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WHAT THE SMART MONEY IS DOINGWEDNESDAY, MAY 13, 2026by Nate Fowler
Inflation is back. April CPI came in at 3.8% annually — above the 3.7% forecast, the highest since May 2023 — and core inflation accelerated to 2.8%, also above estimates. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% Tuesday; the Nasdaq lost 0.8%. Oil surged 3% above $101 as Trump called the ceasefire “on life support.” The U.S. government released 53.3 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — and prices still rose. Real wages fell 0.5% in April. CME FedWatch now shows zero rate cuts priced in for 2026. The war is in the inflation data. Today: PPI arrives, Cisco reports after the close, and the market asks whether the Fed’s next move is a cut or a hike.
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Who Bought
What they bought and when
U.S. releases 53.3 million barrels from Strategic Petroleum Reserve 53.3M bbl
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is the U.S. government’s emergency oil stockpile. On Tuesday, the government released 53.3 million barrels as part of a 172-million-barrel IEA-coordinated release. WTI crude still rose 3%. When the largest coordinated release since 2022 cannot prevent prices from rising, the shortage is larger than the policy response.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser: 100 million barrels lost per day 100M bbl/day
Saudi Aramco is the world’s largest oil company. CEO Amin Nasser said Monday the world is losing 100 million barrels of oil supply each day the war continues — roughly the entire daily global consumption. That frames Hormuz not as a disruption but an existential supply problem.
Plug Power rises 11% after reporting progress toward profitability +11%
Plug Power (PLUG) develops hydrogen fuel cell systems for industrial equipment and vehicles. Shares rose 11% Tuesday after reporting strong revenue growth and progress toward its goal of profitability by Q4 2026. With oil above $100 and gas at $4.50 nationally, the economics of hydrogen as a fuel alternative are improving with every barrel that doesn’t come through Hormuz.
Lumentum added to Nasdaq index — optics plays rise on AI data center demand LITE +5%
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) makes the optical components and lasers that connect servers inside AI data centers. Shares rose 5% Monday after Nasdaq announced it would add the company to its index. The AI supply chain keeps expanding beyond chips into the physical infrastructure that moves data at the speed of light.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q2 growth at 3.7% 3.7% GDP
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model — a real-time tracker of incoming economic data — is pointing toward 3.7% growth in Q2 2026. That is a strong number. The economy is growing and inflation is rising at the same time. That combination — growth plus rising prices — gives the Fed no clear path to cut rates and no reason to hike aggressively. It is the hardest position for a central bank.
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Who Sold
Exits and reductions this week
CPI 3.8% — hottest since May 2023, above estimates 3.8% YoY
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in April and 3.8% year-over-year — the highest annual reading since May 2023 and 0.1 percentage point above consensus. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.4% monthly and 2.8% annually, both above estimates. Energy surged 17.9% YoY (gasoline +28.4%). Shelter rose 0.6% monthly. Airline fares rose 20.7% YoY. The war is in the core numbers now.
Real wages fall 0.5% — workers are losing purchasing power −0.5%
Real average hourly earnings — wages adjusted for inflation — fell 0.5% in April and are down 0.3% annually. Nominal wages rose 3.6% but prices rose 3.8%, meaning workers’ paychecks buy less than they did a year ago. When real wages turn negative, consumer spending power erodes regardless of what the stock market does.
CME FedWatch: zero rate cuts priced in for 2026 0 Cuts
The CME FedWatch tool — which tracks futures markets to estimate the probability of Fed rate moves — now shows zero rate cuts for the rest of 2026. Earlier this year, at least one quarter-point cut was priced in. Chris Zaccarelli, CIO at Northlight Asset Management, said it is now “possible that we may start pricing in rate hikes for next year.”
Nasdaq falls 0.8% as tech selloff follows hot CPI print −0.8%
The Nasdaq fell 0.8% Tuesday — its worst session in a week — led lower by growth stocks sensitive to interest rate expectations. The S&P 500 lost 0.5% and the Dow fell 198 points. Tech stocks priced on future cash flows are worth less when rates stay higher for longer. That repricing landed Tuesday morning.
Trump calls ceasefire “on life support,” oil rises above $101 WTI $101+
Trump told reporters Monday that Iran’s response was “garbage” and the ceasefire was “on life support.” WTI crude rose above $101 Tuesday; Brent above $108. National average gas hit $4.50 per gallon. Every day the Strait of Hormuz stays closed adds supply pressure that no SPR release can offset.
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Where the Money Moved
Sector performance — Tuesday, May 12, 2026 (last trading day)
Energy
+1.4%
Utilities
+0.4%
Cons. Staples
−0.2%
Financials
−0.4%
Industrials
−0.6%
Technology
−0.8%
Cons. Disc.
−1.0%Money flowing inMoney flowing out
Tuesday’s rotation after the CPI: energy was the only sector meaningfully green. Technology — which had led the market for six straight weeks — fell 0.8%. Consumer discretionary was the worst at −1.0%. When the inflation print is hot enough to flip the rate-cut narrative, the sectors that need low rates get hit first.
NATE’S TAKE
The CPI print confirmed what the market had been trading around: the war is now in the inflation data. Headline at 3.8% is one thing — energy prices will do that. But core CPI at 2.8%, above the 2.7% estimate, is different. Core strips out food and energy. When core accelerates, it means oil costs are filtering into shelter, airline fares, apparel, and services. That is not a temporary supply shock anymore. It is price-level contagion. The market’s reaction tells you exactly how it processed that distinction: the Nasdaq fell 0.8%, energy was the only sector meaningfully green, and CME FedWatch erased all remaining rate cuts for 2026. Northlight’s Chris Zaccarelli said the market may start pricing in hikes for 2027. Real wages fell 0.5% in April. Workers are losing purchasing power. The economy is growing at 3.7% according to the Atlanta Fed. Growth plus inflation plus no rate relief — that is the environment the incoming Fed chair inherits on Thursday.
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Who’s Hedging
What’s being priced into the market today
PPI data arrives this morning — wholesale inflation’s turn PPI Today
The Producer Price Index measures wholesale inflation before it reaches consumers. If PPI confirms the CPI story — rising input costs across the economy — it means the inflation pipeline has more pressure behind it. If PPI is milder, it suggests consumer prices are being driven by demand rather than costs, which is a different kind of inflation.
Cisco, Tencent, and Alibaba all report today Wed Earnings
Cisco Systems (CSCO) makes the networking and AI infrastructure hardware that connects data centers. It reports fiscal Q3 after today’s close, with consensus at $15.5 billion in revenue and EPS of $1.04. Cisco is up 28% this year on hyperscaler demand. Tencent and Alibaba — China’s two largest tech companies — also report today.
Gas at $4.50 nationally — up 50% since the war began $4.50/gal
National average gas reached $4.50 per gallon Tuesday (AAA) — up 50% since the war began. CPI confirmed gasoline is up 28.4% year-over-year. Hormuz stays closed, supply stays tight, and the SPR release cannot close the gap.
Memory chip ETF gained 30% in a single week — Applied Materials reports Thursday DRAM +30%
The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) — which tracks companies making the memory chips used in AI servers — rose nearly 30% last week. Applied Materials (AMAT), which makes the equipment used to manufacture those chips, reports Thursday. The AI hardware supply chain is still accelerating while the rest of the market absorbs the inflation data.
Retail sales data Thursday — the consumer spending test Thu Data
April retail sales arrive Thursday. Real wages are down 0.5%, gas is at $4.50, and consumer sentiment is at all-time lows. If retail sales hold, the economy is resilient. If they fall, the squeeze has reached the register.
THE TAKEAWAY
The war is in the inflation data. CPI at 3.8%, highest since May 2023. Core at 2.8%, above estimates. Real wages fell 0.5%. Zero rate cuts priced for 2026. The U.S. released 53 million barrels from the SPR and oil still rose 3%. Gas is at $4.50. Saudi Aramco’s CEO said the world is losing 100 million barrels of daily supply. The Nasdaq fell 0.8%. PPI arrives this morning. Cisco, Tencent, and Alibaba report today. Applied Materials tomorrow. The memory chip ETF gained 30% last week. The market came into this week at records. It leaves Tuesday knowing the inflation the war created is not temporary — and the Fed has no easy answer.
— Nate Fowler
WHO BOUGHT · WHO SOLD · WHO’S HEDGING
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