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Into the Extreme: Exploding Rates and Cracking Internals

Friday, March 20, 2026

Don here…

Gold just breached the lower edge of its expected move for the third straight week. That kind of liquidation in metals only happens when major banking institutions need to raise capital.

The S&P 500 sold off nearly 2% on triple witching Friday. Interest rates exploded. Bonds tanked alongside equities. And gold dropped over two and a half standard deviations below its expected move.

Every asset class sold off at the same time. That tells you something is broken in the financial plumbing.

Here is what really concerns me. The S&P 500 is only 7% off all time highs. A correction does not even begin until 10%.

Nvidia, the largest constituent in the S&P 500, has shown virtually no sell side activity. If mutual fund holders were liquidating, Nvidia would be getting crushed. The fact that it is holding up means the real selling has not even started yet.

The VIX is elevated but not making new highs. I call this the scary movie proposition. The first time you see it, you scream. The third time, you already know what is coming. The market has seen this film before, and that means true capitulation is still ahead of us.

Financials finished the day nearly flat while the S&P 500 dropped almost 2%. In a real capitulation event, everything sells. The lack of correlation across sectors tells you we are not there yet.

Meanwhile, the 10 year yield jumped a full tenth of a percent in a single session and is approaching 4.5%. Money is not flowing from equities into bonds. It is leaving both.

Here is what I walked through in tonight’s video:

  • The S&P 500 has now stayed inside the expected move for 10 consecutive weeks, an anomaly that signals violent moves are directly ahead
  • Gold is in liquidation territory at 2.5 standard deviations below expected move, the kind of selling that only comes from banks raising capital
  • Tesla butterflies I bought for 50 cents closed at $1.18 and $1.50, returning over 140% in 24 hours
  • A Toll Brothers spread bought for $2.75 closed at $6.00, a 100% return in roughly a month
  • Volatility futures are in backwardation but only by a single point, meaning the fear premium has room to expand significantly

Click here to watch me break down the sell side activity, the metals liquidation, and exactly where the next violent move is coming from

To your success,

Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

P.S. Tuesday at 1PM, I’m doing a special encore of my latest 0DTE webinar. You may think you know how to trade 0DTE options. But I promise you, what I’ll explain will blow your mind. 

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These are the aces to watch on Opening Day

The Lineup: Pregame Edition

Friday, March 20

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Opening Day starting pitcher matchups

Welcome to The Pregame Lineup, a weekday newsletter that gets you up to speed on everything you need to know for today’s games, while catching you up on fun and interesting stories you might have missed. Today’s edition was written by David Adler.

The aces are coming. 

MLB just unveiled the full slate of Opening Day starting pitchers. (Well, almost all of it … the Brewers and Padres are still TBD.) And it’s a good one. 

We’ve got Paul Skenes. Tarik Skubal. Garrett Crochet. Max Fried. Yoshinobu Yamamoto. And a whole lot more. 

Most importantly, we’ve got some must-see pitchers’ duels to kick off the 2026 season next week. 

Here are four of the best Opening Day starting pitcher matchups: 

1) Paul Skenes (Pirates) vs. Freddy Peralta (Mets)
Thursday, 1:15 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)

As the Pirates put it when they announced Skenes as their Opening Day starter yesterday: “Duh.” Skenes is the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, one of the best pitchers on the planet and just got done dominating for Team USA at the World Baseball Classic. And on the other side, Peralta is making his debut as the Mets’ new ace after their blockbuster trade for him this offseason. 

2) Max Fried (Yankees) vs. Logan Webb (Giants)
Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET (Netflix)

Fried was terrific in his debut in pinstripes in 2025, and now he gets the ball for his first Opening Day start as a Yankee after three with the Braves. But his opponent is just as accomplished. Webb has become a perennial Cy Young contender, and he led the National League with 224 strikeouts last season.

3) Zac Gallen (D-backs) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers)
Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)

Yamamoto closed out the 2025 World Series, and now the Dodgers’ postseason hero will start L.A.’s quest for a three-peat in 2026. He’s only the sixth pitcher in the divisional era(that’s since 1969) to go from World Series closer to Opening Day starter, following Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Josh Beckett, Scott McGregor and Mike Torrez. That’s pretty cool. Yamamoto will be opposed by a three-time top-10 Cy Young finisher in Gallen, who’s no stranger to this NL West rivalry. 

4) Cole Ragans (Royals) vs. Chris Sale (Braves)
Friday, 7:15 p.m. ET (MLB.TV , BravesVision, Royals.TV)

The last 2026 Opening Day matchup is one of the best as two ace southpaws take the mound. Sale, the 2024 NL Cy Young Award winner, is making his eighth career Opening Day start and second straight with Atlanta. Ragans, who was limited by injury last season but had 223 strikeouts in an All-Star 2024 season, is making his third straight Opening Day start for Kansas City.  

MUST-SEE PROSPECT MATCHUPS THIS WEEKEND

Spring Breakout matchups to watch

Spring Breakout is now in full swing, with six games yesterday, four more today and six more coming over the weekend. 

If you want to follow along with the prospect showcase, here’s the full schedule and results.

And before we send you off to the games, here are three highlights of the first day of action … and three of the best prospect matchups to watch this weekend. 

Spring Breakout Day 1 highlights 

1) Miguel Sime Jr.’s triple-digit heat 

It was Sime, an 18-year-old pitching prospectfor the Nationals, vs. JJ Wetherholt, the No. 5 overall prospect in baseball.  

Advantage: Sime. 

The young right-hander dialed it up to 100.8 mph to strike out the Cardinals’ top prospect in his overpowering Spring Breakout outing. Sime threw nine fastballs at 100-plus mph in one inning on the mound and topped out at 101.9 mph.  

2) Emmanuel Rodriguez’s frozen ropes 

Rodriguez, one of four Twins prospects in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 at No. 74, was just ripping the ball at Spring Breakout. The 23-year-old slugger smoked a 115.6 mph single and a 113.2 mph triple in his game yesterday against the Phillies prospects. 

That 115.6 mph base hit was harder than any ball hit by a Minnesota player in the big leagues last season. And the last time a Twins player had two hits 113 mph or harder in the same game was all the way back in 2021, when Miguel Sanó and Nelson Cruz did it.

3) Joshua Báez’s blast 

MLB’s No. 87 prospect crushed the hardest home run of Spring Breakout Day 1. The 22-year-old Cardinals slugger teed off on 6-foot-8 Nationals pitching prospect Yoel Tejeda Jr. for a 112.7 mph, 412-foot homer. The Cards only hit two home runs harder than that all of last season. 

Prospect matchups to watch at Spring Breakout this weekend 

Today: Konnor Griffin (MLB No. 1) vs. Max Clark (MLB No. 10) — Tigers vs. Pirates, 7:35 p.m. ET 

Two top-10 overall prospects going head to head, including MLB’s No. 1 overall in Griffin, who already looks like a future franchise cornerstone for the Pirates.  

Tomorrow: Ethan Holliday (MLB No. 24) vs. Kayson Cunningham (AZ No. 2) — Rockies vs. D-backs, 7:30 p.m. ET 

This game features two promising young shortstops from the 2025 Draft class. Ethan, the younger Holliday at 19 years old, was the No. 4 overall pick by the Rockies. The 19-year-old Cunningham was selected 18th overall by the D-backs. 

Sunday: Jesús Made (MLB No. 3) vs. Leo De Vries (MLB No. 4) — Brewers vs. A’s, 4:05 p.m. ET 

Spring Breakout is going to end with a bang, as two top-five overall prospects face off. The 18-year-old Made is following in Jackson Chourio’s footsteps as another Brewers international prospect sensation. The 19-year-old De Vries was the centerpiece the A’s got back in their Mason Miller trade. 

WELCOME BACK TO THE GHOST FORK

Kodai Senga

We all want to see Kodai Senga and his Ghost Fork haunting hitters again. And Senga finally looks like his old self.

Senga — who was an All-Star as a rookie in 2023 but was derailed by injuries over the last two seasons — has been awesome again for the Mets this spring. 

As Juan Soto put it: “That’s our ace.”

The results are sparkling: Senga has a 1.86 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings through three outings, including a lights-out start against the Astros yesterday.

And the stuff looks its best since 2023. Senga’s fastball is averaging 96.2 mph at Spring Training, a mile-and-a-half per hour harder than it did in 2025. He’s topped out at 98.9 mph. And his signature forkball is sharper, too, at 83.7 mph this spring compared to 82.5 mph last season. 

Remember, a healthy and sharp Senga is up there with the top pitchers in the league, and the Ghost Fork is one of baseball’s nastiest pitches. This is the Senga we need in 2026.

HOW DID MERRILL HIT THIS PITCH? 

An animated GIF of Jackson Merrill hitting a ground-rule double

Padres star Jackson Merrill had one of the craziest hits of the spring yesterday. He somehow smacked a ground-rule double off a pitch at his eyes.

That swing is insane. How did he stay on top of that pitch? 

Here’s another look at how ludicrously high the ball was when Merrill teed off on it, courtesy of the MLB Gameday App. It’s Pitch No. 4, alllllllllllll the way up there. That’s well over four feet off the ground — the highest pitch hit for an extra-base hit this Spring Training. 

A pitch-by-pitch look of Jackson Merrill's at-bat via Gameday

DAILY WALKOFF

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🏎️ IMSA Returns to Lime Rock Park in 2027 – Join the Righthanders at their Spring Kickoff!

NEWS: IMSA Returns to Lime Rock Park Sept 23 – 25, 2027

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NEWS: IMSA Returns to Lime Rock Park in 2027

IMSA will return to Lime Rock Park September 23–25, 2027.

The event will mark the beginning of a multi-year agreement between Lime Rock Park, IMSA and FCP Euro, bringing the premier North American sports car racing organization back to the legendary Connecticut circuit.

FCP Euro will continue as the entitlement sponsor, with the race officially named the FCP Euro Northeast Grand Prix.

The 2027 FCP Euro Northeast Grand Prix will feature two of IMSA’s highly competitive championships, the Michelin Pilot Challenge and the VP Racing SportsCar Challenge, with additional support series to be announced at a later date.

Click the button below to read more about IMSA’s 2027 return to Lime Rock Park & hear from IMSA President John Doonan, FCP Euro’s Kyle Bento, & more!LEARN MORE – IMSA Returns to Lime Rock Park

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Spring Kickoff Meeting March 28th at 10am – First 5 RSVPs Invited to Participate in Righthander’s Autocross Session (must attend meeting)

The Righthanders Club is a group of dedicated individuals with a passion for racing and a desire to be involved at Lime Rock Park. The Club is a volunteer organization that works together to assist the staff at Lime Rock Park execute the details of each event.

They’ll be hosting their Spring Kick-Off Meeting at LRP on Saturday, March 28th at 10am. If you’ve ever wanted to get involved at Lime Rock Park, swing by & learn more about the Righthanders Club! 

The first 5 participants to RSVP & attend the meeting will be invited to join the Righthander’s Autocross session that afternoon, taking place immediately following the meeting. Click the button below to learn more & RSVP today!LEARN MORE & RSVP – Righthanders Club Kickoff Meeting

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We’re thrilled to announce the launch of our Intro to Racing program, a structured entry point onto the main circuit designed specifically for novices and first-time track drivers. Participants use their own street cars and progress through a supervised curriculum that combines classroom instruction and on-track experience.

Intro to Racing is a five-hour program that combines classroom sessionswith paced laps, coached stop-box exercises and controlled open lapping. Instructors review safety procedures, vehicle dynamics, racing lines and flag communication before drivers apply those lessons on track.

Click the button below to learn more & register for an Intro to Racing today!LEARN MORE & ENTER – INTRO TO RACING

Secure Your Summer of Speed in 2026 – Tickets & Passes On Sale Now

From NASCAR trucks roaring through the Berkshires, to the return of the Trans Am Memorial Day Classic, to a refreshed Historic Festival weekend and an elevated MiataCon, you won’t want to miss 2026 at Lime Rock Park!

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AutoX Club 

Save big on the 2026 Autocross season on the FCP Euro Proving Grounds

Whether you’re looking to compete in the 2026 AutoX Shootout or just interested in testing your car’s limitson the FCP Euro Proving Grounds, the AutoX Club gets you more track time for less.

The AutoX Club offers $3,000 of track time for $1,500. Autocross events run from April to November, giving you more than enough opportunity each month to improve your lap time.

Click the link below to read more about membership benefits & get yours today!LEARN MORE – AutoX Club

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How exiled citizens are keeping Cuba alive

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Exiled Cubans are keeping the island alive

Exiled Cubans are keeping the island alive motherjones.com · Laura C. Morel Cuba is facing its worst economic crisis ever. The packages keep coming anyway. 

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Joe Kent, Candace Owens, and the Iran War

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How China is getting everyone on OpenClaw, from gearheads to grandmas

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The birth control pill and cancer: What are the risks?

The birth control pill and cancer: What are the risks? politifact.com · Madison Czopek A flood of recent social media posts described hormonal birth control pills as cancer causing. Before ditching them, here are the facts. 

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Gender conformity starts young – and boys and girls fall in line in different ways

Gender conformity starts young – and boys and girls fall in line in different ways theconversation.com · Adam Stanaland and Andrea Vial Boys as young as 5 already recognize that femininity is something to avoid. 

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Welcome to Paris, the city that said no to cars

Welcome to Paris, the city that said no to cars Bloomberg · Marie Patino Outgoing Mayor Hidalgo made the city greener. Sunday’s election may determine the direction of her legacy. 

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A way-too-early preview of the 2027 Best Picture Oscar race

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Terror Threat: Soft Targets Now Vulnerable in America! EP723

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Terror Threat: Soft Targets Now Vulnerable in America! EP723

SDN INTEL ALERT

CHRIS HEAVEN

MAR 20

PAID

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This is a sneak peek at this evening’s podcast. Only SDN Guardians and SDN Intel Alerts subscribers receive episode previews.

The daily SITREP, threat analysis, and tonight’s broadcast are published HEREfirst
Watch live on the SDN YouTube channel HERE.
Backup broadcast channel HERE.

America is facing a homeland threat environment unlike anything seen since 9/11. Foreign conflicts are no longer staying foreign. Sleeper networks, radicalized lone actors, and extremist propaganda pipelines are positioning soft targets across 25 or more American cities for coordinated attacks that will dwarf what we saw on September 11th 2001. Tonight on EP723 we are breaking down the mechanisms driving this escalation and what it means for your family’s security posture right now.

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SEGMENT 1: The DHS Gap – When the Defense Architecture Fails

SUMMARY: The partial DHS shutdown combined with the gutting of CI-12 has created a structural hole in America’s domestic threat detection architecture at the exact moment the threat level is highest. This segment maps the institutional breakdown and what it exposes.

LINKS:Aditya Raj Kaul@AdityaRajKaulIsrael: National Security Council announcement In light of serious concerns that terrorist elements are operating with the aim of harming Israelis abroad, the National Security Council urges Israelis overseas to maintain increased vigilance and adhere to safety precautions.7:26 PM · Mar 5, 2026 · 21K Views5 Replies · 34 Reposts · 200 Likes

SEGMENT 2: Sleeper Network Activation – What the Encrypted Signal Means

SUMMARY: U.S. authorities intercepted what intelligence analysts assess as a possible Iranian activation signal for prepositioned sleeper assets operating across the West. This segment breaks down what that signal means and how Iran’s pre-positioned doctrine works inside American cities.

LINKS:Nick Sortor@nicksortor🚨 TERRIFYING: The US has reportedly intercepted encrypted conversations from the Iranian government meant to trigger “SLEEPER CELLS” across the west, including in the US, per ABC Thanks to the Democrats, we have NO CLUE how many of these sleeper cells are in the US, and Schumer8:08 PM · Mar 9, 2026 · 2.51M Views7.55K Replies · 21.5K Reposts · 66.8K Likes

SEGMENT 3: The Propaganda Pipeline – How Radicalization Becomes a Body Count

SUMMARY: The online radicalization pipeline is converting content consumers into lone actors targeting American soft targets in real time. This segment traces the Austin, NYC, and ODU attacks through the propaganda-to-violence operational pattern.

LINKS:

SEGMENT 4: Civilian Security Posture – How Americans Harden the Target
TITLE: Civilian Security Posture – How Americans Harden the Target
SUMMARY: Asymmetric warfare exploits open civilian environments by design. This segment delivers the practical civilian response – from situational awareness to family emergency action planning – for a multi-city soft target attack scenario.
LINKS:

SEGMENT 5: Strategic Outlook – What Comes Next in the Long War

SUMMARY: Iran has lost the conventional war but retains significant asymmetric capability through Hezbollah, proxy networks, and embedded assets – and the threat calendar for 2026 is loaded with high-visibility American soft target opportunities. This segment covers what comes next and how to position for it.

LINKS:

Stand by. Tomorrow night we hit the next phase: I will be back Sunday evening at 700pm ET with The C. Heaven Show. It’s my personal podcast that only goes to X @SurvivalReport and my Substack CHeaven.Substack.combecause I cover a bunch of zany stuff that would result in instant deplatforming on CommieTube and other platforms. We will resume our Long War series on Monday with Border to Interior – escalating homeland threat environment as global conflict spills into domestic security.

Godspeed,
Chris Heaven, CEO
Survival Dispatch

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THE NEXT LAYER IN RESILIENT COMMS

The POCLink PRO radio runs on Starlink, WiFi, and 4G – meaning you can still talk when cellular fails but internet stays up.

Your employer becomes the compliance officer in the third phase. We already live in a world where HR departments enforce ideological standards that go far beyond the workplace. Crisis conditions normalize accelerated enforcement. Noncompliant employees will be identified, flagged, and removed – all under the banner of keeping the organization safe.

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What’s happening at Crossroads this week?

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
March 19, 2026

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This Week at Crossroads….
THURSDAY, March 19

  • Book Club–6:00pm at Vickie’s house

SATURDAY, March 21

  • Men’s Club–7:00am at McDonalds in STV

SUNDAY, March 22

  • Worship–9:15am at the Church Building.  Bring your Bible to Service!
  • Choir practice following service

MONDAY, March 23

  • Church Board Meeting–1:00pm

WEDNESDAY, March 25

  • Women of Grace Quilting Group–10:00am-1:00pm at The Station Coffee Co in Florence
  • Lenten Soup supper and devotional–5:30pm at Steve and Marie’s house

FOR PASTORAL CARE NEEDS OR EMERGENCIES:

  • Contact Pastor Ryan at:
    • 206-356-7976
    • ryan@iamcrossroads.org

SUNDAY, March 15 RECAP

  • Attendance:  64
  • Giving for week of 3/8/26:  $2,625.80

SAVE THE DATE:

  • Palm Sunday–Sunday, March 29
  • Maundy Thursday–Thursday, April 2
  • Good Friday–Friday, April 3
  • Easter Sunday–Sunday, April 5
  • Easter Egg Hunt following service on Sunday, April 5 at the Church Building

Donate Now!MEET GODJOIN US ON YOUTUBE LIVE FOR SUNDAY SERVICEJoin us every Wednesday during Lent for a soup supper and Lenten devotional.  Each week will be hosted by a different host!  Host will provide a soup  while others will provide bread, salad, dessert and a drink.  Following supper, we will dive into a devotional centering around Jesus answering the question about his purpose:  Why Jesus Came.  

March 25 will be hosted by Steve and Marie

Interested in attending, hosting, or bringing a side?  Sign up at the Church or email admin@iamcrossroads.orgPRAYER CONCERNS:
————————————————————
*Kristie who is pregnant with twins
*Gary, Pastor Ryan’s dad,  who is recovering from surgery
*Jamie who is recovering from surgery
*Ray who is battling cancer
*The husband and seven children of Marie Lewis
*Give a healing heart, anxiety free, when meeting with a brother
*Healing for the following:  Caden, Lynette, Bob, Nicole, Cindy’s husband, Leo, Anon and Evie
*For safe travels for Jeri as she visits family

PRAYER JOYS
————————————————————
* The generous hearts of our congregation
* All those celebrating March birthdays, anniversaries and baptisms

CONTINUED PRAYERS:
————————————————————
* Pray for our leaders

MEET FRIENDSJoin us for Book Club and Fellowship on Thursday, March 19.  Our next book selection is:  The Hope of Glory:  Reflections on the Last Words of Jesus from the Cross by Jon Meacham.  

This book seems to be a bit harder to find.  You can find used copies on Amazon here or new in hardcover at Barnes and Noble here.  It appears easier to find in the electronic version via Kindle, Nook or Apple books.   If you need help purchasing a copy please talk to Rondi!

March Dinner Theme will be sloppy joes!  Please bring a side dish or dessert to share!  We will be meeting at Vickie’s house at 6:00pm for dinner and fellowship!  If interested please sign up at Church!MAKE LIFE BETTERThere is a family in the community that is in urgent need of various supplies after the death of the mother of the family.  The family consists of seven children ranging in age from 2-12.  Please bring any items to the church building as soon as possible.  STATION COFFEE CO. HAPPENINGSCopyright © 2023 Crossroads Church, All rights reserved.
Our Address Is:
2769 E. Combs Road Building D I San Tan Valley I AZ I 85140

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