Friday, September 11
Welcome to The Pregame Lineup, a weekday newsletter that gets you up to speed on everything you need to know for today’s games, while catching you up on fun and interesting stories you might have missed. Today’s edition is brought to you by David Adler.
We might see our first two clinches tonight!
The Rays can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Astros (7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV). The Brewers can clinch one with a win over the Reds (7:45 p.m. ET, Apple TV).
(Both teams can also clinch with a few combinations of losses by other teams … you can see those details here if you’re curious.)
But even though we’ve finally reached clinch territory, there are plenty of postseason races still up for grabs — including four of the six division races.
The Brewers basically have the NL Central locked up, and ditto for the Dodgers in the NL West, but every single other division still has a real chance to change hands before the season is over.
So let’s rank ’em. Here’s what we think are the most likely division races to flip.
4) AL West
Current leader: Astros (Rangers 3 games back)
This is the only one of the four divisions where the second-place team doesn’t have any games left against the team in front of them. The Rangers and Astros have played all their head-to-head matchups already (a season series Houston dominated, by the way). That makes a comeback much harder to pull off for Texas … which is also a sub-.500 team right now at 72-75. That doesn’t inspire a ton of faith.
3) NL East
Current leader: Braves (Phillies 4 games back)
The biggest lead in any of these divisions belongs to the Braves, who are four up on the Phillies and have led the East since April 8.But the Phils’ best chance to come back is right now. They play their final series against the Braves — three games in Atlanta — starting tonight. If they can somehow pull off a sweep, the Braves’ lead will be down to one, and all the pressure will be on them over the final 12 games.
2) AL East
Current leader: Rays (Yankees 3 games back)
The Rays and Yankees have four head-to-head games remaining — that series starts Sept. 22at Yankee Stadium — which gives the Bronx Bombers the best direct opportunity to chase down the team in front of them. That one series could swing the AL East title in the Yankees’ favor … but they’ll have to play better against Tampa Bay than they have so far (New York is 3-6 against the Rays this season).
1) AL Central
Current leader: White Sox (Guardians 1 1/2 games back)
The White Sox have the slimmest margin of any division leader, they’re already one of this year’s biggest surprises, and the Guardians have been here before … and pulled off a much more dramatic division comeback than this one would be. Remember, just last year, Cleveland erased an 11-game deficit to the Tigers over their final 23 games to win the Central on the last day of the season. That included going 5-1 in six games against Detroit down the stretch.
Now the Guards have a chance to do something similar to the White Sox, with three final games against them in Cleveland starting on Monday. So if we had to pick just one division race to flip, it’s this one. FanGraphs’ playoff odds back that up, giving the Guardians better than a one-in-three chance of winning the division.
SERIES TO WATCH THIS WEEKEND
There are a lot of big series this weekend. These are the ones we’re watching.
1) Phillies at Braves
Tonight’s game: 7:15 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
There’s no bigger series than this one. It could decide the NL East. The Phillies and Braves split four games in Philly last weekend, and now they play their final three of the year in Atlanta. The results of this series will have big implications in both the division and Wild Card races.
2) Mets at Yankees
Tonight’s game: 7:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
The Subway Series begins tonight on the 25th anniversary of 9/11. This will be an emotional one for the two New York teams, who will wear first responder caps with team logos during tonight’s game at Yankee Stadium.
3) Rangers at D-backs
Tonight’s game: 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Both these teams are battling for a playoff spot, so this should be a hard-fought series. The Rangers are three games back of the Astros in the AL West and two games back of the Guardians in the AL Wild Card race. The D-backs are a half-game out of an NL Wild Card spot behind the division-rival Padres.
4) Astros at Rays
Tonight’s game: 7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
The Astros are trying to hold off the Rangers to win their division, but the Rays are playing to clinch a postseason berth and continue their push toward the No. 1 seed in the AL. On top of the playoff implications, this series is also a showcase for star sluggers Yordan Alvarez and Junior Caminero, who are both MVP hopefuls.
A METS SHIRT FLIES IN IRELAND
At a 9/11 memorial all the way in Ireland, a weather-worn Mets shirt still hangs in honor of a fallen firefighter. Matt Monagan tells the story:
There’s something striking about the shirt when you first see a photo of it.
It’s not that it’s flashy or has some distinctive mark or is really out of the ordinary at all.
It’s just that it’s there.
Flying in the wind atop a grassy green hillside in Kinsale, Ireland. Slightly tattered from the salt blowing off the nearby Celtic Sea. Wrapped around a tree planted for Michael Cawley, one of 343 firefighters killed on Sept. 11 and honored at this memorial more than 3,000 miles from where the Twin Towers made their final stand 25 years ago.
What’s it doing there? What’s the story behind it? Who was Michael Cawley?
And exactly how big of a Mets fan was he?
“Mets fans are all fanatical,” his brother, Brendan Cawley, told me over the phone. “Dare I say, Michael was on another level.”
Read the rest of the story here >>
ALL ABOARD THE TOLLE TRAIN
Everyone loves Payton Tolle. Well, maybe not the hitters who have to step in against this human freight train.
When the Red Sox rising star — one of the most important players to Boston’s playoff push — isn’t channeling his energy into pushups on the mound, he’s channeling it into the baseball. Tolle’s whole delivery is explosive. Let us explain.
Tolle combines elite extension — that is, he drives down the mound to release the ball far in front of the rubber — with a low arm slot and extremely wide horizontal release point. All of that adds up to create maximum power-pitching efficiency.
We break it all down right here, but let us leave you with a GIF that might give you a sense of what it’s like to see the Tolle Train leaving the station:
CAN MLB’S BEST DEFENSE MAKE HISTORY?
Yesterday we mentioned how the Cubs are the best fielding team in baseball by a long shot.
Here’s a fun possibility that might stem from that: The Cubs have the chance to become the first team ever to sweep the outfield Gold Glove Awards.
No AL or NL team has ever won all three outfield Gold Gloves in the same season. But between Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field, Ian Happ in left and Seiya Suzuki in right, every Chicago outfielder has a strong case this year.
PCA is a lock — he’s having maybe one of the best defensive seasons of all time — but Happ and Suzuki’s odds look pretty good, too. Max Ralph breaks down the Cubs’ chances here.
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RJ Hamster 