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Don here…
Semiconductors are 150 percent higher over the last twelve months. That puts the sector four standard deviations above its long-run mean.
Most traders see that statistic and run for the exits.
Gianni Di Poce pulled the historical comparisons this morning and the data tells a different story.
The same setup hit in 2003 and the sector tacked on another 21 percent over three months. When it appeared again in 2021, chips ran another 37 percent over nine months.
Gianni compares the current market to 1998 during the dot-com run. The melt-up has serious room before the reckoning arrives.
In today’s free session replay, you’ll discover:
- Why the top 10 percent of households drive 50 percent of all consumer spending. This is the data that explains how the bull market continues even while sentiment craters for everyone earning under 100 thousand. The people moving markets are not the people losing sleep over groceries.
- The historical signal behind the recent six-week win streak.Markets finish higher 90 percent of the time twelve months later after this setup. The average gain is 17 percent. The math favors more upside even when the rally feels stretched.
- Why technology overtaking energy across every timeframe matters. Tech now leads on weekly, monthly, year-to-date, and one-year measures. Sector dominance like that precedes the parabolic phase of every major bull market.
- The roaring twenties comparison that frames the rest of this decade. Gianni thinks technology could grow to 60 or 70 percent of the S&P 500 before the bubble pops. After that comes a lost decade where bonds become the asset of choice.
The bigger picture is about who actually owns the stocks. Wall Street has not reflected Main Street for decades.
The wealthy own equities and equities keep going up. The party continues as long as the structure holds.
Strength compounds before it breaks. Today’s session gives you the historical framework to read exactly where we are in the cycle.
→ Watch Gianni explain why we are in 1998 not 2000 and what that means for the rest of this decade
To your success,
Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
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