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Exclusive News

Dell Just Hit a Record in AI Orders—But the Real Test Starts Now

Author: Leo Miller. Article Published: 12/2/2025. 

Dell servers in a data center.

In Brief

  • Dell Technologies experienced a notable increase in value following the company’s latest earnings release.
  • AI server orders broke records, and profitability in this part of the business returned to expected levels.
  • Dell will need to execute strongly on its AI server demand in the long term and improve margins to be a true AI winner.

For many investors, Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL)has become a divisive artificial intelligence (AI) stock. The company is seeing a large uptick in demand due to AI. Dell just reported its latest financial results, and AI orders hit a record high. If the company meets guidance next quarter, annual sales growth would be between 16% and 17% — a level Dell hasn’t reached in nearly four years.

Still, investors remain uncertain about Dell’s position in the AI ecosystem and whether it can emerge as a long-term winner. Dell’s latest results offer useful context for how the stock should be evaluated going forward.

Dell Raises Guidance as AI Orders Soar

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In Q3 fiscal year 2026 (FY2026), Dell reported revenue of $27.01 billion, an increase of 10.8%. (Note that Dell’s fiscal reporting period is one year ahead of the calendar year.) The result missed Wall Street estimates of $27.26 billion, which implied 11.8% growth. However, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.59 beat the $2.47 analysts anticipated.

Offsetting the sales miss, Dell raised its full FY2026 guidance for both revenue and adjusted EPS. It now expects sales of $111.7 billion at the midpoint (up from $107 billion previously) and adjusted EPS of $9.92 (up from $9.55). Management said the revenue shortfall was a timing issue rather than a demand problem: many sales expected in Q3 shifted into Q4, and there was enough additional demand next quarter to lift the full-year outlook.

Notably, Dell reported record AI server orders of $12.4 billion, and its AI server backlog rose to $18.4 billion from $11.7 billion in Q2 FY2026 — a clear sign demand exceeded supply. Markets reacted favorably: shares rose 5.8% on Nov. 26, and are up nearly 17% in 2025.

DELL’s AI Demand vs. Profitability: The Market’s Tug-of-War

Dell is clearly playing a significant role in AI, with strong server demand materially improving its outlook. A key question for investors, however, is how profitable those AI sales will be. When Dell builds AI servers it assembles components sourced from other companies.

That includes advanced parts such as NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) processing chips, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and NAND memory. With industry concerns about NAND and HBM shortages, component costs can rise and squeeze Dell’s AI server margins.

Dell emphasized that AI server margins returned to its expected “mid-single-digit” range in Q3 after one-time pressures pushed them below target in Q2. That return is encouraging, but mid-single-digit margins remain thin; sustainable margin expansion will be critical for Dell’s long-term profitability.

One path to better margins is broadening the customer mix, a process that appears to be underway. Much current demand comes from large, low-margin neo-cloud customers, while smaller enterprise customers typically provide higher margins. As Dell wins more of those customers, overall AI server margins should improve. Dell says it has over 6,700 unique customers in its pipeline, which supports the idea of a more diverse customer base. Over time the company also hopes to sell more higher-margin hardware, software and services as it becomes more embedded in customers’ AI infrastructure — a credible strategy if it can execute.

Analysts Are Moderately Bullish on DELL

The MarketBeat-tracked consensus price target for Dell sits at just over $161, implying roughly 22% upside. The average price target among analysts who updated estimates after the earnings release is nearly identical.

Analysts see meaningful upside if Dell can demonstrate margin expansion on AI servers. That outcome would likely push price targets higher. Near-term risks include pressure from component pricing and supply constraints, but on balance Dell’s long-term risk-reward profile appears moderately tilted to the upside.

Investors will, however, want to see AI server margins stabilize and then improve over time to continue validating that thesis.

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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