivian is not just a company with an exciting product, but one that is actively building a financially sustainable business model.
The R2 Reveal: Rivian’s Moment of Truth
The renewed analyst conviction in Rivian is not based solely on speculation; it is rooted in measurable improvements in cost control and the strategic launch of a potentially category-defining product. The R2 launch positions Rivian as a compelling, product-led growth story at a time when the market leader’s attention is increasingly directed toward longer-term technological ambitions.
The upcoming R2 reveal is more than just a vehicle launch; it’s a critical data point for investors. The market’s reception, coupled with Rivian’s ability to execute its production ramp, will likely determine if this wave of bullish sentiment can propel Rivian into the next tier of global automakers. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
A windowless office at CIA headquarters. A 50-year career. One urgent warning. (Ad)
U.S. Investors Racing to Tap Massive U.S. Government Silver Hoard
Between 1932 and 1964, the government acquired thousands of tons of silver. 90% pure. Certified by the U.S. Treasury.
Today, this hoard has shrunk by 75%… as Americans have raced to secure their share. The crazy thing about this hoard is, you can tap into it and acquire real, hold-in-your-hand silver for as little as $6.
One former CIA analyst just exposed the whole thing – including how to get his research, how to acquire government silver and what to ask for. SEE HIS FULL REPORT HERE.
3 ETFs That Could Benefit as Consumers Tighten Their Budgets
Written by Jennifer Ryan Woods
U.S. consumer spending has remained resilient, but there is a growing divide in who is spending and what they’re spending on. In what many economists describe as a K-shaped economy, higher-income households have continued to prosper, allowing them to spend freely, while lower-income consumers have scaled back as elevated prices, lagging incomes, and rising debt have taken a toll. As many households look to trim expenses, shoppers are increasingly turning to discount chains and warehouse clubs to get more bang for their buck.
Over the past year, retailers such as TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST), Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG), and Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE: BURL) have benefited from this shift, and there may be further upside ahead. Many analysts remain bullish on these retailers, and if gas prices rise sharply due to the escalating conflict with Iran, it could further increase consumers’ need to seek out bargains.
For investors looking to benefit from the shift toward a more price-conscious economy, three ETFs that provide exposure to value-oriented companies can be an effective way to participate in the trend.
XLY Offers Broad Consumer Exposure Plus Key Value Retailers
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLY)provides exposure to retailers benefiting from shifting consumer spending while still capturing the broader consumer discretionary sector. The portfolio’s fifth-largest holding is TJX, the company behind discount darlings TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods.
The 4% holding of TJX provides XLY investors with a meaningful way to gain exposure to the discount retail trend. TJX has risen more than 30% over the last year, and analysts remain overwhelmingly positive. XLY also has a 1.5% weight in discount retailer Ross Stores, which has surged more than 50% over the last year and is up 15% year-to-date, with analysts maintaining a bullish outlook.
It’s important to note that XLY is not a pure discount retailer play. The fund is concentrated in a handful of consumer discretionary stocks across several industries.
The two largest holdings, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), together account for roughly 40% of the portfolio.
XLY has a net expense ratio of just 0.03%, which is lower than the average 0.58% for consumer discretionary ETFs. This highly liquid ETF is currently trading around $115 per share, up more than 15% over the last year, though it’s down nearly 4% year-to-date.
XRT Provides Diversified Exposure Across the Retail Sector
Investors seeking more targeted, less top-heavy retail exposure may prefer SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT). XRT provides broad exposure across the retail sector and is equally weighted, allowing mid-sized companies to have a greater impact on performance. The top 25 holdings each account for roughly 1.5% to 1.8% of the portfolio.
XRT holds a number of warehouse clubs, including PriceSmart Inc. (NASDAQ: PSMT), BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ), and Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST).
It also holds several discount retailers, such as Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG), Burlington Stores Inc. (NYSE: BURL), and Five Below Inc. (NASDAQ: FIVE). This ETF is highly liquid and has a net expense ratio of 0.35%, which is higher than XLY but still below the sector average. Over the last year, XRT has had a strong run, rising more than 15%.
However, it has slipped roughly 2% year to date and is currently trading around $83.
RTH Targets Retail Industry Leaders
For those interested in an ETF focused solely on retail, the VanEck Retail ETF (NASDAQ: RTH) may be a good option. RTH holds 25 large U.S. retail companies, many of which perform well when consumers become more price sensitive.
Some of the value-focused holdings include Costco, TJX, Ross Stores, and Dollar General. It’s worth noting that the fund’s two largest holdings, Amazon and Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT), account for nearly 30% of the fund, giving investors significant exposure to these dominant retailers that often gain market share as consumers become more budget-conscious.
RTH’s targeted exposure to many of the sector’s largest and most influential companies has worked in its favor, as it has performed the best in the bunch recently.
The ETF is up nearly 17% over the last year and about 3% year-to-date. It is currently trading around $260 per share. The ETF’s net expense ratio of 0.35% is on par with XRT, though it’s below the sector average. RTH is much less liquid than either XLY or XRT, trading around 5,500 shares per day. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Billionaire’s Playbook 💵
Market Signal | Market Alert from Jon Najarian -Pro Trader, CNBC Contributor
Dear Reader,
Ray Dalio went public last year warning that America faced an economic “death spiral.”
His words. Not mine.
The same quarter he said it, he was loading up on Nvidia, Google, and Alphabet at massive discounts while everyday investors were panic selling.
I’ve seen this playbook run dozens of times over 16 years on financial television….
The billionaires get on air…they scare you out of your positions… then they buy them from you at the bottom.
My friend Marc Chaikin built the only tool I know of that lets ordinary investors track exactly what these people are actually doing with their money, in real time, across 5,000 stocks daily.
Right now, it’s showing something significant.
We filmed a briefing explaining everything. Including one complimentary stock pick.
Regards,
Jon Najarian
40-Year Pro Trader | 16-Year CNBC Contributor
Author, “Follow the Smart Money” & “Its Not an Option”
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🌴 March in Cabo: New Listings, Price Drops & Market Updates
✨ March Newest Listings | Spring Momentum Starts Now
🌸 Spring is around the corner, and historically this is the most active
time in real estate.
From January through May, the best listings tend to sell quickly.
🏡 The first properties to go are usually the ones priced correctly for
the market, not the cheapest, but those aligned with true market value.
Well-informed buyers recognize that immediately.
⏳ If you’ve been watching a great listing for a couple of months, there’s
a good chance it won’t last much longer as the season picks up.
🚀 This is the moment to make a move. Once the market gains momentum, the waiting game has never favored buyers.
NEWEST LISTINGS
MAREA LOS CABOS | 504
Furnished 2-bed, 2-bath condo in the heart of Cabo San Lucas. 🌴 Modern open layout with quality finishes and natural light, ideal for living, vacationing, or rental income.
Just minutes from the Marina, restaurants, shops, and walking distance to Medano Beach. 🏖️View listing
HACIENDA BEACH | 5301
Located in Hacienda Beach Club Residences, Unit 5301 is a 1-bed, 1-bathcondo with a bright layout and city views. 🌴 Enjoy direct beach access, resort-style amenities, top security, and a prime location just steps from the Cabo San Lucas Marina, dining, and downtown. Ideal for Cabo living.View listing
MAREA LOS CABOS| PH 601
Penthouse with a private rooftop and spa jacuzzi, perfect for enjoying Cabo’s sunset skies. 🌅 This 2-bed, 2-bath fully furnished condo sits in the heart of Cabo San Lucas, just a few blocks from Medano Beach. Residents enjoy a gym, pool, picnic area, fire pit, and
24-hour security. View listing
COPALA | 6103
2 bed 2 bath Pentgarden home with ocean views in Quivira Los Cabos. 🌊 Open layout, high ceilings, and a terrace with pergola and private splash pool. Strong short-term rental history, golf cart included, plus owner access to Quivira Beach Club and preferred pricing at Pueblo Bonito amenities.View listing
PRICE REDUCTIONS IN CABO SAN LUCAS
QUIVIRA GOLF COMMUNITY
ALVAR PH | 1602
4-bed, 4.5-bath penthouse with stunning ocean views in Alvar at Quivira. 🌊 Vaulted ceilings, designer furnishings, Viking appliances, and a large terrace for seamless indoor-outdoor living. Owners enjoy full access to Quivira Endless Amenities.View listing
PEDREGAL CABO SAN LUCAS
CASCADAS | 904
3-bed condo in Cascadas del Pedregalwith a rare private pool. 🌴 End unit with ocean views, large outdoor entertaining area, and upgraded kitchen appliances. Enjoy Pedregal amenities plus a 2-car garage and extra parking.
5 min drive to Beach & Marina.View listing
PRICE REDUCTIONS IN SAN JOSE DEL CABO
EL TULE SAN JOSE CORRIDOR
VISTAMAR | 2502
3-bed penthouse in Vistamar El Tulewith ocean and desert views. 🌅 Features a spacious open layout and a private rooftop with plunge pool, outdoor kitchen, and lounge areas. Fully furnished, never rented, with pool, parking, and 24/7 security.View listing
SAN JOSE DEL CABO
CLUB LA COSTA PH | V6 303
Updated 2-bed, 2-bath top-floor duplex in Club La Costa. 🌴 Fully furnished with two terraces, garage, new appliances, and mini-splits. Enjoy resort-style amenities including 3 pools, jacuzzis and lush grounds. Walking to the beach, restaurants, and shops.View listing
NEWS & UPDATES
San Jose Underpass Update
The Fonatur Underpass is finally taking shape in San José del Cabo. 🚧 Take a quick flyover of the progress in our latest update and discover which nearby communities stand to benefit the most from this major upgrade.
Is Cabo Safe?
A closer look at safety, Cabo’s distance from mainland events, and the resilience of the real estate market.
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El precio de la propiedad está expresado en dólares estadounidenses (USD), de conformidad con el Artículo 8 de la Ley Monetaria vigente. El valor final al momento del cierre se convertirá a pesos mexicanos (MXN) al tipo de cambio publicado en el Diario Oficial de la Federación en la fecha de firma ante Notario Público, en cumplimiento con la NOM-247-SE-2021emitida por la PROFECO. Los precios mostrados en pesos mexicanos son únicamente informativos y resultan de una conversión aritmética simple.
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Last Week’s Chaos Triggered Two Big Trade Signals
Last Week’s Chaos Triggered Two Big Trade Signals
BY LUCAS DOWNEY, EDITOR, TRADESMITH’S ALPHA SIGNALS
In retrospect, investors had it pretty good in 2025.
Sure, there was the Liberation Day crash in April… and a violent snap-back right after.
And there was plenty of volatility, bumps, and bruises along the way.
Remember Nvidia crashing on news of DeepSeek, a cheaper and more efficient AI model made in China?
Or the surge in international stocks?
Or the hemming and hawing about the Fed’s rate cuts?
But at the end of the year, stocks of nearly all shapes and sizes gained.
The S&P 500 was up 18% in 2025… and the small-cap Russell 2000 put up gains of nearly 13%.
Precious metals like gold and silver put up an even bigger winning year, rising 64% and 146%, respectively.
Then came 2026.
So far, we’ve dealt with a software stock crash… as AI cannibalization fears gripped investors. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is down more than 16% so far this year.
But that was just the tip of the iceberg for what was ahead.
Fast-forward to today, and traders are facing not one but two ultra-rare events.
First, crude oil has spiked to levels not seen in over three years in the wake of a U.S. conflict with Iran.
Second, the market fear gauge, CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), just surged to levels last seen in April 2025 coming out of Liberation Day.
No doubt, uncertainty is high right now.
But before you decide to sell it all, just review the facts and the evidence.
History suggests double-digit gains are coming for stocks in a matter of months.
Today, I’ll show you how to prepare for it with one top-ranked AI juggernaut.
Crude Oil Surge Whipsaws Stocks
The big news of the week is the violent surge in energy prices.
The U.S. and Israel attack on Iran has threatened transit disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.
This is a huge deal, as estimates peg the daily oil volume passing through this waterway at 20 million barrels or more. That represents nearly 30% of all seaborne crude supply.
Anytime there’s a drastic cut to oil supply, prices rocket. WTI crude oil futures soared over $100 per barrel.
By using the tracking ETF, the U.S. Oil Fund (USO), we can see how the ETF surged 36.4% in six trading sessions ending March 6:
That’s a heck of a rally. In fact, in nearly 20 years of trading history, a USO 6-day surge of 20%+ has only occurred just 14 times prior to 2026:
- Twice in 2009
- Another two times in 2015
- Eight times during the COVID-19 crash and rebound
- And twice in the high-inflation period of 2022
If you’re thinking now’s the time to put the big bear suit on – think again. History has proven this to be a great opportunity to buy stocks.
Here at TradeSmith, one big focus this year is isolating rare trading conditions like these… and then looking at what happened when we saw them in the past.
Often, these signals can produce powerful trade setups.
Today’s are no exception…
In the past, when USO jumped 20%+ over 6 trading sessions, the S&P 500:
- Gained 6.7% on average a month later
- 12.5% three months later
- 16% six months later
- 33.6% 12 months after
- 44.5% 24 months later
And look at the hit rate along the bottom of the chart. Stocks were higher 92% of the time over the next month… 83% of the time over the next 12 months… and 100% of the time over the next two years.
That means buying stocks now seems like a solid move whether you’re looking at the short- or long-term.
Let’s keep going… because another rare signal is unfolding.
The VIX Pops to Nearly 29 as Stocks Fall
I’ve written extensively on why you want to buy stocks when volatility rips.
Back in April when talking heads told you to sell everything, I noted how the bear-killer signal flashed anew.
That signal is prime evidence of why you want to buy with both hands when the VIX rises and falls rapidly.
Today we see another unique and rare opportunity.
On Friday, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) soared to 29.49… the highest level since April of 2025, coming out of the Liberation Day crash.
Going back to 2015, there’ve been 184 instances when the VIX closed above 29.
Memorable market moments causing this wicked volatility ramp include:
- Late 2018 during rate hikes
- The COVID-19 crash of 2020
- The high-inflation bear market of 2022
- And 2025’s Liberation Day crash
Here’s what happened afterwards. Since 2015, when the VIX closed above 29, the S&P 500:
- Jumped 9.7% on average three months later
- 14.8% six months later
- 26.8% 12 months later
- 39.4% 24 months later
Notably, in all timeframes, stocks were higher over at least 83% of the time:
The evidence clearly points to a buying opportunity. Here’s a great pick to play the liftoff.
A Top-Tier AI Chipmaker
With market winds at our back, we should lean into leading companies.
This bodes well for leading semiconductor juggernaut, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).
TSM is the world’s largest semiconductor foundry. It manufactures high-performance chips for the largest companies in the world, including Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Back in November, I highlighted this name as a bullish setup. I’m going to reiterate that stance today.
Over the past year, the stock has doubled, easily outpacing the S&P 500 (SPY):
With gains like this, the company must be firing on all cylinders… and they are:
- 2025 revenues leapt to $122.2 billion from $90.1 billion a year prior.
- 2026 sales are set to surge to $158 billion.
- Most impressive is the profit picture. In 2025, net income soared to $55.1 billion from $36.5B in 2024. 2026 estimates peg net income to rise to $74.2 billion.
When business is booming, odds are the stock will follow.
My favorite TradeSmith indicator, the Quantum Score, seals the deal for me. It’s an instant snapshot of the overall technical and fundamental health of a company.
Readings of 80+ are in the buy zone.
TSM clocks in with Quantum Score of 80.4, made up of a 91.4% fundamental grade and 72.7% technical grade.
It’s clear to see this all-star stock is only being penalized technically… and a lot of that has to do with overall market weakness.
From my vantage, this is exactly the type of buy-the-dip opportunity, given all of the market uncertainty:
Look, there’s no guarantee what’ll happen in the future.
Fortunately, studying the past offers clues.
Don’t get sucked into the media-driven bear bait.
Rising oil prices and spiking volatility is a reason to invest… not panic.
TradeSmith software is geared to cut through the noise, offering signals you won’t find anywhere else.
Regards,
Lucas Downey
Editor, TradeSmith’s Alpha Signals
P.S. The two signals I walked you through today are exactly the kind of rare market conditions our tools are built to catch.
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The Market’s Next Problem
Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999
The war in Iran continues… The market doesn’t expect it to end soon… The promise of more oil was not enough… Rates might not go lower anymore… Oracle has gotten the message… Buyer beware…
Updates from the Middle East keep coming fast…
We went to bed reading about Iranian drone attacks continuing, with reported strikes on three tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and at Dubai’s airport… Then we woke up to news about Iran threatening to “target economic centers and banks” linked to the U.S. and Israel.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump gave another interview today, saying the war would end “soon” because there was “practically nothing left to target.”
He’s talking about the military infrastructure, most likely.
But, clearly, with Iranian attacks ongoing across the Persian Gulf, it now looks like a regional war is underway… And nobody seems sure what Iranian leadership will look like tomorrow or weeks from now.
As we wrote just earlier this week, the market is showing some “less bad” signs. But the markets remain volatile. And for yet another day, it didn’t look like investors expected things to settle down anytime soon.
The promise of more oil was not enough…
When it comes to market impact, it’s all about oil (and gas)… Roughly a quarter of the world’s typical seaborne oil supply has stopped. Energy production has stopped in many cases, too, including at Qatar’s key natural gas facility.
This morning brought some relief from the International Energy Agency (“IEA”), which coordinates oil reserve policy among 32 nations, including the U.S. The IEA announced plans for the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, which is about a third of all the members’ emergency stockpiles.
That may sound like a lot. But before the war, that much oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz every three weeks… And we’re more than a week into the conflict already.
Also, details about the IEA’s plan are hazy.
Its announcement said that “the emergency stocks will be made available to the market over a timeframe that is appropriate to the national circumstances of each Member country and will be supplemented by additional emergency measures by some countries.”
Sounds to an objective observer like “everyone for themselves.” In any case, the news didn’t ease market concerns and arguably heightened them. Oil prices are actually higher over the past day, by about 5% for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude.
As we go to press, they trade at around $88 and $92 per barrel, respectively. The major U.S. stock indexes were little changed to slightly lower… with the energy sector of the S&P 500 the lone significant gainer, up 2.5%.
At least inflation hasn’t been a surprise (yet)…
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the consumer price index (“CPI”) rose 0.3% in February from the prior month and 2.4% year over year. On a core basis, stripping out energy and fuel prices, the CPI rose 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year.
All four of those readings were in line with what Wall Street expected. At a 2.4% headline increase, February’s reading matches January’s for the lowest reading since last May.
So, on first glance, the inflation data was exactly what the market would want. Lower inflation would bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, as investors have been craving. But today, stocks remained lower anyway…
A big reason is that while February’s inflation reading appeared fine, it also marks a baseline for a likely worse-off report next month. And investors are already looking ahead to what may come next.
The recent surge in oil prices means more inflation…
In February, the CPI’s energy component rose 0.6% from the prior month and 0.5% from February 2025. That’s already about a 6% annualized pace. And next month, higher energy costs will show up in CPI numbers even more.
With West Texas Intermediate crude prices around $88 per barrel today, oil is up more than 15% from the end of March last year. And gasoline, which fell 5.6% year over year in February, is up more than 16% from a year ago, according to AAA.
Already, the Cleveland Fed – which runs an inflation “nowcast” – projects the CPI will climb back up to near 2.9% year over year for March’s reading.
And if the tensions with Iran send oil prices back to $100 per barrel in the next couple weeks, energy prices could drive inflation higher… which wouldn’t be good news for the broader economy.
One estimate from Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok is that $100 oil would boost headline inflation by 0.7 percentage points. That would put it closer to 4% than 3%, to say nothing of the Fed’s supposed 2% target.
That puts the Fed in a tough spot…
For months, we’ve been sounding alarm bells about stagflation – high inflation and high unemployment. The Fed’s typical solutions to these problems would contradict each other…
To combat rising unemployment, the Fed would typically lower rates. And as we’ve seen in the past couple of years, the Fed has raised rates with the intention of bringing inflation lower.
But right now, the Fed is worried about both higher inflation and higher unemployment. It has been in “wait and see” mode to figure out how or if it should act.
The market expects this “do nothing” stance to continue at the Fed’s policy meeting next Wednesday. Federal-funds futures traders see a 99% chance that the Fed will keep the fed-funds rate the same, according to CME FedWatch.
But we’ll be watching the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, due to be released as well. This is the quarterly exercise where the Fed gives its estimates for inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.
Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair is winding down in May. Still, these projections will be important as they could provide clarity for what the Fed may or may not do before Powell hands over the reins.
Recall that Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh, who still needs to be confirmed by the Senate. Barring surprises with Warsh’s nomination, which are entirely possible, next week’s meeting is just one of two chances (along with April’s meeting) for Powell’s decisions and words to have an impact.
Our bet is that Powell signals no moves coming over the next few months while the Fed continues to wait and see what happens with inflation and employment, not wanting to rock the boat. As our colleague Mike Barrett wrote in his Select Value Opportunities weekly updatetoday…
Outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell will resist changing monetary policy, regardless of the worsening outlook for employment and inflation. He’ll likely leave any decisions to presumptive incoming chair Kevin Warsh, who should lead his first meeting on June 16.
But the breakout of the war in Iran sets up an interesting situation come June… and the market’s next problem.
As we’ve been writing about for the past year, the market has grown to expect lower interest rates once a new Fed chair is installed in May. But the case for cutting rates in a few months likely won’t be justified as it once was.
The bond market may be starting to show that. Today, U.S. Treasury rates moved higher across the curve… The 10-year yield reached 4.2% and the 2-year moved above 3.6%, hitting a six-month high. Further moves higher could take a bite out of stock prices.
So prepare for more volatility ahead… not just from Iran headlines, but now from how the Fed handles it, too.
An update on our AI canary…
As we’ve discussed for months, we’re tracking cloud-computing giant Oracle (ORCL) as a possible “canary in the AI coal mine“… Its performance could signal what to expect or be cautious about moving ahead.
We first got skeptical after a nearly 40% one-day spike in Oracle shares after a quarterly earnings report back in September. The company had projected growth that didn’t seem sustainable or justified given its reliance on “remaining performance obligations,” or contracted revenue that the company hasn’t received yet.
And, since then, Oracle has become increasingly dependent on debt to fuel AI growth plans… without the profitable payoffs investors can envision from other “hyperscalers.”
As our colleague and True Wealth editor Brett Eversole predicted in his presentation at our annual conference in October, Oracle may need to “go cash-flow negative” and borrow around $100 billion over the next three to five years.
And last month, Oracle took steps to prove that prediction correct. It announced plans to raise up to $50 billion in 2026 to build out cloud infrastructure for its big-name AI clients like OpenAI, Nvidia (NVDA), and Meta Platforms (META).
These expenses come even while Oracle’s cash flows are a concern. Wall Street analysts expect its free cash flow to run a $20 billion deficit in each of the next three years.
Fellow hyperscalers like Meta, Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) produce loads of free cash flow from their existing core businesses. So they can make expensive AI investments without this deep level of debt.
Oracle has revenue coming down the road, but its cloud build-out – which it needs to meet AI demand, current and future – is happening right now.
Oracle’s shares have fallen about 50% since its all-time high in September as more investors have figured out this dynamic. It sounds like Oracle has gotten the message…
Numbers and words…
After posting strong third-quarter earnings last night, Oracle execs suggested on the company’s earnings call with Wall Street analysts that they don’t plan to borrow more money, this year at least, beyond what the company has already announced.
“Investing in AI infrastructure is capital-intensive, but our operating model is optimized to ensure profitability,” Oracle CEO Clayton Magouyrk said.
Take him at his word, I guess? Some people did. Oracle shares rose about 9% today, but buyer beware.
As Stansberry’s Credit Opportunitieseditor Mike DiBiase wrote in an update for his subscribers in December…
The only way Oracle can afford its infrastructure build-out is by borrowing. That means tens of billions of dollars of new debt.
Anyone buying Oracle stock today is betting on everything going right in two areas… Oracle’s business (like its backlog of orders generating enough profits in the future) and the AI story in general. But we remain skeptical.
Even with today’s rise, Oracle shares are still down 50% from September. And they remain below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, technical indicators of short- and long-term trends…
At the same time, our proprietary Stansberry Score for Oracle comes in at a 64 out of 100, with a “D” grade for valuation. There are better things to buy than Oracle shares if you’re looking to put new money to work today.
Recommended Links:
Former multibillion-dollar pension-fund trader who once turned a $4.6 million profit in 24 hours says this wave of volatility is just the beginning… but his No. 1 strategy could help you double your money – over and over again – even if stocks fall from here. Click here to learn more(includes a free stock giveaway).
TOMORROW: Red-Alert Warning From Jeff Brown
Jeff Brown believes Nvidia is about to trigger a major crash on March 16. In fact, he says it’s a “sure thing.” During a special event tomorrow, March 12, he’s going to reveal why this upcoming crash is a feature of the AI boom – not a bug – why the recent volatility is just the beginning, the name and ticker of a wildly popular AI stock that could crash, the stock that could see huge gains, and more… By tomorrow, click this link to register.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/10/26): BAE Systems (BAESY), Simplify Managed Futures Strategy Fund (CTA), Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), Starbucks (SBUX), and Sprott (SII).
In today’s mailbag, we’ve had a few more folks asking about a replay of Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond’s 2026 Market Crash Summit. If you missed the debut of the event yesterday, you can watch it at your convenience here…
Also, as always, Greg’s existing Ten Stock Trader subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members have access to all his work here…
And stay tuned to the Digest for more about his latest outlook. We’ll have a special Q&A with Greg tomorrow.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
March 11, 2026
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT
Microsoft11/11/101,357.3%Retirement MillionaireMSFT
Microsoft02/10/121,309.7%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryADP
Automatic Data Processing10/09/08831.4%Extreme ValueBRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09784.6%Retirement MillionaireSII
Sprott01/11/18784.3%Extreme ValueGOOGL
Alphabet12/15/16657.1%Retirement MillionaireWRB
W.R. Berkley03/15/12630.7%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryCIEN
Ciena10/20/22607.5%Stansberry Innovations ReportALS-T
Altius Minerals03/26/09591.4%Extreme ValueHSY
Hershey12/07/07565.1%Stansberry’s Investment Advisory
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc3Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter1Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations
Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationBTC/USD
Bitcoin11/27/181,759.4%Crypto CapitalWSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,696.9%Crypto CapitalONE/USD
Harmony12/16/191,010.7%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD
Polygon02/26/21642.3%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21549.3%Crypto Capital
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame
Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.
^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame
Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital
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© 2026 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or stansberryresearch.com.
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Goathouse $25,000 Matching Campaign
Dear Peter:
A very generous donor, is offering to match dollar for dollar, up to $25,000.
This means a potential to raise a total amount of $50,000 which will go a long way towards providing dental and any other veterinary care for the kitties. We have many old cats that still need dental surgeries; we have 5 kitties with cancer, the last one is Mimi-too with mammal carcinoma, we also have Earl Gray, Toby, Luigina and MiMi. The last 4 are 24, 24, 24 and 18 YO. Maple has an immune disease that gives him very painful blisters on his skin. Velluto is going to the Vet School on Tuesday at the Dermatology department to try to figure out how to deal with his skin problem. Our Vets tried many things without success; he is still not growing fur, and his skin is covered with blisters…. Clementina is going for dental on Monday; Cricket is going on Monday too because has a strange deep noise when he breaths and 2 nodules on his chest…. Your donations will make sure that we can pay for these adorable creatures and all the others for a long while.
Thank you! You know that all the “thank you” feel to me like old, overused jeans, but they are deeply felt in our hearts….
Love to all of you,
Siglinda and Bea.
Thank you in advance for your dedication to the Goathouse Refuge, a safe place for kitties, no matter what!
Donate using a Debit or Credit Card, PayPal, or Zelle using the Donate button and your donation will be doubled:
Or to become a Monthly Sustainer, click on Subscribe button and follow instructions on our website:
Thank you for helping us help the cats at the Refuge!
We are their Refuge • You are their Future
Include Goathouse Refuge.org in your estate planning
Goathouse Refuge: 405 Goathouse Road, Pittsboro, NC 27312
mailto:goathouserefugeoffice@gmail.com• 919-542-6815
http://www.goathouserefuge.org
Have you read “Behind the Scene”? It has some great stories about kitties and other animals saved by our refuge! Check it out by clicking on the link above.
Plan on visiting the Refuge? Please consider making a donation of one or some of the items on the list of daily-needed items:
To view Refuge Amazon Wish List use this link:
Sign up for an account at Chewy.com using this link and The Goathouse Refuge will receive a donation in your name!
This message was sent to peter.hovis@gmail.com from siglinda@goathouserefuge.org
Goathouse Refuge
680 Alton Alston Road
Pittsboro, NC 27312
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