Welcome to The Pregame Lineup, a weekday newsletter that gets you up to speed on everything you need to know for today’s games, while catching you up on fun and interesting stories you might have missed. Today’s edition is brought to you by David Adler.
Ronald Acuña Jr. and Juan Soto have been linked since they were rookies in 2018, when it became immediately clear that, despite Acuña being just 20 years old and Soto just 19, these were two of the future faces of Major League Baseball.
The friendly rivalry between the two players has only blossomed over the years, as both Acuña and Soto have, indeed, become superstars.
So right now, it’s only fitting that they’re heating up at the exact same time.
Soto has hit nine home runs in his last 15 games for the Mets, batting .382 with a 1.341 OPS over that span.
And Acuña? He’s homered in four consecutive games for the Braves, with five total homers and four stolen bases in those last four games. That’s the power-speed star we know and love.
Soto’s Mets and Acuña’s Braves are in very different places as the calendar flips to June, but it’s fun to see the two of them playing at the top of their game, just like old times.
Soto is doing his best to drag the Mets back into contention. This weekend, his Sunday grand slam was the swing that punctuated New York’s sweep of the Marlins, the team’s best offensive series of the year. But the Mets are still in fourth place in the NL East at 26-33.
The Braves, on the other hand, are the only team in the Majors with 40 wins. Acuña’s power surge helped them get to that mark over the weekend.
If you were looking for something else Aaron Judge is awesome at, besides “breaking home run records” and “winning MVP trophies” and “being the most dangerous hitter on the planet” … well, we’ve got something for you.
Judge has been really good at ABS challenges, too.
And it’s not just about the 6-foot-7 slugger picking out the missed calls at the bottom of the strike zone, where umpires have historically had a tough time calling his zone accurately, just because Judge is so tall even compared to other Major League hitters.
Judge isn’t challenging a ton of calls, but he’s shown a good eye for picking out the ones he’s going to win, in situations where flipping those called strikes to balls matters a lot.
And on the flip side, he’s also shown restraint at not challenging the pitches he shouldn’t — called strikes that other hitters with worse eyes might challenge … and would lose. That’s also valuable. Judge doesn’t waste the Yankees’ challenges by pulling the trigger at the wrong time.
If there’s anyone who could possibly have a case to win Pitcher of the Month over a guy who just threw 39 innings without allowing a single run, it’s the Miz … who also just won his first career Player of the Week Award.
The Brewers flamethrower barely missed out on a scoreless month of his own — Misiorowski pitched 38 1/3 innings in May and only allowed one lonely run. That’s a 0.23 ERA. But the big thing is the strikeouts: The Miz racked up 57 K’s in May, a full dozen more than Sánchez.
And while Sánchez’s stuff is nasty in its own right, particularly his changeup, Misiorowski has the most purely explosive stuff in baseball.
Consider this: Misiorowski threw 241 pitches 100 mph or faster in May. Since pitch tracking began in 2008, that is by far the most triple-digit heaters thrown by a pitcher in a single month.
Most 100+ mph pitches in a single month
2008-present
241 — Jacob Misiorowski, May 2026
175 — Jordan Hicks, August 2018
160 — Aroldis Chapman, August 2016
139 — Aroldis Chapman, July 2016
139 — Mauricio Cabrera, July 2016
139 — Joel Zumaya, June 2009
The Miz also set the record for most 100-plus mph strikeouts in a single month in the pitch-tracking era. Thirty-six of his K’s were on triple-digit fastballs, which is 15 more than any other pitcher (Chapman had 21 in July 2012).
Every game, it seems like, Misiorowski does something mind-boggling when it comes to velocity — like in his last start of May, when he threw 20 straight 100-plus mph fastballs to start the game.
Now we’ll just have to wait and see how he ups the ante in June.
AROUND THE LEAGUE THIS WEEKEND
A monkey off a superstar’s back, a souvenir for the Tarps Off crowd and more highlighted the action around the Majors this weekend.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. finally — finally! — hit his first home run of the season on Saturday. The Padres superstar had gone his first 238 plate appearances of 2026 without homering. It was almost unbelievable. But Tatis took out 55 games’ worth of frustration with one swing, crushing a 114 mph, 451-foot blast for home run No. 1.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong, hearing “Overrated!” chants from Cardinals fans in St. Louis on Saturday, responded by blasting a home runstraight to the rowdiest part of the ballpark — the “Tarps Off” section where the most enthusiastic, and shirtless, fans congregate. That’s gotta be the best way to silence the haters.
• Even the Bronx Bombers don’t put up innings like this every day. The Yankees scored 13 runs in the third inning against the A’s yesterday, tied for their biggest inning in 106 years. The only time the Yanks have ever scored more than 13 runs in an inning was on July 6, 1920, when Babe Ruth & Co. put up 14 in the fifth inning against the Washington Senators.
• The Dodgers got the series win in their NLDS rematch vs. the Phillies, thanks to a postseason-esque performance by Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the rubber game. The Dodgers ace struck out 10, a season high, over 5 1/3 scoreless innings.
THE NEW KID ON THE BLOCK
The Mariners’ new kid is making us nostalgic for the Mariners’ old Kid.
Twenty-year-old Colt Emerson, Seattle’s top prospect and MLB Pipeline’s No. 5 overall, smacked his second big league home run over the weekend. But more importantly: Emerson’s sweet lefty swing is evoking the sweet lefty swing of all sweet lefty swings: Ken Griffey Jr.’s.
Now Emerson just has to hit, oh, about 600 more homers to really copycat Griffey. We believe in you, kid.
THIS IS BIG MAC’S YARD
The original Backyard Baseball game, released in 1997, was not merely popular at the time. The computer game, in which players drafted teams from a group of neighborhood kids, has become something of a cultural touchstone for a generation of fans since it cut to the essence of what makes the national pastime special and accessible for everyone.
The player everyone remembers is the legendary Pablo Sanchez, but sequel Backyard Baseball 2001 added MLB superstars to the mix. The Cardinals’ representative was, of course, Mark McGwire. And if you’re a St. Louis fan who has fond memories of this game and/or the Big Mac era, tomorrow is your night.
Fans who purchase a special ticket for the Cardinals’ game against the Rangers on Tuesday get an exclusive McGwire Backyard Baseball Bobblehead. Not within shouting distance of Busch Stadium? Not to worry: the Rays, Giants and Pirates all have Pablo Sanchez Bobblehead Nights on the schedule in the next couple of months.
Every fan has a bucket list. Most never finish it. We’re changing that.
In partnership with T-Mobile, we’re sending one winner and their favorite person on the ultimate tour of America’s storied Ballparks. The seats are waiting. You just have to bring the company.ENTER NOW
NO PURCHASE NECESSARY TO ENTER OR WIN. Starts 12:00am ET on June 1, 2026 and ends 11:59pm ET on September 7, 2026. Open to legal residents of the United States (including its commonwealths, territories, and possessions) and Canada (excluding Quebec) who are of legal age of majority. Sixty-six (66) prizes to be awarded. Odds of winning depend on the number of eligible entries received. Online entry only. Limit one (1) entry per person. Void where prohibited. Restrictions apply; see Official Rules atwww.mlb.com/journeyto30sweeps. Sponsor: MLB Advanced Media, L.P.
If there is a single “gift” I would provide to every Porter & Co subscriber, it is the ready ability to distinguish between an average business and a great business.
Great businesses, like truly beautiful women, are rare. And for investors seeking to build real, lasting wealth, finding them is everything. With a great business, time is in your favor. With a great business, every recession is only an opportunity to gain share. With a great business, you don’t ever worry about competitors – they simply come and go.
I’ve written an entire book showing you exactly how to identify a great business. It’s called Warren’s Mistakes, and it walks readers through how Warren Buffett beat the S&P 500 by 11% per year for 30 years. He did it with a portfolio of America’s greatest businesses: Coke, American Express, The Washington Post Company, Gillette, McDonald’s, Disney, and Moody’s.
Of course, the best way to learn anything, as Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) vice chair Charlie Munger explained constantly, is to invert. That’s why my book doesn’t merely explain Buffett’s success, it focuses on his mistakes.
While I must admit it is unlikely that I will ever get you to read my book, I hope I can at least show you some of the lessons in it by looking carefully at the deal Berkshire announced today, the purchase of Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC).
Taylor Morrison is America’s sixth-largest homebuilder. Berkshire is paying $72.50 per share in cash — a 24% premium to where the stock closed Friday. That equals an enterprise value of $8.5 billion. And it values the business, on an enterprise basis, at roughly 10.7x 2025’s $791 million in net income. In the press release, Berkshire’s new CEO, Greg Abel, called Taylor Morrison “a best-in-class national homebuilder.”
Unfortunately, for Berkshire shareholders, it’s not. It isn’t even close. And I’d bet long-time readers of my work know what Berkshire should have bought instead.
In November 2007, in the depths of the housing collapse, I explained to investors why there’s only one homebuilder in America worth owning – NVR (NVR). Not because the others weren’t cheap – they were all cheap, down more than 50% from their highs. But because only one of them is a genuinely great business. I called NVR “not only the best company in the homebuilder sector” but “one of the truly exceptional businesses in the world.”
NVR went bankrupt in the early 1990s. It owned too much land and thus had too much debt to survive the 1990-91 recession. The experience turned its managers into fanatics about capital discipline.
Necessity is the mother of invention. As the company emerged from bankruptcy, it didn’t have enough capital to buy huge swaths of land. So it had to partner with developers. In the process, it invented the “land-lite” housing model. NVR doesn’t own raw land. It pays small, non-refundable deposits to option finished lots from third-party developers. It only takes title when someone is ready to buy a house. If a market sours, NVR walks away and forfeits the deposit. It never gets stuck holding billions in depreciating dirt.
The result, as I wrote in 2007, was “the highest returns on assets in the sector” and a balance sheet that was “nearly debt-free.”Those facts are still true today. NVR was trading around $400 a share when I recommended it in 2007. It trades above $6,000 today – despite a big recent drawdown as the housing market has suffered over the last two years.
It isn’t hard to compare NVR to Taylor Morrison, although doing so feels like picking on a retarded kid. In 2025, NVR earned a 44% return on invested capital (“ROIC”) and a 33% return on equity (“ROE”). Taylor Morrison earned 11% ROIC and 13% ROE. Over the full decade from 2016 through 2025, NVR’s ROIC averaged roughly 50%. Taylor Morrison’s averaged about 9%.
NVR earns 50 cents of operating profit for every dollar of capital employed. Taylor Morrison can’t crack a double-digit return on capital. So… why would anyone ever want to own that business?
Keep in mind, they build houses in the same country, at similar prices, to similar customers, at nearly identical gross margins – around 23% last year. The difference is not what they sell. It’s how much capital they have to bury in the ground to sell it.
You can see exactly where the capital goes. Taylor Morrison ended last year with $6.5 billion of inventory – land and houses – on its balance sheet. NVR, while generating more revenue, carried $1.7 billion of inventory. NVR turns its inventory more than 4x a year; Taylor Morrison turns it less than once. NVR converts a sale to cash in about 71 days. Taylor Morrison takes 376 days – its money sits trapped in dirt for more than a year before it comes back.
And the balance sheets tell the rest of the story. NVR ended 2025 with $1.9 billion in cash and negative net debt. NVR maintains a net cash position. Taylor Morrison carries net debt of more than 1x earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (“EBITDA”). One company is built to survive the next downturn and buy when everyone else is forced to sell. The other will spend the next bust the way the bad builders spent the last one: negotiating with its bankers.
But that’s not the real advantage.
What you’ll learn when you read Warren’s Mistakes is the enormous advantage capital efficient businesses have over time. You see, because NVR uses so little capital, it can return almost all of it. The company shovels mountains of cash into buybacks – $1.8 billion of stock repurchased in 2025 alone. Over the last decade, NVR shrank its share count 25% and drove earnings per share 4x – from about $104 to $437.
That is a compounding machine. And it is going to continue compounding, whether this housing slump lasts another year or another decade.
Taylor Morrison buys stock too: shares of other marginal builders, most recently William Lyon Homes and AV Homes. How’s that working out? It’s a bigger pile of capital that is generating meager 9% returns. That is not value creation. That is empire-building, which is exactly what Greg Abel is doing at Berkshire.
Ironically, this isn’t the first time Berkshire has made this mistake.
In 2003, Berkshire paid $1.7 billion to take Clayton Homes private. And, just like today, what Berkshire got was a capital-hungry, marginal business. Clayton is a manufactured-housing company bolted to a high-interest lender. How does it make money? It sells trailer homes to poor people. The homes depreciate faster than the loans amortize. Sure, poor people need somewhere to live, but this is a very tough business because, quite simply, its product doesn’t create any value for the people who buy it. It’s clearly a business that Berkshire shouldn’t have ever bought.
And it didn’t just buy Clayton – it has invested heavily in growing it. It built Clayton’s mortgage portfolio from $5.4 billion in 2003 to more than $13 billion today. It bought up the plants, stores, and loan books of failed competitors, too. The real capital employed by Berkshire into Clayton today isn’t $1.7 billion – it’s more like $13 billion to $15 billion.
These enormous, ongoing capital investments are what Berkshire’s conglomerate model is designed to hide. Let me explain.
Measured against the original $1.7 billion check, Clayton looks like a triumph: its roughly $1.9 billion of pre-tax earnings in 2024 is more than the entire purchase price! But once you count all the capital Berkshire has sunk into Clayton – the loan book, the factories, the competitors it bought – the return on capital employed collapses to roughly 12% to 14% pre-tax, or about 9% to 11% after tax. That is a mediocre, single-digit-to-low-double-digit business. It is, in other words, the same 9% return as Taylor Morrison.
But what if Berkshire had just bought the best business in the industry, NVR, and never invested another penny?
NVR earns a 44% ROIC – roughly 3x to 4x the return Clayton Homes generates on capital. Had Berkshire taken the same $1.7 billion it spent on Clayton equity in 2003 and simply bought NVR, that stake would be worth about $22 billion today – a 13-fold gain – without another dollar invested, because NVR funds itself and hands its cash back (via share buybacks).
Run those same returns with the full $13 billion to $15 billion Berkshire has tied up in Clayton, and the delta becomes obscene. The realistic, conservative cost of choosing Clayton over NVR is somewhere north of $50 billion in forgone value. Berkshire didn’t just pick the wrong horse. It spent two decades shoveling feed into it.
Now with the Taylor Morrison deal, Abel says Berkshire intends to “unify our site-built homebuilding operations into a combined platform.” In other words: take the bad manufactured-housing bet, staple a capital-heavy, single-digit-return site-built homebuilder to it, and call the combination “strategy.” This is the entire conglomerate fantasy expressed in a single deal. And it won’t work.
What Berkshire should do is spin off or sell Clayton Homes and invest the capital into America’s best homebuilder, a company that creates tremendous value for its customers and its shareholders. That’s NVR.
Here is the part that should make every Berkshire shareholder wince.
Berkshire’s entire genius – the thing that made it the greatest compounding story in the history of American capitalism – was using insurance float to buy wonderful businesses. Float is other people’s money: premiums collected today against claims paid years from now. It costs almost nothing, and it grows. Buffett’s insight was that you could take that nearly free capital and invest it in the best businesses in the world – Coca-Cola, American Express, GEICO, See’s Candies – capital-light compounders that throw off cash.
A naive investor will look at Taylor Morrison trading below book value and call it a bargain. But the book value is the disease, not the cure. You are paying 90 cents on the dollar for $6.5 billion of slow-turning land that earns 9%. Buffett, of all people, taught us that price-to-book is meaningless once a business stops needing the capital.
Strip away the names, and the deal is depressingly familiar. Berkshire passes on the wonderful, capital-light, publicly traded compounder. It pays a premium for the capital-hungry, low-return business. It takes the bad business private, where its poor economics can hide. And it calls the whole thing a long-term commitment to housing.
It is the railroad and the utilities all over again.
P.S. Porter & Co. analysts are aligned on one common thesis… That in one way or another we are due for a major financial reset. Porter invited each of them to discuss the melt-up and eventual meltdown – and the video discussion they recorded last month offering all the details is coming down at midnight. Click here to watch it now and learn what Porter, Tech Frontiers editor Erez Kalir, and Distressed Investing’s Marty Fridson have to say… and hear what analyst Justin Brill thinks about a new publication he is spearheading to help investors weather the storm.
Presented By: Paradigm Press
Oil Prices Could Send These Three Stocks Soaring
If the turmoil in the Middle East has you rushing to buy oil stocks right now – STOP and read this.
The biggest gains from the last oil crisis didn’t come from oil companies.
The top-performing energy stocks were tiny. Practically unknown. And every major oil company in America was completely dependent on them.
Today, it’s the exact scenario— except the scale is roughly 13,000 times larger.
Editor’s Note: Keep in mind, we only accept advertising from publishers we know to offer well-researched ideas vetted by a legal team, excellent customer service, and reasonable refund policies. Paradigm Press is one such partner. We do not, however, under any circumstances make any representations about their investment ideas or strategies, nor will we warrant them as equal to our own. We do recognize that the markets are tempestuous and, at times, ideas that we may not endorse prove valuable.
Things To Know Before We Go
1. Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) stocks fuel the bull market.Goldman Sachs has created two market indexes that split the S&P 500 into a basket of AI-related and non-AI-related stocks. Since February 27, the day before the market correction sparked by the Iran War, the basket of AI stocks has provided all of the gains while non-AI stocks have generated a negative return – a theme we’ve seen for the past three years.
2. AI is taking over the world’s bond markets. AI hyperscalers – including Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) – have doubled non-dollar debt issuance to 30% of their total bond funding this year, according to Bank of America. Alphabet, in particular, is now the fourth-largest pound-sterling corporate borrower and a top-10 issuer in euros, yen, and Swiss francs – setting borrowing records across all four currencies to fund the trillions it plans to spend on AI data centers. Every major bond market on Earth is now long the AI trade.
3. New Fed chair wants a new inflation ruler. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is looking to trim the parts of the inflation metric with the most extreme monthly price moves. To do so, he points to the Dallas Fed’s personal consumption expenditures (“PCE”) formula that measured inflation at 2.3% in April, a full point under the 3.3% core PCE, dumping the energy shock the Iran war is causing. The economists who built the PCE measure are warning Warsh off from doing this, noting it will badly understate persistent inflation.
Chart Of The Day… Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE)
Shares of cash-burning space-tourism firm Virgin Galactic (SPCE) have nearly tripled in the past week, reportedly on speculation that investors may mistakenly buy the stock thinking it’s Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which is set to trade under the ticker SPCX following its widely anticipated initial public offering (“IPO”) later this month.
Mailbag
In Friday’s Daily Journal Justin Brill wrote about how the crypto space has been changing in the last few years, gaining wider adoptrion by key financial institutions. Readers share their thoughs…
“Crypto” — Hugh S. Writes:
Justin and Porter:
Thanks for this and you are so right. Hang on for the ride.
This is going to be bigger than TPL.
Readers have continued to write in about Porter’s new, now best-selling book, which he published last month. 2029: The End of Americais available on Amazon.
“Europe Versus America” — Lee B. Writes:
2029: The End of America, like all of your work, is thoroughly researched, well documented, cogently argued, and interesting to read. Any thoughts on how subscribers in Europe might be affected differently, if at all? Do you think the Euro will fare any better than the dollar? Thanks
“Cantillion Geography” — Bill W. Writes:
Hey Porter
You said, ‘Tell me what you think of today’s Journal… good, bad, or anything inbetween.’
Okay: You nailed it.
Here’s my proofs:
#1. In 1969, the local Safeway grocery store offered me a bagging job right out of high school, a union job! I declined because I was going to be out of the country for two years and wanted to have some fun first. I returned in 1972 and wanted to get married. So I went back to Safeway to grab that bagging job: “Sorry, we don’t have any openings right now.” I couldn’t get that same job, or any other, because Nixon killed the dollar whilst I was overseas, and jobs dried up. By the time I got gainfully employed, my fiancé dropped me! Her dad said, “The bum doesn’t have a job. And I’ll pay for your out-of-state college tuition!” I don’t blame her – marry a guy with no job? Don’t blame her one bit. I felt like a bum, too, because I was a hard worker and could not find work. So I painted houses to get through college.
#2. In 1975, I bought a house in Los Angeles for $48,500. Four years later, I sold it for $149,000 and moved out of state.
#3. We moved two more times between 1980 and 1993, each time, making money (correction, “harvesting inflation”).
#4. In 1993, we bought a house in Alexandria, Virginia, for $174,000. We sold it in 2014 for $525,000. Note that we lived in your Washington, D.C., Cantillon area for 28 years. We both worked for a couple of members of Congress, then moved on to the lobbying shops where I was a policy analyst and Karen was a speechwriter for a) the Republican National Committee, b) President Bush, and c) two industries: insurance and manufacturers of wooden pallets and containers. We were in that lower-middle rung of the advocacy industry – not among the ones making millions.
Summary: I’ve lived through much of what your article talks about, and lived inside the Cantillion geography. You nailed it.
Porter & Co. Market Snapshot
PriceFriday’s ReturnYear-to-Date ReturnS&P 500 Index$7,580.060.22%11.2%Gold per ounce$4,560.500.99%3.5%Bitcoin$73,372.52-0.32%-19%Oil (West Texas Intermediate) per barrel$87.36-1.34%63%Berkshire Hathaway (BRK)$710,900.00-0.67%-5.8%Porter’s Permanent Portfolio–0.21%-1.6%The Better Than Berkshire Index–0.86%2.1%YieldFriday’s ChangeChange Year-to-DateU.S Treasury 30-Year Yield4.97%0 bps13 bpsPrices as of 4:00 pm ET May 29, 2026 | bps = basis points (or 0.01%)*A Complete Investor risk rating of 1 is defined as a “low risk, high allocation” security, while positions rated closer to a 5 are higher risk. Porter & Co.’s top-ranked positions include those rated either 1 or 2 in Complete Investor portfolio.
Porter & Co. Top Positions
PublicationTickerDescriptionTotal ReturnComplete InvestorBWXTBWX Technologies243%Tech FrontiersQUREuniQure237%Complete InvestorBTC/USDBitcoin172%Complete InvestorARMARM Holdings155%Tech FrontiersSGMTSagimet Biosciences135%Tech FrontiersROIVRoivant Sciences133%Tech FrontiersQUREuniQure131%Complete InvestorPMPhilip Morris120%Distressed InvestingPTONPeloton Interactive114%Tech FrontiersTGTXTG Therapeutics109%Prices as of 4:00 pm ET May 29, 2026
Please note: The investments in our “Porter & Co. Top Positions” should not be considered current recommendations. These positions are the best performers across our publications – and the securities listed may (or may not) be above the current buy-up-to price. To learn more, visit the current recommendations page of the relevant service, here. To gain access or to learn more about our current recommendations, call our Customer Care team at 888-610-8895 or internationally at +1 443-815-4447.
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Disclaimer: Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. Do not consider any communication between you and Porter & Company, and its employees or writers as financial advice. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. Insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. All investments carry risk. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. Consider consulting with a professional before making investment decisions. Please be aware that by accessing this publication, you acknowledge and agree that Porter & Co. and its editors and affiliates may, at any time, buy or sell securities discussed in this publication without prior notice. This may result in potential conflicts of interest, as Porter & Co., its editors, and affiliates may have a financial interest in the securities mentioned. The views expressed in this publication are subject to change without notice and reflect the personal opinions of the authors and speakers.
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This year, we gather under the theme, BEGIN AGAIN! Roots, Sacred Rhetoric & Revolutionary Mothering, returning to the sacred ground, deep memory, and shared moral work that have shaped Hall-Proctorfor generations. Together, faith leaders, advocates, organizers, young people, and partners will reflect, learn, worship, and prepare to act boldly for a future where every child can grow up with dignity, hope, and joy.
Lock in your reduced registration rate today and make plans to join us on the Farm July 13-16, 2026.Register Today
We’re also excited to invite you to our first pre-Institute webinar:
Welcome Home: First-Timer Orientation to Hall-Proctor and Alex Haley Farm
Thursday, June 18, 2026
7 p.m. ET
Are you attending Hall-Proctor for the first time? Have you been coming for years, but want to hear more about the amazing things we’re planning for 2026? This webinar will welcome participants into the story, spirit, and rhythm of Hall-Proctor, share what to expect during the week, and help you prepare practically and spiritually for your time at Alex Haley Farm.
More details and webinar access information will be shared soon.
We hope you will join us as we begin again, together.
Over the past two days I’ve explained what we do and why we operate the way we do.
Today I want to make it practical – so that when something lands in your inbox, you know exactly how to read it and what to take away from it.
First, a distinction worth understanding: not everything we send is an alert.
Watchlist Posts vs. Alerts – What’s the Difference?
You’ll receive two types of analysis from us, and they mean very different things.
A watchlist post is us saying: “We’ve found something interesting and we’re watching it closely.” The stock has caught our attention – it may be deeply oversold, showing signs of a potential setup, or sitting in a position where the fundamentals and the price are starting to diverge. We’re sharing it early so you can follow along as the situation develops.
Watchlist posts do not mean the setup has confirmed. They’re a heads up, not a signal.
An alert is different. When we issue an alert, it means the setup has moved through our full evaluation process and we believe the risk-reward is compelling enough to bring to your attention with a high degree of conviction. The technicals, the fundamentals, the sentiment, and a specific confirmation trigger have all aligned.
The gap between a watchlist post and an alert can be days, weeks, or sometimes never – if a setup we’re watching deteriorates before it confirms, we’ll tell you we’re removing it from the watchlist and why. That transparency is intentional.
Why does this distinction matter?
Because it changes how you read what we send. A watchlist post is the beginning of a story. An alert is us saying the story has developed to the point where the setup is actionable.
Some subscribers enjoy following the watchlist posts and tracking how setups evolve before confirmation. Others focus primarily on the alerts. Both are completely valid ways to use this newsletter.
Now – here’s how to read our full analyses.
Whether it’s a watchlist post or a full alert, our analyses follow a consistent structure. Here’s what each section is doing and why it matters.
The Setup Summary
Every analysis opens with a high-level snapshot of the situation – what happened to the stock, why the market reacted the way it did, and why we think the reaction may be overdone. Read this first to orient yourself to the story.
The Technical Picture
This section covers what the chart is telling us – oversold readings, key support levels, volume patterns, and historical context. We’re looking for a convergence of signals that suggest selling pressure may be exhausting itself, not just a single indicator flashing green.
The Fundamental Case
This is where we dig into the actual business. Revenue trends, margins, earnings results, and guidance. The central question we’re answering: does the stock price reflect what’s actually happening in the business, or has fear created a disconnect?
This is also where we identify what caused the selloff and whether it’s temporary or structural. A one-time accounting charge is very different from a deteriorating customer base. We make that distinction explicit.
Sentiment and Analyst Positioning
Here we look at what professional analysts think, where institutional money has been moving, and whether broader sentiment has reached an extreme. When 80-90% of Wall Street maintains Buy ratings while a stock sits near 52-week lows, that gap between perception and value is worth examining.
The Risk-Reward Breakdown
Every analysis includes a clear picture of the upside and downside scenarios – the support levels that need to hold, the resistance levels that represent logical targets, and what the setup looks like if things go wrong. We always present both the bull and bear case, because understanding the risk is as important as understanding the opportunity.
A note on how we frame our analysis
You won’t find language like “guaranteed” or “can’t miss” in our work. No setup is certain, and we believe the most useful analysis is honest analysis – one that gives you the information to think through a situation yourself rather than just telling you what to conclude.
When we’re high-conviction, you’ll know it from the weight of evidence we present. When something is on the watchlist but waiting for confirmation, we’ll say that clearly too.
That’s the sequence you’ve just completed.
You now understand what we look for, why we wait for confirmation before issuing alerts, and how to read our analysis when it arrives – whether it’s a watchlist post or a full alert.
From here, you’ll hear from us when we have something worth sharing. We cover losses honestly, not just wins. And when a setup we were watching doesn’t pan out, we’ll tell you that too.
Welcome aboard. I’m glad you’re here.
Steve Direction Alerts
P.S. – Questions about anything you’ve read this week? Just hit reply. I read every response.
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“Every new beginning carries within it the quiet promise that what comes next can be better than what came before.”
There is something quietly powerful about stepping into a new month. It’s an invitation to release what didn’t serve you and move forward with fresh intention. You don’t have to have everything figured out to begin again — you only have to be willing. Bring what you’ve learned, leave what you don’t need, and step into this new season open to what it has for you. Something good is already underway.MORE INSPIRATION
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By 2033, the market for kiosk tech is projected to double in size. And Automated Retail Technologies has been front and center since 2021. ART has 800+ robotic restaurant kiosks deployed across partners like White Castle, Nestlé, Aramark, and more, resulting in 8X growth since 2022. And White Castle alone just signed on for 1,000 more units. A Shark Tank investor already joined. Invest alongside him today. Continue Reading ➔ Disclosure: This is a paid advertisement for Automated Retail Technologies Regulation CF offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.qnetic.energy/. This Regulation Crowdfunding investment is speculative and involves risk, including possible loss of your entire investment. Offerings are conducted through a registered intermediary; review all offering materials and risk factors before investing. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be unlawful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. Cathie Wood Dumps AMD Shares Once Again, Ark Buys Cerebras And This Peter Thiel-Backed Crypto Play
The AI trade is running full throttle. But it won’t last forever. It’s not time to abandon AI stocks completely, but it IS time to prepare for the inevitable slowdown. Futurist Eric is giving away 7 free trade ideas in his “Sell This, Buy That” research package, where he reveals which market moves you need to make today (starting with getting rid of Nvidia stock.) Access these trade ideas here.Top 4 S&P 500 Stocks To Watch Next Week: CRM, MRVL, COST, DELL
The movement of basic materials stocks requires investors to keep a keen eye on the state of the economy to determine profitability. Raw materials such as plastic, steel, and lumber will always be in demand. Here are 7 stocks to take advantage of the growing demand!
DURHAM, N.H. (AP) — After outliving Booker T. Bones, their second service dog, Brenda and Brian Marquis still needed help with some of the more difficult parts of daily life. Continue Reading ➔
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🧨Anthropic Crashes the SpaceX IPO Party… Donnie Gets Left on Read
The same intrusive thoughts that directed Dario Amodei to announce on live tv that 50% of tech workers would be coked out of their minds and pan handling on the street soon… once again made a surprise entrance.
Because now that we’ve officially entered June (aka SpaceX IPO countdown season), Anthropic has decided to steal a little of the spotlight.
The AI company behind Claude (and one of the few firms on Earth capable of making OpenAI glance nervously over its shoulder) has reportedly filed to go public.
You just know Elon’s fuming right now scrolling Twitter seeing “finfluencers” crank out Substack posts with headlines like “Bigger Than SpaceX?” despite spending last week explaining how Anthropic leasing capacity from Colossus was actually a massive win for Musk’s upcoming IPO. (How the turn tables).
Anyways, stonks were in the green yet again thanks to Nvidia’s new laptop chip and Iran peace talks both doing their part. The S&P 500 (+.5%) and the Nasdaq (+.7%) continued their legendary run… while the Dow did absolutely nothing.
Of course, the biggest WTF moment of the day was Nvidia (+5%) which had AI bros going nuts after Jensen unveiled a new processor for PCs that he claims could replace the need for data centers. In response, Intel got taken to the cleaners (-3%) with “I’m scared I’m gonna lose my job” energy that not even a Trump sympathy tweet could help.
Outside of Dario wearing a white dress to Elon’s wedding, and Jensen Huang claiming to have the biggest computer revelation in the last 40 years… Marathon (+3%), Exxon (+2%), and Chevron (+1%) all caught a bid after Iran’s media reported they are done communicating with Donnie and will completely shut the Strait close once again. This comes after Israel attacked Lebanon over the weekend.
When asked about his response, POTUS exclaimed he doesn’t give af if peace negotiations with Iran are over (summarized). He then said he would ask Benjamin Netanyahu “what’s going on with Lebanon.” So yeah, major progress is clearly being made.
And lastly, light one up for Greg Abel who finally did something with that record $397 billion cash pile. In true Buffett fashion, instead of buying a tech stock or something sexy, he opted for spending 2% of it on the homebuilder Taylor Morrison. The stock exploded 22% because when Warren Abel writes you a check…your business must be a sleeping giant.
If you read all of this, congrats for having a 10 second attention span (better than me). As always, here’s our heatmap for today.
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Greg Abel Finally Opens Berkshire’s $397B Piggy Bank… Drops $6.8B on America’s Housing Market
Babe, wake up! Greg Abel finally found the “Buy” button on Berkshire’s brokerage account…
No this is not a dream… after more than 5 months of officially wearing the Berkshire Hathaway CEO badge, and sitting in the big office with a view… Warren Buffett’s handpicked replacement has finally pulled the trigger on his first multi-billion acquisition.
Meaning: we’re finally going to be able to judge him off of you know what he was hired for… as opposed to nitpicking quotes he…
Nvidia Gives PCs Their ChatGPT Moment with AI Superchip Designed to Shrink the Datacenter
Because for Jensen, the world is not enough…
Most CEOs spend their careers trying to dominate survive in one industry. Jensen Huang appears to be collecting them. Because after turning Nvidia into a $5 trillion monopoly by selling every GPU on earth to hyperscalers with AI fever, Huang has now decided it’s time to come for the thing sitting on your desk.
At Computex in Taiwan, the GPU king unveiled his new RTX Spark “superchip” for Windows PCs. And if Jensen gets his way, not only will all our computers operate at supersonic speed… but it will make society as a whole…
Barry Diller Bids $18B to Take MGM Private, Betting AI Can’t Lose It’s A$$ At a Craps Table…
Ole Diller has a fever, and the only prescription is full-send degeneracy…
Well friends, the GOAT who owns Tinder, Match, and Expedia has decided the real money is in the part of the weekend where the degens lose it all. Barry Diller’s People Inc. offered Monday to buy the 74% of MGM Resorts it doesn’t already own, valuing the casino giant north of $18 billion.
The bid, for those wondering, is $48.30 a share, all cash, a 10.6% premium to Friday’s close and the kind of offer that tends to get a board’s full attention. MGM stock lit up 12%. Shares of People… the company formerly known as IAC, which rebranded itself around a magazine in April… managed a comparatively shy 3%.
For context, six years Diller has been content playing just the tip, sitting on 26.1% and a board seat without committing. Monday he decided to buy the whole house. So y now? Apparently, the desire for an 84-year-old media titan to drop $18 big ones on carpet and slot machines simply has to do with the fact that the robots can’t touch it. He told shareholders MGM is “a…
Honeywell’s quantum spinout filed a prospectus that says, out loud, “high error rates” still “limit practical performance.” Then it upsized their IPO offering by 39% (because, math). Quantinuum (read: not just a thermostat company’s hobby anymore) yanked its filing, came back, and reset the deal at 26.5 million shares between $53 and $55, up from 21 million at $45 to $50. The top end values a company in the “early stages of commercial growth” at $14.3 billion. Translation: The building is open, bookies.
For the uninitiated, quantum computing is the new AI in the sense that everyone wants to own it and nobody can explain it (kinda like Palantir). Quantinuum’s S-1 tells you the machines crunch problems “faster than classical computers” and could reshape drug discovery, financial modelling, and cryptography. It also notes, with the politeness of a confession, that “high error rates” still “limit practical performance.” Fine print doing a lot of work in one sentence.
Of course, demand was strong enough to upsize the float and lift the range by 16%. Which is precisely the move you make when retail is camped outside the building, with the macro window for “buy any company that sounds like a Nolan movie” open for exactly this week, before SpaceX backs the brinks truck up to the same parking lot. You might recall that Quantinuum exists because Honeywell stapled its quantum lab to…
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