The stage is set and the lights are bright for the Midsummer Classic. Tune in tonight at 8pm ET on FOX and FOX One to watch the game’s best go head-to-head in a spectacular showdown you won’t want to miss.
Make your voice heard – vote in the MLB All-Star Ted Williams MVP Award! Voting starts at the top of the 6th inning during tonight’s MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard. Learn more >>
Watch the All-Star Red Carpet Show presented by Mastercard at 2pm today! Which All-Star will win best dressed? Who cleans up better, the AL or the NL? Find out when they arrive in Philadelphia. Watch live on MLB Network and MLB.com >>
Bid on game-used bases, baseballs, locker tags and more straight from the field at Citizens Bank Park! This collection includes items from the 2026 All-Star Futures Game, Home Run Derby and the MLB All-Star Game. Bid Now >>
Every ballpark has local flavors, spectacular scenes, and tradition you simply have to witness in person. Discover the best eats in Seattle, the history in Chicago, and the energy in San Diego, and so much more. Your expedition is calling. Plan Your Next Trip >>
Baseball is America’s pastime for a reason, and each pocket of the country has its own unique connection to the sport. To celebrate the 250th anniversary of this nation, we’re taking you on a summer road trip across the U.S. with 50 stories from all 50 states. Learn More >>
America’s birthplace and America’s pastime are about to put on a Semiquincentennial showcase. We’ve got everything you need to know ahead of tonight’s 8 p.m. ET Midsummer Classic on FOX.
After an improbable victory over hometown hero Kyle Schwarber in the Home Run Derby final, the Cardinals’ Jordan Walker received some serious bling from none other than former Phillie Ryan Howard.
As teenagers, CJ Abrams, Corbin Carroll, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Riley Greene and Bobby Witt Jr. helped capture gold at the 2018 COPABE U-18 Pan-American Championship.
White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami discusses his transition to MLB from Japan, his anticipation for the Home Run Derby and more in the Best Interview in Baseball, presented by Corona.
As part of the 2026 All-Star Legacy initiative, Major League Baseball and Phillies Charities, Inc. unveiled a fully accessible mental health and wellness hub at Philadelphia’s Veterans Multi-Service Center.
Watch the All-Star Red Carpet Show presented by Mastercard live from Philadelphia’s Independence Mall on MLB Network at 2 p.m. ET. Hosted by Greg Amsinger and Harold Reynolds, the show is also streaming on MLB.com, MLB.TV, MLB+ and the MLB App.
I think it’s safe to say the new format for the Home Run Derby will be sticking around.
MLB overhauled the Derby this year, ditching the timed format that had been in place for the past decade and replacing it with a swing limit. I’ve complained before about how the frenetic pace of the timed format made it impossible to follow, but I was somewhat concerned that the new rules might lead to a dull, methodical pace. I was wrong.
The event had its issues, to be sure. Netflix is still a lousy sports broadcaster, awkwardly shoehorning cross-promotion opportunities into any event it airs, and I found the announcers lacking energy at times. Most annoyingly, Netflix used some unnecessarily avant-garde camera angles that made my head spin. I walked away from the TV briefly during the first round to do the dishes.
But the event hit its stride when it reached the knockout stages, as the home crowd in Philadelphia put its full energy behind Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber. It was fascinating to hear the usual Derby crowd reactions inverted during Schwarber’s semifinal matchup with Willson Contreras. When Contreras hit one short of the wall, the crowd erupted. When he hit one over the fence, they went silent. In the moments between swings, they booed heartily.
The boos and cheers were even louder when Schwarber advanced to the final against Jordan Walker. Schwarber went first and hit 11 homers on his 15 swings and appeared to be in position to win—until Walker homered on his final six swings to snatch the trophy from Schwarber’s hands.
That was where the new format really shined. A “walk-off” victory in the Derby is nothing new, but replacing the timer with a swing limit created space for the moment to breathe as Walker attempted to eclipse the hometown favorite. You couldn’t have asked for a better finish to the event. The tension of waiting to see if Walker would vanquish the local hero was thrilling, and the chorus of boos added to the drama.
“What they kept telling us is, ‘A boo in Philadelphia is a sign of respect,’” Walker’s father, Derek, said on the broadcast. “They booed very loudly. They respected us very well.”
The WNBA Rookie of the Year race is already over
Jesse Johnson/Imagn Images
If you were watching the Derby, you missed another spectacular performance from Lynx rookie Olivia Miles. She finished with 33 points on 10-for-16 shooting in Minnesota’s 104–100 win over the Mercury.
Miles has totaled 426 points, 126 assists and 104 rebounds in the first 22 games of her career. (That’s 19.4 points, 5.7 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game.) No other player in WNBA history has had at least 400 points, 100 rebounds and 100 assists at this point in their rookie season, and only 19 other players have put up those numbers in the first 22 games of any season. Miles is the only player in the league to reach those benchmarks this season.
The Lynx took Miles with the second pick in the draft after a brilliant five-season college career with Notre Dame and TCU. The pick Minnesota used to select her had originally belonged to the Sky, who traded it away in 2024. I bet they wish they had held onto it.
After a somewhat chaotic start to the knockout stage that saw Germany and Brazil suffer early upsets (and Argentina narrowly escape three upset bids), the bracket has given us a quartet of superpowers in the final four. (Argentina and England will play in the other semifinal tomorrow afternoon.)
Both games should be excellent, but my expectations are higher for today’s game than for tomorrow’s. Spain and France have been the two best teams at this tournament. They haven’t had any scares against inferior opponents like England and Argentina. Spain didn’t allow its first goal of the tournament until late in the first half of the quarterfinal against Belgium. France, meanwhile, has been humming on offense, with a tournament-best 16 goals. It’s strength vs. strength in a meeting of excellent teams from neighboring countries. It doesn’t get much better than that.
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(3) Take heed to yourselves: If thy brother trespass against thee, rebuke him; and if he repent, forgive him. (4) And if he trespass against thee seven times in a day, and seven times in a day turn again to thee, saying, I repent; thou shalt forgive him. (5) And the apostles said unto the Lord, Increase our faith. King James VersionChange email Bible version
In verse 5, notice the apostles’ reaction to Christ’s instruction to forgive: “Increase our faith!” They understood that faith was required for this because forgiving an offense involves letting go of the desire for personal justice and trusting God to work it out. It is a matter of trusting that He is more perfectly aware of what happened than we are and that He has the perfect balance of justice and mercy, as well as the right timing. Forgiving the sins against us demonstrates that we trust that God has the matter in hand and that He will settle it in the best way possible.
Even before His crucifixion, Jesus overlooked the sins committed against Him, but to grasp its significance, remember who He was: The Word became flesh. Our Creator emptied Himself of all power, glory, and authority and stooped so low as to become a human being. After such incredible condescension, the Creator was reviled by His own creation! Yet, rather than reviling in return, He “committed Himself to Him who judges righteously” (I Peter 2:23). Though having every right to demand satisfaction, He instead overlooked the arrogant transgressions of His creations and left it all in the Father’s hands. He trusted that it would all be made right in the end because God is actively involved.
But our carnality really wants satisfaction. Even when merely slighted, all too often, our carnality is ready to launch Armageddon. Even if we do nothing, we may remain in a state of undeclared war for years! Sometimes, this enmity continues even after the offender has died, and our carnality still digs him back up mentally to extract everything we feel he owes us. Our “old man”—the carnal man—wants to see others put in their places. He wants vengeance and the wrongs righted.
The old man, however, is not so keen on justice when he is the one incurring the death penalty. Then, he is intensely keen on mercy and grace! This is why an identifier of carnality in us is keeping a mental tab on others’ debts and a reluctance to let them go. The carnal man would rather dwell on the debts owed to him than the debts he owes. Yet the debt we owe is always bigger than the debts owed to us!
If we are truly concerned about our debts being paid, we will not let someone else’s lack of repentance hinder us from forgiving them. This is not to say that we never do or say anything about another’s sin. Forgiveness does not equate to passivity. In Luke 17:3, Jesus says to rebuke a brother who sins against us. In Matthew 18:15, He is not quite as forceful, instructing us to tell him his fault alone. But whether our brother hears us or not should not determine whether we forgive.
What is more, a Christian who is fully conscious of his own unpayable debt will approach his brother with a meekattitude. Recognizing his spiritual poverty, he will be motivated to have his sins forgiven, which is more important to him than the sins against him. The person who mourns over the violence that he has committed against his relationship with God will count it a small price to forgive the sins of others. And because he is merciful, he will obtain mercy.
For the first time ever, the T-Mobile Home Run Derby is coming to you live on Netflix as the league’s best sluggers take on baseball’s biggest stage. Tune in tonight at 8 PM Eastern to watch a massive show you won’t want to miss!
8 Hitters. 3 Rounds. 1 Champion. Who will take home the title? Submit your picks in the 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby® Pick ‘Em and you could win $100,000! Enter before 8pm ET tonight >>
The excitement continues tomorrow night with the MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard. Watch the game’s ultimate superstars share the field for an unforgettable, winner-take-all battle tomorrow at 8pm ET, live on FOX and FOX One! Learn More >>
Major League Baseball and Traveller Whiskey, the Official Whiskey of MLB, are bringing “The Rally Cap,” the league’s first signature cocktail, to MLB All-Star Week in Philadelphia. Made with a refreshing blend of Traveller Whiskey, lemonade and iced tea and served in a collectible souvenir cup, “The Rally Cap” will be available for fans 21 and older throughout All-Star Week, marking its debut at an MLB jewel event and its first availability in the city of Philadelphia. Learn more >>
NO PURCHASE NECESSARY TO ENTER OR WIN. Starts 8:00 PM ET on 7/10/26 and ends 8:00 PM ET on 7/13/26. Open to legal residents of United States including the District of Columbia and the US commonwealths, territories, and possessions and Canada (excluding Quebec) who are of legal age of majority. TRAVEL NOT INCLUDED. One (1) prize to be awarded. Online entry only. Limit one (1) entry per person. Void where prohibited. Restrictions apply; see Official Rules at mlb.com/pickem. Sponsor: MLB Advanced Media, L.P.
NO PURCHASE NECESSARY TO ENTER OR WIN. Starts 12:00am ET on June 1, 2026 and ends 11:59pm ET on September 7, 2026. Open to legal residents of the United States (including its commonwealths, territories, and possessions) and Canada (excluding Quebec) who are of legal age of majority. Sixty-six (66) prizes to be awarded. Odds of winning depend on the number of eligible entries received. Online entry only. Limit one (1) entry per person. Void where prohibited. Restrictions apply; see Official Rules at www.mlb.com/journeyto30sweeps. Sponsor: MLB Advanced Media, L.P.
For the first time ever, the T-Mobile Home Run Derby is coming to you live on Netflix as the league’s best sluggers take on baseball’s biggest stage. Tune in tonight at 8 PM Eastern to watch a massive show you won’t want to miss!
8 Hitters. 3 Rounds. 1 Champion. Who will take home the title? Submit your picks in the 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby® Pick ‘Em and you could win $100,000! Enter before 8pm ET tonight >>
The excitement continues tomorrow night with the MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard. Watch the game’s ultimate superstars share the field for an unforgettable, winner-take-all battle tomorrow at 8pm ET, live on FOX and FOX One! Learn More >>
Major League Baseball and Traveller Whiskey, the Official Whiskey of MLB, are bringing “The Rally Cap,” the league’s first signature cocktail, to MLB All-Star Week in Philadelphia. Made with a refreshing blend of Traveller Whiskey, lemonade and iced tea and served in a collectible souvenir cup, “The Rally Cap” will be available for fans 21 and older throughout All-Star Week, marking its debut at an MLB jewel event and its first availability in the city of Philadelphia. Learn more >>
NO PURCHASE NECESSARY TO ENTER OR WIN. Starts 8:00 PM ET on 7/10/26 and ends 8:00 PM ET on 7/13/26. Open to legal residents of United States including the District of Columbia and the US commonwealths, territories, and possessions and Canada (excluding Quebec) who are of legal age of majority. TRAVEL NOT INCLUDED. One (1) prize to be awarded. Online entry only. Limit one (1) entry per person. Void where prohibited. Restrictions apply; see Official Rules at mlb.com/pickem. Sponsor: MLB Advanced Media, L.P.
NO PURCHASE NECESSARY TO ENTER OR WIN. Starts 12:00am ET on June 1, 2026 and ends 11:59pm ET on September 7, 2026. Open to legal residents of the United States (including its commonwealths, territories, and possessions) and Canada (excluding Quebec) who are of legal age of majority. Sixty-six (66) prizes to be awarded. Odds of winning depend on the number of eligible entries received. Online entry only. Limit one (1) entry per person. Void where prohibited. Restrictions apply; see Official Rules at www.mlb.com/journeyto30sweeps. Sponsor: MLB Advanced Media, L.P.
Welcome to The Pregame Lineup, a weekday newsletter that gets you up to speed on everything you need to know for today’s games, while catching you up on fun and interesting stories you might have missed. Today we have a special Home Run Derby edition of the newsletter.
We’re just a few hours away from the Home Run Derby. Before the dingers start flying out of Citizens Bank Park, we wanted to give you a little primer on the Derby contestants.
Which one of those eight guys will win it all? Here are the key stats to make the case for each Home Run Derby participant:
Willson Contreras
Contreras has the longest career homer of any hitter in the 2026 Derby field — the 491-footer he smashed high off the Wrigley Field scoreboard in the 2017 playoffs. But even almost a decade later, he can still let it rip. Contreras’ 77 mph average bat speed in 2026 is sixth best among right-handed hitters, and so is his 70.9% fast-swing rate (that’s how often he reaches a 75-plus mph bat speed).
Jordan Walker
Walker’s bat speed is next best in the Majors after Caminero’s, at 79.2 mph, and he turns those fast swings into top-tier exit velocities. Walker’s 94.2 mph average exit velo this season is top-five in MLB, behind only Cruz, James Wood, Yordan Alvarez and Elly De La Cruz.
Schwarber has hit 17 home runs 450 feet or farther since he joined the Phillies in 2022. He’s one of only four hitters with 10 or more 450-footers, along with Shohei Ohtani (19), Aaron Judge (18) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (15). Schwarbs has eight 450-foot homers alone since the start of last season — double any other hitter (Judge, Acuña and Oneil Cruz have four each).
Ben Rice
The way to win a Home Run Derby is to pull the ball in the air — especially for a lefty slugger at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park — and Rice is going to do that. His 19 pulled home runs this season are tied for third most in the Majors, behind only his fellow Derby contestant Schwarber (25) and All-Star Hunter Goodman (20).
Junior Caminero
It should be no surprise that elite bat speed produces electric Home Run Derby displays, and Caminero has the very best bat speed in the Majors. He ranks No. 1 this season with an average swing speed of 79.9 mph. That’s even better than last season, when he finished as the Derby runner-up — Caminero ranked second in 2025 with a 78.5 mph bat speed. Caminero is also tied for the most “no-doubters” this season — home runs that would be gone at all 30 ballparks — with 19.
Munetaka Murakami
Murakami’s elite power has translated seamlessly from Japan to the Major Leagues. He ranks third in the Majors with a 20% barrel rate and second in the Majors with a 59.2% hard-hit rate. Murakami is one of only four hitters averaging at least 100 mph on his fly balls and line drives, along with Wood, Judge and Nick Kurtz. Hitting the ball that hard in the air is a great sign for the Home Run Derby.
Bryce Harper
Harper has been doing this a long time. He has the sixth-most barrels of any hitter since Statcast started tracking in 2015 — those are balls with the ideal exit velocity and launch angle to turn into home runs. Harper’s 546 barrels rank behind only Judge, Freddie Freeman, Manny Machado, Ohtani and Schwarber.
ALL THE KEY INFO FOR THE 2026 DERBY
We put together a handy Home Run Derby FAQwith all the important details for tonight’s contest.
That includes info on when and how to watch, the lineup of players participating this year, details of the 2026 Derby format — which is different from years past — where to track every swing of the Derby, what happens if there’s a tie and a refresher on Home Run Derby history and last year’s results.
If you need to brush up on anything before the Home Run Derby starts, check out that guide.
Willson Contreras: Red Sox interim bench coach José David Flores
Flores and Contreras go back all the way to their years together with the Cubs, starting their relationship in 2013 when Contreras was in the Minors. Contreras said Flores is one of the best BP pitchers “I’ve had in my life.”
Jordan Walker: Cardinals bullpen catcher Kleininger Teran
Teran, the longtime bullpen catcher for the Cardinals, also threw to Albert Pujols in the 2022 Derby, helping guide him to the semifinals.
Jac Caglianone: Dad, Jeff Caglianone
Caglianone’s dad has always been his main BP pitcher during the offseason. And guess who else likes Jeff’s BP? None other than two-time Home Run Derby champion Pete Alonso, who went to the same high school as Jac.
Kyle Schwarber: Phillies assistant hitting coach Rafael Pena
Schwarber has been hitting off Pena in the batting cage for the last two years. That BP has translated into 88 in-game homers over that time.
Ben Rice: Dad, Dan Rice
Rice’s dad, a former pitcher at Brown University, has been throwing batting practice to him his whole life. Even now, Dan still throws to Ben in the offseason. As Ben said: “His lifetime pitch count is through the roof at this point.”
Junior Caminero: Rays Major League field coordinator Tomas Francisco
Francisco was Caminero’s pitcher when he finished as the runner-up to Cal Raleigh in last year’s Home Run Derby, and he was also former Rays slugger Randy Arozarena’s pitcher in his Derby runner-up finish in 2023.
Munetaka Murakami: White Sox Major League coach Luis Sierra
Sierra was on the mound for Luis Robert Jr. in the 2023 Home Run Derby, when the then-White Sox slugger launched 28 home runs in the first round to beat Adley Rutschman.
Bryce Harper: Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel
When Harper won the 2018 Home Run Derby with the Nationals at Nationals Park, it was his dad Ron throwing to him. This time it’s Ebel, who was with Harper at the World Baseball Classic — and helped his teammate Schwarber go 3-for-3 in the tiebreaking Derby-style swing-off at last year’s All-Star Game.
The highly anticipated U.S. trading debut of SK Hynix (NASDAQ: SKHY)delivered on its initial promise by pricing at $158.14 and raising an unprecedented $28.1 billion on July 10. Shares quickly gapped above $170 as early buyers scrambled for exposure to the global leader in high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Gravity quickly took hold. A localized wave of macroeconomic selling across Asian semiconductor assetspulled the newly minted American depositary receipts down by more than 7% intraday, pushing the price below $155 by midday Monday.
Separating Friction From Fundamentals
At first glance, a busted initial public offering (IPO) of this magnitude stings retail buyers who bought the early morning gap.
When an offering creates this much initial friction, it pays to step back and evaluate the broader machinery at play.
The early price action reveals a transient liquidity event rather than a structural deterioration in end-market demand.
Early venture capital holders, retail traders, and cross-border arbitrageurs took liquidity off the table following the opening surge, creating a mechanical drop disconnected from the actual business fundamentals.
Separating Trading Volume From Trend
Underneath the daily volatility of the broader semiconductor index, hyperscalers are quietly absorbing fabrication capacity out through 2027. While retail liquidity exits, institutional block buying volume is actively aggregating near the $150 to $155 support levels for SK Hynix. These institutional buyers recognize a stark discrepancy between the localized sell-off in Asian tech equities and the contracted reality of the artificial intelligence hardware supply chain.
This dynamic creates a rare window. When an asset class dominates the financial narrative, distinguishing between a short-term trading vehicle and a long-term compounder becomes essential. The post-IPO sell-off offers an asymmetric accumulation window for the memory oligopoly, presenting an opportunity for investors willing to look past short-term regional macroeconomic headwinds and focus on the physical constraints of chip manufacturing.
Engineering an Unsolvable Supply Crunch
The primary growth engine for modern memory makers is a multi-year imbalance between supply and demand in HBM manufacturing. Producing these advanced chips is not like churning out standard flash storage. The process mandates intensive capital expenditure, complex packaging dependencies, and significantly lower initial yields.
Integrating these vertical memory stacks directly alongside GPUs requires specialized through-silicon vias and advanced bonding techniques. Every time a new generation of logic chips launches, the memory architecture must also evolve, continuously resetting the manufacturing learning curve and keeping supply artificially tight.
SK Hynix leadership utilized the IPO roadshow to outline a severe, multi-year memory supply crunch expected to persist beyond 2030. The South Korean manufacturer strategically pulled forward the sampling timeline for its advanced HBM4E chips to June 2026.
This accelerated schedule is explicitly designed to qualify for next-generation platforms such as NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) Rubin Ultra, effectively locking out non-incumbent competitors from the supply chain. The fresh capital generated from the U.S. listing provides immediate funding for massive fabrication expansions, such as the transition to 400-layer hybrid bonding, without forcing SK Hynix to rely on expensive debt markets.
Advance Payments and the End of Cyclicality
While SK Hynix executed a near-monopoly over the initial wave of AI hardware buildouts, the landscape is actively recalibrating. The HBM market is maturing into a highly fortified triopoly. Recent qualification and capacity ramps by competitors have compressed SK Hynix’s market share from an estimated 69% in early 2025 to approximately 56%-58% by the second quarter of 2026. This fundamental shift contextualizes the recent SK Hynix price reversion as a transition from monopoly premiums to triopoly realities, with Samsung (OTCMKTS: SSNLF) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU)capturing the remaining market share.
Micron Technology is rapidly advancing its competitive position in this structural deficit. The Idaho-based producer is currently mass-producing 48-gigabyte HBM4 stacks capable of exceptional data transfer speeds.
To support this growth, Micron authorized a 10-year, $250 billion domestic investment outlook to build U.S.-based cleanrooms. Operating with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 21, Micron trades at a relative discount to pure-play logic peers despite structurally expanding margins.
The critical evolution in the memory sector is the shift toward revenue de-risking. Hyperscalers and logic designers are issuing unprecedented advance payments to memory makers to secure fabrication capacity. Both Micron Technology and SK Hynix have fully sold out their high-bandwidth capacity through 2026 and heavily into 2027. This visibility largely decouples near-term EBITDA from traditional boom-and-bust memory cycles. It strips hyperscalers of traditional buyer leverage, transferring structural pricing power directly to the memory suppliers.
The Institutional Accumulation Window
Despite these fortified contractual moats, broader sector weakness has created pockets of extreme sentiment in the derivatives market. Micron presents a highly unusual profile right now. Shares recently traded lower, down by over 5% intraday to drop below the $930 level, largely in a sympathy sell-off following the SK Hynix debut.
With put-to-call open interest ratios recently peaking near 10 ahead of upcoming earnings reports, Micron’s options chain reveals heavy bearish positioning. Such extreme levels of bearishness often serve as a contrarian indicator, creating a compelling setup for a potential short-squeeze against prevailing macroeconomic headwinds.
When combining the retail exodus from SK Hynix post-IPO with the aggressive put accumulation in Micron Technology, a clear institutional accumulation blueprint emerges. The physical bottlenecks limiting supply are real, persistent, and not easily resolved by simply injecting more capital into the system.
Advanced packaging dependencies, such as the chip-on-wafer-on-substrate process utilized by key foundry partners, severely constrain the elasticity of memory supply. These constraints ensure that spot prices for HBM will remain elevated even if broader logic chip demand experiences minor, localized fluctuations.
Investors’ Blueprint for the Memory Oligopoly
The divergence between localized equity sell-offs and the multi-year capacity contracts secured by memory manufacturers creates a distinct valuation mismatch. Rapid generational leaps in memory architecture are effectively creating a closed ecosystem, locking out emerging challengers and solidifying the pricing power of the current triopoly. As long as hyperscaler capital expenditures remain robust, the scarcity premium embedded in these manufacturers appears structurally sound.
A potential risk to this thesis remains an industry-wide slowdown in data center construction or faster-than-expected yield improvements in upcoming fabrication lines. If production yields for advanced hybrid bonding normalize earlier than anticipated, the projected 2027 supply constraints could ease, potentially compressing the premiums currently priced into the sector. Investors may want to monitor institutional accumulation patterns in both SK Hynix and Micron Technology around current support levels to gauge the strength of the structural deficit narrative before taking a position. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
One of the most successful fund managers of the past 50 years put more than $4.5 billion – over half his fund – into a single, little-known company. His firm then bought more shares for 61 straight trading days, and the former CEO of Google soon struck a nine-figure partnership with the same company.
This company controls nearly a million acres of scarce, irreplaceable minerals now protected by a White House executive order signed January 14, 2026. It has already outperformed Apple, Amazon, and the S-P 500 combined – and Whitney Tilson believes the biggest gains are still ahead.WATCH THE FREE PRESENTATION AND GET THE NAME AND TICKER NOW
After being down and out for several months, shares of Magnificent Sevengiant Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) are starting to get their groove back. The stock recently popped 8.8%on reports that Meta will enter the cloud computing business, selling excess capacity to third parties.
Meta shares then saw two large single-day up moves on July 9 and July 10, rising 4.7% and 6%. Part of the stock’s latest gain is due to what is likely Meta’s most significant artificial intelligence (AI) model release: Muse Spark 1.1.
Data indicates that Muse Spark 1.1 is Meta’s most intelligent model yet.
Additionally, the model may mark the beginning of an inflection point in Meta’s ability to generate revenue from AI products.
Muse Spark 1.1: Meta’s AI Model Intelligence Is on the Rise
Artificial Analysis is a helpful source for gauging the relative capabilities of AI models. The company tests models on agentic, coding, general intelligence, and scientific reasoning to give them an “Intelligence Index” score. Currently, Muse Spark 1.1 has a score of 51, which is higher than any model developed by Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL). However, it still ranks below many of Anthropic’s and OpenAI’s latest models, several of which have scores above 55.
Muse Spark 1.1’s score is also significantly higher than that of Meta’s initial Muse Spark model, with a score of 43. Going forward, it will be important to see whether Muse Spark 1.1 maintains this score and its relative standing among other models. Initially, Meta’s first Muse Spark model had a score of 52, but this has since fallen. This is likely because Artificial Analysis updates and reweights its evaluation framework over time.
Still, based on the latest testing, Muse Spark 1.1 represents a significant improvement over the original Muse Spark and ranks highly overall. This lends validation to Meta’s massive AI capital expenditures and its hiring of Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang, who has been critical to Muse Spark’s development. Not only is Meta making better models, but for the first time, it is making a real monetization push.
Meta Steps Into AI Model Monetization
Notably, Muse Spark 1.1 marks the first time Meta will charge for access to its models. Meta will charge users on a per-token basis, or based on the amount of information the model processes and outputs, in a “pay-as-you-go” format. Anthropic and OpenAI allow users to pay for models in this way as well, but also provide access through flat monthly or annual fees.
One of the reasons to think that Muse Spark 1.1 could gain real traction and generate notable revenue for the firm is its pricing. CEO Mark Zuckerberg says Muse Spark 1.1’s per-token pricing is around 25% of what Anthropic and OpenAI charge for similar models. Artificial Analysis adds weight to this. It places Muse Spark 1.1’s “cost per Intelligence Index Task” around three times lower than OpenAI’s GPT-5.4, which also has an Intelligence Index Score of 51.
If Muse Spark 1.1 offers a level of intelligence comparable to another model but at a much lower cost, users have an incentive to adopt it. This gives Meta a realistic opportunity to start generating significant revenue directly through its AI model. This may come through software developers using it for coding tasks, an area where its performance is particularly improved over the original Muse Spark.
Still, it is possible that Meta is highly subsidizing its model cost, with Alexandr Wang calling the pricing “very aggressive and attractive.” The word ‘aggressive’ seems to indicate a degree of deliberate undercutting. In turn, Meta’s pricing may not be high enough to support the model profitably.
Nonetheless, through low pricing, Meta has an opportunity to prove Muse Spark’s capabilities to users, an important first step in generating sales. Over time, Meta can evolve its pricing to increase margins.
Patience Remains Key as Meta Looks to Monetize Muse Spark 1.1
There is real reason for investors to feel excited about the progress Meta has made with Muse Spark 1.1. It has a better model and is now looking to monetize it to boost returns on its AI spending. Still, the true test will be what Meta shows over time in its actual financials.
Investors should monitor the company’s future earnings calls for data on how much revenue Muse Spark is bringing in. It may take time for Meta to provide detailed information on this, and the company’s near-term earnings reports may not give much insight.
Meanwhile, recent gains indicate investor optimism, and sentiment around Meta has not been this high in quite some time. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
The aging of America has made healthcare stocks an evergreen investment theme. It’s also a reason for investors to consider looking at real estate investment trusts (REITs) focused on this area. REITs are commonly seen as vehicles for income-oriented investors.
Welltower Inc. (NYSE: WELL) is a great example. This is the world’s leading residential wellness and healthcare infrastructure company.
The company has a portfolio of over 2,500 senior and wellness housing communities spanning the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada.
As of July 13, Welltower had a market cap of over $165 billion, over $100 billion larger than its closest rival, Ventas Inc. (NYSE: VTR).
Senior Housing Demand Is Creating a Powerful Growth Tailwind
Since being interrupted in 2020 by a global pandemic, demand for senior housing has been surging, making REITs in this sector a solid choice for both growth and income.
WELL is up over 160% in the last five years and has delivered a total return (which includes its dividend) of over 230% in the last three years. There’s likely to be more growth ahead. The percentage of the population aged 80+ is expected to accelerate by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% between 2026 and 2030. That’s up from the 1.8% CAGR between 2010 and 2025.
This is the shift that patient investors have been waiting on for over a decade. However, with the company having shown such strong growth, it’s fair for investors to wonder if this is a time to buy or wait for a better entry point.
Breaking Down the Numbers Behind Welltower Stock
In terms of valuation metrics, REITs have their own language. Two terms matter most for Welltower: net operating income (NOI) and normalized funds from operations (NFFO).
Net Operating Income (NOI) measures how the buildings themselves are performing. Think of it as rent collected minus the cost of running the property (i.e., staff, utilities, maintenance, food service). It excludes corporate overhead, interest payments, and taxes. NOI answers a simple question: Is this real estate portfolio actually making money before any financial engineering happens on top of it?
Welltower’s same-store NOI (a comparison using only properties owned during both periods, so acquisitions don’t distort the picture) grew 16.4% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. The senior housing segment alone grew 22.1%. This marked the 14th straight quarter of 20%-plus growth for that segment.
Normalized funds from operations (NFFO) is the REIT industry’s substitute for “earnings per share.” Regular net income assumes buildings lose value every year through depreciation, the same way a company would write down aging factory equipment.
But real estate often holds or gains value over time. NFFO adds depreciation back into net income, then strips out one-time items like gains from property sales, so investors can get a fair comparison from quarter to quarter.
Welltower reported NFFO of $1.47 per share in the first quarter, up 23% year-over-year. That’s the growth rate management uses to justify the stock’s premium. Full-year guidance was also raised, with the midpoint moving to $6.28 per share from $6.17.
REIT investors price the stock against NFFO instead. On that basis, Welltower trades closer to 30-40 times forward earnings, depending on where the stock sits. That’s still a premium to healthcare REIT peers in the mid-teens to low-20s. Which means that investors have to be counting on enough growth to justify that premium.
How Housing Trends Could Affect Welltower Stock
Welltower’s bet is that the 80-plus population boom starting later this decade will fill its buildings faster than new supply can be built. But that story assumes seniors will actually move into senior housing when the time comes. Research on aging in America suggests that’s a more complicated transition than the demographic charts imply.
A Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies analysis found that most seniors want to age in place, and that the U.S. faces an acute shortage of housing options that let them do it, whether that means staying in an existing home or moving to something smaller within their own community.
That distinction matters. “Aging in place” doesn’t automatically mean senior housing—often it means retrofitting a current home or downsizing nearby, not relocating into a managed community.
AARP’s 2024 national survey backs this up with numbers: 75% of adults 50 and older want to stay in their current homes as they age, and 73% want to stay in their communities specifically. Cost is the biggest obstacle. Nearly half of respondents expect to move eventually for financial reasons, driven primarily by rising mortgage or rent payments, maintenance costs, and property taxes.
Higher Mortgage Rates Are Slowing Senior Housing Moves
Millions of older homeowners are sitting on mortgage rates locked in below 4% from the pandemic-era low-rate window. Selling that home to finance a move into senior housing means giving up a historically cheap mortgage payment for market-rate financing on whatever comes next. Even if the new living arrangement itself doesn’t require a mortgage, the psychological and financial “sunk cost” of an ultra-cheap rate makes staying put feel safer.
Roughly half of homeowners with mortgages are sitting on rates far enough below current market levels that moving has become financially irrational. That dynamic has kept existing home sales running near 1990s-era volumes despite full employment and rising household income. It’s a market where staying put pays.
However, there are early signs that this is loosening. Real estate agents surveyed in Spring 2026 reported that mortgage rate lock-in is becoming less of a factor in sellers’ decisions, with sellers increasingly listing due to life circumstances rather than timing the market. But even an aggressive round of Fed rate cuts would likely leave the rate gap for the median locked-in borrower wider than 200 basis points.
Why Both Bulls and Bears Have a Case on Welltower
For Welltower, this cuts two ways. The bear case: if seniors and their families delay a move because selling the family home feels like giving up cheap financing, occupancy gains could arrive more slowly than the demographic math implies.
The bull case: once a move becomes unavoidable (e.g., health decline, widowhood, a fall), the lack of affordable, accessible alternative housing pushes more of that unavoidable demand toward professionally operated senior housing rather than a DIY solution like an in-law suite or home retrofit, because those alternatives are themselves scarce and expensive to build. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
The Night Owl is a financial newsletter that provides in-depth market analysis on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early Bird Publishing, The Night Owl is delivered around 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday through Thursday. If you give a hoot about the market, The Night Owl is the newsletter for you.
If you have questions or concerns about your subscription, please don’t hesitate to contact our South Dakota based support team at contact@marketbeat.com.
It’s not hard to see why investing in rare-earth metals is a long-term investment theme. Rare-earth metals are 17 metallic elements with unusual magnetic, optical, and conductive properties that make them indispensable to modern technology, including:
Defense and national security
Artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and data centers
Electrification and clean energy
The rare-earth story is frequently positioned as one of scarcity, but that isn’t the case. Many countries have abundant rare-earth deposits, including the United States, Australia, Canada, Brazil, and India.
China’s dominance in rare-earths stems from decades of developing its midstream processing industry, rather than just controlling the largest deposits. Beginning in the 1980s, China invested heavily in refining, separation technology, chemical engineering capacity, and magnet manufacturing—areas that other countries avoided because of cost, environmental complexity, and long development timelines.
Rare-earth refining is chemically intensive and produces radioactive byproducts, and China’s willingness to subsidize the industry and manage the environmental burden allowed it to scale rapidly while competitors fell behind. This is where today’s investment opportunities exist.
Why Rare-Earth Refining Is the Real Investment Opportunity
The bottleneck in rare-earth is in the refining process. This was a conscious choice that was made by China (to invest in refining) and many other countries, including the United States, which chose not to invest in refining.
The Trump administration is accelerating domestic rare‑earth development through targeted industrial policy, including federal funding, strategic partnerships, and streamlined permitting for critical‑mineral projects. Rather than broad deregulation, the focus has been on removing specific bottlenecks that historically made U.S. refining uneconomic—such as long environmental review timelines and limited federal support for midstream processing.
These policy shifts are designed to help companies begin refining rare-earth elements inside the United States for the first time in decades. As a result, several U.S. companies are now receiving federal support to build refining, separation, and magnet‑manufacturing capacity—marking the first major rebuild of the domestic rare‑earth supply chain in more than 30 years.
MP Materials (NYSE: MP): The Pentagon became the company’s largest shareholder after buying $400 million in preferred stock in July 2025. The investment supports the company’s expansion of rare-earth processing and the construction of a second magnet manufacturing plant.
USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR): The Trump administration announced a partnership in early 2026 that gives the company access to $1.6 billion in funding. The deal also issued 16.1 million shares to the Department of War, which could increase the government’s stake to between 12% and 25%, depending on warrant exercise.
Vulcan Elements & ReElement Technologies: The Department of War issued these rare-earth startups a $620 million loan and $50 million in federal incentives. The investment is to help the companies scale their magnet and ore processing capacity.
This is where some investors may believe the opportunity carries too much risk. After all, there are no guarantees in this sector, and the real payoff is likely years away. However, for patient investors with a long-term outlook, that’s an ideal argument for investing in an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that includes dozens of holdings in the sector. This provides exposure to the entire supply chain without overreliance on one or two companies.
The fund is an ideal option for investors looking for a direct proxy for the current export-control backdrop,
REMX is a weighted average market cap fund with 38 holdings. Albemarle (NYSE: ALB) holds the most weight in the fund at around 7.2%. The fund has $2.4 billion of assets under management (AUM) with a net expense ratio of 0.58%.
REMX is up over 91% in the last 12 months. But a sharp sell-off that started in May has pushed the stock price into the middle of its 52-week range, which may create a solid entry point for investors.
EART ETF Targets the Companies Powering Future Technologies
The fund targets companies that produce rare-earth components and other raw or composite materials that are essential to expanding the development of critical technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage, robotics, and radar systems.
The fund has over 50 holdings that are weighted according to their Free Float Market Capitalization. The fund currently has around $40 million of AUM with a net expense ratio of 0.59%.
EART is up over 60% in the last 12 months. Like the REMX, the fund has been in a downtrend since mid-May, giving investors a similar opportunistic setup.
In contrast to the EART, which takes a narrower focus on the rare-earth sector, the Sprott Critical Materials ETF (NASDAQ: SETM) takes a broader view and includes a focus on several critical metals that are essential to the modern industrial economy.
For example, in percentage terms, uranium companies have the most exposure in the fund.
With its focus on a wider range of metals, the fund has at any given time between 125 and 170 holdings, which provides significant diversification. The fund has close to $560 million of AUM and a net expense ratio of 0.65%.
SETM is up 74% in the last 12 months. But like the broader sector, the fund is down over 14% in the last three months. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
Project Janus is a little-known initiative with ties to the White House, U.S. Army, and Department of Energy – and it targets the entire $3.7 trillion global energy sector.
Chief Investment Strategist Adam O’Dell believes its new fuel source, set to go online before December 18, 2026, could eliminate AI power bottlenecks and grid failures. He’s releasing the name and ticker of his top stock pick at no charge.GET THE FULL STORY AND CLAIM ADAM O’DELL’S TOP STOCK PICK FREE
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) has taken steps to lessen its reliance on frontier AI models, though it’s not an outright declaration of protest. In June, the tech giant launched its own proprietary AI models (Microsoft AI or MAI) across select applications in its Office suite.
What this means for the user experience is an open question, but this is a clear margin play for Microsoft. The company competes in multiple areas of the AI infrastructure buildout. In a way that makes this move about controlling the controllables.
Instead of experiencing death by a thousand cuts from OpenAI and Anthropic (i.e., the frontier models), Microsoft is trying to widen its existing moat and deliver strong returns on investment (ROI) from its AI spend. But will this be sufficient to alter the sentiment towards MSFT, which has declined approximately 20% year-to-date?
Microsoft Expands MAI to Reduce Reliance on OpenAI
Here’s the news behind the news. Bloomberg reported that Microsoft is quietly routing some Excel and Outlook prompts to MAI, its in-house model family, rather than to OpenAI or Anthropic. Tens of thousands of prompts a week are already running on Microsoft’s own tech.
That’s still a small slice of total Copilot traffic. OpenAI and Anthropic handle most of it today. But the direction of that travel matters more than the current split, and Microsoft has made its intentions clear.
At Build 2026 in June, Microsoft unveiled seven MAI models, including its first reasoning model, MAI-Thinking-1. The company says it matches Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 on coding tasks. AI chief Mustafa Suleyman put it bluntly: “We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately eliminate that cost.”
How Microsoft’s In-House AI Could Boost Profit Margins
For investors, an easy way to think about this is as follows. Copilot is a $30-per-seat subscription that, prior to the MAI launch, was running on top of someone else’s expensive AI model by default. Every prompt costs Microsoft money to process, and multiplied across hundreds of millions of Office users, that bill adds up fast.
Owning the model instead of renting it changes the equation entirely. Microsoft doesn’t need MAI to win over every customer. It just needs MAI to be good enough for everyday spreadsheet formulas and email drafts, at a fraction of the cost.
That’s the ROI story. Microsoft won’t win an AI arms race on raw intelligence. But it can compete more efficiently by converting a rented cost center into owned infrastructure.
Microsoft Uses MAI to Strengthen Its AI Competitive Moat
Microsoft chief executive officer (CEO) Satya Nadella has reportedly said he feared Microsoft becoming “the next IBM.” By that, he meant a company that let someone else own the most important layer of technology. MAI is Microsoft’s answer to that fear.
Instead of a single point of AI dependency, Microsoft now runs a three-way hedge. It holds a stake in OpenAI, embeds Anthropic’s Claude in Copilot, and increasingly leans on its own models where the economics make sense. That flexibility is arguably a bigger moat than any one model’s benchmark score.
It also insulates Microsoft from a ticking clock. Microsoft’s current discounted OpenAI pricing won’t last forever, and that deal isn’t set to expire until 2032. Building a credible in-house alternative now gives Microsoft leverage in any future renegotiation, rather than leaving it stuck paying whatever OpenAI or Anthropic decides to charge.
The Bear Case: Risks to Microsoft’s AI Strategy
Before getting too bullish, a few caveats are worth weighing. This shift is still incremental, and Microsoft hasn’t published any timeline for expanding it further. Most Copilot workloads still run on outside models today.
There’s also a quality question. Microsoft’s own materials frame MAI as matching prior-generation Anthropic models, not necessarily the current large language models (LLMs). If MAI-powered features feel noticeably worse, customer goodwill could take a hit that outweighs the cost savings.
What It Means for OpenAI and Anthropic
This is a warning shot worth watching. Anthropic filed confidentially for an IPO in June, and OpenAI is reportedly preparing a similar filing. Their biggest enterprise distribution partner is now also a competitor, building cheaper in-house alternatives.
That doesn’t mean OpenAI or Anthropic are in immediate trouble. Both still handle the bulk of Copilot’s AI traffic, and Microsoft has made it clear that it isn’t ending either partnership. But the “picks and shovels” trade just got a little more complicated for anyone betting purely on third-party AI labs staying indispensable.
Microsoft Stock Rebounds After Hitting a 52-Week Low
Microsoft hit a 52-week low in late June. The 10% bounce off that level isn’t a sign that everything is perfect, but it does suggest that investors are leaning into the stock’s value proposition.
At around 22x forward earnings, Microsoft is trading at a discount to the S&P 500 and to its own history. An argument could be made that MSFT wasn’t overvalued when the sell-off began in November, and there’s ample reason to believe it’s undervalued now. The relative strength indicator reached oversold territory when MSFT bottomed in June.
But a larger story comes from analysts and institutions. The MSFT consensus price target of $559.84 is approximately 45% below its recent trading range. Plus, out of 48 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, 41 give MSFT a Buy rating, and seven rate it as a Hold. Analysts notoriously don’t like to be wrong, which may explain why some analysts have trimmed their price targets, but the overall sentiment remains bullish.
The same cautious optimism can be found in its institutional ownership. There’s no question that buying has slowed in the first two quarters of the year. But buying still outpaces selling, and with MSFT at 22x earnings, this could be an attractive target for money that hasn’t left the market and is looking for growth in the second half. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
The U.S. Army and Department of Energy are launching Project Janus – a high-priority initiative ordered by President Trump to deploy a revolutionary new fuel. The first powerplant running this fuel is expected to go live before December 18, 2026.
Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) lived up to its motto, with the Q2 2026 earnings results showing strength, suggesting its shares can Keep Climbing. Drivers include outperformance driven by international demand, overall demand, premiumization, and structural cost advantages, which together provide ample cash flow.
The critical detail in the release was the guidance, which forecasts that these trends will continue. More importantly, guidance was raised, prompting a robust response from analysts.
While no upgrades or price target revisions were tracked within the first hours of the release, several commentaries hit the wires. Analyst commentary reaffirms the robust trends, including numerous initiations, upgrades, and price target increases ahead of the earnings release on July 10.
As it stands, MarketBeat tracks 27 analysts rating DAL as a consensus Moderate Buy; coverage is up versus the prior month, quarter, and year, with sentiment firming and an 89% Buy-side bias in the data. The consensus price target assumes fair value near the early-July highs, but the trend matters. Recent revisions place this market in the high-end range, between $100 and $116, which would be a fresh all-time high when reached.
Delta’s July Pullback: A Touch-and-Go Event, Buy the Dip
Delta’s price pullback reflects a market expecting strength, as the Q2 results and guidance revealed nothing but that. Revenue growth accelerated sequentially and year over year with a robust 18.7% advance, ahead of expectations.
Delta’s strength was seen across metrics, underpinned by a mere 1% increase in capacity. Total revenue per average seat mile (TRASM) grew by 12.4%, with strength in the main cabin and premium, which grew by 17%. Domestic revenue grew by 12% and international revenue by 8%, with cargo up by 39% and maintenance services by 32%. Loyalty, a forward-looking indicator, grew by 19%, and corporate traffic grew by double digits.
While margin contracted in the quarter, and slightly more than expected, the contraction was minimal. More importantly, top-line strength carried through to the bottom line, leaving the adjusted earnings per share of $1.56 above forecasts by 400 bps. Looking ahead, the company expects strength to continue and reaffirmed its guidance. The critical details are that free cash flow and capital returns will continue, and that the guidance may be cautious. Travel trends remain robust across leisure and business segments, potentially accelerated by falling energy prices.
Delta’s Cash Flow Recovery Story Takes Flight
Delta’s stock price recovery is underpinned by growth but, more importantly, the cash flow it produces. Drivers of the share price include persistent debt reduction, improving investment-grade balance-sheet quality, and the return of capital to shareholders.
Q3 capital returns included dividendsbut no share buybacks, with the dividend annualizing to about 1%. The payout ratios reveal no red flags for investors, as the company is in a position to continue executing its strategy while increasing its dividend annually. Balance sheet highlights include increased cash, reduced debt, and improving equity, with equity up 4.6% year to date.
Institutional activity reflects the potential in a DAL investment. The group owns a substantial 70% of the stock and has been accumulating at a nearly $2-to-$1 pace over the trailing 12 months. They provide a solid support base and market tailwind that will likely remain in place, given the guidance. In this scenario, DAL’s share price might continue pulling back in Q3, but the downside is limited, and higher share prices are likely by year’s end. Critical support targets are near $85 and $80; lower lows are unexpected.
Delta’s risks center on cost controls and execution. Costs, including labor, continue to rise while a major C-suite transition is underway. Two retirements and one exec’s departure for new opportunities resulted in several promotions and consolidated roles. The risk lies in disruptive hiccups tied to the role changes, specifically during the upcoming seasonal shift. If Delta fails to match capacity to demand, it risks losing pricing power, which would be detrimental to both top- and bottom-line results. In the longer term, Delta is expected to sustain modest growth over the next five years.
The stock price action is favorable, despite the early Q3 price pullback. Delta is rising on a wave of strength, cash flow, and dividends that has yet to play out, leaving the underlying uptrend intact. The likely outcome is that support kicks in at or near the early July lows, leading to a trend-following signal and price rebound later this year. Signals of strength include MACD convergence on the weekly chart, suggesting the latest highs will at least be retested, and support at the 30-day exponential moving average. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
Under Executive Order 14299, President Trump has ordered the U.S. Army and Department of Energy to launch a bold new joint project on American soil.
Most people won’t know this operation is underway – but its outcome could be pivotal to America’s future. Chief Investment Strategist Adam O’Dell of Money and Markets has the full story.CLICK HERE NOW TO SEE WHAT THE ARMY AND DOE ARE PREPARING
The Night Owl is a financial newsletter that provides in-depth market analysis on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early Bird Publishing, The Night Owl is delivered around 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday through Thursday. If you give a hoot about the market, The Night Owl is the newsletter for you.
If you need assistance with your subscription, please don’t hesitate to contact MarketBeat’s South Dakota based support team at contact@marketbeat.com.
RJ Hamster 