Monday, October 19
Welcome to The Pregame Lineup, a weekday newsletter that gets you up to speed on everything you need to know, brought to you by David Adler. Today, can the Rays keep their “heater” going (pun intended) and punch their ticket to the Fall Classic?
By the end of tonight, we’ll either have our World Series matchup … or a Game 7. Which one? That comes down to Fastball Freddy.
Freddy Peralta has the chance to pitch the Rays into the World Series — against his old team, the Brewers, who traded him away just nine months ago.
If Freddy’s fastball is zipping in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series, he can close out the Guardians and set up a heavyweight Fall Classic showdown between the No. 1 team in the American League and the No. 1 team in the National League. If it’s not, we’ll be headed for the best thing in playoff baseball: a winner-take-all Game 7, which would be tomorrow night at The Trop. (So it’s kind of a win-win, the way we see it.)
Peralta’s been one of the most interesting pitchers to watch this postseason because of how the Rays’ pitching lab has helped him get back to his roots down the stretch and into October. Pretty much everything went wrong for Peralta with the Mets this season; pretty much everything’s gone right since he got to Tampa Bay.
Now he has a 0.79 ERA in three postseason outings. The Rays have won all three games he’s pitched in, including Game 2 of the ALCS (when he started) and Game 4 (when he relieved). Peralta has yet to allow a run to the Guardians.
If the Brewers are watching and waiting tonight, the guy they see on the mound should look awfully familiar. Peralta earned the nickname “Fastball Freddy” during his years leading the Milwaukee rotation, and after he lost the feel for his signature pitch in his brief stint in New York, Freddy’s Fastball is back with a vengeance in the postseason.
His velo is up. Peralta’s four-seamer averaged under 95 mph his entire time with the Mets. In these playoffs, it’s averaging 97 mph and touching 99-plus.
His heater’s more explosive. Peralta has added two inches of “rise” and two inches of run on his fastball compared to his midseason doldrums, which helps his fastball take off past the hitter. He’s generating 18 inches of rising movement in the playoffs, which is a lot.
He’s driving down the mound better. Compared to his low point with the Mets, Peralta is releasing his fastball two inches closer to the plate — which makes it seem even faster to the hitter.
He’s letting the fastball rip. Peralta is throwing his four-seamer 69% of the time in the playoffs, which is a huge jump from the regular season and gives him the heaviest fastball usage among postseason starters — even more than Jacob Misiorowski.
Peralta’s four-seamer has been the most valuable pitch in the 2026 playoffs. That’s Fastball Freddy at his finest.
THE WORLD SERIES YOU WANT TO SEE
On Friday we asked you which World Series matchup you’d rather see: Rays-Brewers, or Guardians-Brewers.
You voted … for the Guards, 57% to 43% over the Rays.
That’d be a matchup of the two teams with the longest World Series championship droughts — 77 years for Cleveland, and 57 years for the Brewers (who have never won).
It wasn’t a good weekend for you Guardians voters, though, since they lost both games. Now we need them to force a Game 7.
EVERYTHING TO KNOW FOR ALCS GAME 6
Here’s all the info and key storylines to watch as the Rays try to clinch their spot in the World Series, and the Guardians try to force a Game 7.
Guardians at Rays (Rays lead series 3-2)
8 p.m. ET on TBS/truTV/UniMas/HBO Max
The series so far:
Trailing two games to one entering the weekend, the Rays stormed back to win two straight in Cleveland. Now they’re headed home one win away from the AL pennant, after another gem from ace Drew Rasmussenin Game 5.
Today’s pitching matchup: Shawn Armstrong (Guardians) vs. Freddy Peralta (Rays)
Key storylines:
Can Yandy back up his guarantee?
The quote of the night after Game 5 came from Rays star Yandy Díaz, who boldly guaranteed the Rays will win Game 6 and clinch the series. “It all ends tomorrow,” Díaz said through interpreter Kevin Vera. “We’re going to win tomorrow.” Now the pressure’s on Tampa Bay to go out there and back it up. If the history of Game 6 guarantees in sports means anything, Yandy might hit three home runs.
Can the Guardians get the ball back to Gavin Williams?
The Guardians had to use seven pitchers on Saturday and six pitchers yesterday, and tonight they have another bullpen game on tap. If they can somehow pull out a win here with their season on the line, they’ll have their ace Williams for Game 7. They’d have to like their chances then. But do they have enough arms left to get there?
JAPAN’S MVP IS COMING
Teruaki Sato, who’s the reigning MVP of Nippon Professional Baseball and just won a Triple Crown, is coming to the Majors next season.
Sato’s NPB club, the Hanshin Tigers, just announced that they will post the star lefty slugger this offseason, which will allow Sato to sign with an MLB club.
The 27-year-old third baseman batted .306 with 39 home runs and 106 RBIs this season, leading NPB’s Central League in all three categories. That followed a breakout 2025 season in which Sato batted .277 with 40 homers and 102 RBIs and was named the league’s MVP.
Sato will be one of the most interesting bats on the free-agent market — especially after the success of Munetaka Murakami (the last NPB player to win a Triple Crown before Sato) in his first MLB season this year. Teams like the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies have already been linked to Sato.
See more details on Sato being posted here >>
IS THAT BRUCE SUTTER OUT THERE?
See that up there? That’s the face of the most dominant fireman of the 2026 postseason.
Forty-four years ago, the Brewers had to stare down Bruce Sutter in the Fall Classic. Now there’s Aaron Ashby — but this time, he’s on their side.
As the Brewers prepare for their first World Series appearance since 1982, Jared Greenspan takes a look at the most important reliever of Milwaukee’s playoff run so far.
Not only has Ashby allowed zero runs in his six postseason appearances … and not only did he get the series-clinching win over the Padres in the NLDS and the series-clinching save against the Dodgers in the NLCS … but he’s eating a ridiculous amount of innings out of the ‘pen.
Ashby has gone more than one inning in five of his six outings, including a couple of three-inning appearances. He’s been a throwback to the great multi-inning relievers of old, only he’s pitching for the Brew Crew instead of against them. Read more about it here >>
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