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Exclusive Article

Is McCormick a Steal Ahead of Game-Changing Unilever Deal?

Submitted by Thomas Hughes. Publication Date: 6/29/2026. 

Four McCormick branded whole spice jars displayed on a wooden cutting board in a kitchen setting.

Key Points

  • McCormick’s proposed $15.7 billion combination with Unilever’s food business has driven shares down 50% from record highs, creating a potential value opportunity.
  • Q2 results showed 16.7% revenue growth and adjusted EPS of 80 cents, beating estimates and supported by organic growth and the McCormick de Mexico acquisition.
  • The company’s 4% dividend yield is backed by nearly 40 consecutive years of annual increases, offering investors income as they await a merger catalyst.
  • Special Report: The company SpaceX cannot operate without

McCormick & Company’s (NYSE: MKC)share price looks like a steal in mid-2026, down 50% from record highs ahead of a potentially game-changing deal.

The proposed combination with Unilever’s food business could triple the size of the business, generate shareholder value, and provide enough cash flow to support balance sheet quality and capital returns.

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Balance sheet safety is one reason the share price has fallen so sharply. The transaction includes a $15.7 billion cash payment to Unilever, with McCormick relying on cash on hand and new debt to fund that portion of the deal. That added debt is a major reason investors are focused on the company’s post-close leverage.

The bad news is that McCormick’s leverage ratio will rise to a higher-than-desired 4.0x EBITDA, but there is good news to offset it.

Already carrying investment-grade debt ratings from all major ratings agencies, McCormick’s executives have expressed a commitment to reducing debt quickly. Plans are in place to drive leverage below the targeted 3x level within two years, which could provide a tailwind for shareholder value.

High-Quality McCormick & Company Presents Deep Value in 2026

As it stands, McCormick is in a healthy financial position and continues to grow its business. In this environment, the stock’s roughly 8x current-year earnings multiple is a deep discount to historical norms.

Typically trading in the mid-20x range, McCormick’s valuation suggests that meaningful multiple expansion is possible over time, compounding the impact of growth. The company is expected to sustain organic growth without the merger and may even accelerate afterward. Estimates as of late June suggest valuations are well below long-term forecasts, setting the stage for several hundred basis points of stock price gains over the next three to five years.

Analyst trends also help explain MKC’s price decline and the long-term outlook.

While price targets have fallen, the low end now aligns with late-June trading, suggesting a floor may be in place.

Within that range, the consensus Hold rating comes with a 46% buy-side bias, which, given the 13 analysts covering the stock, lends some conviction to the outlook.

In this scenario, MKC could rebound at any time with the right catalyst and will likely trade sideways until one emerges. Upcoming catalysts include milestones tied to the Unilever merger, such as the expected announcement of a European secondary listing location and regulatory approvals in the United States and United Kingdom.

Institutional trends highlight the value and help underpin market support as June nears its end. Institutions own nearly 80% of the stock and have accumulated shares at a semi-aggressive pace over the trailing 12 months, despite some distribution in Q1 2026. The key detail is that accumulation resumed in Q2 at an aggressive $10-to-$1 pace and will likely remain supportive of the stock, given the company’s core strengths and the value-creating merger opportunity.

McCormick stock chart showing how volume ramp coincides with institutional accumulation ahead of the proposed Unilever merger.

McCormick Outperformance: Organic and Acquisitions Shine Through

McCormick & Company had a solid Q2, with growth underpinned by organic strength and the acquisition of McCormick de Mexico. Revenue grew 16.7%, with 1.7% organic sales growth driven by a 2.2% increase in average prices. Both segments reported strength, led by a 2.9% organic increase in flavor solutions, with acquisition-related growth boosting both segments.

Margin news is also positive. The acquisition is driving meaningful back-end consolidation and cost savings, leading to improved gross and operating margins. Adjusted gross margin improved by 270 bps, and adjusted operating margin improved by 180 bps, leaving adjusted earnings per share (EPS) at 80 cents, up 11 cents year over year (YOY) and 11 cents, or 1600 bps, better than expected.

Catalysts and a Risk-Reducing, High-Yielding Dividend

Guidance remains a catalyst for the share price because the company merely reaffirmed it despite FQ2 strength. The market assumes the guidance is cautious and expects the Q2 momentum to continue in the next release.

McCormick’s dividend is another risk-reducing factor for investors. The low share price results in a high yield, approximately 4% with shares around $50, and it is a reliable payment.

The company is a Dividend Achiever with nearly 40 years of consecutive annual distribution increases, and it is on track to reach the 50-year mark and be crowned a Dividend King.

McCormick’s position as a consumer staples company gives it some defensive qualities, but the stock still faces risks tied to pricing, volume, consumer trade-down behavior, and merger execution. Consumer headwinds have shoppers trading down on center-of-plate costs in favor of flavors. Cheap cuts and starches work well with bold, zesty, and spicy flavors, and McCormick is a leading source. Execution risk is the bigger concern, as delays could weigh on the stock’s price. The worst-case scenario is that the merger is completed, but synergies fail to deliver the desired results.

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Published by RJ Hamster

I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis. I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God. I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree. Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons. I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA. While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon.. In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God. We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987). From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting. Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982. I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects. In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston. In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018. Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia. In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey. As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova. Love and God Bless, Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi

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