Tony Just Called This Market Broken

Don here…

NQ printed a fresh all-time high before the cash open this morning. 

Crude oil traded 106 while Iran’s army announced “a new chapter our enemies have never seen before.”

Tony Rago took one look at the tape and called the market broken. That word carries weight from a trader who refuses to carry a directional bias into any session.

Tony is also hosting his Golden Setup Webinar tomorrow at 2pm Eastern, where he teaches the exact framework he uses to navigate tapes like this one.Save your spot here.

The Monday session laid out why this rally feels structurally unsustainable. Tony walked through the math, the geopolitics, and the parallels nobody in the bull camp wants to hear right now.

In today’s free session replay, you’ll discover:

  • Why this rally cannot continue without a 3% pullback – learn the structural argument for why over-leveraged late entrants make every new all-time high more dangerous than the last one.
  • How 2026 stacks up worse than 2022 ever did – understand why we are running into the same overextension Don warned about in late 2021, now layered with war headlines and tariffs on top.
  • The “if it ain’t easy, I don’t want it” philosophy that protects accounts – hear how a veteran trader walked off the ES tape this morning and called the golf course instead of forcing trades through chop.
  • Why the AI trade is the powder keg under the index – get Tony’s view on what happens to the broader market when the semiconductor leadership finally cracks.

Tony watched a tape that could not get out of its own way through the morning session. Price chopped between weekly pivot and the round numbers with no real conviction in either direction.

He pointed to the bigger problem most traders are ignoring. The market sits roughly 1.3% off the 7,300 high without anything resembling a real reset of leverage.

The longer this climb runs without that reset, the steeper the eventual pullback becomes. Tony framed the whole argument as math the bulls cannot wish away.

Tony also reminded the room what made 2022 different from today. There was no war, no tariffs, and no crude at 106 stacked on top of an already extended tape back then.

Anyone trading this tape needs to respect the levels above all else right now. Headlines move price faster than any stop loss can react.

→ Watch Tony explain why the rally looks broken at 7,300 and how the geopolitical layer makes this market more fragile than 2022 ever was

To your success, 

Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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