The market’s smoke alarm is going off

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The VIX Is Hot. Here’s How To Trade the Cool-Down.

Write this number down: 22.11.

That’s where the VIX — the market’s “fear gauge” — opened on March 5, 2026

And yes, the VIX is basically the market’s smoke alarm. It’s not measuring “how bad things are.” It’s measuring how much near‑term volatility traders are pricing into S&P 500 options. 

When it jumps, it usually means one thing:

People are paying up for protection.

And when people overpay for protection… opportunity shows up.


Why the fear gauge is overheating

Markets can digest bad news.

What they can’t digest is open-endednews.

That’s what you have right now.

The U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has turned into the kind of rolling uncertainty that keeps traders glued to headlines. 

Look at the chain reaction:

  • Hezbollah acknowledged launching missiles and drones toward Israel, and air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv as projectiles streaked across the sky. 
  • President Trump signaled the campaign could continue for at least four weeks, which is a fancy way of saying: “nobody knows the end date.” 
  • The U.S. embassy in Riyadh was hit by two drones, with a limited fire and material damage, and the embassy issued a “shelter in place” notice. 
  • The State Department ordered the departure of non‑emergency personnel and family members from Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan

That’s not “background noise.”

That’s the kind of situation where money managers can’t model next week, let alone next quarter.

And when managers can’t model outcomes, they don’t make heroic bets.

They buy insurance.

They raise cash.

They de-risk.

That’s how you get a VIX in the 20s.

One more thing: this kind of conflict doesn’t just hit stocks. It hits oil, shipping, airlines, the whole “real economy” layer.

Reuters noted oil prices were soaring and shipping disruptions were building as the conflict widened. 

If you’ve got a 401(k), you feel that in two places:

Your account balance.

And your gas bill.


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How We know fear is peaking (not just rising)

Here’s the part most people get wrong.

They see the VIX spike and they think: “That means the world is ending.”

Sometimes it is.

Most of the time it’s not.

Most of the time it’s fear getting overpriced.

And the VIX doesn’t live up here.

It visits.

The last time we were in this general neighborhood, the VIX printed 25.31 on October 16, 2025 and 26.42 on November 20, 2025

And if you want to see what “real panic” looks like, look back to early April 2025:

The VIX hit 52.33 on April 8, 2025.

By mid-August 2025, it was back down around 14.49

That’s the pattern.

Fear spikes.

People pay any price for protection.

Then the air clears, and the same protection they were desperate to buy becomes the thing they can’t wait to sell.

That’s the moment you should be looking for.

Not when fear is rising fast.

When fear stops accelerating.

That was the signal.

So what should you watch in real time?

Keep it simple:

  1. A stretched VIX level (like we’ve got now — 21.60 as of March 5). 
  2. Momentum indicators that tell me the move is exhausted (RSI, MACD, Williams %R — you’re basically asking: is the sprint turning into a stumble?).
  3. Price action that confirms it (a reversal day, a lower close after a spike, or a failure to make new highs even as headlines get worse).

Here’s the key: don’t try to catch the top tick in fear.

Try to catch the turn.

Because the turn is where the easy money is.

And when it comes, it usually comes fast.


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The trade — short volatility (carefully) when the smoke starts to thin

When the VIX is overheated, there are two broad ways people try to monetize it:

A) Buy equities into the panic
Sometimes that’s as simple as buying calls on broad indexes when fear peaks.

It’s not glamorous.

It’s just taking the other side of forced hedging.

B) Short volatility directly (the “toolbox” trade)
This is where inverse VIX products come in.

But you need to respect what they are.

They’re not magic.

They’re power tools.

The cleanest examples:

SVXY (ProShares Short VIX Short‑Term Futures ETF)

SVXY seeks daily results that correspond to one‑half the inverse (-0.5x) of the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short‑Term Futures Index. 

Expense ratio: 0.95%

It’s designed to profit from decreased volatility, as measured by VIX futuresprices. 

SVIX (VolatilityShares -1x Short VIX Futures ETF)

SVIX seeks to provide daily inverse results corresponding generally to the Short VIX Futures Index (SHORTVOL), which is built on a rolling position in first and second month VIX futures. 

Now let me be brutally honest about the part that hurts people:

These are daily products.

If you hold them longer than a day, your results can drift — sometimes a lot — from what you “think” you’re buying. 

And yes, it can get ugly fast.

ProShares explicitly warns that VIX-futures-linked ETFs can be highly volatile, and investors could potentially lose the full value of their investment over periods as short as one day

VolatilityShares says the same thing in plain language: these funds are intended for short-term purposes, can be highly volatile, and you could lose full principal value within a single day. 

Not a toy.

So how do you make this into a real plan?

You should do three things:

First, treat this like a trade, not a “position.” Days to weeks. Not months. 

Second, size it like it can go against you hard — because it can.

Third, define what would make you change your mind:

If the conflict escalates and volatility starts making new highs again, don’t argue with it. Step aside.

Because the whole edge here is simple:

Fear gets overpriced.

Then it cools.

And when it cools, the payoff can be quick.

You can’t profit from a market panic if you’re panicking too.

What you can do right now: set an alert on the VIX level, and decide in advance what “fear peaking” looks like for you — so you’re not improvising with your money on the line.


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Have you ever had any success trading the VIX at times of increased volatility? What was your strategy? What other sectors of the market are you focusing on in 2026? Hit “reply” to this email and let us know your thoughts!

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(Action Required) The 20-year Plan to Weaken America Revealed…

The 20-year Plan to Weaken America Revealed…

Dear American,

What’s happening in the Middle East isn’t just another regional war.

It’s part of a larger power play — and your money is at risk.

Russia has openly condemned the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran as “unprovoked aggression,” signaling a deep alignment with Tehran as tensions flare.

But Russia’s involvement goes far deeper than diplomatic words.

In early 2025, President Vladimir Putin signed a 20-year strategic partnership pact with Iran — covering defense, energy, finance, and more.

This isn’t a casual friendship. It’s a long-term alliance.

That matters because while the news talks about bombs and airstrikes, Russia, Iran, and its allies are building a stronger economic and strategic front— one that directly challenges U.S. influence on the global stage.

They are preparing for a world where America has less control.

As global tensions rise — and alliances like Russia and Iran deepen — the confidence that countries have in the U.S. starts to crack.

Meanwhile, the mainstream media remains silent about this aggressive attack against President Donald Trump and the U.S.

Former Trump adviser John Browne just released an urgent warning for Americans.

Click here to discover the EXACT steps you need to take in the next 48 hours.

It is imperative that you take 15 minutes and read this URGENT BRIEFING now.

Click HERE to view.

Regards,

Newsmax Money

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Revelation 5:1-4 – Unveiling the Sealed Scroll: Jeremiah’s Deed and Revelation’s Title of Redemption

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Revelation 5:1-4

(1) And I saw in the right hand of Him who sat on the throne a scroll written inside and on the back, sealed with seven seals. (2) Then I saw a strong angel proclaiming with a loud voice, “Who is worthy to open the scroll and to loose its seals?” (3) And no one in heaven or on the earth or under the earth was able to open the scroll, or to look at it. (4) So I wept much, because no one was found worthy to open and read the scroll, or to look at it. 

Jeremiah 32:6-15

(6) And Jeremiah said, “The word of the LORD came to me, saying, (7) ‘Behold, Hanamel the son of Shallum your uncle will come to you, saying, “Buy my field which is in Anathoth, for the right of redemption is yours to buy it.”’ (8) Then Hanamel my uncle’s son came to me in the court of the prison according to the word of the LORD, and said to me, ‘Please buy my field that is in Anathoth, which is in the country of Benjamin; for the right of inheritance isyours, and the redemption yours; buy it for yourself.’ Then I knew that this was the word of the LORD. (9) So I bought the field from Hanamel, the son of my uncle who was in Anathoth, and weighed out to him the money—seventeen shekels of silver. (10) And I signed the deed and sealed it, took witnesses, and weighed the money on the scales. (11) So I took the purchase deed, both that which was sealed according to the law and custom, and that which was open; (12) and I gave the purchase deed to Baruch the son of Neriah, son of Mahseiah, in the presence of Hanamel my uncle’s son, and in the presence of the witnesses who signed the purchase deed, before all the Jews who sat in the court of the prison. (13) “Then I charged Baruch before them, saying, (14) ‘Thus says the LORD of hosts, the God of Israel: “Take these deeds, both this purchase deed which is sealed and this deed which is open, and put them in an earthen vessel, that they may last many days.” (15) For thus says the LORD of hosts, the God of Israel: “Houses and fields and vineyards shall be possessed again in this land.”’ 
New King James Version   Change email Bible version

Scripture contains another sealed scroll that rarely receives a second glance, yet it more closely resembles the scroll John agonized over than the scrolls of Ezekiel and Zechariah.

In Jeremiah 32:6-15, just before the siege of Jerusalem, God instructs Jeremiah to perform an act as a sign that the Jews would return to the land. This passage is about inheritance and redemption of property, in which Jeremiah is the kinsman-redeemer, similar to Boaz (Ruth 4:1-11). At God’s direction, Jeremiah pays the purchase price, signs and seals the deed, and performs it all in the presence of witnesses.

Verse 11 refers to the purchase deed in the singular but later describes it as “boththat which was sealed . . . and that which was open.” These title deeds consisted of duplicates. One copy was left open so the contents could be read by any interested party, while the second copy was sealed to ensure that no tampering could be done. When it was time to buy back the property, the sealed copy would be unsealed to verify the original agreement. The only person with authority to unseal the deed, however, was the rightful owner—the one redeeming the property.

Consider how this applies to the scroll of Revelation 5. In type, it is not merely a prophetic scroll of judgment but a sealed title deed! Its sealing is not due to its contents being truly secret since the majority of its contents can be found in other places. God’s prophets warn about religious deception; wars; famines; pestilences and earthquakes; the deaths of God’s servants; great signs in the heavens; and the future Kingdom. In other words, in the words of the prophets, we already have the open deed, though it is fragmented and not in time-sequence. The essence of what John sees as the seals are opened has not been completely hidden from human knowledge; the prophets have already, at least in part, spoken of each of them.

Also, we have Jesus’ testimony in the Olivet Prophecy, of which the Revelation scroll is essentially an expansion, particularly regarding the Seventh Seal. The two prophecies describe the same judgment events in the same order. In type, then, the gospel of the Kingdom of God, including the Olivet Prophecy, is like the open deed that we can consult at any time.

Thus, the Revelation scroll remains sealed until the right time for a different purpose—not because of wholly secret contents, but because the seals denote that only the one claiming the property at issue is legally allowed to open the scroll. John sees the scroll in the Father’s right hand because the time has come to release the seals. It is time for the property to be redeemed and the proper ownership to be legally determined. With the sealed scroll in the Eternal Judge’s right hand, a strong angel—an officer of the court, so to speak—issues a challenge for the worthy party to step forward and claim what is his.

Understanding this scroll answers why John wept so much: He was looking at the title deed of all things! God is praised for creating “all things” (Revelation 4:11), and He has appointed the Son as heir of “all things” (Hebrews 1:2). However, the world and its inhabitants are presently in Satan’s hand. He currently holds the property in question, having the whole world under his sway (I John 5:19).

Thus, the ownership of the creation and the whole purpose of Elohim in creating humanity in God’s image are hanging in the balance—and nobody is found who could claim it. The weight of what it would mean for the deed to go unredeemed—for the world to continue with Satan as its ruler—must have overwhelmed John.

Having paid the ultimate purchase price for His property, the Lamb alone is worthy to open the sealed deed. The Lamb even provides His own witnesses to testify of His eligibility—His claim on His property—throughout His earthly ministry (John 1:6-8, 15); after His death (Acts 1:8, 22; 2:32; 3:15; 4:33; 5:32; 10:39; 13:31; 14:17; 22:15; 23:11); in every martyr willing to die for his Kingdom and King (Revelation 6:9-11); and in two final witnesses of the Lamb’s right to all things (Revelation 11:3-13).

— David C. Grabbe

To learn more, see:
Worthy to Take the Scroll

Topics:

Deception

Elohim

Ezekiel’s Prophecies

Ezekiel’s Scroll

Famine

Famine -Induced Great tribulation

Jeremiah

Jeremiah as Prophet

Jesus Christ as Worthy to Open the Seals

Jesus Christ Qualified to Open Scroll

Olivet Prophecy

Prophecy, Olivet

Seals of Revelation

Seventh Seal

Unfolding of Seals

Wars and Rumors of Wars

Worthiness

Worthy is the Lamb

Commentary copyright © 1992-2026  Church of the Great God
New King James Version copyright © 1982 by Thomas Nelson, Inc.

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The recent government shutdown proved one thing…

It’s more important than ever to tune out of the noise and zero in on what’s actuallymoving the market.

Predictions, panic, “crash calls”… you’ve seen it all before.

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