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AAOI Is Guiding to $1.1B. The Real Story Is What’s Being Built in Texas.

Published: May 11th, 2026 | $AAOI ( ▲ 24.14% )

Most people still haven’t heard of Applied Optoelectronics. That’s actually part of what makes it interesting right now.

The company — ticker AAOI, headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas — makes the fiber-optic components that physically move data inside AI data centers. Not software. Not chips. Actual hardware: high-speed optical transceivers and semiconductor lasers that connect GPU clusters to switching fabric at speeds the rest of the market is still scrambling to keep up with. Founded in 1997 by Dr. Thompson Lin, AOI spent most of its early years selling into the cable television market. That was the bread and butter. What’s changed is where the growth is coming from — and the scale of it is hard to overstate.

The data center segment has taken over.

On May 7, 2026, AOI reported Q1 results — its fourth consecutive quarter of record revenue. Total revenue came in at $151.1 million, up 51% year-over-year and 13% sequentially. Data center revenue specifically hit $81.4 million, a 154% increase from the same quarter a year ago. CATV, the legacy business, added $66.8 million — up 4% year-over-year and 24% sequentially, which is actually better than it sounds for a mature segment. Non-GAAP gross margin was 29.2%. Adjusted EBITDA was just barely positive at $0.97 million. Cash on the balance sheet: $449.4 million at quarter-end, up from $216 million in Q4 2025, partly reflecting capital raises to fund the expansion.

Revenue missed the Street consensus of roughly $154.8 million by a few million, and EPS came in a penny light. Management called it in-line with internal targets. That framing matters — a miss that doesn’t rattle guidance is a different kind of miss. Q2 guidance was set at $180 million to $198 million. Full-year 2026 guidance is now above $1.1 billion with non-GAAP operating income projected to exceed $140 million.

To put that in context: AOI did $456 million in total revenue in 2025. That was itself an 83% increase over 2024. They are now guiding to more than double 2025 in a single year.

Here’s where it gets interesting. The 800G transceiver market is supply-constrained right now — not demand-constrained. AOI exited Q1 with roughly 100,000 units per month of combined 800G and 1.6T capacity. The target is over 650,000 units per month by end of 2026, with more than 930,000 by end of 2027. That is a roughly 9x production increase in under two years. Most of it is being built out of Texas.

The order flow has been moving fast. In March 2026, AOI received its first volume 1.6T order from a long-term major hyperscale customer. A $71 million upsized 800G order followed in April, bringing that single customer’s total orders to $124 million since mid-March. 800G revenue in Q1 was only $4.6 million — but management expects 800G to become the largest data center revenue line starting in Q2 2026. 1.6T shipments are expected to begin in Q3 2026 and complete by Q4.

Slight tangent, but it matters: one thing AOI has that most peers don’t is vertical integration on lasers. The company makes its own semiconductor lasers using molecular beam epitaxy — an extremely precise fabrication method — rather than sourcing them externally. In a market where supply is already tight and lead times are extending, that in-house capability is functioning as a real competitive advantage, not just a talking point in investor presentations.

The Texas buildout is being taken seriously at the state level too. In April 2026, AOI was awarded a $20.9 million Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund grant. The company is expanding its Houston-area footprint to approximately 900,000 square feet across facilities in Pearland and Sugar Land. By 2027, more than half of all production is expected to come from domestic facilities — a shift that also provides some insulation from the ongoing trade policy uncertainty that hit AOI with $1.4 million in direct tariff costs in Q1. Following the IEEPA tariff rollback, they submitted documentation for a refund expected to exceed $5.7 million.

On the product side, AOI showed up to OFC 2026 in Los Angeles in March with its 25dBm Ultra-High Power ELSFP — an external light source module aimed at co-packaged optics and next-generation AI switching infrastructure. The company is also pushing Linear Pluggable Optics, a design that removes the power-hungry DSP from the transceiver module and cuts energy consumption by roughly 50%. That’s not a minor spec improvement. Data centers running AI workloads are under serious power budget pressure, and LPO directly addresses that. AOI also has 3.2T development on its 2027 roadmap, alongside plans to increase laser fabrication capacity by approximately 350% — most of it in-house.

Now the uncomfortable part.

AOI is still GAAP loss-making. The heavy capex tied to the Texas expansion is compressing near-term margins, and the path to the company’s own gross margin targets — 35% to 38% by Q2 2027, 40% by Q3 or Q4 2027 — requires a production ramp that has already slipped once. Earlier 800G shipments were delayed due to firmware interoperability issues with a major hyperscale customer. That kind of delay is recoverable. A second one, at this scale of guidance, is a different conversation.

Customer concentration is real. One hyperscale customer accounted for nearly 29% of total revenue in 2025. AOI also competes against Coherent Corp. and Lumentum Holdings — both significantly larger, both better capitalized, both with broader product portfolios. If 800G pricing compresses faster than management is modeling, or if a competitor wins a key qualification round, the top-line trajectory doesn’t hold.

The 52-week range — $15.06 on the low end, nearly $191.87 on the high — says everything about the sentiment swings this stock is capable of. It moves on order announcements, guidance revisions, and any macro signal touching AI infrastructure spending. That volatility cuts both ways.

What’s interesting is that the bull case here isn’t really about market share or competitive moats in the traditional sense. It’s simpler than that: demand is already there, contracts are already signed, and the only real question is whether AOI can physically build fast enough to fulfill them. That’s a manufacturing execution story. And heading into Q3, the Texas buildout timeline is the variable that matters most — more than any earnings beat or miss, more than the macro, more than anything else on the calendar.

Worth keeping on the radar.

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The Car Crash That Changed Everything

editor-image The Car On The Right Didn’t BendClick Here divider It was supposed to be an ordinary test drive. Until a semi barreled through the intersection at 65 mph.

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But this video could be pulled at any time.

Watch it nοw before Big Auto buries it.

Stay sharp,
— The Gilder’s Technology Report Team

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divider Weekly Finance Habits: More People Are Focusing on Small Adjustments

Many households are paying closer attention to small financial habits that can be reviewed and adjusted over time. Rather than making major changes, people are increasingly focusing on consistency and routine awareness.

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Educational resources continue to highlight the importance of awareness, consistency, and regular check-ins when managing everyday finances.

Learn more

This content is shared for general informational purposes related to personal financial routines.

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Tech Insiders Cash Out While Analysts Stay Bullish

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The #1 Stock to Buy Before Elon Takes Over AI Industry? (From InvestorPlace)

Leading Insider Sales: April Activity Ramps in These Stocks

Written by Thomas Hughes on May 5, 2026

Key Points

Insiders are unloading tech stocks in 2026.
Analysts and institutions underpin stock price action for several tech names, providing support and lift.
AI is a unifying factor, and the ability to generate revenue and cash flow.
Special Report: Meta, Google, Qualcomm, and Samsung all use this at work. (From Immersed)

Insider selling ramped up in early 2026, with tech stocks topping the list. Tech stocks, meanwhile, are rallying higher on results, outlook, and sell-side interest, including analysts and institutions, leaving the signals mixed. The question for investors is which group to follow: the early insiders taking profits or the long-term-oriented buy-and-hold institutions that have been accumulating shares.

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CoreWeave Insider Liquidates Position

CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) is the top stock insiders sold in April, with sales topping $1 billion for the period. While sales were logged among a diverse group, the bulk were made by Magnetar Capital. Magnetar Capital is an early investor that has taken profits, turning an investment worth tens of millions into one worth approximately $1 billion. The good news is that its stake has dwindled to nearly zero, sufficient to remove the overhang and allow the market to advance freely. Executive insiders are also selling after the stock’s triple-digit increase, but they pose far less of a headwind.

Analysts’ trends point to accumulation, offsetting the impact of insider profit-taking. They rate the stock a Moderate Buy, with trends showing increasing coverage, firming sentiment, and an uptick in the price target. Consensus assumes the stock is fairly valued as of early May, but revision trends point to the $150 range and may strengthen in upcoming quarters. Institutions are also accumulating, and aggressively, with early 2026 activity ramping to record levels.

NuScale Insiders Sell at Record Pace

NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) is the stock insiders sold second-strongest in April, with their activity pushing the early Q2 total to record levels. Insiders sold nearly half a billion in shares, but this was not an unexpected event. The seller was Fluor Corporation, which held a significant stake and was expected to liquidate. Now, with Fluor out of the picture, this market is free to advance without the overhang. However, advancement may come in fits and starts, depending on the news cycle, as NuScale is still an early-stage company without revenue or profits.

Analysts remain optimistic about SMR stock, rating it a Hold with a 35% Buy-side bias among 18 analysts. The price targets have moderated, but most revisions suggest upside is possible, and consensus forecasts about 60%. Institutions are limiting downside in Q2, with their buying activity ramping to record levels in Q1, and sellers virtually absent.

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AST Space Mobile Insider Trims Stake

AST Space Mobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) insider Hiroshi Mikitani, representative of Rakuten and board member, retired and trimmed his position. The sales resulted in elevated monthly and quarterly activity, but do not raise any red flags. Insiders continue to control more than 30% of the stock, and the institutions are accumulating. They collectively own 60%, providing a solid support base, as they have been accumulating shares. Their activity ramped sequentially into Q1 2026 and remains bullish in early Q2 despite its recent setback.

A failed launch attempt resulted in the loss of hardware. The loss of the BlueBird satellite has delayed service coverage, contracts, and revenue, and has been reflected in the stock price. Analyst sentiment is also souring, with the once Buy rating now a consensus Reduce and price targets falling.

Arista Networks Execs Sell Into Rally

Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET) execs, including the CEO and other critical insiders, sold shares in April. Their activity is significant, if diminished from earlier quarters, but raises no red flags. Insider selling was primarily done by prearranged trading plans linked to share-based compensation and portfolio needs.

Insiders still own more than 3% of the shares and indicate confidence in the outlook via official releases, including quarterly results. Analysts and institutions support the ANET uptrend. It is driven by results and AI demand, with analysts rating it as a high-conviction Buy and institutions accumulating shares at a steady pace.

Dell Insider Selling Dwindles as Time Goes By

Insider selling at Dell (NYSE: DELL) is nothing new; they tend to do it quarterly. However, the pace of selling is dwindling sequentially and tracking for new lows in Q2 2026. As it stands, insiders who sold in April include the CFO and COO, but the bulk of transactions were by a major institutional shareholder.

That said, insiders still control more than 40% of the company, led by founder Michael Dell. Institutions, other than Silver Lake Partners, and analysts, however, are buying shares. The institutions are accumulating at a brisk pace, with price action led by the analysts. Recent revisions point to the $246 region, which represents healthy upside from recent trading levels.

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Get Top Stocks NowBy clicking the link above you will automatically opt-in to receive emails from SmartMoneyTrading and agree to Privacy Policy Cathie Wood Bets On Amazon As $100 Billion Anthropic Deal Reshapes AI Race, Here’s What Else Ark Traded

Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest snapped up Amazon and DoorDash stock on Monday. April 20, 2026. Continue Reading ➔Trump Just Named His Secret AI Project. It’s Called “Golden Dawn.” – Ad

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Wall Street analysts changed outlook on top names, downgraded Amplitude Inc, Accuray Inc, Angi Inc, PayPal Holdings, and Criteo S.A. See analyst ratings. Continue Reading ➔Trump administration to pay 2 more companies to walk away from US offshore wind leases

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration announced two more payouts Monday for energy companies to walk away from U.S. offshore wind projects under development. Continue Reading ➔You Missed Out on Nvidia’s 700% Bull Run. Don’t Miss Out on This One. – Ad

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A report says Jeff Bezos is selling his $500 million superyacht. Could the sale have a sports related significance? Continue Reading ➔Elon Musk Calls Nvidia GB300 ‘The Best AI Computer’ As SpaceX And Anthropic Strike Deal

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The Iran War could reshape your retirement portfolio. Markets are already reacting as U.S. oil exports surge and energy stocks soar. On May 15, Trump is expected to invoke a little-known law that could ignite a massive boom in oil, gold, silver, and critical metals. See why some believe it could unlock $100T in new wealth.Why gasoline costs 52% more in the US than it did before the Iran war

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Opportunity to buy into undervalued oversold stocks in the industrials sector. RSI compares stock strength on up/down days & helps predict short term performance. List of oversold players. Continue Reading ➔Weekend Round-Up: Apple’s Record Quarter, Meta’s Q1 Beat, Microsoft’s AI Revenue Surge, Alphabet’s Earnings Triumph And Spotify’s Selloff

Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet beat earnings expectations, while Spotify fell after missing revenue estimates. Continue Reading ➔A solar-powered charging station in central Cuba brings life to a darkened island

SANTA CLARA, Cuba (AP) — Yudelaimys Barrero Muñoz used to spend up to three hours on the side of a highway under the blazing sun waving money at drivers as she attempted to hitch a ride from Cienfuegos, to Santa Clara, where she buys supplies to resell and support her husband and two children. Continue Reading ➔Cathie Wood Dumps Another $3 Million In AMD Stock As Ark Invest Trims For Third Day Running, This Is the AI Stock She Is Buying Instead

Cathie Wood continued trimming AMD holdings this week, redirecting capital toward Tempus AI amid shifting market strategy. Continue Reading ➔Eric Trump ‘Extremely Proud’ As He Shares Official Logo For Donald J. Trump International Airport, Says No Person ‘More Deserving’ Than Dad

Eric Trump revealed a new logo for Palm Beach International Airport, soon to be renamed President Donald J. Trump International Airport. Continue Reading ➔Pete Hegseth Tightens Pentagon Grip As Political Appointees Take Control: Report

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth removed Navy Secretary John Phelan after allegations of a “land grab” over military procurement decisions. Continue Reading ➔

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Did You Make a Mistake?

Alexander Green

Alexander Green
Chief Investment Strategist

Alexander Green here.

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Anthropic or Misanthropic

Anthropic or Misanthropic

Jeff Brown

Founder and CEO

Last week, a highly unexpected deal in artificial intelligence was announced…

Some might say it was the kind of deal that would only happen when hell freezes over.

It was a deal for AI computational resources – signed by SpaceXAI (the new name for SpaceX) and Anthropic, one of the leading frontier AI model companies.

And it was a big one.

SpaceXAI agreed to lease the resources of its Colossus 1 AI data center in South Memphis, Tennessee, to Anthropic.

Colossus 1, a site that I’ve visited, shattered all records for what was possible in architecting, constructing, and commissioning what became the world’s largest homogenous cluster of GPUs at the time.

xAI managed to string together 220,000-230,000 GPUs in a record 122 days – a jaw-dropping feat that had the rest of the industry shaking their heads and asking, “How is that possible?”

And Anthropic wanted access to this engineering marvel. Its interest in doing business with SpaceXAI is simple to understand… pure necessity.

Compute Can’t Keep Up with Demand

Anthropic’s biggest shortcoming as a company is that it lacked the computational resources to support the demand to access its frontier AI models.

Unlike OpenAI, Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), or Amazon (AMZN), Anthropic’s business strategy has been to lease computational resources, rather than build out its own AI data centers to support its frontier AI models.

Google and Amazon have been Anthropic’s largest compute partners to date…

Just last month, Anthropic signed a deal to spend more than $100 billion with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to gain access to 5 gigawatts of compute to train and run Anthropic’s AI Claude.
Part of the Anthropic/Amazon deal also included a $5 billion investment into Anthropic made by Amazon, “with up to an additional $20 billion in the future.” This is above the $8 billion Amazon had already invested in Anthropic.
Days ago, Anthropic announced that it commits to spending $200 billion with Google Cloud over the next five years.
Part of that deal is for Google to invest up to $40 billion in Anthropic. $10 billion will be invested now with the additional $30 billion to be invested upon Anthropic meeting agreed-upon milestones.
And while small in comparison, last week Anthropic committed $1.8 billion to gain additional compute resources from content delivery network (CDN) giant Akamai (AKAM).
Last November, Anthropic committed to spending $30 billion for compute from Microsoft’s Azure cloud services division and to contract additional compute capacity up to 1 gigawatt.
Part of the Microsoft deal is for Microsoft to invest $10 billion into Anthropic, and NVIDIA to invest $5 billion in Anthropic.

The numbers are mind-boggling, and yet they still make sense if we understand the demand for using Claude, the computational needs for AGI, and ultimately artificial superintelligence (ASI).

The only divergence from Anthropic’s strategy for leasing computational resources was an announcement made last November.

Anthropic’s Infrastructure Bind

Shown below, Anthropic agreed to invest $50 billion in “American computing infrastructure,” choosing to partner with Fluidstack to build data centers in Texas and New York.

Source: Anthropic

The announcement was structured in such a way to highlight that it would be creating 2,400 construction jobs and 800 permanent jobs in the U.S.

The announcement even went so far as to state this…

[The project] will help advance the goals in the Trump administration’s AI Action Plan to maintain American AI leadership and strengthen domestic technology infrastructure.

From my analysis, it’s obvious that this deal was designed to buy goodwill from the U.S. government.

Anthropic has long been known for having developed the most biased AI designed to push political narratives. It has also tried to restrict the U.S. government in how its AI is used.

These points eventually led to a banning of the use of Anthropic by the U.S. Department of War, as Anthropic was deemed a “supply chain risk to national security.”

But the reality is that even without the U.S. government’s business, Anthropic’s business has been booming, and it needs far more compute that it currently has access to.

Which leads us to the deal with SpaceXAI, and why it came as such a surprise.

It has been no secret that Elon Musk has never liked what Anthropic has been building.

He went to far as to label Anthropic as “evil” and a company that hates Western civilization.

Source: Elon Musk

The irony of Anthropic’s name has been particularly poignant to Musk, noting that “Anthropic is Misanthropic.”

Musk has consistently taken issue with Anthropic over the last year because of how Anthropic programs mistruths into its models.

Anthropic has been abusing its current position, much in the same way that Google, Meta, and Microsoft did during the pandemic, something that I find dangerous and yes… evil.

It’s a certainty that the people of Anthropic don’t care much for Musk, either…

But without the additional computational resources, Anthropic was in a bind.

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Dealing with the Devil

SpaceXAI has something that Anthropic’s other providers don’t have: excess available AI computational resources.

This is evidenced by Anthropic’s announcement last week:

Anthropic is doubling Claude Code’s five-hour rate limits for Pro, Max, Team, and seat-based Enterprise plans…
Removing the peak hours limit reduction on Claude Code for Pro and Max accounts…
And raising its API rate limits considerably for Claude Opus models.

Just have a look at the dramatic rate limit increases in the table below…

Source: Anthropic

The demand for Anthropic’s AI has been so severe that it has been forced to limit the usage for its customers.

This became a massive problem in recent months, so much so that it cut the deal with SpaceXAI.

Meanwhile, Musk’s willingness to conduct business with (mis)Anthropic was such an about-face that it required some explanation from Musk.

Smartly, he met with the Anthropic team to evaluate whether he would be all right doing business with them.

It wasn’t without a caveat, though.

“So long as they engage in critical self-examination, Claude will probably be good.”

That certainly suggests that if Anthropic doesn’t clean up its act and stick to the truth, the deal could be at risk.

Many journalists misunderstood and mistook the deal to suggest that SpaceXAI has given up on its aspirations to become the world’s leading AI model, the first to AGI, and ultimately ASI.

“They” also suggested that SpaceXAI didn’t have use for its own AI data center capacity, so it decided to lease it out.

They’re all so wrong.

Out with the Old, In with the New

xAI’s Colossus 1 was its first foray into building an AI data center.

It was a record-breaking feat, one that showed the industry was possible.

But xAI didn’t rest. It immediately built Colossus 2, which now stands at 550,000 GPUs and is the largest homogenous AI data center in the world.

xAI is also known as being the most efficient at training its AI models, meaning it can achieve more with less compute.

SpaceXAI is leasing out its “old” AI data center to Anthropic and keeping its most advanced AI data center to itself.

Anthropic gets what it needs immediately, and SpaceXAI immediately starts getting paid for AI computational resources, giving it a source of revenue leading up to its IPO.

Musk also demonstrates his willingness to work on fair and reasonable terms with a competitor, something that Musk has demonstrated with SpaceX and even Tesla.

And if that’s not exciting enough, part of the Anthropic/SpaceXAI deal is to further the partnership to develop “multiple gigawatts of orbital AI compute capacity.”

Not only is SpaceXAI now competing directly with Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle for terrestrial web services, it is already cutting deals to dominate in orbital web services (OWS), a completely new industry.

Jeff

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If you’ve been on the fence about The 10 AM Bell — this Wednesday is for you.

It’s Blake.

I want to talk to a specific group of you for a minute.

Some of you have heard me talk about The 10 AM Bell over the last few weeks. You’ve read the emails. You’ve seen the numbers I’ve shared. And you’ve been sitting on the same question the whole time:

“Is this actually a fit for me?”

I get it. It’s a fair question. And it’s the right one to ask before you commit your time, your money, and your attention to anything in this business.

So this Wednesday at 3:00 PM Eastern, I’m putting on a special event.

It’s for the fence-sitters.

Everyone who’s been looking at The 10 AM Bell from the outside, wondering whether it’s the real thing, wondering whether it works for someone like them, wondering whether the year I just had is repeatable. This event is built specifically for you. To give you one last chance to fully evaluate it, in my own voice, with every receipt on the table, before the door shuts on Thursday.

Here’s what just happened.

453 winning trades. 11 winning months out of 12. A $5,000 account turned into $14,459 — a 189% return. Done before lunch, every single morning.

The best 12-month run any individual trader has ever produced at TheoTrade. Same market every other trader was looking at. Same screen. Same morning hours. Different bell. Completely different year.

While the 9:30 grinders were getting chopped up in the morning panic — chasing the spike, taking the stop-runs, losing $400 by 10:15 with the whole day still ahead — I was waiting 30 minutes. Waiting for the dust to settle. Waiting for the 10 AM Bell. Done by lunch. Every morning.

On Wednesday, I’m going to walk you through every month of that year.

And I’m going to bring two new things to this one I haven’t shared before.

First, a new deep dive into how the system actually works — the depth I would only normally go to in a paid setting. Second, news for anyone who’s been on the fence about whether to install The 10 AM Bell into their own trading. The people in the room hear it first.

Thursday, May 14, I start working with a new group of traders to install The 10 AMBell into their trading — and this opportunity shuts behind them. Wednesday afternoon is the door. Thursday morning, it shuts.

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Claim Your Seat — Wednesday 3 PM Eastern

Save your spot and the full 12-month track record report will hit your inbox immediately. Read the receipts before Wednesday. Then show up and let me tell you the rest.

Wednesday, May 13. 3:00 PM Eastern. Live. This one is for the fence-sitters. I’d love to see you there.

Blake Young

The 10 AM Bell

P.S. If you’ve been watching from the sidelines — this is the one I want you in the room for. Wednesday at 3 PM Eastern. After Thursday, year two starts and the door shuts behind it. Save your seat here.

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