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A different day in the market… Weighing the consequences of war… The Fed is back in the picture… ‘Higher for longer’ is making a comeback… Has anyone seen Kevin Warsh?… Jensen Huang’s latest prediction… AI-proof fortresses…

Oil up, stocks up…

That’s a different picture from what we’ve seen for much of the past two weeks. Oil prices initially spiked as war broke out in Iran, while bond yields rose and stocks sold off.

But today, hundreds of oil tankers remain parked in the Persian Gulf, and oil prices rose around 3%. Yet bond yields actually fell some, and the major U.S. stock indexes were up across the board. Energy stocks led again, but most major S&P 500 Index sectors were higher.

If you’re optimistic, this is perhaps another “less bad” sign to note in the market… Some investors imagine progress toward some kind of resolution in the immediate conflict, as more top Iranian leaders have reportedly been killed over the past day in methodical attacks.

On the other hand…

Nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen in the Middle East next. That’s par for the course for millennia in some respects. But there’s no denying that right now, this war has led to the largest global oil-supply disruption in decades – or ever, by some standards.

Oil prices are up 40% from the start of the conflict… and could go higher.

Traffic has been virtually stopped in the critical and Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz for more than two weeks (except Iran’s own ships).

Yesterday, a handful of tankers trickled out thanks to apparent agreements with some Iranian leaders. But hundreds more remain anchored in or just outside the Persian Gulf, their cargo coming or going nowhere.

In Qatar, a facility handling around 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports shut down two weeks ago and will take weeks more to come back online.

And while everyone is focused on oil and gas, other commodities that transit through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz have seen their prices spike, too…

These include fertilizer, which is critical to global food supply and prices. At least a quarter of the global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. And prices are up as much as 40%, just like oil. Here’s Stacy Simunek, president of the Oklahoma Farm Bureau…

We cannot grow without it. There is absolutely no way you get around it… I’ve had many farmers tell me I can’t get it until April 1st, which starts putting them past the window of application time.

So already, the war in Iran is going to influence the economy in the weeks and months and years ahead. If it goes longer than the best-case scenarios laid out by the White House, trade and business will suffer even more.

And now it’s time to think about the Federal Reserve again, too…

The central bank began its latest two-day policy meeting today. The Fed and Chair Jerome Powell will share any decisions and have a post-meeting press conference tomorrow afternoon.

And while Powell’s time as chair is winding down, the stage is set for another potential Fed “pivot” – and maybe not the one you expect…

Last week, we covered rising commodities prices and associated inflation concerns. As we wrote…

Already, the Cleveland Fed – which runs an inflation “nowcast” – projects the CPI will climb back up to near 2.9% year over year for March’s reading.

And if the tensions with Iran send oil prices back to $100 per barrel in the next couple weeks, energy prices could drive inflation higher… which wouldn’t be good news for the broader economy.

One estimate from Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok is that $100 oil would boost headline inflation by 0.7 percentage points. That would put it closer to 4% than 3%, to say nothing of the Fed’s supposed 2% target.

With that said, let me alert you to a possible new shift in the market.

Investors are giving up hope for rate cuts…

And it sure looks like the war in Iran and its inflation consequences are the trigger…

We like to look at the federal-funds futures market for bond market expectations. And traders aren’t expecting the Fed to do much of anything significant tomorrow or at its meeting in late April, the last one before Powell’s term as chair is set to expire.

The short-term expectations are and have been for the Fed’s benchmark rate range to remain at 3.5% to 3.75% for the next two months.

But here’s where things start to get interesting…

By June, a new Fed chair is supposed to be in place. And it’s well known that President Donald Trump wants a new chair who’ll cut rates.

And yet, the market’s expectations for a rate cut in June have dwindled to barely 20%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. That’s down from 50% a month ago and even higher odds before that.

‘Higher for longer’ is making a comeback…

At the same time, expectations for rates to be “higher for longer” for the rest of the year have also grown. Fed-funds futures traders have 50% odds on rates holding steady in September, and they’re giving more than a 40% chance for them to do the same in October.

Another indicator from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta tells a similar and even more significant story.

The Atlanta Fed tracks bond-trading action to assess market probability. Its tracker now shows that the bond market has started to price in the probability of a rate hike by the Fed’s meeting in June rather than a rate cut.

As Ryan Detrick from financial-services firm Carson Group pointed out on the social platform X this morning…

Has anyone seen Kevin Warsh?…

Meanwhile, we haven’t heard a peep out of Trump’s nominee for Fed chair. Warsh’s confirmation faces at least some opposition in Congress, and he could throw a curveball into everything when he starts talking during that process.

Maybe he’ll double down on being the “low interest rate” person the president has promised, and inflation (and interest rate) expectations will take off even higher. Just yesterday, Trump pushed for an “emergency rate cut” in public comments while criticizing Powell again.

Or maybe Warsh’s confirmation will stall, and Powell or someone else already in the Fed with a “higher for longer” bent becomes chair in the interim.

Or maybe the war wraps up quickly… oil and other commodity prices “drop like a rock” – as Trump predicted today… and war-related inflation doesn’t show up all that much, making it easy to justify lower rates.

In any case, here’s what we want you to know and consider…

Even if the war ends and Warsh becomes the new Fed chair, a new inflation battle may just be beginning. It’s a risk, at the very least.

And it looks like the bond market is just starting to make bets on this regime change… and that stocks haven’t responded yet.

After all, this isn’t what “everybody” is expecting. It’s funny how the market so often works like this… with bond investors picking up on trends faster than the stock market.

If rates don’t fall, stocks won’t get the juice that many investors have counted on. And if rates rise, stocks can fall. Warren Buffett has described interest rates as “gravity” for asset prices. The unprepared could be in for a shock.

Nvidia’s ‘$1 trillion’ prediction…

On another note, AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) kicked off its annual developer conference yesterday. It’s what some call the “Woodstock of AI.”

And in his keynote address, CEO Jensen Huang unveiled the company’s latest offerings, including an AI chip and a new platform aimed at boosting AI in outer space (yes, really).

“Space computing, the final frontier, has arrived,” Huang said. “With our partners, we’re extending Nvidia beyond our planet – boldly taking intelligence where it’s never gone before.”

But what really grabbed headlines was Huang’s projection for the next few years on Earth…

Huang said that Nvidia now expects $1 trillion in orders for its Blackwell and Vera Rubin AI infrastructure offerings through 2027. That’s double the projection from last year’s conference.

And investors loved the news – at first… The stock spiked more than 2% yesterday afternoon following Huang’s reveal. Then it fell, ending lower than it was before Huang took the stage.

Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi explained why. While $1 trillion may seem huge, Wall Street was already expecting something like this over the next couple of years. From Sozzi…

For context, this compares to consensus data center revenue estimates for 2025-2027 of ~$989 billion.

Despite the buzzy $1 trillion headline, some of this was expected, and the revenue growth rate from 2026 into 2027 for Nvidia could flatten out.

Similarly, as we wrote yesterday, Nvidia shares have traded sideways since making a new high last October.

A limiting factor for growth: ‘flattening’ energy…

As we’ve written a few times in previous Digests, AI data centers – a top Nvidia customer – use huge amounts of energy. Their energy demand has more than doubled this decade. Just take a look at this chart from the February 18 Digest…

But our current energy grid isn’t robust enough to meet the demand. That problem has increased electricity prices. And it can limit the growth of AI companies and businesses using the technology. For instance, as Huang said in his address…

If they could just get more capacity, they could generate more tokens [the fundamental “units” of text or data that an AI large language model produces], their revenues would go up.

More capacity is on the way, as we wrote in February, but it’ll take time. Even the Department of Energy’s recent $1.9 billion in funding to expand the energy grid won’t help right away.

Data-center development is taking a hit as a result…

Every quarter, research and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie releases a report on data-center construction projects. And its most recent report, from last week, flashes a big warning sign for the AI boom…

From the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2025, data-center capacity additions fell by half. And that’s something Wood Mackenzie expects to continue into 2026. From the report…

We expect capex growth from the largest developers, including the established hyperscalers, to slow in 2026 for the first time since 2023, to US$94 billion, or 58% of last year’s growth.

That comes at a time when the hyperscalers expect to spend more than $600 billion and Nvidia projects $1 trillion in cumulative sales over the next two years. At the same time, new data-center capacity growth might actually slow.

That’s not a good sign if it’s the start of a longer trend. If hyperscalers continue to struggle to get the capacity they need, they’ll have to pull back on their investments. And if that happens, investors might not take it so well.

But no one would invest hundreds of billions of dollars into AI servers and chips without the electricity to power them.

And the AI ecosystem is interconnected, with companies trading equity stakes for orders. All it takes is one or two canceled agreements to leave a huge hole in multiple companies’ income statements.

Nvidia’s $1 trillion sales goal is the most at risk in that scenario. While AI is still a big story and a market driver today, be careful moving ahead…

Plus, there are other places to put your money that have little or nothing to do with AI and can still outperform the market.

A new index of AI-proof investments…

In the March issue of Retirement Millionaire, sent to subscribers last Wednesday, editor and MarketWise CEO Dr. David “Doc” Eifrig unveiled his “Niche Fortress Index.”

And it reminds me of a theme Doc wrote about at the end of last year – where to find a job, as in the physical trades. As Doc wrote about his Niche Fortress Index in the most recent issue of Retirement Millionaire…

It’s made of stocks that operate in different parts of the industrial economy, but that all share similar traits…

They have no natural predators… They provide critical equipment and services the economy cannot function without… And they are leaders in their respective niches.

Put simply, these companies are ones that provide “boring” but essential parts of the economy. These stocks are a far cry from the outer space-based AI infrastructure that Nvidia just promoted yesterday.

More from Doc…

We’re talking about filters for construction vehicles, precision welding equipment, hydraulic impact wrenches, and heavy-duty enclosures that keep wiring safe.

They operate out of nondescript brick factories in the Midwest or in quiet industrial parks in Europe. They don’t have visionary CEOs who trend on social media. They just have engineers who have spent 30 years perfecting one very specific, very difficult task.

And they all dominate a niche that no one else wants to enter.

That makes these companies great businesses to invest in. And they’ve handily beaten the market over the past 20 years, as Doc shared…

Altogether, Doc and his team put 20 companies in the Niche Fortress Index. Five of them are already in the Retirement Millionaire model portfolio. And Doc considers all five to be strong buys today.

Retirement Millionaire subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can read Doc’s full breakdown of the Niche Fortress Index, get the five names in the index that are buys today, and read a review of the rest of the Retirement Millionaire model portfolio right here.

In this month’s issue, Doc also updated existing portfolio positions and told subscribers to book gains of around 270% (30% annualized), 113% (18% annualized), and roughly 29% (around 20% annualized), plus a 107% gain in just four months.

If you don’t have access to Retirement Millionaire already, click here for more information and to get started today.

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March 18: Gold’s Next Surge?

Gold’s recent run-up has already been nothing short of historic… But it’s far from over. In fact, we expect that gold is headed to $10,000 an ounce – and even that might be too low an estimate. One expert has even issued a $20,000 price target. But however high gold ultimately goes… it’s critical you know how to take advantage of its next big move… by checking out the BEST possible gold stock you should buy immediately.

New 52-week highs (as of 3/16/26): BAE Systems (BAESY), BP (BP), Chord Energy (CHRD), Ciena (CIEN), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Duke Energy (DUK), EOG Resources (EOG), Equinor (EQNR), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and ExxonMobil (XOM).

In today’s mailbag, feedback on yesterday’s Digest … which compared the current fears about oil prices and market behavior during and after past Persian Gulf conflicts… Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

“I don’t think the comparison to the 1980s is a valid one. Iran today is much better armed and prepared than the 1980s. If the U.S. Navy enters the Hormuz then the ships will be attacked and potentially sunk.

“Plus there is so much oil that has been taken offline by the Iranian attacks that cannot be replaced for months, if at all. I think the better comparison is with the 1973 oil embargo, oil went from $3 to $12 – i.e., a 300% increase.

“Even when the embargo was lifted the price remained at $12. The stock market plummeted [approximately] 50% and did not bottom until December 1974.” – Subscriber S.J.I.

All the best (and happy St. Patrick’s Day),

Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
March 17, 2026

Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations

Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT
Microsoft11/11/101,346.4%Retirement MillionaireMSFT
Microsoft02/10/121,290.9%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryADP
Automatic Data Processing10/09/08809.9%Extreme ValueBRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09782.9%Retirement MillionaireSII
Sprott01/11/18685.1%Extreme ValueGOOGL
Alphabet12/15/16653.5%Retirement MillionaireCIEN
Ciena10/20/22639.9%Stansberry Innovations ReportWRB
W.R. Berkley03/15/12637.0%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryHSY
Hershey12/07/07567.8%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryALS-T
Altius Minerals03/26/09566.2%Extreme Value

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.

Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc3Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter1Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel

Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations

Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationWSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,898.9%Crypto CapitalBTC/USD
Bitcoin11/27/181,891.8%Crypto CapitalONE/USD
Harmony12/16/191,013.2%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD
Polygon02/26/21643.9%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21582.7%Crypto Capital

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.

Stansberry Research Hall of Fame

Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.

^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.

Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame

Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital

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© 2026 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or stansberryresearch.com.

Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors.

Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.

This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility.

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California has been setting new requirements for what licensed professionals are expected to teach inside their own continuing education… 

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INVESTOR ALERT: Tiny “$3 AI Wonder Stock” on the Verge of Blasting Off (From Traders Agency)

Carvana’s 5-for-1 Split: Green Light for a New Growth Era

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson on March 16, 2026 

Key Points

• Carvana’s decision follows record-breaking sales volume and a significant return to profitability last year.
• The stock split aims to make share ownership more psychologically accessible for retail investors and Carvana’s team members.
• Wall Street analysts have a positive outlook, with consensus price targets suggesting considerable potential upside from current trading levels.
• Special Report: Markets Just Reset — See the First Small Caps Reacting(From Market Maven Insights)

Carvana’s (NYSE: CVNA) board of directors recently approved its first-ever 5-for-1 forward stock split, a milestone that signals a significant new chapter for the online auto retailer. The market responded enthusiastically, with shares climbing in the session following the announcement. This positive reception underscores a broader sentiment: Carvana’s strategic move is much more than an accounting adjustment.

For a company that has navigated a remarkable turnaround, the stock split serves as a confident signal. It represents a strategic pivot from a period of intense recovery to a new phase focused on aggressive, forward-looking growth. This decision, made from a position of renewed strength, offers a compelling look into Carvana’s future and what it could mean for investors.

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From Brink to Breakout Performance

To understand the significance of the stock split, it is crucial to examine the foundation on which it was built. Not long ago, Carvana faced significant operational and financial headwinds, including a heavy debt load and questions about its path to profitability, leading to serious concerns about its future. Carvana, however, has since engineered one of the more dramatic turnarounds in the recent market. Through sharp operational execution and a successful debt restructuring, it has emerged stronger than ever.

The proof is in Carvana’s 2025 financial results. Carvana achieved stunning growth and record-breaking profitability, silencing many of its critics. The key highlights provide a clear picture of this resurgence:

• Record Sales Volume: Carvana sold 596,641 retail units, a 43% increase year-over-year.
• Surging Revenue: Full-year revenue soared to $20.3 billion, a 49% jump from the previous year.
• A Return to Profitability: Carvana reported a full-year net income of $1.9 billion, a stark reversal from previous losses.

The fourth-quarter 2025 performance was particularly impressive, with earnings per share of $4.22. This figure handily beat analyst consensus estimates of just $1.10, showcasing an operational engine firing on all cylinders. This financial health provides the essential context for the stock split, framing it as a well-earned victory lap for a company that has fought hard for the winner’s circle.

Why a Stock Split, and Why Now?

Subject to shareholder approval at the Annual Shareholder Meeting on May 5, 2026, the stock split will take effect on May 6, 2026. After this date, investors will receive four additional shares for every share they currently own. While the number of shares increases fivefold, each share’s price will be reduced to one-fifth its previous value. For example, a stock trading at $300 per share would trade at $60 per share after the split. The total value of an investor’s holding remains unchanged by the split itself.

The primary strategy behind this type of strategic share price move is to enhance accessibility. A lower per-share price can have a powerful psychological impact on investors. For many retail investors, a $60 stock feels far more approachable and affordable than a $300 stock, even though Carvana’s underlying value is the same. This can significantly broaden the investor base.

Carvana’s leadership endorsed this strategy, with Chief Financial Officer Mark Jenkins confirming that the stock split, the first in Carvana’s history, was intended to keep the stock “accessible to all of our team members.” This effort to simplify employee ownership strengthens a culture of confidence and aligns the workforce with shareholder interests. The move, executed from a position of financial strength, is a deliberate and confident signal to the market, and its timing is particularly significant.

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Primed for a New Wave of Interest

Beyond making the stock more accessible, the split could catalyze Carvana’s next phase of growth. Carvana has made it clear that its focus is on scaling its operations and capturing a larger share of the massive used car market. This ambition is underscored by CEO Ernie Garcia’s long-term goal of selling 3 million vehicles annually.

Carvana is already making tangible progress toward this vision. A key example is the recent expansion of its same-day delivery service into the vast and competitive Los Angeles market. This move not only enhances its customer value proposition but also demonstrates its improving logistics network and ability to execute in critical regions. A broader investor base and the increased trading liquidity that often follows a stock split can provide a stable tailwind for a company pursuing an aggressive growth strategy.

Furthermore, Carvana’s stock is known for its high beta of 3.60. Beta measures a stock’s price volatility relative to the overall market. A beta above 1.0, like Carvana’s, indicates it’s more volatile than the market average, a trait that often attracts momentum traders seeking significant price movements. By lowering the price of entry, the split could re-engage this class of investors, potentially driving a new wave of trading activity and interest in the stock.

The Road Ahead: A Green Light from Analysts

Carvana’s 5-for-1 stock split serves as a powerful symbol of a completed turnaround, a strategic tool to broaden its investor base, and a catalyst designed to fuel its next chapter of ambitious growth. The move reflects a leadership team that is confident in its operational execution and financial stability, and it shifts its narrative from recovery to market expansion.

This bullish sentiment is echoed on Wall Street. Among 25 financial analysts covering Carvana, the consensus rating is a Moderate Buy. More tellingly, the average analyst price target sits at $440.59. This target suggests potential upside of over 46% from the stock’s current trading level, indicating that many industry experts believe there is room for Carvana’s valuation to grow further.

For investors, Carvana’s stock split may be viewed as a clear line in the sand. It marks the end of its recovery phase and signals the confident beginning of its renewed push for market dominance.

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Dear Reader,

Right now, all eyes are on Iran.

Missiles. Drones. An oil blockade. Tensions throughout the Middle East.

And yes — it matters.

But while the world is glued to events in Iran, something far more consequential is about to quietly play out right here on American soil.

The U.S. Army has been given a new mission.

The Department of Energy is prepared to back them up.

And President Trump has ordered them to act — under Executive Order 14299.

This isn’t about bombs or drones…

It’s about a bold, new joint-project that could reshape America’s future for decades.

Under Trump’s executive order, the Army and DoE are about to deploy a secret weapon to win the AI race — a cutting-edge fuel called TRISO.

It’s about to change both energy and AI as we know them.

The ENTIRE global energy sector — a $3.7 TRILLION industry — will be impacted.

And the AI race will take a huge leap in America’s favor.

Iran may dominate today’s headlines…

But this is the story that will dominate your portfolio.

Those who get in on this opportunity ASAP could turn a small stake into a massive windfall.

But you must move on it now.

The first TRISO power plant is expected to go operational before July 4, 2026.

Click here now to see the full story.

To Your Profits,

Adam O’Dell

Chief Investment Strategist, Money & Markets

Today’s editorial pick for you

The Smart Investor’s Guide to Overheated Volatility

Posted On Mar 04, 2026 by Ian Cooper

Keep an eye on the stretched CBOE Volatility Index (CBOE: VIX). At 26.33, the VIX is now challenging October 2025 trade war highs. However, this time, it’s uncertainty about the joint United States and Israel military campaign against Iran that is driving volatility higher.

Table of Contents

• Eventually, the Situation Will Cool Off
• Take Advantage of Volatility With These ETFs
• Make Volatility Your Friend

For one, the conflict appears to be widening. Drones hit the U.S. embassy in Riyadh. The State Department ordered evacuations at facilities in Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan. Hezbollah attacked Tel Aviv. And there are concerns about how long Gulf states can keep themselves safe from Iranian attacks. Plus, President Trump just said the conflict could continue for another four weeks, which raises uncertainty, which markets hate.

In addition, “Market anxiety ratcheted higher overnight amid concerns that a decapitated and leaderless Iranian government and military will execute a prolonged retaliatory response aimed at sowing chaos throughout the region by targeting key economic and energy infrastructure for weeks to come,” said Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge, as quoted by CNBC. 

Until there’s clarity, markets could slip even more.  Except for oil, which could easily gush higher.

Eventually, the Situation Will Cool Off

This too will pass. It’s easy for investors to say, but harder to internalize in volatile markets. However, right now, even though tensions are sky-high, the VIX is telling us that fear is too hot. And when the temperature goes down in the Middle East, we’ll be offered an opportunity on the short side of volatility. 

In fact, if you look at the VIX dating back to early 2022, you can see that with every spike, RSI, MACD and Williams’ %R tell us when the VIX is likely to pivot lower. We saw that happen in April 2025, December 2024, August 2024, April 2024, October 2023, March 2023, October 2022, September 2022, and also in May 2022.  Each time the VIX peaked with those three indicators, buying calls on the DIAs, QQQs and the SPY typically paid off well.

One of the best ways to trade an overheated fear gauge is by jumping into inverse VIX ETFs, which move higher when the VIX moves lower.

Take Advantage of Volatility With These ETFs

Here are two of the top ETFs to consider when the VIX moves lower:

The ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (BATS: SVXY) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one-half the inverse (-0.5x) of the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, as noted by ProShares.com. 

Specifically, the fund tends to profit from decreases in the expected volatility of the S&P 500, as measured by the prices of VIX futures contracts. The S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index has historically been less volatile than the VIX but significantly more volatile than the S&P 500. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.95%.

Another option is the -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (BATS: SVIX), which is an inverse VIX-linked ETF that seeks to provide daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond generally to the Short VIX Futures Index, as noted by VolatilityShares.com.

Simply put, as the VIX drops, the SVIX ETF rises. The inverse is also true. That’s why the SVIX is down 13.4% in the 30 days ending March 3. 

Make Volatility Your Friend

Right now, the headlines are full of doom and gloom. Geopolitical tensions are rising with uncertainty, oil is reacting by gushing higher on fear of what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz, and the VIX is elevated. That combination naturally makes investors uneasy.

But seasoned investors know something important: volatility is emotional. It spikes when uncertainty rises — and it falls when clarity returns. It doesn’t stay elevated forever.

When volatility stops rising on bad news, that’s often the first sign that panic is burning out.

If the VIX begins to roll over, history suggests markets may stabilize and potentially rebound. 

That’s when some of the greatest opportunities tend to appear — not when fear is building, but when it starts to fade. For now, patience matters. Let the fear spike. Let the technical signals develop. And be ready to act when conditions begin to normalize. 

As Warren Buffett has said, “A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy.”  Or, as we learned from Baron Rothschild, “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” His family is now worth $400 billion because of that, by the way.

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Issue: 3/17/2026

Israel Takes Out Iran Leaders

Israel says it killed Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and widely considered the regime’s de facto leader, in an overnight strike carried out with U.S. intelligence support.

Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the strike also took out Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani, the man who oversaw the brutal crackdown on Iranian protesters. Larijani is the highest-ranking official killed since the opening salvo that took out Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Day One of Operation Epic Fury. Tehran has not confirmed the deaths.

Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel is “undermining this regime” to give Iranians “the opportunity to take their destiny into their own hands.”★★★
Cuba Goes Dark, Trump Eyes Takeover

Cuba’s entire national power grid collapsed Monday, plunging all 10 million residents into darkness — the third major blackout in four months as the Trump administration’s oil blockade chokes off fuel shipments.

President Trump told Fox News senior White House correspondent Peter Doocy he believes he’ll have the “honor of taking Cuba”, calling the island a “failed nation” with “no money, no oil, no nothing.”

Cuba’s deputy prime minister announced the government would allow Cuban exiles to invest in companies on the island — a radical concession from the communist regime. President Díaz-Canel confirmed Friday that Havana is in talks with Washington.★★★
Kent Quits, Trump Says “Good”

National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent resigned Tuesday in protest of the Iran war, calling it unjustified and blaming Israeli pressure for dragging the U.S. into the conflict.

Kent, a Gold Star husband and 11-tour combat veteran, is the first senior Trump official to quit over the war. President Trump dismissed him from the Oval Office, saying it’s a “good thing” he’s out.

A senior administration official told Fox News Kent was a “known leaker” who had been cut out of intelligence briefings months ago and played no role in Iran planning. Press Secretary Leavitt called Kent’s claims “false.”
Illinois Votes Today: Durbin’s Seat Up for Grabs

Illinois voters are heading to the polls today in a crowded primary to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin. Democrats are split between Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi, Robin Kelly, and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton. Republicans hope to field a competitive nominee in November.

★★★
Crenshaw Blames “Misinformation” for Blowout Loss

Ousted Rep. Dan Crenshaw told CBS his 15-point primary loss to Steve Toth was “basically a product” of online smears about stock trading. MAGA allies fired back: Trump adviser Alex Bruesewitz said Crenshaw is “auditioning for a left-leaning TV gig.”

★★★
Tuberville Doubles Down on Mamdani Post

Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for Alabama governor, defended his post linking NYC’s socialist Muslim mayor to 9/11. Asked to explain Tuesday, Tuberville said, “I just go by his rhetoric,” while Democrats demanded an apology he won’t give

DHS Shutdown Hits Spring Break

The DHS shutdown is hammering airports during peak spring break travel, with TSA callout rates spiking above 50% at Houston Hobby and over 300 officers quitting. A TSA official warned that smaller airports may have to close entirely.★★★
House Dems Push Discharge Petition

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries announced a discharge petition launch for Wednesday, March 18, targeting a bill to fund TSA, FEMA, and the Coast Guard — while deliberately excluding ICE and CBP funding

★★★
GOP Mail-In Fight Threatens SAVE Act Vote

Trump’s push to eliminate no-excuse absentee voting sent establishment RINOs into meltdown mode. Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) are firm “no” votes, and aides say the motion to proceed Tuesday may not hit 51.

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1. Trump Holds at 44% — Rasmussen’s Tuesday tracker: 44% approve, 54% disapprove, with a Presidential Approval Index of -16. Twenty-nine percent strongly approve, 45% strongly disapprove.
2. Illinois Senate: Krishnamoorthi Leads — With voters heading to the polls today to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, Decision Desk HQ’s polling average shows Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi at 34%, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton at 30%, and Rep. Robin Kelly at 14%. Pritzker has poured $5 million backing Stratton, but Krishnamoorthi’s $30 million war chest may be too much to overcome.
3. Military Still Popular — Eighty-one percent of likely voters view the U.S. military favorably, and most are confident America’s armed forces can deal with foreign enemies — a strong foundation of public support as Operation Epic Fury enters its third week.

1. Iran’s Regime Is Crumbling
   Khamenei dead. Larijani dead. The Basij commander is dead. The new supreme leader hasn’t appeared publicly. Operation Epic Fury is dismantling the mullahs one strike at a time.
2. Cuba’s Last Lights Going Out
   The island is dark, the government is begging exiles to invest, and Díaz-Canel is in secret talks with Washington. Maximum pressure works. Communist regimes collapse when you cut off the money.
3. NATO Freeloaders Say “Not Our War”
   Germany says the Hormuz crisis isn’t their problem, while 20% of the world’s oil flows through the strait, and Europe imports more Gulf oil than it does. Trump is right to call them out.
4. Minneapolis: A Deterrence Problem
   Over 1,000 auto thefts in two months under Walz and Frey — a 35% surge. The police chief blamed ICE. A retired trooper told Fox the real problem is simple: no consequences, more crime.

“When somebody is working with us that says they didn’t think Iran was a threat, we don’t want those people. They’re not smart people, or they’re not savvy people.”

-President Donald Trump, responding to Joe Kent’s resignation, Oval Office remarks, March 17, 2026

★★★

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The Silver Lining to Nebius Debt Cloud

Written by Thomas Hughes

Nebius Group’s (NASDAQ: NBIS)debt load is swelling and clouding the outlook for share prices. However, as significant as debt increases are, there is a silver lining to this cloud: AI.

AI demand is swelling, underpinning a need for expansion that requires capital, which is why debt is swelling. In the end, as evidenced by recent results and developments, all Nebius needs to do is continue executing its strategy and expanding its network to realize billions in annual revenue and generate sufficient cash flow to repay its debt and unlock value for shareholders.

The new debt is due in two tranches, the first not payable until 2031, well after the company is expected to turn profitable.

Also, the overall debt load still looks manageable. The balance sheet shows that it rose at fiscal 2025 year-end but remains manageable at $4.1 billion and below 1X equity. The company plans to raise additional capital through a convertible debt offering this year, but even that would leave it in a solid position, given its growth and outlook. The company has four operational data centers and will more than double its capacity within the next 12 to 24 months, excluding expansion plans for Asia and any new developments. 

New Deals Drive Robust Outlook for Nebius Revenue Growth 

Nebius’ revenue growth outlook was robust before Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) announced plans to invest up to $27 billion over five years in advanced AI capacity. The deal is set to start in 2027 and will include five or more datacenter regions utilizing the latest NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA)GPUs, the Vera Rubin lineup. Nebius needs to supply $12 billion in capacity, well within its purview, but needs to complete its buildout, including the acquisition of GPUs. At face value, the deal is worth up to $5.4 billion annually, or an approximate 50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue over the planned period. 

And Nebius is not alone in its mission to build the world’s most advanced data centers. It has partnered with NVIDIA to deploy factory-supported systems across its footprint in a multi-generational format. The takeaway for investors is that Nebius has a preferred status with the source of AI GPUs, and inroads to existing and upcoming supply, including Vera Rubin and subsequent generations. Additionally, a deal with CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) to bring its Falcon platform to the AI cloud sets the company apart. Falcon enables enterprise-quality security for AI workloads in cross-cloud and multi-cloud environments. 

Analysts Lift Targets in Wake of Nebius Deal Activity

Analyst trends are robust and underpin a healthy outlook for Nebius stock price. MarketBeat tracked several price target increases, upgrades, and coverage initiations in March, extending bullish trends and pointing to a 35% upsidefrom critical resistance targets. Takeaways include an increase in coverage, up 25% sequentially from February and 100% on a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis, and a 35% upside at the consensus. 

The 35% upside target is also likely to be low, as it is up by more than 200% TTM, with recent targets pointing to the $200 level. A move to $200 is worth approximately 67% to investors and may be only the beginning of this rally. Long-term forecasts suggest this stock trades at 10X to 15X 2035 earnings targets, setting the stage for a 100% to 200% increase in stock price as the company grows into its potential. 

Institutions and Short-Interest Point to Squeeze in NBIS Stock

Short interest and institutional trends suggest near-term volatility and a potential short squeeze. Institutions, which collectively own about 22%, are buying aggressively at a pace of more than $2 for each $1 sold and ramping activity sequentially as the news story strengthens. At the same time, short interest is climbing, hitting a record high in late February, and is sufficient to impact price action and fuel a squeeze at 17%. The only question is the timing of the action, and it looks like a squeeze (or at least a short-covering rally) may begin soon. 

Technically, this market is on track to advance. It shows resistance at the $125 level, but this is unlikely to last long, given the improving outlook. Assuming a move to new highs, the next resistance target is near $140, with clear chart space after that. The risk is that the NBIS market will wait until later in the year before hitting a new high. In this scenario, there is a risk that the price will retreat to $100 or lower before there is enough traction to set a fresh high. The next visible catalyst is the upcoming Q1 earnings report in late May. READ THIS STORY ONLINE

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Why Credo and Astera Soared After Oracle and Broadcom’s Earnings

Written by Leo Miller

Credo Technology (NASDAQ: CRDO)and Astera Labs (NASDAQ: ALAB) are some of the fastest-growing beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (AI) data center buildout.

As key suppliers in the data center ecosystem, the results and commentary coming from players upstream of Astera and Credo are vital to evaluating their future. Hyperscaler Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) and custom AI semiconductor stock Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO)are prime examples.

These two names recently reported earnings. Their better-than-expected results and some interesting commentary helped CRDO and ALAB soar. Let’s break down why, as knowing where CRDO and ALAB fit in the data center ecosystem is key to understanding their paths going forward.

How Credo and Astera Power AI Data Center Connectivity

Credo and Astera sit squarely in the AI infrastructure networking bucket. Their products help connect processing chips, like NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA)graphics processing units (GPUs). These connections allow processing chips to communicate with each other and execute tasks.

Credo’s primary product is its HiWire active electrical cable (AEC). These copper-based solutions can be much longer than traditional passive copper cables while preserving signal integrity. They also use less power and are cheaper than optical cables.

Astera’s smart retimers offer similar benefits, but through chips rather than cables. Astera offers AECs too, but smart retimers are by far its largest revenue source.

The big picture is that more data centers mean more networking equipment, expanding the market that Credo and Astera can target.

This is why these stocks rose 3.2% and 7.1%, respectively, after Oracle’s latest earnings report.

Oracle’s Data Center Capacity Ramp Signals Faster Infrastructure Demand

Oracle significantly beat growth estimates in its latest report. Strong performance in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure drove this, showing that infrastructure demand is outpacing expectations.

Oracle delivered 400 megawatts of data center capacity in the quarter and indicated that the pace of this expansion will accelerate.

It plans to bring 10 gigawatts (10,000 megawatts) of capacity online over the next three years.

That would imply 3.3 gigawatts per year or double the 1.6 gigawatt annual run rate (400 megawatts per quarter) the firm just delivered. Faster data center buildouts are a big positive for Credo and Astera, which are part of the connective tissue of these facilities.

This isn’t to say whether Oracle is a Credo or Astera customer, but rather to show that the accelerating pace of data center deployment is a rising tide that will lift both ships.

AVGO Supports CRDO and ALAB’s Runway with Copper Forecast

While more data centers are a positive for Credo and Astera, the conversation is a bit more complicated than just that. Credo and Astera’s primary revenue-generating products are copper-based. The alternative to copper networking is optical solutions, which transmit data using light rather than electricity. Optical solutions can handle more data, but they also use more power and are more expensive. For these reasons, data center operators want to keep using copper-based solutions for as long as possible.

This is part of the reason why Credo and Astera also got big boosts after Broadcom’s earnings release. The two stocks rose 11.9% and 5.5%, respectively.

The gains in Credo and Astera came as Broadcom CEO Hock Tan provided some perspective on the copper versus optical battle. Tan says that in “scale-out” architectures, where data center operators place servers next to each other and connect them, they use optical networking. However, the story is different when it comes to “scale-up” architectures, where companies pack more processing chips into each server. Scale up is the domain that Credo and Astera primarily play in, though they have scale out solutions as well.

In 2028, Tan believes Broadcom’s scale-up customers will likely still be using copper. He noted that copper technology is good enough that customers don’t need to run toward highly advanced optical solutions, like co-packaged optics (CPO), at this time.

CPO describes when processing chips have optical networking components built directly into them. CPO adoption is a long-term threat to CRDO and ALAB. So, the idea that CPO adoption may be slower than some expected, according to Tan, is a positive for CRDO and ALAB. This is particularly true, as Broadcom is a leader in CPO. Because of this, Tan doesn’t necessarily have a vested interest in CPO delay; he’s simply being realistic about the timeline. This adds legitimacy to his statement.

More copper usage improves CRDO and ALAB’s ability to grow in the near term. In the meantime, they can work on expanding their optical solution set to be ready when a larger shift away from copper takes place.

CRDO & ALAB: Niche Players Benefiting From the Data Center Boom

Overall, these pieces of information from Oracle and Broadcom lend support to the outlooks of CRDO and ALAB. Going forward, investors should be aware of how the changing dynamics of copper and optical networking affect these companies.

While these are positive developments, there are also key risks to consider with these two stocks. One example is customer concentration. In 2025, five customers accounted for 84% of ALAB’s revenue. CRDO is significantly more concentrated, with two customers accounting for 87% of revenue last quarter. Should spending at just one or two customers trail off, CRDO and ALAB could be significantly affected. READ THIS STORY ONLINE

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NVIDIA Rally? The Market Hasn’t Seen Anything Yet

Written by Thomas Hughes

If you think that NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) rally-to-date has been impressive, just wait for what comes next. News revealed at the GTC developer conference shows the AI boom is still growing, much larger and faster than expected, indicating potential for another series of triple-digit gains. It may take a minute to comprehend, but this is a series—not just one—of triple-digit gains that could be possible for this semiconductor stock.

CEO Jenson Huang said there is a trillion-dollar revenue opportunity to be realized through 2027, far larger than expected. So large, in fact, that it more than doubles the existing two-year revenue outlook, suggesting NVIDIA’s stock price has yet to be unleashed. 

NVIDIA’s Stock Is Deeply Undervalued—50% Upside Is the Minimum Target

From a valuation perspective, there is a significant opportunity. NVIDIA trades at a 22X forward earnings multiple as of mid-March 2026, which provides no premium relative to the S&P 500.

NVIDIA with no premium is ludicrous, as it is the source of all things AI. Not only is its revenue growing at a wicked hot pace, but the forecasts are also too low, and many comparisons suggest large price increases to come. 

Not only do blue-chip tech stocks, including NVIDIA, often trade at 30-35X forward earnings, suggesting approximately 50% upside, but the growth forecast also provides a deeper opportunity.

NVIDIA trades at only 14X its 2030 forecast and 9X its 2035 forecast, setting the stage for a 150% upside over the long-term.

Assuming the long-term forecast is too low, upside potential could be greater. If the long-term forecast is as off as the fiscal year 2027 (FY2027) and FY2028 seem to be, upside potential may run to the 300% range or higher.

Analysts Are Impressed: Institutions Accumulate NVIDIA

The analyst response to the news cannot be ignored. In the words of Wedbush Dan Ives, the trillion-dollar backlog is a stunner, and driving an outlook reset. MarketBeat tracked no analyst revisions within the first 12 hours of the release, but no sentiment trend change is expected, only strengthening of the current trend.

Other takeaways from the commentaries are that the news is a confidence booster, allaying fears about competition, and that the shift toward full-service AIis progressing smoothly. 

As it stands, 53 analysts rate the stock as a consensus Buy with a 96% Buy-side bias. No analyst rates the stock as a Sell, two peg it at Hold, and the consensus price target, up more than 60% on a trailing 12-month basis, forecasts a 50% upside from March support levels. The high end, coincidentally, forecasts more than 100% upside for this market and is likely to increase as the year progresses. 

Institutions have been taking advantage of NVIDIA’s price consolidation.

MarketBeat data shows them providing a solid support base with more than 60% ownership and accumulating on balance for five sequential quarters. Buying activity ramped up sequentially in 2025 and into early 2026, with a $3-to-$1 buyers-to-sellers pace. This data reflects not only a strong support but a tailwind, as they are aggressively accumulating amid broader market uncertainty. 

NVIDIA Market Sets Up for Big Move: Technical Targets Converge

The question now is what might catalyze the next upward movement? The Q1 2027 results aren’t due until late May, leaving two months for the market to sit and stew. In this environment, anticipation and fear of missing out may drive the stock price higher, with $196 as the critical resistance level. In this scenario, NVIDIA’s price may be capped at $196 until it isn’t, and then it may quickly rise. $200 and $210 are also significant resistance targets, likely to induce volatility but unlikely to halt a price advance once it is underway. 

Chart action is another factor converging on a 50% to 100% stock price movement in the near to mid-term. The past few quarters’ consolidation created a Bullish Flag on a $90 flag pole, which, coincidentally, is planted at the $90 level, suggesting a $90 to 100% upside from the $180 Flag tip. In this scenario, NVIDIA’s stock price may rise by $90, or 50%, from the $180 level as a base-case estimate, and as much as 100% at the high-end, which, coincidentally, is $360 and on track to the Street-high analyst target of $400.  READ THIS STORY ONLINE

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