I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis.
I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God.
I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree.
Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons.
I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA.
While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon..
In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God.
We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987).
From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting.
Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982.
I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects.
In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston.
In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018.
Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia.
In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey.
As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova.
Love and God Bless,
Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi
(1) Let every soul be subject to the governing authorities. For there is no authority except from God, and the authorities that exist are appointed by God. (2) Therefore whoever resists the authority resists the ordinance of God, and those who resist will bring judgment on themselves. (3) For rulers are not a terror to good works, but to evil. Do you want to be unafraid of the authority? Do what is good, and you will have praise from the same. (4) For he is God’s minister to you for good. But if you do evil, be afraid; for he does not bear the sword in vain; for he is God’s minister, an avenger to execute wrath on him who practices evil. (5) Therefore you must be subject, not only because of wrath but also for conscience’ sake. (6) For because of this you also pay taxes, for they are God’s ministers attending continually to this very thing. (7) Render therefore to all their due: taxes to whom taxes are due, customs to whom customs, fear to whom fear, honor to whom honor. New King James VersionChange email Bible version
Though all of us should understand obedience to the laws of man, it is good from time to time to ask, “Should we obey the governments of man over us?” Should we obey it if we consider it an “illegal” government?
The apostle Paul had to address this subject two thousand years ago in Romans 13. Albert Barnes in his Barnes’ Notessuggests what prompted Paul to write this to the Roman church:
In the seven first verses of this chapter, the apostle discusses the subject of the duty which Christians owe to civil government. . . . There is no doubt that he had express reference to the peculiar situation of the Christians at Rome; but the subject was of so much importance that he gives it a general bearing, and states the great principles on which all Christians are to act. The circumstances which made this discussion proper and important were the following: (1.) The Christian religion was designed to extend throughout the world. . . . Christians professed supreme allegiance to the Lord Jesus Christ; he was their lawgiver, their sovereign, their judge. It became, therefore, a question of great importance and difficulty, what kind of allegiance they were to render to earthly magistrates. (2.) The kingdoms of the world were then pagan kingdoms. The laws were made by pagans, and were adapted to the prevalence of heathenism. Those kingdoms had been generally founded in conquest, blood, and oppression. Many of the monarchs were bloodstained warriors; were unprincipled men; and were polluted in private, and oppressive in their public character. Whether Christians were to acknowledge the laws of such kingdoms and of such men, was a serious question. . . . Soon the hands of these magistrates were to be raised against Christians in the fiery scenes of persecution; and the duty and extent of submission to them became a matter of very serious inquiry. (“Romans,” p. 284.)
The phrase “let every soul be subject” is a military term implying subordination. It is a willingness to occupy our proper place, to yield to the authority over us. That these governing authorities are “appointed by God” stems from another military term denoting the order or organization found in a military unit. Not only should we be subject, but we should submit in the knowledge that God Himself has had a hand in allowing them to exist!
Paul’s conclusion flows naturally from this. Those who resist, or rebel against, man’s governments also resist the ordinance of God! What God has ordained we should obey! This means we are to regard man’s governments as instituted by God and agreeable to His will. This is a hard pill to swallow for those who consider themselves sovereign!
Paul continues with his instruction with a warning that, if we break the law, we will be punished by the civil government as lawbreakers. Those in authority generally do not punish people for doing good, but they have God-given authority to punish those who do not accept their rule and laws. The apostle says we should be afraid to break man’s laws because his government administrators are really “God’s ministers”! They are servants of God! Thus, we should be subject, not just for fear of punishment, but also for conscience’ sake.
He concludes the section with specific instruction concerning taxes, custom, obedience, and respect. He says, “Pay your taxes and your fines. Obey the laws and respect government officials.” Sovereign citizens directly disobey this explicit command of God’s Word on each count!
Many who complain about the government over us fail to remember the example of our Savior Jesus Christ. He and His apostles lived under an “illegal” government for years; they were subject to Roman conquerors who levied stiff taxes and brutally oppressed freedoms. But what was Jesus’ instruction, specifically regarding taxes?
[The Pharisees asked,] “Is it lawful to pay taxes to Caesar, or not?” But Jesus perceived their wickedness, and said, “Why do you test Me, you hypocrites? Show me the tax money.” So they brought Him a denarius. And He said to them, “Whose image and inscription is this?” They said to Him, “Caesar’s.” And He said to them, “Render therefore to Caesar the things that are Caesar’s, and to God the things that are God’s” (Matthew 22:17-21)
Thus, Jesus advises us to pay our taxes, as He also paid them. Matthew 17:24-27 shows that He paid the Temple tax as well.
Some, considering this world to be Babylon, refuse to come under its laws. Though this world is truly Babylon the Great (Revelation 18), these people also forget the examples of Daniel, Shadrach, Meshach, and Abed-Nego. These men not only lived in literal Babylon, but also served in Nebuchadnezzar’s government, giving great honor and loyalty to the king. When Babylon’s laws conflicted with God’s laws, as in the case of idolatry (Daniel 3), they stood rock solid for God’s way, willing to take whatever punishment the civil government gave them. This is the principle we should always follow (Acts 5:29).
God has appointed authority over men to bring order to our society, and in bringing order, He has given each of us an opportunity to learn the lesson of how to submit to government. This is a lesson we all must learn, for even Christ is subject to the Father (I Corinthians 15:23-28)!
Some investors even joke that Burry called “20 of the past two market crashes.”
Put simply, if you make a lot of “bearish” calls – you’re bound to get a few correct. This time, he claimed that the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index is due for a “dramatic reversal.” Burry cited the recent “parabolic” surge that drove the valuations of tech stocks sky-high.
In his warning, Burry put the Nasdaq 100’s valuation at 43 times earnings. As he said, that’s far higher than the implied level of roughly 30 times.
As you can guess, Burry cited numerous other reasons investors should feel nervous.
However, Burry’s claims may not be as dire as he makes them sound…
Burry’s Strong Claims Stoke Investor Fear
Burry enjoys making bold claims with vivid imagery. I’ll list three of these quotes below…
The Nasdaq 100 is the “scene of the bloody car crash, minutes before it happens.”
Not selling and taking profits “is betting on one’s own ability to jump off at or near the top.”
“History tells us that even if the party goes on for another week, month, three months or year, the resolution will be to much lower prices.”
Of course, we know the stock market doesn’t move higher in a straight line. Markets rise and fall.
But looking beyond the fearmongering headlines about this new warning, Burry’s claims that a crash will come anytime within a week to a year are too broad. And they’re meant to incite fear of losing vast amounts of wealth.
It’s almost like a weather forecaster telling viewers there will be a deadly storm sometime this summer.
Simply put, I think there’s something deeper at play here…Recommended Links:
Gabe Marshank – who made $100 million in profits TWICE by spotting this exact setup before – says the same signal is flashing again. He says the biggest gains could come to those who make one straightforward move before June 1. Instead of briefing billionaire hedge-fund owners, he’s going public (for only the second time ever). Click here now to see his urgent free presentation.You see, Burry disclosed in his warning that he holds a “significant leveraged short position” against a group of companies.
That means Burry makes money as these stocks fall. And if investors heed his warning and sell, these stocks may fall further – and faster.
I don’t think investors want to imagine their portfolios as a “bloody car crash.” It’s critical to separate emotions from the facts.
And as it stands right now, I’m not buying this call about the Nasdaq 100 falling completely off a cliff. To show you why, let’s take a deeper look in the Power Gauge…
The Power Gauge Is ‘Very Bullish’ on the Nasdaq 100
As longtime readers know, we track the Nasdaq 100 in our system through the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).
Since the start of the year, this exchange-traded fund is up about 15%. That’s almost double the growth of the State Street SPDR S&P 500 Fund (SPY), which we use to measure the broad market.
Two major factors stand out to me here…
First, QQQ currently gets a “very bullish” rating in the Power Gauge. Put simply, our system still sees upside ahead for the fund.
Second, the fund’s Chaikin Money Flow is incredibly strong. In fact, just this past Monday, this measure of “smart money” buying activity on Wall Street hit its highest point in 12 months.
Take a look at the below chart of QQQ with some data from the Power Gauge…Notably, the massive smart-money support is encouraging. An immediate crash for any investment with this much smart money behind it is rare.
Folks, all this isn’t to say that QQQ – or stocks in general – won’t take a breather. Pullbacks are just part of markets. And as we all know, things can change fast. We just saw stocks take a dip yesterday.
But at first glance, the headlines about Burry’s claims might have you think a catastrophic crash in QQQ and tech stocks is right around the corner. And for now, the Power Gauge disagrees.
Good investing,
Vic Lederman
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors # HLD: BULLISH NEUTRAL BEARISHDow 30+0.16%716 7S&P 500-0.15%127254 117NASDAQ-0.85%2649 26Small Caps-0.97%552993 318Bonds-0.67% Health Care+1.96%1232 14
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks are somewhat Bullish. Major indexes are mixed.* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 daysInformation Technology+5.78%Materials+1.18%Industrials+1.13%Real Estate+0.93%Staples+0.45%Health Care+0.38%Communication+0.20%Discretionary+0.19%Financial-0.02%Utilities-2.54%Energy-3.16%* * * *
Industry Focus
Aerospace & Defense827 5
Over the past 6 months, the Aerospace & Defense subsector (XAR) has outperformed the S&P 500by 6.24%. Its Power Bar ratio which measures future potential is Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #14 of 21subsectors and has moved down 2 slots over the past week.Top StocksATIATI Inc.CWCurtiss-Wright CorporationVVXV2X, Inc.* * * *
Earnings SurprisesQBTS D-Wave Quantum Inc.Q1$-0.04Beat by $0.04ONON On Holding AGQ1$0.46Beat by $0.13BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLCQ1$0.14Missed by $-0.04Q Qnity Electronics, Inc.Q1$1.08Beat by $0.16RAL Ralliant CorporationQ1$0.57Beat by $0.08* * * *
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That date matters because I believe it may mark the end of a brief period when ordinary investors still have time to position themselves in what I believe is a highly unusual pre-IPO setup.
I believe we are in the final stretch of a quiet accumulation window.
And when that kind of window closes, it tends to close fast.
The reason I’m so focused on this is simple.
The market is obsessed with the obvious name.
I’m focused on the secondary beneficiary.
That’s often where the asymmetry is.
That’s often where informed investors can still get in before the crowd.
And that’s why I want you to review this now, while time is still on your side.
After that, I believe this setup could start attracting much wider attention.
Yours for peace, prosperity, and liberty, AEIOU,
Dr. Mark Skousen Macroeconomic Strategist, The Oxford Club
Today’s Bonus Content
TFI Earnings Beat: Is This Stock the Freight Recovery King?
Author: Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Posted: 4/30/2026.
Key Points
TFI International’s Less-Than-Truckload segment experienced a dramatic positive reversal in shipment volumes, signaling a sustainable demand recovery.
TFI International is achieving higher revenue per truck by intentionally reducing its fleet size, proving a strong focus on profitability over market share.
Following a strong earnings beat and improved guidance, Wall Street analysts are upgrading their ratings and price targets for the company.
The transportation sector continues to weather a protracted freight recession, with persistent margin compression and volume headwinds challenging even the most established operators. Against this difficult backdrop, TFI International (NYSE: TFII)delivered first-quarter results that suggest a cyclical bottom may be forming for best-in-class logistics companies. TFI International’s ability to manage operational levers and maintain profitability in a weak market signals a potential turning point, positioning it to capture significant upside as supply chains normalize and industrial activity rebounds.
From Deep Freeze to Spring Thaw
The most compelling evidence of a market shift lies within TFI International’s Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment, its largest division by revenue. The segment experienced a dramatic intra-quarter reversal that far outpaced broader market trends. After starting the year with a 10% year-over-year decline in shipment volumes in January, worsened by severe weather, momentum shifted sharply, with March volumes expanding by 8%.
Management confirmed on its April 27, 2026, earnings call that this positive trend has continued into the second quarter, suggesting the demand inflection is not just a temporary rebound, but the start of a more sustainable recovery.
This volume inflection is the direct catalyst behind management’s aggressive forward guidance. TFI expects a sequential improvement of 400–500 basis points in its consolidated operating ratio (OR) for Q2. The LTL segment is forecast to lead that improvement with a remarkable 600–700 basis-point sequential OR gain.
As volumes return, TFI International’s leaner cost structure and improved network density should allow a larger share of revenue to flow through to operating income. This improvement is further supported by the delayed implementation of a general rate increase (GRI) in mid-March, which should provide a pricing tailwind through the second quarter. While TFI International’s service levels are still being refined to match industry leaders, the volume recovery gives it the operational leverage needed to become more selective with freight and begin closing the pricing gap with peers.
The Art of Shrinking to Grow
While the LTL segment shows signs of a volume recovery, the Truckload division demonstrates the value of disciplined fleet management and a strategic market focus. TFI grew its revenue per truck per week, excluding fuel surcharges, by 8.6% in the first quarter. This was accomplished while simultaneously reducing its total truck count by 7.1%.
This dynamic of running fewer assets while generating higher revenue per unit is a clear sign of a management team focused on productivity and profitability over sheer market share. It reflects a cultural shift, particularly within the legacy Daseke operations, from being good truckers to being good businessmen who prioritize return on invested capital.
This operational discipline is translating directly into pricing power, particularly in TFI International’s industrial-focused end markets. Management noted that recent U.S. flatbed contract renewals are coming in at high-single to low-double-digit increases. This pricing strength is partially driven by tightening capacity across the U.S. and Canada, as regulatory actions have removed unsafe and non-compliant operators from the market. By focusing on industrial freight, such as the rapidly growing logistics for data center construction, which grew from $8 million to $21 million in revenue year over year, TFI insulates itself from the volatility of retail-centric freight and aligns with a potential North American industrial renaissance.
The Political Risk Masking TFI’s True Potential
Despite the strong quarterly performance and optimistic Q2 outlook, management has refrained from issuing full-year 2026 guidance. This caution is primarily tied to geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, specifically the mandatory joint review of the USMCA (CUSMA) trade agreement scheduled for July 2026. This event creates a certainty cliff for cross-border freight, a highly profitable business for TFI. While this presents a near-term risk that tempers full-year forecasts, it also creates a coiled-spring scenario. A smooth and favorable resolution to the trade pact review would likely trigger a significant relief rally and force analysts to revise full-year estimates upward.
TFI International’s capital allocation strategy underscores its internal confidence. Within the earnings report, the board approved a 4% increasein the quarterly dividend to 47 cents per share. This move came even as Q1 free cash flow declined year over year to $123.7 million, a dip management attributed to a temporary working capital distortion due to the timing of fuel payments. Raising the dividend against this backdrop signals confidence in the sustainability of future cash flows and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders throughout the economic cycle.
TFI International Charts a New Course
The first-quarter earnings beat and strong guidance were major catalysts for TFI International, sending shares to a new 52-week high on heavy volume. The stock’s performance reflects the emerging narrative, with a year-to-date return of over 35%.
Sell-side analysts have moved quickly to validate the thesis. Following the report, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy and raised its price target to a street-high $161. The current consensus rating stands at Moderate Buy, reflecting a mix of bullish outlooks and some analysts waiting for further confirmation of the recovery.
Investors seeking exposure to the freight cycle may find TFI International’s demonstrated operational control a compelling reason to add the stock to their watchlist. While macroeconomic risks tied to trade policy and fuel costs persist, TFI International’s ability to drive a margin inflection before a full-blown market recovery sets it apart. Those with a higher risk tolerance might view the current momentum as the beginning of a sustained cyclical upswing, whereas more cautious investors may prefer to wait for a potential consolidation before establishing a position.
Today’s Bonus Content
MercadoLibre Boldly Invests in Growth: Discount Deepens
Author: Thomas Hughes. Posted: 5/11/2026.
Key Points
MercadoLibre’s strategy, which works, is also a hindrance as it involves significant upfront investment to drive profitable growth.
Growth outperforms, reaching a hyperpace in Q1 as efforts gain traction.
Analysts trimmed targets in Q2 2026 but continue to rate it as a Moderate Buy with a 50% upside potential.
MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) reported a robust Q1 result, but there was one issue: margins contracted, and guidance suggests that pressure will continue. That has left some investors feeling a bit squeamish.
However, this company has long followed a spend-first, grow-later model while building out its robust Latin American eCommerce empire. Spending has been focused on its ecosystem, fulfillment network, merchants, and consumer acquisition.
The net result is continued growth that remains impressive, while spending can be controlled over time. This stock is moving lower on emotion, not fundamentals, and appears to be setting up for a solid rebound in the near future. According to CFO Martín de los Santos, the impact is profitable.
While spending is up, it is by choice and offset by declining operating costs in maturing markets.
MercadoLibre Outperforms in Q1, Metrics Point to Acceleration
MercadoLibre had a solid Q1 2026, with revenue growing by nearly 50% to $8.85 billion. The top line beat MarketBeat’s consensus estimate by more than 625 basis points (bps), with strength across the platform. Brazil was mentioned several times in the report, but gains were also made in Mexico and other key growth markets as the company improves penetration and takes share from traditional retailers.
Internal metrics point to further acceleration. On the commerce side, total payment volume increased by 50%, items sold rose by 47%, and items per client increased by 16%. On the fintech side, the company’s credit portfolio grew by 87% as consumers leaned into card services, monthly active users increased by 29%, and assets under management rose by 77%.
Even the margin news wasn’t entirely negative. The company reported another contraction, but revenue strength helped offset the weakness. The result was $8.23 in GAAP earnings, 3 cents better than expected, with revenue strength expected to continue. Assuming the 2026 spending plans deliver the same results as in the past, the likely outcome is that MELI continues to drive hypergrowth and cash flow across its network, outperforming on a quarterly basis.
Analysts’ Sentiment Weighs on Market: Rebound Potential Improves
The analyst reaction was to be expected, with numerous price-target cuts following the release. Trends are pointing to the low end, but even that still offers some upside for the stock, with as much as 50% upside possible at the consensus target. The market will likely struggle to gain traction until analyst trends improve. Until then, the group of 19 analysts MarketBeat tracks rates MELI as a Moderate Buy with 78% Buy-side bias, and institutions to which the analysts cater are buying.
Data show institutions owning nearly 90% of MercadoLibre stock and buying on balance over the trailing 12 months. Their activity ramped sequentially into Q1 2026, only pausing in early Q2 to wait for the release. The likely outcome is that institutions continue accumulating on balance, as the fundamental story has only strengthened. MELI will likely slow spending in the coming years, improve its margins, and generate considerable cash flow for investors over time.
MercadoLibre’s balance sheet presents no red flags. The company is well-capitalized, has little to no significant long-term debt, and improving equity. The biggest risk is execution, but that appears limited at this time, though there are still hurdles to cross. The company’s rapid credit portfolio expansion exposes it to rising consumer risk, as evidenced by growing debt write-offs, and there is concern that the situation could worsen.
MELI Stock Sets Fresh Low: Oversold and Ready to Rebound
MELI’s stock price action moved lower and set a fresh low following the release, but indicators including MACD and stochastic suggest the downtrend is nearing an end. They diverge from the lows, highlighting underlying market strength and suggesting the bulls are regaining control. The risk is that MELI continues to move lower, potentially hitting $1,400 before the bottom is in. MELI stock will likely hit fresh highs once its rebound begins, underpinned by an expanded marketplace, improved penetration, and margin improvement.
Catalysts include the rapidly expanding fulfillment center network and lower thresholds for free shipping. The combination is driving profitable scale, as revenue leverage offsets the increased cost and improves consumer satisfaction and ongoing business. The company plans to add more than a dozen centers in its core market by year-end. Fintech is another catalyst, with the company’s portfolio and services integration driving growth. Mercado Pago, the fintech arm, is transitioning from a mere payment platform into a full-service fintech capable of self-sustaining operational growth.
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A new campaign aims to strip naturalized Americans of their citizenship, and the criteria of who will be targeted are now being announced. The Trump administration says it will expand its use of denaturalization, which until now was a rarely used power. 🎧 Listen →
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One of the most closely watched earnings reports of the year is coming up. Nvidia closes the books on fiscal Q1 2027 after the bell on May 20th and if the external data building around it is any guide, the company has not slowed down.
What happened in fiscal 2026 is worth stating plainly: $215.9 billion in total revenue, up 65% year over year. Data center alone hit $197.3 billion — more than double the $115.2 billion it posted the year prior. Q4 FY2026 came in at $68.1 billion, clearing the $66.2 billion Wall Street estimate, with GAAP gross margins at 75%. Management then guided Q1 FY2027 at $78 billion, a number that itself arrived above what analysts had penciled in. That’s the baseline.
The harder question isn’t whether Nvidia is executing. It clearly is. The harder question is whether May 20 delivers anything the market doesn’t already know.
A Quick Company Snapshot
Nvidia holds over 90% market share in data center GPUs. That number gets cited constantly, but the more durable moat is CUDA — the software platform Nvidia introduced in 2006 that became the default language of AI development. Over 4 million developers build on CUDA. Every major AI framework, including PyTorch and TensorFlow, runs on it. You don’t walk away from two decades of tooling investment just because a competitor ships a faster chip.
Revenue now breaks across four segments: Data Center at over 91% of total sales, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive. Gaming still matters at the margin. Data center is the whole business.
Consensus sits at approximately $78.8 billion in revenue and $1.78 EPS for Q1 FY2027. A few estimates have quietly drifted higher — ChartMill’s aggregated consensus is now at $80.1 billion in revenue and $1.79 EPS. That divergence matters. If the effective bar heading into May 20 is closer to $79–80 billion, hitting the company’s own $78 billion guidance target may not generate much of a reaction in either direction.
The specific metrics worth tracking:
Data center revenue: Q4 FY2026 was $62.3 billion, up 75% year over year. Q1 FY2026 data center was $39.1 billion — the year-over-year comparison is favorable and the trajectory is expected to hold
Gross margin: Management guided GAAP gross margins of ~74.9% and non-GAAP at ~75.0% for Q1. Full-year FY2026 came in at 71.1% GAAP and 71.3% non-GAAP — the sequential improvement is the story here
EPS: Consensus range is $1.74–$1.79. Full-year FY2026 non-GAAP EPS was $4.77; FY2027 consensus is $8.34, which would represent a near-doubling in a single year
Q2 FY2027 guidance: Consensus is around $86.6 billion, representing roughly 85% year-over-year growth. This number — not the Q1 result — will drive the post-earnings reaction
Free cash flow and balance sheet: Nvidia generated $97 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2026, returned $41 billion to shareholders, and enters Q1 with $51.1 billion in net cash
One accounting change to flag. Starting in Q1 FY2027, Nvidia will include stock-based compensation in its non-GAAP financial measures. That adds roughly $1.9 billion to non-GAAP operating expenses and compresses non-GAAP gross margin by approximately 0.1%. Year-over-year EPS comparisons will not be clean without adjusting for this shift.
What Analysts Are Actually Saying
Goldman Sachs — Buy, $250 price target. Internal estimates run 14–34% above broader Wall Street consensus through FY2027
Susquehanna (Christopher Rolland) — Buy, target raised to $275 from $250. Cites surging hyperscaler capex and combined Blackwell/Rubin revenue that could exceed $1 trillion through 2027
38+ firm consensus — Strong Buy. Median 12-month price target near $265–$267, implying roughly 20–24% upside from current levels near $220
Price target range — Tigress Financial high at $360; consensus low at $210
Why Forward Estimates May Still Be Too Low
The hyperscaler capex figures that have been filed and reported over the last several months are, frankly, larger than most analysts were modeling at the start of 2026. Microsoft announced $190 billion in planned AI capex for the calendar year — well above the $154 billion Wall Street had been using. Meta raised its ceiling to $145 billion. Alphabet’s guidance reached up to $190 billion. Amazon committed $200 billion. Morgan Stanley’s latest forecast puts combined capex among the five largest hyperscalers at approximately $805 billion in 2026, representing nearly 80% growth year over year, followed by an additional 39% increase to $1.1 trillion in 2027.
You don’t build $800 billion worth of AI infrastructure without GPUs. And at this scale, there is no GPU supplier that can absorb that demand except Nvidia.
Slight tangent, but it matters: the valuation here is not as stretched as it looks on the surface. Nvidia’s non-GAAP EPS for FY2026 was $4.77, implying a forward P/E of approximately 40.5 on those earnings. On FY2027 consensus EPS of $8.34, the forward multiple drops to roughly 23.8x — actually the lowest next-twelve-month P/E among its closest peers. Broadcom trades at 31.3x. ASML at 36.1x. High-growth business, lower forward multiple. That’s the part people skip.
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Blackwell Ultra is the dominant shipping architecture right now, with prior-generation Blackwell still seeing active demand. CFO Colette Kress confirmed on the Q4 call that Nvidia shipped first Vera Rubin samples to customers in late February 2026 and remains on track for full production in the second half of this year.
The Rubin platform is a meaningful performance step forward. Key numbers versus Blackwell:
Up to 10x reduction in inference token cost
4x fewer GPUs required to train mixture-of-experts models
Up to 18x faster rack assembly and servicing via modular, cable-free tray design
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Early adopters confirmed for H2 2026 deployment include AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, alongside cloud partners CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, and Nscale. OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and xAI have all committed to Rubin for training larger models and running long-context multimodal systems.
One wrinkle: TrendForce estimates Rubin’s share of Nvidia’s overall 2026 shipments will land around 22%, below earlier projections of 29%, due to challenges with HBM4 memory validation, cooling optimization, and interconnect transitions. Blackwell is expected to hold over 70% of shipments. Analysts characterize any deferral as a timing issue rather than a demand problem — but that’s a distinction worth pressing on during the May 20 earnings call.
China: The Wildcard in the Guidance
Nvidia’s Q1 FY2027 guidance assumes zero China data center compute revenue. That has been the working assumption since the U.S. government required export licenses for H20 shipments to China in April 2025 — a restriction that triggered a $4.5 billion inventory charge in Q1 FY2026, the single largest export-related write-down in the company’s history.
The situation has partially shifted. Jensen Huang confirmed at GTC 2026 that Nvidia received purchase orders for H200 chips from ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent — over 400,000 units combined — following clearances from both U.S. and Chinese authorities. A 15% fee on those China sales, paid to the Department of Commerce, was implemented as a condition of the export license. Analysts estimate that a reopened China market represents a $5–10 billion annual revenue opportunity. None of that is reflected in current guidance. If any of it shows up in Q1 actuals or Q2 guidance language, it is pure upside to published estimates.
Three Ways This Quarter Plays Out
Bull case: Q1 revenue clears $80 billion. Q2 guidance lands at $88–90 billion or above. Management provides updated language on demand visibility into H2 2026 and beyond. Any positive China data center commentary adds further. Gross margins hold at 74–75% non-GAAP, confirming the Blackwell ramp is not compressing profitability. In this scenario, FY2027 EPS estimates move higher and the valuation re-rates from current levels.
Base case: Q1 revenue lands in the $78–80 billion range. Q2 guidance meets consensus near $86–87 billion. Gross margins hold. The stock drifts — the result is solid but investors had already expected solid. This is the scenario where the stock’s 15% year-to-date gain and high pre-earnings positioning work against a meaningful move in either direction.
Bear case: Q1 revenue hits management’s $78 billion guidance but falls short of the $79–80 billion the market has quietly priced in. Q2 guidance comes in below $86 billion. Gross margins disappoint at the low end of the guided range. Negative commentary on Rubin timing, hyperscaler capex durability, or China export complications amplifies the downside. Worth noting: post-earnings declines in Nvidia are not unusual even on beat quarters. The Q4 FY2026 report saw the stock rally initially and then give back most of those gains despite beating both the top and bottom line.
Five Things to Watch on the Call
Q2 revenue guidance vs. $86.6B consensus — this is the single number that determines the reaction, full stop
Rubin production timeline — any update on the H2 2026 schedule and early customer demand signals
China commentary — whether H200 revenue appears in Q1 actuals or gets incorporated into Q2 guidance language
Gross margin trajectory — management has targeted the mid-70s; watch whether they reaffirm or soften that language
Hyperscaler concentration — cloud providers represented just under 50% of data center revenue in recent quarters; any shift in customer mix changes how durable the demand base looks through 2027
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The fundamental case for Nvidia is not a subtle one. Hyperscalers are committing more capital to AI infrastructure than Wall Street modeled at the start of 2026 — significantly more. Blackwell is in full production. Rubin is shipping samples with confirmed production launches in H2 2026. The company holds $51 billion in net cash, generated $97 billion in free cash flow last fiscal year, and trades at a lower forward earnings multiple than most semiconductor peers despite meaningfully higher growth rates.
The harder question is how much of that is actually unknown to the market heading into May 20. The stock is up 15% year to date. Expectations are high — probably higher than stated consensus reflects. Meeting guidance but not exceeding it may not be enough to push the stock higher from here.
If Q2 guidance clears $86.6 billion and China access gets folded into the forward outlook, that’s a different situation entirely. If neither happens, this could be one of those quarters where a strong result goes nowhere fast.
Watch the Q2 guidance number above everything else. That’s the real signal on May 20.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk.
The Cheap Investor is a publication of Investing Media Solutions, LLC.
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Today’s Bonus Story
Nebius Breaks Out to All-Time Highs—Here’s What’s Driving It.
Written by Ryan Hasson. Date Posted: 5/5/2026.
Key Points
Nebius Group announced a $643 million acquisition of Eigen AI, driving NBIS shares to an all-time high of $176.42 on May 4.
The company holds a contracted backlog approaching $50 billion, anchored by major commitments from Meta, Microsoft, and a $2 billion NVIDIA investment.
Investors will want to watch the May 13 earnings report for ARR trajectory, hyperscaler deployment updates, and guidance on the Eigen AI integration timeline.
Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) has been one of the market’s most extraordinary stories over the past year, and this week the momentum has accelerated even further. The stock closed Monday, May 4, at a new all-time high of $176.42, up more than 14% on the day and roughly 600% over the past 12 months.
For investors who have followed the Nebius story since its early days as a small-cap AI infrastructure play with minimal analyst coverage and $120 million in annualized revenue, the transformation has been nothing short of remarkable.
And the catalyst behind this week’s breakoutis anything but noise. Here’s what is driving the latest momentum in NBIS, and what investors should watch next.
The Catalyst: Eigen AI
On May 1, Nebius announced it had agreed to acquire Eigen AI for $643 million. Eigen is an inference and model-optimization specialist focused on making AI model deployment faster and cheaper by reducing compute and memory requirements. The acquisition is strategically significant. Nebius plans to integrate Eigen’s technology directly into its Token Factory managed inference platform, enabling developers to deploy, refine, and scale AI models more efficiently on Nebius infrastructure.
The deal signals something important about where Nebius is headed as a business. The company has spent the past year building the physical infrastructure layer of the AI cloud stack: large-scale GPU clusters, data centers, and cloud services. The Eigen acquisition represents a deliberate move up the stack toward higher-margin, software-defined services. And for a company guiding toward $3 billion to $3.4 billion in 2026 revenue, expanding the platform’s capabilities and margin profile at this stage of growth is the right move.
The Foundation Underneath the Move
It is worth stepping back and appreciating what sits beneath these latest catalysts. Nebius enters this breakout with a contracted backlog approaching $50 billion, anchored by a $27 billion multi-year deal with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), up to a $19.4 billion commitment from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and a $2 billion strategic investmentfrom NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA). Management has guided for 2026 revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, up from $530 million in full-year 2025.
The company recently closed a $4.34 billion convertible debt financing round, giving it the financial firepower to execute on its aggressive capital plan without being constrained by its balance sheet. Q1 2026 earnings are due May 13, with analysts projecting a significant sequential revenue jump from Q4’s $227.7 million.
For a company that had almost no analyst coverage and $120 million in annualized revenue roughly 18 months ago, the scale and pace of that transformation is difficult to overstate. The overall consensus among analysts covering the stock remains bullish, with a Moderate Buy rating and a consensus price target of $154.75. As of May 5, the company had 15 analyst ratings, but that wasn’t always the case. In May of last year, the stock was covered by only two analysts, with a consensus price target of $45, when it was trading at almost $26 a share.
The Technical Picture
Of course, the company has gone from strength to strength, as shown by the stock’s rapid appreciation. With NBIS near all-time highs and up more than 100% on the year, disciplined investors probably do not want to chase the current price.
However, after earnings, if the stock beats expectations and issues strong guidance, a new opportunity could emerge. If the stock establishes a fresh base and consolidates above prior resistance near $160, a subsequent breakout could be the trigger that investors on the sidelines are waiting for.
What to Watch Next
The May 13 earnings report is the next major event on the calendar. Investors will be focused on three things: the ARR trajectory and whether it is tracking toward the $7 billion to $9 billion full-year 2026 target, operational updates on the Meta and Microsoft hyperscaler deployments, and early commentary on the Eigen AI integration timeline.
For a stock trading at all-time highs after a near-600% run over the past year, the bar heading into earnings is high. But with the Eigen acquisition expanding the platform’s capabilities, the contracted backlog providing revenue visibility that few AI infrastructure companies can match, and a growing roster of top-tier analysts now covering the name, the fundamental momentum heading into that report looks as strong as it has ever been.
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Several factors, including store count growth and positive same-store sales comps, position the business to accelerate revenue growth, while the reduced share count provides investors with additional leverage. The likely outcome is that Chipotle Mexican Grill will continue to perform well in 2026, outperform estimates, and sustain a bullish analyst revision cycle.
The key operational factor in 2026 is comps. The company has struggled with comps over the past year or so, relying heavily on new store openings to drive growth.
Now, with store count up on a one-year, two-year, five-year, and 10-year basis, and expected to keep growing, positive comps should magnify the impact. Questions about durability can be answered by this year’s jobless claims data, which inflected to contraction in January, suggesting improving labor market conditions and consumer strength in 2026.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Provides Shareholders With Leverage
Share buybacks are critical to this equation. The company generates ample free cash flow, has no debt other than its long-term lease obligations, and aggressively repurchases shares. Trailing 12-month activity resulted in a 4.3% average decline in share count in Q1, and future buybacks are expected. One catalyst for share price action is an anticipated increase in buyback activity, which could come at any time.
The balance sheet raises a red flag, as the company’s equity has declined by nearly 15% year over year (YOY). However, the decline is largely due to a reduction in share count and, to a lesser degree, margin impairment, both of which are expected to reverse in upcoming quarters. Improving same-store sales point to better unit economics and stronger margins for this consumer favorite. Until then, the balance sheet remains healthy, enabling the company to continue executing its strategy. That includes expansion of domestic and international store counts, potentially doubling the company’s footprint within the next five to seven years.
Valuation metrics also align with the outlook for a robust increase in stock prices. The 28X current-year earnings at which the company trades in 2026 is a bit rich; however, it reflects a solid outlook that is likely still cautious. In this scenario, consensus forecasts put the stock under 10X earnings at the 7-year point, suggesting 100% upside relative to the broad market average and as much as 200% if the company sustains a premium. If the forecasts prove to be cautious, as is likely, the upside potential could be even greater.
Analysts and Institutions Drive CMG Stock Into Reversal
Analysts are responding with cautious optimism. Although margin pressures remain a concern, many have pointed to the positive inflection in comps as a catalyst for the stock. That inflection signals traction with the Recipe for Growth strategy, leading to reaffirmed price targets and ratings.
As it stands, the 35 analysts MarketBeat tracked in late April carried a consensus rating of Moderate Buy; there is a 65% buy-side bias and no Sell ratings. The consensus price target implies 40% upside from the critical support level, with higher highs likely if momentum builds in Q2.
Post-release price action was bullish, with the stock rising 5% in after-hours and premarket trading, likely underpinned by institutions. The group owns more than 90% of the stock and has been aggressively accumulating while shares traded at long-term lows.
MarketBeat data shows a $1.5-to-$1 pace over the trailing 12 months, with activity ramping sequentially into Q1 2026. The balance in early Q2 sustained the bullish pace and will likely accelerate, given the catalysts in Q1 results.
Double-Bottom in Play for CMG Stock
CMG’s price action aligns with a double bottom, but it has not yet cleared the critical hurdles. While support is evident at the long-term lows and is likely to hold, resistance near $36, $37, and $40 may cap gains in the near term. Longer term, the key resistance level is near $40, aligned with the long-term 150-week exponential moving average and a pivot point crossed in mid-2025. A move above that level would signal a major shift in the market and could lead to fresh all-time highs within the next few quarters.
Chipotle’s biggest risks this year are inflationary pressures and international expansion. Inflation, particularly in beef and cooking oils, is eroding results, while geopolitical tensions threaten the pace of expansion. Beef prices, which remain high amid tight supply, are not expected to moderate until next year, if at all, while international expansion plans may be thwarted in Kuwait and the UAE, both precariously close to regional conflict zones. Delays will be reflected in the stock price.
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Hims & Hers Earnings Preview: The Novo Nordisk Shift Puts GLP-1 Strategy in Focus
Written by Jessica Mitacek on May 8, 2026
Key Points
Following a settled legal dispute with Novo Nordisk, HIMS has transitioned from selling compounded weight-loss drugs to offering brand-name Wegovy and Ozempic.
While the deal was finalized in March, investors are eager to see if this pivot will boost the top line or if the financial impact likely won’t be seen until Q2.
Despite its recent rally, the stock remains highly volatile with short interest exceeding 35%.
Healthcare stocks have struggled in 2026. With a year-to-date (YTD) loss of about 6%, that corner of the market has been the worst performer among all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 in 2026.
While that has been reflected in the YTD losses of some of Big Pharma’s biggest names, it has also adversely affected mid-cap stocks like telehealth platform Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS), which has fallen by more than 23% in 2026.
One day after a big announcement from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) caused shares of HIMS to jump by nearly 4%, the stock gave it all back on Thursday, falling by nearly 5% as traders locked in profits.
But that wasn’t enough to derail the stock’s recent rally, which has seen HIMS gain nearly 32% over the past month and around 77% since its 52-week low on Feb. 27. As the company prepares to report Q1 2026 earnings on May 11, here’s what investors should watch for.
Is the Novo Nordisk Partnership Already Paying Off?
Following a well-publicized legal disputeearlier this year with Denmark-based Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO)—the eighth largest publicly traded pharmaceutical company in the world with a market cap of more than $204 billion—it’s been smooth sailing for Hims & Hers.
Since Novo Nordisk dropped its patent infringement lawsuit on March 9, HIMS has been on a tear. Not only did the Danish firm abandon its case, but it also reached a deal that allows Hims & Hers to sell Novo Nordisk’s brand-name Wegovy and Ozempic through its direct-to-consumer and virtual medical services platform.
As part of that deal, Hims & Hers agreed to stop advertising its compounded GLP-1 products, which given the FDA’s announcement that it is proposing that semaglutide, tirzepatide, and liraglutide be excluded from its 503B bulks list, could prove prescient for the company.
Wall Street will be looking for how that deal has impacted Hims & Hers’ top line. Despite the strategic shift being announced on March 9, Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 products were not available for sale through the online platform until March 26. The books for Q1 closed on March 31, so those gross sales may not materialize on Hims & Hers’ income statement until Q2.
Will Hims & Hers Continue to Show Subscriber Growth?
The market will also be looking for confirmation that Hims & Hers’ total subscribers are holding above 2.5 million, if not steadily growing from there. That benchmark was reached near the end of 2025 and marked a more than 16% increase from the 2.2 million subscribers the company had at the end of 2024.
That growth is proving to be sustainable, after Hims & Hers ended 2023 with 1.5 million. But more important than the raw subscriber count is how the telehealth company generates 90% of its recurring revenue from its customer base.
Approximately 82% of its users remain on the platform for more than three months, and if Hims & Hers can demonstrate that it is sustainable, it should bolster full-year guidance.
Meanwhile, analysts are expecting earnings per share (EPS) of around three to four cents, which would mark an estimated 90% year-over-year decline. That may already be priced in, given the stock’s YTD performance, but a miss could accelerate selling.
The same goes for quarterly revenue, which consensus forecasts put in the range of $616 million to $619 million. Wall Street is already bracing for a “reset quarter” after revenue growth tapered from nearly 111% in Q1 2025 to less than 29% in Q4, so any surprise to the upside could spur another leg to the current rally.
When the SpaceX IPO launches, most retail investors will be locked out. The banks, funds, and insiders get in early – while everyone else waits on the sidelines.
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Analysts Are Taking a Wait-and-See Approach
Despite an average 12-month price target of nearly $32, which implies potential upside of around 24%, Wall Street remains tepid on the stock.
Of the 17 analysts currently covering HIMS, four assign it a Buy rating, 12 assign it a Hold rating, and just one assigns it a Sell rating. Overall, the stock receives a consensus Hold rating.
Institutional ownership of nearly 64% falls within the typical range for mid-cap companies. Outflows of $1.62 billion have nearly caught up to inflows of $1.8 billion over the past 12 months after selling accelerated in Q4 2025. But that trend reversed in Q1, with institutional selling 88% lower than institutional buying.
With a high beta of 2.43, the inherently volatile stock is currently being heavily targeted by bears. Concerningly, more than 35% of the float—or nearly 70 million shares of the almost 228 million shares outstanding—is currently shorted.
Still, strong earnings could shift sentiment and propel the stock closer to the consensus analyst price target. Shareholders and prospective investors should mark their calendars for Monday, May 11, when Hims & Hers Health reports Q1 2026 results.
Folks, Michael Burry just warned of a stock crash reminiscent of 2000 – again…
Burry enjoys making bold claims with vivid imagery. I’ll list three of these quotes below…
Notably, the massive smart-money support is encouraging. An immediate crash for any investment with this much smart money behind it is rare.
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