EDITOR’S NOTE: The Wall Street millionaire who called the rise of Apple, Amazon, and Netflix before they soared just shared his NEXT big call.
Dear Reader,
As a fragile peace holds in the Middle East…
Insiders in Washington are pushing forward with a dramatic move, which could make this the last time a Middle East oil shock hits America.
Put simply, Washington is backing a massive oil-industry breakthrough to save our country.
It could unlock thousands of years of energy. (CNN says it’s “near-limitless.”)
And the White House is already auctioning off land rights, ready for a massive drilling campaign.
But it’s NOT oil they’re drilling for.
It’s an energy source FAR more powerful.
And though we have the oil and gas industry to thank for this discovery, this new superfuel has the support of both sides of the aisle.
In fact, green energy supporters love it as much as oil and gas veterans.
And right now, there are SIX Bipartisan Bills supporting it due in Congress.
With gas and other energy costs soaring in 2026, it’s no surprise this industry is being fast-tracked.
I want to show you exactly where to move your money.
In fact, I name the one company at the heart of this story right here, free of charge.
Regards,
Whitney Tilson
Editor, Commodity Supercycles
Featured Content from MarketBeat.com
1 Stock To Buy And 1 To Sell If The War In Iran Ends
Author: Sam Quirke. Originally Published: 4/6/2026.
Key Points
- American Airlines looks positioned for a rebound if oil prices fall, with some analysts pointing to around 30% in potential upside.
- Exxon Mobil has benefited from elevated oil prices, but some recent weakness and neutral analyst ratings suggest its rally may be running out of steam.
- The setup is clear, but timing is uncertain, and investors will need to be very reactive.
- Special Report: The Biggest IPO Ever: Claim Your Stake Today
The sharp move in oil since early February—driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—has created one of the clearest macro-driven divergences in the market. In just a few weeks, Brent crude has surged roughly 60% to about $110 per barrel, while sectors exposed to fuel costs have taken a significant hit.
At the center of that trade sits American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL), trading just under $11 and down roughly 30% since early February. On the other side is Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), which was up around 35% year to date as March closed. It’s still holding onto gains, but has pulled back more than 10% in recent sessions as hopes of a resolution have begun to emerge.
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That sets up a simple but potentially powerful scenario. If tensions show meaningful signs of easing and oil falls, the reversal could be just as sharp as the move higher. The question is whether that opportunity is already priced in or still ahead.
American Airlines Looks Like a Recovery Trade Waiting to Happen
Airlines in general, and American Airlines in particular, have been among the most direct casualties of the oil spike. Fuel is one of the industry’s largest costs, and a sustained, surprise rise in oil prices quickly pressures margins.
The recent action is notable. Despite oil trading well above $100 a barrel and remaining volatile, American Airlines has traded largely sideways over the past month. At one point in recent sessions, the stock was trading at roughly the same price it had been one week after the conflict began. That suggests much of the potential downside may already be priced in.
On that basis, the setup becomes asymmetric. Even if oil remains elevated going into Q2, the downside for American Airlines shares is likely limited given how much they’ve already fallen.
But if the price of oil starts to decline, the recovery in American shares could be as sharp—and one-directional—as the fall.
Analysts are beginning to lean into this thesis. Both Citigroup and UBS reiterated their Buy ratings on American Airlines in the past fortnight, with fresh price targets up to $14—implying roughly 30% upside from current levels. That reinforces the idea that the market may be underestimating how quickly airlines can rebound if input costs ease.
Exxon Mobil’s Rally Looks Increasingly Stretched
On the other side, energy stocks like Exxon Mobil have been clear beneficiaries of higher oil prices this year, with Exxon’s stock up about 35% since the first week of January. That move made sense as higher realized oil prices flow directly into higher revenue.
But, as with American Airlines, recent price action in Exxon is telling.
After hitting an all-time high earlier this week, the stock has dropped nearly 10% as hopes grew for a meaningful de-escalation and a potential resolution to the conflict.
At the same time, analyst sentiment toward Exxon has started to cool. Citigroup rated it Neutral on Thursday, echoing moves from Mizuho and HSBC in recent weeks. That suggests much of the upside tied to higher oil prices may already be priced in.
In that scenario, any sign that the Strait of Hormuz is reopening—and oil prices fall back toward pre-conflict levels in the mid-$60s—could spell near-term trouble for Exxon.
Positioning Matters More Than Prediction
The key takeaway is that this trade is less about picking winners and losers and more about understanding positioning. American Airlines has effectively absorbed a worst-case scenario in many respects, while Exxon may already reflect something close to a best-case outcome. That creates a rare setup in which both sides are driven by the same variable but move in opposite directions.
If tensions ease and oil retraces, the unwind could be swift. Airlines would see immediate relief from lower fuel costs and improved margin expectations, while energy stocks would lose the tailwind that propelled their recent surge. That doesn’t make Exxon a bad long-term hold, but it does make the near-term risk-reward less compelling at current levels.
At the same time, the biggest risk isn’t being wrong on direction but on timing. With headlines shifting daily, this remains a highly reactive market, and investors will need to match conviction with discipline.
Featured Content from MarketBeat.com
Why Dave & Buster’s Stock Is Ripping Higher Despite Ugly Earnings
Author: Thomas Hughes. Originally Published: 4/2/2026.
Key Points
- Dave & Buster’s is set up for a short-covering rally and potentially a squeeze as turnaround efforts bear fruit.
- Store remodels, new games, and new offerings invigorate comp sales; management plans to accelerate change.
- Institutions and analysts suggest robust rebound potential, with consensus forecasting triple-digit gains this year.
- Special Report: The Biggest IPO Ever: Claim Your Stake Today
Dave & Busters (NASDAQ: PLAY) missed top- and bottom-line estimates for fiscal Q4 2026, yet the stock surged before the report and extended gains afterward. The price action suggests short-covering is in play — a meaningful signal for investors.
Dave & Buster’s Back-to-Basics strategy appears to be working: internal metrics and guidance show improvement, traction and an inflection point for the business.
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And the potential is significant. The stock had fallen more than 70% heading into the report, with short-sellers heavily positioned. Short interest, up 10% as of the March report, was running near 30%, creating a notable headwind for price action.
Key takeaways from the earnings report that may have triggered short-covering include clear signs of business traction. Storm-adjusted results beat expectations, and sequential improvements throughout the quarter carried into early 2026. Strength came from store remodels — new games and offerings that increased customer spend and produced significantly better comparable-store sales than legacy locations.
PLAY Analysts Point to Robust Rebound Potential
No analysts issued revised ratings immediately after the release; it may take more than one report to spur broader activity. Still, the eight analysts tracked by MarketBeat rate the stock a Moderate Buy.
The consensus shows a 37.5% Buy-side bias and a projected upside of roughly 90% to the consensus target. The lowest analyst target of $18—about 80% above recent March lows—underscores the depth of the value opportunity. Q2 2026 results could reinforce this range and strengthen the upside case over time.
Institutional trends suggest these investors will be active buyers of PLAY in Q2. Institutions own more than 90% of the company and were net buyers for two consecutive quarters. Selling activity remains high, so volatility is possible given the elevated short interest, but Q1’s net buying points to accumulation. If that buying continues, the short-covering rally could evolve into a squeeze: days-to-cover remain elevated at over eight.
The price-to-earnings multiple looks stretched because the company lost money in 2025 and is expected to be unprofitable again in 2026. The caveat is analysts’ forecasts do not yet reflect Q1 improvements or the free-cash-flow outlook, which is expected to exceed $100 million. In that scenario, Dave & Buster’s would be in a stronger financial position with reliable capital returns. The main risk is a slowdown in share buybacks, but annualized share-count reduction is still expected in the current and subsequent fiscal years. Dave & Buster’s reported its official share count fell by more than 13% in 2025.
Dave & Buster’s Stock Price at an Inflection Point in Q2 2026
The balance sheet reflects the effects of the turnaround, operational headwinds and share-count reductions. Year-end highlights show increased cash and assets and sufficient liquidity to sustain operations through 2026 while the company returns to comp-store growth. Comp-store growth, additional remodels, new store openings and margin improvements are expected in 2026.
The post-release price action is notable. PLAY fell initially, then rebounded quickly as investors and short-sellers digested the results. The market gapped significantly higher the day after the report, a move that confirmed support at recent lows and the potential for an extended rebound.
If short-sellers and institutions continue buying, the pace of the stock’s rise remains the key question. The base case is a steady recovery; the bull case is a short squeeze pushing the shares to $18 or higher. That $18 level aligns with the long-term 150-week exponential moving average and represents a key resistance point for this restaurant stock.
Catalysts include improving cash flow, disciplined capital allocation and an accelerating remodel and game pipeline. Remodels should drive comparable-store sales, potentially producing outperformance as the year progresses. The market response will likely accelerate once an inflection to growth is evident. Execution remains the biggest risk, but management changes made in 2024–25 appear to be paying off now.
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Today’s Featured Content: The “secret weapon” behind Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google(From InvestorPlace)
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