“That is not a partnership. It’s NVIDIA buying optionality on its own optical supply chain.”
Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance
NVIDIA cannot do its job without Lumentum (LITE).
When NVIDIA sells a rack of GPUs to a hyperscaler, the chips inside still have to talk to each other.
They do that through high-speed optical transceivers, which are devices that turn electrical signals into pulses of light so data can move through fiber optic cables at extreme speeds.
Lumentum makes the lasers and modules that carry that light.
In 2026, NVIDIA made a $2 billion strategic investment in Lumentum and committed to multi-billion-dollar purchase agreements over the coming years.
In other words, NVIDIA is buying optionality on its own optical supply chain.
But none of that is why it is on my watchlist right now.
It is on my watchlist because of what the chart shows.
The Business
The bottleneck in the entire AI buildout is not GPU supply. It is bandwidth, the speed at which thousands of chips can talk to each other inside a data center.
As AI models get bigger, that speed becomes the constraint.
The industry is moving from 800G to 1.6T transceivers, which means upgrading the optical hardware from 800 gigabits per second to 1.6 terabits per second of data transfer.
Lumentum controls roughly 50 to 60 percent of the market share in the laser chips that make 1.6T possible.
Q2 FY26 revenue was up 65 percent year over year to $665 million. The company guided Q3 to $780-830 million, which would be 85 percent year-over-year growth.
Operating margins jumped from 7 percent to 25 percent in a year, and the order backlog for optical circuit switches alone is over $400 million.
The stock has doubled in 2026, was added to the S&P 500, and has now beaten earnings eight quarters in a row.
The TPS Setup
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My system runs three checks before I look at any trade. Trend, Pattern, Squeeze. In that order.
The trend check starts with the moving averages. An exponential moving average, or EMA, weights recent prices more heavily than older data. A simple moving average, or SMA, treats every closing price equally over a defined period.
On Lumentum’s daily chart, price is sitting above the 8-day EMA. The 8-day is above the 20-day EMA. The 20-day is well above the 200-day SMA. That is a fully stacked structure with price on top, which tells me the trend has momentum at every timeframe I check.
The same stacked structure holds on the weekly chart. When both daily and weekly confirm, the trend has institutional weight behind it.
The pattern is a squeeze forming on the daily chart. A squeeze occurs when Bollinger Bands, which track how far price has strayed from its average, compress inside the Keltner Channels, which measure volatility based on average daily range.
When the bands contract inside the channels, momentum is coiling before a release.
The trend is confirmed on daily and weekly charts. A squeeze is active on the daily.
The Bear Case
The stock is up 1,444 percent over the last twelve months. That is a lot of good news already priced in.
The bigger problem is the calendar.
Earnings hit Tuesday after the close. A loaded squeeze on a runner like this, heading into a binary catalyst with eight consecutive beats already in the rearview, is one of the riskiest setups in the market.
Any guidance missed or cautious 1.6T commentary on the call resets the entire narrative.
I do not take trades into earnings.
Your Action Plan
The trade, if there is one, is what happens after Tuesday.
Look at what Intel did last week. Earnings came in strong. The stock gapped higher and kept trending up in the sessions after the print. That is institutional conviction showing up after the binary event.
That is the move I am watching for on Lumentum.
A beat that fades the rip, no trade. A miss takes it off the table. A modest move with no conviction is just noise.
If you want to know how I’m moving, which trades I’m taking, you can find out more here.Want more content like this?
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