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Dollar General Holds Its Ground at Critical Level, Signals Buy

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Quiet Moves in Key Sectors Suggest New Momentum Is Building (From Fierce Investor)


Dollar General Holds Its Ground at Critical Level, Signals Buy

Written by Thomas Hughes on March 13, 2026 

Dollar General storefront with bright yellow brand sign above entrance, representing discount retail chain performance and stock recovery.

Key Points

  • Dollar General is well-positioned to execute its Back-to-Basics strategy, sustain growth and cash flow.
  • Analysts and institutions support the stock, indicating a value, but upside may be limited until later in the year.
  • Cautious guidance sent shares plunging, setting the stage for future outperformance and a potential price recovery.
  • Special ReportA hedge fund analyst’s morning — done by AI in seconds (From TradingTips)

Dollar General (NYSE: DG) issued a weak 2026 forecast on March 12, sending its shares down about 10% in the subsequent opening. However, as ugly as a 10% stock price decline can be, as high as the potential for a deeper decline may be, it’s what came next that matters most. The 10% stock price pullback put the DG price in alignment with a significant support target, a target aligning with a prior breakout and reversal pattern, and the market started buying. 

The stock quickly recovered half its losses, confirming support not only at this critical level but also at a pair of long-term exponential moving averages (EMAs), further strengthening the signal. Confirmation of support, along with a Golden Crossover in the EMAs, signaled a long-term bullish market shift, prompting a reversal into accumulation. Assuming the market follows through on this signal, a move below $128 is unlikely to linger if it occurs.

DG stock chart displaying a fall to the buy zone in mid-March.

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Institutions Buy Dollar General Aggressively in 2026

The institutional data reported by MarketBeat suggests that this group is buying the dip in Dollar General shares. The data reflect a bullish posture on a trailing-twelve-month (TTM) basis, four consecutive quarters of bullish behavior (including the first two months of Q1 2026), buying activity, a ramping pace of buying versus selling, sequentially, and a multiyear high set in early Q1.

The takeaway, given that they own nearly 92% of the stock, is that this market is well supported and has a tailwind to assist any rebound. 

Analysts also provide support, but upside may be limited until later in the year. The post-release updates included cautionary notes focused on slowing comp store sales and tepid guidance. However, most ratings and price targets were maintained, leaving the trend in place.

The current analyst forecast includes a rating from 30 analysts, a consensus Hold rating, and a 46% Buy-side bias. The bias isn’t strong, nor is the price target, which suggested the stock was fairly valued as of the close prior to the earnings report.

Among the triggers for a rebound are improvements in analysts’ forecasts, which may, in turn, be driven by an upcoming earnings release. 

Dollar General Falls After Strong Report; Guides for Growth

Dollar General had a solid quarter, growing revenue by 5.9% year-over-year (YOY) to nearly $11 billion. The strength was driven by new stores and positive comps, with same-store sales up 4.3%, reflecting a 2.6% increase in traffic and a 1.7% increase in transactions. Revenue strength was also better than expected, outpacing MarketBeat’s reported consensus by 75 basis points (bps), as were the earnings. The company’s lean into rationalization, store improvements, and cost controls is paying off, resulting in widening margins. The net result was $1.93 in GAAP earnings, a nearly 15% gains compared to last year, with margins expected to remain strong. 

Guidance was a concern, as management forecasts revenue growth slowing to about 3.95%, below the 4.25% consensus, but was likely to be cautious. Not only do Dollar General’s results reflect momentum at year’s end, but there is also potential for consumer tailwinds to form in 2026. Tax return season is here, and the returns are larger than in previous years, injecting capital throughout Dollar General’s consumer base. 

Balance sheet highlights provide another incentive for ownership, reflecting the impact of turnaround efforts. Total assets fell slightly on a full-year basis, offset by a larger decline in liabilities. The result was a 15% increase in shareholder equity and the persistent ability to return capital. The company paused buybacks to preserve cash while it rationalized inventory and invested in store remodels, but continues to pay dividends. The distribution is worth about 1.7% as of March 2026, and investors can expect annual increases and for buybacks to resume, possibly by the fiscal year’s end. 

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Dollar General Catalysts in 2026: Better Stores

Among the catalysts for Dollar General this year is its Back to Basics strategy. The company is remodeling, updating, and generally cleaning up stores, reducing inventory and improving quality, while fixing supply chain issues. The combination sets the stage for better-than-expected comps and margin, while concepts like DG Wellness and pOpshelf are helping attract and retain new customers. 

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State Department Announces Rewards for Intel on Iran’s New Leader

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March 14, 2026 State Department Announces Rewards for Intel on Iran’s New Leader 

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Energy Department Announces $1.9 Billion for Projects Strengthening Power Grid

Energy Department Announces $1.9 Billion for Projects Strengthening Power Grid 

The Department of Energy (DOE) has announced a $1.9 billion funding opportunity for projects aimed at speeding up improvements to the nation’s power grid to meet rising electricity demand while… 

Mexican President ‘Should Not Have Refused’ Help in Combating Cartels: Trump

Mexican President ‘Should Not Have Refused’ Help in Combating Cartels: Trump 

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum “should not have refused my help” in fighting criminal cartels in her country, President Donald Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews on March 13. Trump… 

Trump Says Iran Now Wants a Deal

Trump Says Iran Now Wants a Deal 

President Donald Trump on March 13 said the Iranian regime was “totally defeated and wants a deal.” “The Fake News Media hates to report how well the United States Military… 

Trump Targets Manufacturers Who Falsely Label Products ‘Made in America’

Trump Targets Manufacturers Who Falsely Label Products ‘Made in America’ 

President Donald Trump directed his administration March 13 to strengthen enforcement against foreign manufacturers and sellers who falsely claim their products are American-made, as part of an executive order to… 

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A personal warning from Martin Weiss (Please read)

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A message from our partners at Weiss Ratings

Dear Reader,

I started rating the safety of banks in the early ’70s.

Over the last 50+ years, I’ve warned my readers about the bank failures of the 1980s and 1990s, the Dot-Com Bust, the 2008 housing collapse and more.

But today, I’m writing to you with a different kind of warning. One that genuinely frightens me.

This time, the threat to your money isn’t coming from reckless Wall Street bankers. It’s coming directly from the Federal Reserve itself.

Through a program outlined in the Federal Reserve Docket No. OP-1670 — known as “FedNow” — the government is quietly rewiring the entire American banking system.

Simply stated, the Fed is building a centralized hub that will process every transaction in the U.S. … giving it the ability to track every transfer, bill pay, purchase or donation you make in real time.

That, in turn, could give them unprecedented power to cut off your access to your savings if they decide you’re not in “compliance” with whatever their policy agenda dictates at the time.

Or maybe even confiscate your savings when the need arises like it happened in Cyprus in 2013.

In all my decades studying the U.S. economy and banking system, I’ve never seen anything as scary as this.

If you value your financial privacy …

If you believe your money belongs to you and not Washington …

Now’s the time to act.

I’ve spent the last few months putting together 4 specific, legal steps to “Fed-proof” your checking and savings accounts.

I urge you to take this threat seriously.

Review these 4 steps immediately, right here.

Good luck and God bless!

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Martin D. Weiss, PhD
Weiss Ratings Founder

P.S. The Fed is counting on the fact that ordinary Americans won’t read a 93-page document until it’s too late. I’ve read it and that’s why I’m begging you to act while you still can. Get the 4 “Fed-proof” steps right now.


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These 2 AI Stocks Just Got a Massive S&P 500 Catalyst

Reported by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 3/10/2026. 

S&P 500 coin beside AI chip in data center with network cables.

Key Points

  • Inclusion in the S&P 500 index triggers a substantial and predictable wave of buying from institutional investment funds.
  • Vertiv provides the essential power and advanced cooling solutions that are absolutely critical for running high-density AI data centers.
  • Lumentum’s cutting-edge optical components create the high-speed nervous system required for the rapid data transfer essential to AI models.
  • Special ReportEvery morning, an AI ranks 357 stocks for you (From TradingTips)

A shift is underway in the stock market, with two critical technology companies, Vertiv Holdings Co. (NYSE: VRT) and Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LITE), seeing a surge in trading volume and investor interest. That heightened activity follows a major announcement from S&P Dow Jones Indices: both Vertiv and Lumentum will join the S&P 500.

Most investors view this as a badge of honor. Inclusion in one of the world’s most-watched indexes acts as a powerful financial tailwind: it unlocks a predictable, substantial flow of capital and creates a new dynamic for the stocks and their investors. This elevation also shines a spotlight on two businesses that are becoming increasingly essential to the infrastructure of the modern economy, driven by the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI).

A Multi-Billion Dollar Wave of Forced Buying

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A longtime gold analyst says profits from a leading stablecoin operation are being funneled into physical gold at a scale that could materially impact supply and demand. After a recent meeting with insiders, he began outlining what this trend could mean for gold prices and a small group of companies positioned to benefit.Read the full gold briefing here

The market reaction to the S&P 500 news is rooted in a phenomenon known as the index effect. The S&P 500 is the benchmark for the U.S. stock market — a curated list of the 500 largest and most influential American companies — and an estimated more than $15 trillion of assets are tied to the index.

A large portion of this capital sits in passive investment funds, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds, whose mandate is simple: mirror the performance of the S&P 500. To do that, these funds must own shares of every company in the index, with each holding weighted by market capitalization.

When a new company is added, these funds are mechanically required to buy its stock. Once inclusion is announced, the clock starts: funds must acquire positions in Vertiv and Lumentum before the change becomes effective, i.e., before the market opens on Monday, March 23, 2026. That creates a clear window for a wave of forced buying, producing a predictable surge in demand. Active traders often front-run this demand, explaining the immediate price pop, but the underlying institutional flow is what typically establishes a strong floor of support.

The AI Pillars: Fundamental Strength Behind the Technical Pop

S&P 500 inclusion is an important catalyst, but its impact is amplified because it applies to companies with timely, high-demand business models. Both Vertiv and Lumentum are key players in the global build-out of AI infrastructure — a multi-trillion-dollar trend still early in its deployment.

Vertiv: The Power and Plumbing of the AI Revolution

If AI data centers are the factories of the 21st century, Vertiv supplies the essential plumbing and power. The immense computational loads that power AI generate unprecedented heat, creating a major bottleneck for growth. Vertiv specializes in advanced power and thermal management solutions, including direct-to-chip and immersion-cooling systems, which are required to keep these high-density facilities running efficiently.

Demand for its technology is strong, positioning Vertiv to capture a significant share of the rapidly expanding data center cooling market.

  • Massive Order Backlog: Vertiv recently reported a $15 billion order backlog, signaling a robust pipeline of future revenue driven in large part by AI-related projects.
  • Strong Financial Performance:Vertiv reported earnings of $1.36 per share in its most recent quarter, comfortably beating Wall Street estimates and demonstrating solid operational execution.
  • Market Leadership: Its comprehensive portfolio of power and cooling solutions makes it a preferred provider for hyperscale data center operators, reinforcing its competitive advantage.

Lumentum: The Nervous System of High-Speed AI

While Vertiv builds the physical foundation, Lumentum serves as the high-speed nervous system. AI models depend on the rapid transmission of enormous datasets between thousands of chips and servers. Lumentum is a leader in optical and photonic components that enable this, manufacturing high-speed transceivers (from 800G to 1.6T) and lasers that move data at the speed of light.

A major endorsement of its technology came when Lumentum announced a strategic partnership with NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), the undisputed leader in AI chips. That collaboration further cements Lumentum’s role in the AI supply chain.

  • Accelerating Growth: Lumentum’s latest results showed a 65.5% year-over-year revenue increase, underscoring surging demand for its high-speed components.
  • Technological Edge: Lumentum is at the forefront of next-generation optical technologies, positioning it to benefit as AI networks demand ever-faster and more efficient data transfer.
  • Short Squeeze Potential: Lumentum currently has notable short interest. Inclusion in the S&P 500 could force some bearish investors to buy back shares to cover positions, potentially adding to upward momentum.

Beyond the Inclusion Date: A New Era of Visibility

Inclusion in the S&P 500 is a transformative event that ushers in greater visibility and credibility. It puts Vertiv and Lumentum on the radar of a much broader class of global investors and creates a more stable, long-term base of institutional ownership. This elevation often leads to increased analyst coverage and can lower the cost of capital, offering further benefits over time.

While the index effect provides a compelling near-term, technically driven tailwind, the broader significance is market validation: confirmation that these companies are large, liquid and fundamentally important. For investors, this is a powerful convergence — a predictable short-term demand catalyst shining a light on two businesses exceptionally well positioned for sustained, long-term growth at the heart of the artificial intelligence revolution.

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Elon Warns of Impending “Chip Wall.” His solution inside →

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Market Signal | A Timely Investment Alert from Lindsey Hough 

Editor’s Note: Silicon Valley legend Jeff Brown is forecasting that Elon Musk’s “Kardashev Project” is about to trigger the greatest wealth creation event in history. If you missed out on Tesla… Go here to see the details of what Elon has coming next or read more below. 

Elon Warns of Impending “Chip Wall.” 
Will you be on the right side?

Elon Musk warns of the biggest bottleneck threatening the AI economy… 

Without enough chips, AI will crumble, and the stocks it’s holding up will fall with it. 

America’s best tech entrepreneur, Elon Musk, helped build four of the most valuable companies in history. 

Now, he’s sounding the alarm about the impending chip wall threatening the AI bubble and every stock dependent on it.  

Electronics giants like Dell, Samsung, and Xiaomi are already warning customers of price hikes as chips become scarce. 

But Elon says he has a solution. 

A solution that could soon result in the world’s first $10 trillion company as Musk takes matters into his own hands. 

It’s all part of his master plan. 

For the everyday American who’s worked hard to build their nest egg, this could be your last chance to get on the right side. Before the chip wall changes everything we know about the AI economy… 

Preserving and even growing everything you’ve built for yourself. 

Go here to watch legendary tech investor and Silicon Valley angel investor Jeff Brown’s quick briefing and execute the simple steps to protect your future. 

History proves those who act first always fare best…
Will you be ready?

Learn the steps you need to take before March 31.

Regards, 

Lindsey Hough
Managing Director, Brownstone Research 

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I went live yesterday. Here’s what you missed.


Hey, Blake here.

Yesterday’s Dark Wire session is now available to watch.

If you missed it — this is your chance.

Watch the replay here.

Here’s what I covered:

February was my first losing month using the Dark Wire at TheoTRADE. I finished down 0.1%. After nine consecutive winning months, the streak ended. I’m not going to sugarcoat it.

But here’s the full picture. The markets in 2026 have been brutal. The Iran conflict has everything in a tailspin. Other traders are getting crushed. And the worst month this system produced was a fraction of a percent in the red.

March is already up 15%. And the day before yesterday I placed four trades using Dark Wire beacons — all four were winners.

Yesterday I walked through the entire system live. The overnight beacon scan. How those beacons give me a 12-hour head start on where institutional money is moving. The two-hour execution window I use every single morning.

Everything is in the replay. Watch it now before it comes down.

Click here to watch yesterday’s full Dark Wire session.

Blake Young


Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade.com  or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA |SIPC |NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment.Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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