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This Week’s Exclusive News
Why Gold Loves Trump as Much as Trump Loves Gold
Reported by Jordan Chussler. Posted: 11/26/2025.
Article Highlights
- Gold has surged over 58% in 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions, market volatility, and macroeconomic policy shifts under Trump’s second term.
- Ongoing legal and political uncertainty around Trump’s tariff authority could further fuel volatility and gold prices.
- A weakening U.S. dollar and potential interest rate cuts in 2026 may sustain gold’s bullish momentum into the next year.
Gold has had a banner year in 2025, gaining more than 58% and outperforming the broader market by a wide margin. For context, the S&P 500 is up about 14%, while Bitcoin has lost around 6% (with Bitcoin-leveraged stocks performing far worse than the crypto itself).
Among precious metals, silver has outshone gold with a 78% year-to-date (YTD) gain. Still, gold appears well-positioned to sustain its rally into 2026—fueled in part by President Donald Trump’s return to power and the market’s reaction to his policies.
Volatility Is Once Again on the Rise
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Precious metals tend to run strongly during periods of heightened volatility because investors often shift capital from riskier assets like stocks into safe havens such as gold.
Volatility has been a hallmark of Trump’s second term. From Inauguration Day to March 10, volatility—as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index (CBOE: VIX)—rose roughly 85% as rumors of the president’s tariff plans emerged.
The VIX then pulled back about 20% by the end of March, before spiking to a five-year high during the market’s so-called tariff tantrum in April, when the index jumped 135% in the first week of the month.
The index had settled down by about 70% by the end of September after the president walked back tariffs against numerous countries. Since then it has climbed roughly 35%, raising the prospect of another bout of elevated volatility into year-end.
The SCOTUS Tariff Decision Looms
A critical legal development could further shape gold’s trajectory: the U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing whether Trump has the authority to impose tariffs without Congressional approval.
If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the administration, tariffs—whether or not Congress explicitly approves them—would remain in place, which could further erode the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power and push gold prices higher.
But a ruling against the administration could also support gold. On Sunday, Fortune reported that “President Donald Trump’s administration is working behind the scenes on fallback options if the Supreme Court strikes down one of his major tariff authorities.” Such contingency plans would likely sustain investor anxiety and, in turn, demand for safe-haven assets.
Foreign Policy and Geopolitical Instability Drive Gold Prices
Despite campaign pledges to reduce global conflict, Trump’s second term has not delivered meaningful geopolitical de‑escalation. The Russia-Ukraine war, now entering its fourth year, continues with no end in sight.
Although Trump helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in early October, hostilities have not fully ceased, with near-daily strikes continuing in the Gaza Strip. Since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023, the price of gold has risen by more than 125%.
More recently, the administration has increased military activity in the Caribbean, signaling potential intervention in Venezuela. The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier is positioned near the South American nation, roughly 15,000 U.S. troops are in the region, and B-52 and B-1 bombers have conducted simulated bombing exercises near Venezuela’s airspace—a notable escalation.
Geopolitical instability has historically boosted demand for gold, and the current environment shows little sign of reversing that trend.
Dollar Weakness and Rate Cuts Are Strengthening Gold’s Bull Case
Two additional drivers for gold are currency weakness and interest-rate cuts. The U.S. dollar index is down nearly 8% from its YTD high, which it hit a week before Trump’s inauguration.
Trump’s tariff announcements helped spark the initial decline in the dollar this year and raised inflation expectations.
At the same time, soft economic data—including rising unemployment, increasing layoffs, and weak nonfarm payrolls—have already prompted the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year.
If current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is replaced with a dovish Trump ally when his term ends in May 2026, the Fed could move toward additional rate cuts next year.
Lower interest rates typically benefit gold because rates and gold prices have tended to move inversely: when rates fall, yield-producing assets look less attractive and investors often turn to gold for upside potential.
Dollar weakness combined with a looser monetary policy would reinforce gold’s bull case and likely support further gains if those trends continue.
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