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The changing market stew… Inflation numbers are heading higher… The irony of Fed and interest-rate expectations… Kevin Warsh is in Washington… Sentiment changed quickly… Resembling the early days…
War… tariffs… and the ‘next thing’…
In a nearly 40-minute phone conversation broadcast live on CNBC this morning, President Donald Trump answered every question a trio of hosts asked, and then some…
On negotiations with Iran, Trump said the U.S. will “end up with a great deal,” but also “expects to be bombing” Iran if a deal isn’t reached.
Later, after today’s market close, Trump said that he would “extend the Ceasefire” so the “seriously fractured” government of Iran could “come up with a unified proposal” in negotiations, presumably about key subjects like the nation’s nuclear ambitions.
This morning, the president also briefly discussed tariffs and expressed frustration that Uncle Sam is now on the hook for $165 billion in refunds since the Supreme Court ruled his tariff policy illegal earlier this year.
Trump also addressed the “next thing,” as we’ve described it over the past month or so – high(er) inflation (again) – with the war in Iran raising energy prices.
The Cleveland Federal Reserve is now projecting a 3.6% headline inflation rate for April and a roughly 5% rate for the second quarter. The former would be the highest headline monthly number since August 2023.
One hopes the conflict in the Middle East will soon be over. But expect a continued inflationary environment in the months ahead.
The issue is multifold…
While most folks are focused on the price at the gas pump, there are also outstanding questions about future global oil and gas supply.
The last of pre-war Persian Gulf oil has reached its destination, and only a small fraction of what would normally be 20% of global oil supply has moved since.
Even with a “ceasefire” in place, the U.S. will continue a “blockade” of the Strait of Hormuz… while at least part of the Iranian military also maintains it has control of the key passage. Meantime, oil shipments and hundreds of tankers are stalled as part of the battlefield. And emergency reserves aren’t enough to fill the gaps without prices rising.
Plus, Qatar’s critical liquefied natural gas facility, which accounts for at least 20% of global exports, isn’t fully operational (and it likely won’t be for years) because of Iranian attacks.
So we also have to consider what continued higher prices for consumers and producers might mean for the overall economy… Fed policy… and the market.
Speaking of the Fed…
For nearly two years, the market has been expecting a lower-interest-rate environment once current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires this May.
Ironically, now that Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, is poised to take over, the market isn’t banking on rate cuts anymore… at least not until sometime in 2027 because of the resurgence of war-related inflation.
Trump has publicly criticized Powell for not lowering rates since his 2024 election. So on CNBC this morning, journalist Becky Quick asked the president, “Will you be disappointed if your new Fed Chair, if he gets approved, doesn’t cut rates right away?”
“I would,” Trump said. Though he later added some qualifiers: 1) that he believes interest-rate hikes do help stop inflation, but 2) the U.S. “should have the lowest interest rate in the world.” That last part is an important detail when it comes to his Fed criticism.
In the meantime, Warsh testified today at Capitol Hill ahead of the Congressional vote on his nomination. Among other things, he said he won’t be Trump’s “sock puppet” for policy, as Senator Elizabeth Warren said he would, and that Trump never asked him for assurances that he would lower rates.
Like spring returning, the Fed/White House/Congress gamesmanship begins anew.
Warsh also suggested that there are too many Fed post-policy meeting press conferences. And he also seemed interested in cutting back on the amount of guidance the central bank and its governors give publicly. He said…
Too many Fed officials, past and present, opine in advance about where they think interest rates should be next meeting, next quarter and next year. I think that’s quite unhelpful.
If this indicates there will be less “opining” from the Fed under Warsh, then “reading between the lines” of economic data, politics, and policy (which we try to do here) might become even more valuable. Fed “surprises” could also become more frequent.
That was quick…
During the TV interview this morning, Trump also said he was surprised the stock market didn’t lose more… and that oil prices hadn’t moved higher. That could end up being a warning of sorts…
While market “fear” has dissipated over the past two weeks, and enough investors have been looking past the short-term war risks to deliver a “V shaped” recovery in the indexes, sentiment has also now probably – too quickly – turned to “greed.”
The war in Iran resulted in extreme fear just a few weeks ago. Now there’s extreme bullishness among investors. Again, all of this is happening in a very short span.
Many hedge funds had to cover shorts and chase this market higher.
Today, we can see an extreme on the other end of the spectrum. Here’s the CBOE equity put/call ratio, which measures the amount of puts versus calls traded on the CBOE exchange.
As Greg points out with the red arrow in the chart above (click here to enlarge), the put/call ratio has dropped to around 0.4. In previous instances, “a low in this ratio almost always marks some type of market top.” The last time it happened was in January. As Greg wrote…
So we’re back near this level again. Investors seem to think the war in Iran will end quickly, similar to what happened last year regarding tariffs. They may be wrong. Also, private-credit stress is building… President Donald Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to talk trade (again) next month… And the Federal Reserve meeting next week is unlikely to have positive news around oil and inflation constraints.
These are of course the “whys” behind a potential market drawdown. But if we take into account the extreme bullish positioning of calls versus puts shown in the chart above, it’s bad news… The market almost always hurts the most people when everyone is on the same side of the boat.
In this case, a steep decline would do just that.
So, yes, there are opportunities to make long-term investments amid war-related volatility (as we discussed yesterday). But, as we write today, the market may have moved past the associated risks a little too quickly.
If you’re anticipating the short-term surge in U.S. stocks to continue, you may want to temper those expectations.
Today brought some possible early signs of a cooldown as the market resembled the early days of the Iran war.
The major U.S. stock indexes were all lower, with the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 Index down 0.6%, and only the energy sector up significantly. Volatility also picked up with the CBOE Volatility Index around 20. And oil futures gained around 5% as the world waits to see what happens next in the Middle East.
Thirty-year Wall Street veteran Joel Litman is warning that the top four money managers – BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity, and State Street – are set to start liquidating major positions starting April 30. It’s because of a little-known financial framework that mandates these money managers MUST sell. This happens every year like clockwork. Last year, his analysis shows it sent dozens of stocks spiraling… but also gave you the chance to double your money 21 times. Get up to speed here before Wall Street starts selling.
This February, Elon Musk spent millions to send a message to 125 million Americans. Most people ignored it. But Wall Street veteran Whitney Tilson couldn’t stop thinking about it, and he says that what Musk was really saying explains everything about what’s unfolding in America’s economy right now. He’s sharing his full analysis for free here.
New 52-week highs (as of 4/20/26): Arista Networks (ANET), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fusnd (BOXX), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Emcor (EME), EnerSys (ENS), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), Hubbell (HUBB), iShares Convertible Bond Fund (ICVT), LXP Industrial Trust (LXP), Nucor (NUE), Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy Fund (PBW), Public Storage (PSA), Ryder System (R), Roku (ROKU), Twist Bioscience (TWST), Texas Instruments (TXN), Vale (VALE), and State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor Fund (XSD).
Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland April 21, 2026
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT Microsoft11/11/101,380.3%Retirement MillionaireMSFT Microsoft02/10/121,349.8%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryCIEN Ciena10/20/22810.3%Stansberry Innovations ReportADP Automatic Data Processing10/09/08787.9%Extreme ValueBRK.B Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09765.1%Retirement MillionaireGOOGL Alphabet12/15/16731.6%Retirement MillionaireSII Sprott01/11/18678.0%Extreme ValueALS-T Altius Minerals03/26/09671.5%Extreme ValueWRB W.R. Berkley03/15/12615.1%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryLITE Lumentum04/15/21572.8%Stansberry Innovations Report
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc2Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel2Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations
Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationBTC/USD Bitcoin11/27/181,918.8%Crypto CapitalWSTETH/USD Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,873.7%Crypto CapitalONE/USD Harmony12/16/191,009.5%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD Polygon02/26/21641.5%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21524.8%Crypto Capital
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame
Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital
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I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis.
I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God.
I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree.
Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons.
I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA.
While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon..
In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God.
We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987).
From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting.
Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982.
I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects.
In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston.
In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018.
Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia.
In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey.
As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova.
Love and God Bless,
Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi
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RJ Hamster 