Hidden in Tesla’s Filing: A $12 Billion “Super Startup”

May 11, 2026 

Pull up Tesla’s most recent SEC filing. Page 5. 

And you’ll see a single line showing $12 billion in revenue from a brand-new “super startup“ Elon Musk has been quietly incubating inside Tesla. 

This new “super startup” has nothing to do with cars or robots or space or AI…

But it sits at the center of what Blackstone calls “a $23 trillion investment opportunity.” 

And on July 22, Elon is expected to pull back the curtain and reveal exactly what he’s building. 

But Adam O’Dell already knows… and he reveals it all in this urgent video.Claim Your Free Access.

📊 BONUS: BONUS: MU up 38%. Same chart. Different decade.

Micron’s 38% Week Has Me Looking at Applied Materials Thursday 

The memory supercycle bull case is real. That’s not the same as the valuation being right.

MU closed at $746.81 Friday. Up 38% on the week — best weekly gain since December 2008, when the stock was trading below five bucks. In December 2008 the only buyers were people who thought it couldn’t get worse. They were right, and the trade was obvious in hindsight. What’s less obvious is what you do with a stock that’s up 124% year-to-date and now carries an $840 billion market cap going into a week where the equipment company reports Thursday.

The bull case is real. Micron told investors last quarter that demand for high-bandwidth memory far exceeds what they can currently supply. SanDisk posted Q3 revenue up 251% year-over-year. SK Hynix is letting hyperscalers pre-fund dedicated production capacity rather than building on spec. The DRAM ETF launched in April and gained roughly 90% before most people realized it existed. Order books stretch into 2027. None of that is manufactured narrative. I’m not dismissing those numbers.

What I keep coming back to is 1999. Cisco Systems was the most valuable company in the world. The networking buildout was real — fiber infrastructure spending was genuinely exploding, enterprise capital was flowing, Cisco’s revenues were real. The gap between what the buildout required and what it could actually return — that part turned out to be fiction. I’m not saying memory in 2026 ends the same way. I’m saying the chart looks familiar, the sentiment looks familiar, and the question is different from whether the demand is real.

The argument for why this cycle is different is supply discipline. Memory manufacturers burned through three down-cycles — 2015, 2018, 2022 — and learned something. SK Hynix isn’t building speculatively. Micron is allocating capacity to committed customers rather than racing ahead of demand. That structural change is real and it matters to the duration of the upcycle. But supply discipline at the company level and a rational valuation at $840 billion are two different conversations, and the market is only having one of them right now.

“Order books stretched to 2027 is exactly what fiber company CFOs were saying in 1999. Most of that backlog was never shipped.”

Tom Lee has been bullish on memory all year. Goldman Sachs just upgraded the sector last week — and Goldman’s upgrades have historically tended to mark the midpoint of moves, not the beginning. Cathie Wood’s ARKK started accumulating SanDisk last month. When those three line up on the same trade, I don’t add. I watch what the equipment companies are reporting. Which is why Thursday matters more than the next two Micron headlines combined.

What Applied Materials Tells You Before the Market Does

Applied Materials reports Thursday May 14 after the close. AMAT sells the equipment that builds the chips. They see the order book before anyone else — what foundries are actually committing CapEx to, what HBM tooling timelines look like, whether the demand stretching into 2027 is backed by purchase orders or by phone calls someone can walk back. The equity market usually figures out what AMAT already knows about six months later.

I’ve been wrong calling cycle tops before. In March 2020 I said the COVID rebound was moving too fast and missed two months of the most aggressive V-shaped recovery I’d seen. The memory supply-demand fundamentals are genuinely the best they’ve looked in this company’s history. But 38% in a week, $840 billion market cap, going into an earnings report from the company that can confirm or crack the demand thesis — that’s not the moment I’m comfortable adding on the open Monday. The bond market is telling you something too. Watch the 2-year this week.

What to watch: Applied Materials (AMAT) reports Thursday May 14 after the close. Watch specifically for HBM tooling order language and the Q3 revenue guidance range. If AMAT confirms demand integrity through 2027 with committed purchase order language, the Micron thesis gets real validation. If the guide softens — even if just the tone around 2027 visibility softens — the market won’t take six months to reprice this.

— David Mercer, Senior Market Analyst

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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