Bonds Broke. Brace For Impact.

Friday, May 15, 2026

⚠️ I Owe You A Straight Answer On Why We Reopened

Don here. The cohort locked Thursday at 1 PM, and by Friday morning my inbox was full of traders asking if there was a waitlist or a backdoor in.

There is not one, and I do not reopen closed cohorts for marketing reasons. I reopened this one because the demand was real and I would rather get you in than tell you no.

The door is back open through Sunday at midnight Pacific, and after that the A.I. Accelerator and the cohort price are both gone.

The 9:30 grinder wakes up Monday and reacts to whatever the algos throw at the open, while the 10-percenter already has Monday’s trade drawn from Sunday evening.

👉 PICK YOUR SIDE BEFORE SUNDAY MIDNIGHT

Don here…

The bond market broke today. That changes everything heading into Monday.

The 10-year interest rate gapped from 4.45% to 4.6% on heavy volume. You rarely see a move that size in a single session.

It happened on the same day Kevin Warsh took over as the new Fed Chair. He inherited a mess on day one.

The S&P closed down 1.3% and got smoked into the cash close. Bonds, oil, the dollar, and broken correlation are all waving red flags at the same time.

Tonight’s video walks through the four signals I cannot ignore heading into next week:

  • The 10-year gapped from 4.45% to 4.6% in a single session. Bonds breached lower on heavy volume, and 5% on rates is back in play.
  • Oil pushed back above $100 a barrel while CPI and PPI both came in red hot this week. Inflationary pressure is rebuilding fast.
  • The US dollar ripped higher for the fourth straight session. Smart money is in full duck and cover mode, dumping bonds and bidding the greenback.
  • The SPX implied move jumped from $110 to $136 for next week. The three day expected move already sits at $62 with no major earnings or economic data on the calendar.

Correlation is still broken. Apple closed near the upper edge of its expected move while the S&P tanked into the close.

Money keeps rotating into Costco, Adobe, and Microsoft instead of leaving the market entirely. No one is buying hedges, which tells me complacency has not cracked yet.

Markets are a heavily leveraged carry trade. If rates keep climbing, deleveraging starts whether anyone likes it or not.

I tried to put positions on today and had a tough time getting filled. Bid offer spreads were wider than I have seen in weeks.

If we get a bounce on Monday, I plan to fade it. In tonight’s video I walk through exactly why and the levels I am watching on bonds, oil, and the dollar to confirm the setup.

👉 Click here to watch the full breakdown before Monday’s open

To your success,

Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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