The Best Way to Invest in Gold

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Editor’s Note: A small, $6 gold mining stock has been quietly setting up for what could be the biggest move in the past 25 years.

That’s why Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld is targeting 100% returns in the short term… and possibly 1,000% or more over the next 24 to 36 months.

The next few days could be crucial.

Click here to see why.

– James Ogletree, Senior Managing Editor

MARKET TRENDS

The Best Way to Invest in Gold

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

The price of gold is about $1,000 off of its all-time high, which was reached in January.

That gives investors who are bullish an opportunity to get in before it climbs again and makes a new high.

There are lots of ways to own gold.

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You could buy physical gold like bars or coins, but then you have to keep it somewhere.

Coins are a little easier to store if you have a bank vault, though you have to pay for it every year. A home safe would probably do the job as long as it can’t be moved or broken into.

Bars are a little tougher to store. If you have a meaningful amount, then you need a sizable vault or safe.

You can pay to have them stored somewhere, but then you don’t physically have them, which is often the point of owning the actual metal.

Another option is the SPDR Gold Trust(NYSE: GLD). This ETF is backed by physical gold, and its objective is to track the price of gold bullion. Despite its expenses, it is a pretty good proxy for the price of gold.

However, there’s a better way to take advantage of an anticipated surge in gold: owning shares of gold miners.

Here’s why…

A miner has fixed costs to pull the gold out of the ground. If it costs $1,500 an ounce to mine the gold and gold costs $3,000, the miner makes $1,500. But if gold rises to $4,000, a 33% increase, the miner’s profit is now $2,500, or 67% higher. If gold reaches $6,000, or a 100% increase, the miner’s profit is $4,500, or 200% higher.

If all things remained equal, that should move the stock price of the miner sharply higher than the price of the metal. If gold rose 100% and the company’s earnings rose 200%, the stock should increase at a 2-1 ratio to the price of gold.

In reality, investors pay for earnings growth, so it’s likely that the miner’s valuation would increase even more.

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If the stock were trading at 10 times earnings when gold was at $3,000, perhaps it would trade for 15 times earnings when gold rises to $6,000 and the company’s profits have tripled, boosting its outperformance even more.

This is why gold miners – especially smaller ones that suddenly see their profits soar – take off in gold bull markets.

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) is a way to get exposure to mining stocks.

It tends to hold larger stocks. The average market cap among its holdings is $48 billion.

Its largest holdings are the gold mining giants you are probably familiar with, such as…

  • Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM)
  • Newmont (NYSE: NEM)
  • Barrick Mining (NYSE: B).

Those three stocks make up 30% of the portfolio.

If you prefer to go smaller, you can invest in the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ).

This portfolio has an average market cap of $9 billion, so we’re not talking real small cap stocks.

The top three holdings are…

  • Alamos Gold (NYSE: AGI), which has a $16 billion market cap
  • Equinox Gold (NYSE: EQX), with an $11 billion market cap
  • Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE), whose market cap is $18 billion.

To get the maximum leverage, I believe you want to go even smaller.

Do keep in mind, though, that the small junior miners have more risk. These are speculative stocks that have the potential to soar, but make sure you can handle the elevated risk.

When researching junior gold miners, look for companies that are already profitable with healthy balance sheets. That should increase your profits if gold rises and reduce your risk if it doesn’t.

If you like the idea of physical gold, there’s nothing wrong with it. Physical gold can give peace of mind.

But if big profits are what you’re after, look to the miners – especially the smaller ones – to take advantage of the next move higher for gold.

Good investing,

Marc

P.S. There’s an exclusive group of junior gold miners that don’t rise in tandem with the price of gold.

Instead, they wait.

They coil like a spring while gold grabs all the headlines… and then – for reasons I explain here – they start running higher.

Much higher.

It’s all part of a repeatable and predictable pattern I’ve discovered that I call “The Gold Stock Lag.”

If you want the opportunity to exploit this situation… just click here to see my full presentation.

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They Mocked His $30K Call

Tuesday, May 5, 2026

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Don here…

Weeks ago Gianni told subscribers the Nasdaq was heading to 29,000 to 30,000. He was laughed at, insulted, and scoffed at.

Today the Nasdaq is up 1.5% and printing fresh all-time highs.

The S&P 500 is pressing into the highs of the day with 7,400 in its sights. Semiconductors ripped nearly 5% to a new all-time high.

Now Gianni says the last bullish domino is starting to fall.

That domino is crypto. After weeks of calling it the final holdout, today’s price action confirmed the breakout.

Here is what Gianni broke down in tonight’s video:

  • Cipher Mining, IREN, and Hut 8 are all hitting new all-time highs as crypto stocks break out. Gianni is watching this group as the cleanest measure of risk appetite in the market.
  • MicroStrategy reports earnings tonight. A close above $185 to $190 opens the door for a move back to $270 to $280 and ends what Gianni called the Michael Saylor apology tour.
  • Gianni booked Intel for a 100% gain on the rally to $100 in the Million Dollar Challenge portfolio last week. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has since ripped nearly 5% to fresh highs.

One more counterintuitive signal is worth flagging. Bombs were flying in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday and crude oil is still down today.

Gianni says the risk profile in crude is changing. A break of $100 opens the door for a slide back to $90.

👉 Click here to watch Gianni break down the crypto breakout, the MicroStrategy earnings setup, and the oil signal flying under the radar

To your success,

Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

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Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA|SIPC|NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment. Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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The Options Market Already Knows


Don here…

Anyone watching block trades in late April had the Intel and Micron setups before the rally started. By the time those names hit financial media this week, the move was already half over.

That’s the problem most retail traders never solve. They stare at price action and try to reverse-engineer why things move.

Brandon Chapman calls the fix “starting with the block.” You let institutional money tell you what matters, then you analyze only those names instead of chasing every ticker in the universe.

The options market is the tail that wags the dog. If you ignore the option chain, you miss the forces actually driving price.

In today’s free session replay, you’ll discover:

  • Why dealer hedging drives intraday price action more than fundamentals do. Positive gamma stabilizes prices around a level while negative gamma accelerates moves in both directions.
  • How high short interest names like Groupon, Wendy’s, and ARRY produce such anomalous upside moves. Shorts buy calls to hedge, dealers carry massive negative delta, and the squeeze potential becomes mechanical.
  • The information one institutional block trade gives you all at once. Symbol, direction, target price, and time frame in a single print, often days before the catalyst hits.
  • Why the stories on Intel and Micron were already written in late April. If you’re chasing those names this week, you’re trading the second half of a move that institutional money positioned for weeks ago.

Most retail traders miss this fundamental point. Markets move when option positioning forces dealers to hedge their books.

That’s mechanical and predictable. It’s the framework professionals use to stay ahead of the move instead of reacting to it after the fact.

The framework removes guesswork from earnings trading. Once you see how a block print delivers symbol, direction, target, and time frame in one signal, you start spotting these setups everywhere.

→ Watch Brandon explain how institutional block trades reveal earnings setups before the catalyst hits and which three names are positioned right now

To your success, 

Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

P.S. Want to see the Block Hunter in action? Join Brandon at 2PM tomorrow when he breaks down the biggest institutional tradese of the day and how to play them. Click Here to add the event to your calendar.


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Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade.com  or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA |SIPC |NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment.Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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Must Read: AI Isn’t Done, but the Leaders Might Be

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AI Isn’t Done, but the Leaders Might Be

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Editor’s Note:  Prefer to listen? You can now listen to today’s issue by clicking here.

Most investors assume the biggest gains in a new technology come from the companies that build it first. That’s not usually how it works.

My colleague Eric Fry believes that’s exactly what’s happening with AI right now.

The Magnificent Seven stocks led the first phase of the AI boom. But as Eric puts it, their best days may already be in the rearview mirror. 

Meanwhile, as spending rises and competition increases, a new group of companies is already starting to benefit.

These are firms hiding in plain sight, not typically thought of as AI companies.

So if you’ve felt like you missed the AI trade, it may not be too late. The next phase could look very different from the first, and it may offer a second chance.

In the guest essay below, Eric explains where this shift is happening and what it could mean for investors.

He also breaks it down in detail in a recent free presentation, including the specific companies he believes are best positioned as this next phase unfolds.

You can watch the full presentation here.

Hello, Reader.

It’s no surprise that It’s a Wonderful Life ranks No. 1 on the American Film Institute’s 100 YEARS…100 CHEERS list of the most inspiring films of all time.

Reluctant hero George Bailey recognizes the immense value of his existence with the help of his guardian angel. (Remember: Every time a bell rings, an angel gets its wings.)

It’s a timeless example of the power of a second chance.

Image

We investors appreciate a good do-over, too.

Luckily, missed opportunities often return in new forms, offering another chance to get it right.

The AI Boom brought immense wealth to early investors. Those who bought Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) shortly after the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in late 2022 would have achieved over 1,000% gains today.

For several years, Nvidia and the other so-called Magnificent Seven technology stocks have driven the entire U.S. stock market, their soaring valuations lifting index funds, pension portfolios, and retirement accounts across the country.

But the financial slack they once enjoyed is disappearing. It’s only a matter of time before they lose ground.

So, to those who watched others make huge gains in AI stocks and now think, “I missed it”…

You didn’t miss it. The real money hasn’t yet been made.

This is your second chance.

Of course, I’m no mystical guardian angel. But I’d like to update the cinematic turn-of-phrase: “When the market bell rings, a second chance it often brings.”

In today’s Smart Money, I’ll share why the heyday of the Mag 7 companies is decidedly over – and why the next opportunity may be forming in a very different part of the market.

What lies ahead is one of the most compelling second chances I’ve seen in my decades-long career.

No Hollywood magic necessary.

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A 25-year market pro just shared his 2026 “comeback plan.” His name is Jonathan Rose. He made $10.59 million in profits at a proprietary trading firm and taught his method to more than 100 professional traders. But if he had to start over with just $1,000 — how would he do it? Not AI stocks. Not crypto. Not an IPO. Instead, he’d use one simple strategy that’s shown 98% average gains across 117 consecutive trade recommendations. Now, he’s sharing how anyone can learn this approach for themselves in 7 daysor lessClick here to watch Jonathan’s free presentation.

Mag 7 AI Spending Hits New Highs

While the Mag 7 companies – Nvidia, Meta Platforms Inc. (META)Microsoft Inc. (MSFT)Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)Apple Inc. (APPL)Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), and Tesla Inc. (TSLA) – delivered the first wave of massive AI returns, they won’t deliver the second. Or the biggest.

They have staked their futures on a massive AI bet, evident from their latest earnings reports. But those bets rely on rosy assumptions about a future that may not come to pass.

All but Nvidia reported earnings over the last two weeks, and all declared an increase in AI spending and infrastructure.

Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure (capex) – the funds spent on big, long-term investment – forecast to roughly $125 billion–$145 billion, while Alphabet increased capex to $180 billion–$190 billion. Tesla plans to spend more than $25 billion on capex in 2026, a massive increase from the $9 billion it spent in 2025.

Microsoft said it is continuing heavy capital spending on data centers and AI infrastructure to keep up with demand; and Apple reported that its research and development spending reached a record high as it continues investing in AI features and Apple Intelligence. (The company is still spending far less on AI infrastructure than Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, or Amazon.)

Last year alone, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet collectively poured nearly $300 billion into capital expenditure. That figure will more than double this year to an eye-watering $635 billion.

As the hyperscalers deplete their cash reserves to build AI infrastructure, they are tapping the credit markets for additional financing. Annual issuance of debt tied to AI and data centers surged from $166 billion in 2023 to $625 billion last year.

Of course, the chief executives of Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet are not novices. They understand that they may be overinvesting.

As Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai has argued, “The risk of underinvesting is dramatically greater than the risk of overinvesting.” Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has made essentially the same case.

This is the logic of what economists call a “prisoner’s dilemma.” Each individual player acts rationally given their own circumstances, but the collective result is that everyone overinvests simultaneously, competition destroys returns, and the industry as a whole burns the very value it set out to create.

OpenAI, the prominent poster child of the AI boom, also offers a fascinating case study in the arithmetic of ambition. The company lost approximately $8 billion last year on revenues of just $12 billion. This year will be worse, and 2027 worse still. OpenAI expects its losses to double to $17 billion in 2026 and double again to $35 billion in 2027.

To be clear, the leading technology companies are not “zeros.” They generate robust revenues, profits, and cash flows from their existing businesses. Furthermore, AI may well prove as transformative as its most enthusiastic cheerleaders claim.

But AI is becoming a “cost center” rather than a powerful growth driver. That means that even if revenues keep growing, margins may compress, expectations reset, and valuation multiples shrink.

The question is not whether AI will change the world – it certainly will – but how successfully the leading AI companies will capitalize on that change.

The Second Chance Ahead

Too often, investors assume that the builders of a new technology will automatically capture huge returns from that technology. But that’s rarely the case.

The Magnificent Seven may remain magnificent for some time yet. But the foundations beneath them are far less solid than the mythology suggests – and the distance from the current altitude to the ground below is very, very far.

That’s why I’ve been recommending that investors steer clear of the priciest, diciest AI names and pivot toward the vast universe of stocks that offer a more compelling risk-reward profile.

This is where the second chance lies.

The initial phase of the AI Boom brought gains to those that pioneered the technological revolution – the very companies now burning through cash. Be careful; don’t get too close to the flames.

The next chance won’t come from these aged “moneymakers.” The likes of the Mag 7 are headed for retirement.

Instead, it will come from the companies using the technology that they have built.

These are firms hiding in plain sight, not typically thought of as AI companies. And yet, they are becoming AI companies quickly, effectively, and without nosebleed valuations. This means self-directed investors can get in at ordinary, or even low, valuations for companies that can grow rapidly in the future.

It’s like getting in on Nvidia all of those years ago.

I detail these “second chance companies” in my latest presentation. This is when the real money will be made.

And it’s an opportunity I don’t want you to miss out on.

Click here to watch my free, special broadcast.

Regards,

Eric Fry's signature

Eric Fry
Editor, The Speculator

P.S. Eric has been ahead of some of the biggest macro and tech trends of the past decade — and this may be one of his most important calls yet. His latest presentation lays out exactly why the AI story is shifting… and which under-the-radar companies could benefit most. If you’ve been waiting for a smarter entry point into AI, this is well worth your time.

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The Backlash to “Train Your Replacement” Begins

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The cold math behind Oracle’s mass layoffs… the Prisoner’s Dilemma, live and in person… Luke Lango describes the backlash that could end the AI bull run… Eric Fry with where the smart money goes now… make money before 2028

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The layoff itself wasn’t all that noteworthy…

It was what this employee – “Jill” – had been doing in the months leading up to her dismissal.

Oracle (ORCL) had asked her, and others on her team, to document their workflows.

Not long after completing that work – after Oracle had secured a detailed, step-by-step roadmap for training its AI how to do her job – the company let her go.

Here she is from her recent interview with Time:

It really makes you feel used and abused. 

They’re having you do something, it’s recorded, and then they’re going to replace you with whatever you just built.

Jill (a pseudonym she used for fear of retaliation) is one of roughly 30,000 workers Oracle just laid off as the company pivots aggressively toward AI – both internally and in the booming business of building AI data centers.

Meanwhile, Oracle’s chairman and CTO, Larry Ellison, briefly became the richest man in the world last fall after his company reported its best growth quarter in 15 years. That operational outperformance looks poised to continue, thanks in part to cost savings coming from the recent spate of firings.

This is the Prisoner’s Dilemma, playing out in real time

Regular Digest readers will recognize exactly what just happened.

In our April 6 Digest, I dove into the Prisoner’s Dilemma created by AI, laying out five versions of the same structural trap it has introduced across our economy.

Here’s what I wrote about the worker’s dilemma specifically:

Your boss has made it clear: use AI. Increase your productivity. Stay competitive.

So, you do. You adopt every tool available, automate the repetitive work, produce more output in less time. You become more valuable to your employer in the short term.

But here’s what you’re also doing: mapping your own job in granular detail so that a future, more intelligent version of AI can replace you.

Every workflow you automate, every task you hand to a model, every process you optimize – you’re demonstrating exactly what your role consists of and how it can be done without you.

The worker who doesn’t incorporate AI loses their job first. The worker who embraces AI loses it last. But the worker who uses AI accelerates the transition toward a robotic workforce for all other human workers coming after him.

That was written three weeks before Oracle’s “train your AI replacement” story broke nationally.

But Time’s story, published this past Friday, found that Oracle ran a deliberate data-collection program – asking employees to document their workflows, their knowledge, their institutional expertise – and then used the results to train the systems that made those employees redundant.

Here’s Time:

[Another fired employee] was also instructed to train AI systems on her work. 

While she was scared about the outcome of this training, she felt trapped in a catch-22.

“We were training AI to replace us, but the AI is the only way we can get through our workload,” she says. 

“You’re behind on all your deadlines, and your hand is forced.”

That is the exact Prisoner’s Dilemma I flagged. The rational choice – comply or fall behind – produces an outcome no individual worker chose.

Oracle isn’t alone…

In early spring, just weeks after Mark Zuckerberg purchased a $170 million compound on Miami’s “Billionaire Bunker” island, Meta (META) announced 8,000 layoffs – while simultaneously deploying software to log the keystrokes and screen activity of its U.S. employees to build AI agents designed to automate their work.

It’s hard to imagine that more Meta layoffs aren’t out on the horizon.

Recommended Link

Jonathan Rose: “If I lost EVERYTHING and started over with $1,000, here’s how I’d make it all back…”

A 25-year market pro just shared his 2026 “comeback plan.” His name is Jonathan Rose. He made $10.59 million in profits at a proprietary trading firm and taught his method to more than 100 professional traders. But if he had to start over with just $1,000 — how would he do it? Not AI stocks. Not crypto. Not an IPO. Instead, he’d use one simple strategy that’s shown 98% average gains across 117 consecutive trade recommendations. Now, he’s sharing how anyone can learn this approach for themselves in 7 daysor lessClick here to watch Jonathan’s free presentation.

The backlash has begun…

The Oracle and Meta stories aren’t isolated. They’re just the most visible data points in a pattern that is building toward something politically significant.

About two weeks ago, Futurismcataloged some of the recent examples of public anger directed at AI, calling it “a powder keg.”

Here are a few stories cited from the article:

  • A man allegedly lobbed a Molotov cocktail at OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s house.
  • An Indianapolis city councilman reported that someone fired a dozen bullets at his home, leaving a handwritten note reading “No Data Centers.”
  • In Missouri, voters fired half their city council over a recently approved $6 billion data center deal.
  • Across rural America, small towns are fighting back against data centers that strain local power grids and water supplies.
image

This is no longer just snarky Twitter grumbling.

It’s a physical, political expression of the same resentment felt by former Big Tech employees who just trained their AI replacements.

The AI industry is aware of this backlash and appears to be trying to soothe some of the frustration

For example, OpenAI recently argued in an industrial policy paper that we could shift the tax burden from human labor to capital and move to a four-day workweek.

Microsoft’s (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella has said that companies must invest in people as aggressively as they invest in technology, suggesting that the “efficiency dividend” should fund widespread apprenticeships.

And Anthropic has advocated for $10,000 subsidies per trainee to incentivize companies to re-train rather than fire workers (funded by you, the taxpayer – not Anthropic).

Despite such posturing, reports find that the public is increasingly skeptical about AI.

Last fall, Pew Research put some numbers on this:

Americans remain far more concerned (50%) than excited (10%) about the increased use of AI in daily life. Concern is up from 37% in 2021.

More Americans, on balance, think AI will make people worse than better at key human abilities, such as thinking creatively or forming meaningful relationships with other people.

Two weeks ago, the title of an article from The New Republic summed it up best:

The AI Industry is Discovering That the Public Hates It

Our technology expert Luke Lango sees this building into a market-moving event

This is where the story becomes directly relevant to your portfolio…

Luke – editor of Innovation Investor – has been tracking this backlash, and he believes it’s carrying us toward one outcome…

The eventual end of the AI bull market.

To be clear, we’re not talking tomorrow, or even next year. But Luke believes it’s coming – and on a specific and identifiable timeline.

Here he is explaining:

The force that will derail the AI Boom is not a technological failure, demand collapse, or even a recession.

It is politics — specifically, a populist backlash against AI that is already building momentum, fueled by the growing economic pain hitting American households right now. 

And it’s on a trajectory to reach full force right around the 2028 presidential election cycle.

Luke’s case is built on three compounding pressure points: rising energy costs from data center construction that are landing directly on residential electricity bills… accelerating AI-attributed layoffs across major employers… and widening wealth inequality.

His projection is that by 2027, anti-AI messaging will become a dominant political narrative.

From Luke:

Any politician who runs on “you should be in charge of this technology, not them” will already have majority support before they’ve said another word. 

And a cross-the-aisle convergence makes this doubly dangerous for the AI industry: Republicans and Democrats are now equally concerned about AI in daily life.

This is a bipartisan pressure cooker.

Luke expects that AI-curbing legislation will arrive in 2029 – we’re talking AI taxes, restrictions on data center construction, and labor displacement provisions.

But here’s what’s critical for us to recognize today…

The market will begin pricing this risk before the bills are even introduced.

Remember, the markets always look out into the future, trying to price in today what’s coming tomorrow.

Here’s Luke with the practical takeaway for your portfolio:

That is the scenario that ends the AI Boom. And it is not a remote tail risk.

Make your money now. 

The window for transformational wealth creation in this AI cycle is the next two to three years.

So, what’s the portfolio action step today?

Let’s begin with what it’s not…

Buy anything claiming it’s an AI stock.

Luke’s warning cuts both ways. The window to profit is open – but so is the trap door if you get into the wrong AI play (see the recent SaaSmageddon blowup).

As we’ve been covering in recent Digests, our global macro expert Eric Fry has been carefully mapping out this distinction.

His take is that the AI story is shifting in a way that will catch millions of portfolios flat-footed – and the mistakes investors make in the next 12 months could impact their portfolios for years to come.

Here he is to explain:

Cisco dropped 80% after the dot-com bubble burst and only recently surpassed its 2000 peak 25 years later. 

Investors who bought near the 2000 peak and held on would have seen their significant gains disappear, resulting in over a decade of waiting just to break even.

Given the current landscape of the AI market, I believe today’s AI Builders will face similar disadvantages.

Eric ties the internet buildout to today’s AI buildout, concluding that the hyperscalers are pouring hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, and borrowing heavily to do it. But this will turn AI into a cost center for them rather than a growth engine.

So, watch for margin compression…followed by valuation compression.

Eric is urging investors to find safer opportunities elsewhere

Specifically, the companies applying AI rather than building it.

These are businesses embedding autonomous intelligence into their existing operations – improving margins, reducing headcount costs, expanding capacity – without nosebleed valuations and without a monster infrastructure bet riding on uncertain returns.

He adds a specific catalyst worth noting: on May 19, Alphabet (GOOGL) is expected to announce a radical new autonomous AI platform to 1.8 billion users.

Eric believes that announcement will force the market to finally reckon with how quickly the AI story is shifting – and which companies are actually positioned for what comes next.

He’s laid out his full thinking, including the specific names he’s watching, in a free broadcast you can watch right here.

If Luke’s two-to-three-year window is the timeline, and the leadership rotation Eric is describing is already underway, getting into the right names now is critical – and his broadcast is a good place to figure out if you’re in those right names.

Just a heads-up – we’ll be taking down Eric’s presentation tomorrow, so this is last call.

Wrapping up…

These aren’t disconnected stories – they’re the same story at different stages.

Luke’s advice is to make your money now. Eric’s advice is to make sure you’re making it in the right places. His free broadcast is where those two ideas meet.

We’ll keep you updated.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg

(Disclaimer: I own MSFT and GOOGL)

InvestorPlace

In 2012, I recommended Tesla (up 16,724% since)

In 2012, I Recommended Tesla (Up 16,724% Since) 

Bryan Bottarelli, Co-Founder, Monument Traders Alliance 

Bryan Bottarelli

Dear Reader,

Bryan Bottarelli here.

If you don’t know me, I’ve been recommending stocks to readers for decades.

They listen because my calls have made me a millionaire… and quite often led to huge wins for them as well.

Back in 2012, I made one of my best calls ever.

Here’s what I wrote…

“No other company (aside from Apple) is redefining their current market sector quite like TSLA… Let’s put away some shares in long-term storage.”

That was when it was trading for less than $2.50, split adjusted.

Today it’s up 16,000%.

Enough to turn a $10,000 investment into $1.6 million.

But here’s the thing…

Those gains for anyone who stayed in long term could look like chump change compared to what’s coming next…

See, behind the scenes… Elon’s been working on a massive new project.

He says it will be bigger than anything he’s ever done – WAY bigger.

And like I did with Tesla back in 2012… I believe him.

You should too.

Click here to see why… and discover how to get positioned now.

Yours in smart speculation,Bryan Bottarelli Signature

Bryan Bottarelli, Co-Founder
Monument Traders Alliance

P.S. Don’t put this off – the big reveal could occur as soon as June 15,according to my research.

Once that happens, the under-the-radar profit opportunities I detail here could disappear.Monument Traders Alliance

Monument Traders Alliance, LLC

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Your father’s savings lost half their value after 1971. Here’s what he didn’t know.

On Sunday evening, August 15, 1971, Richard Nixon interrupted regular television programming.

He spoke for 15 minutes.

By the time he finished, the gold standard was over. The dollar was no longer backed by anything except the government’s word. And every dollar in every American’s savings account had quietly changed — not in number, but in what it actually meant.

Nixon didn’t ask Congress. He didn’t hold a debate. He used a single executive authority and by Monday morning the monetary world had shifted.

The people who saw it coming had already moved. Gold tripled in three years. Over the next decade it went up twenty times.

The people who didn’t understand what was happening watched their savings quietly lose value for a decade. They never recovered it.

Here’s what the financial press isn’t saying clearly:

Trump has that same executive authority today.And his own advisors are now openly saying the reversal of what Nixon did is on the table.

If he acts, it moves fast. There are two ways this plays out. Both of them move gold in the same direction.

We put together a free briefing on exactly what Nixon did, why Trump is the first president positioned to reverse it, and the one move Americans can make right now to be on the right side of what comes next.

Free. 30 seconds to request.

Nixon didn’t warn anyone before that Sunday nightbroadcast.

Trump’s advisors are warning you right now.

GET THE FREE GUIDE

GET THE FREE GUIDE






More Reading from MarketBeat Media

NerdWallet’s Growth Story Looks Strong—But Can It Last?

Written by Peter Frank. Date Posted: 4/30/2026. 

NerdWallet logo displayed over a blurred office desk with glasses, a notebook, and a pen.

Key Points

  • NerdWallet’s diversification helped offset weakness in credit cards and small-business products.
  • Rising marketing costs and dependence on search traffic are pressuring margins and increasing risk.
  • Growth in loans and banking is strong, but may not hold if the credit cycle weakens.
  • Special ReportElon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000

Diversification is powering NerdWallet (NASDAQ: NRDS). The question for investors is whether the economy, consumers, and their internet habits will cooperate.

NerdWallet began as a credit card comparison tool. Today the business spans credit cards, personal loans, mortgages, banking, insurance, small-business products, investing, and student loans.

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That broader mix proved useful last year. After a sharp drop in credit card revenue in the year’s final quarter, gains in personal loans, banking, and auto insurance helped offset the decline.

Whether that momentum can be sustained is what investors are watching.

A Vertical Shift Brought a Strong Performance

On the surface, NerdWallet had an impressive 2025. The company reported revenue of $836.6 million, up 22% from $687.6 million in 2024. Full-year GAAP net income rose 60% to $48.7 million. Non-GAAP operating income doubled to $96 million, and adjusted EBITDA reached $145 million, up 35%.

Operating cash flow nearly doubled to $131.6 million, and the company finished 2025 with $98.3 million in cash and equivalents — roughly 50% more than a year earlier — with relatively little debt.

Fourth-quarter results were also strong. The company delivered a record $225.4 million in revenue, up 23% year over year, and earnings per share of $0.19, both above analysts’ estimates.

Traffic Dependency Remains a Core Risk

Despite the strong results, NerdWallet’s stock has been volatile and mostly lower in recent months. Much of the market’s skepticism is justified: the company’s model still depends heavily on attracting consumers searching for financial products.

When Google changes its algorithm — as it has in recent years — revenue in some NerdWallet categories can fall quickly. The company has been diversifying away from pure SEO reliance, but that strategy has increased spending on paid marketing to acquire customers. Maintaining or increasing those expenses could continue to pressure margins.

Marketing Costs Rise as Organic Traffic Falls

The company’s recent results illustrate both the benefits and the costs of its strategy. GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $14 million, down 64% from a year earlier, weighed down by a rise in sales and marketing expenses.

That increase reflects a deliberate shift toward performance marketing and other paid channels. As consumers migrate to AI-driven search results, organic Google traffic has declined, weakening referrals for NerdWallet’s credit card vertical and others.

Credit card revenue fell 24% in the fourth quarter, and small- to medium-sized business products declined about 12%. To counter the loss of organic traffic, the company increased performance marketing spending by 40% last year to $417 million.

Where diversification helped was in other verticals. Loans revenue surged 141% year over year to $42.3 million in the fourth quarter. Banking-product revenue rose 57% to $52.9 million, and insurance — the company’s largest revenue generator — increased 13% to $81.2 million.

Diversification Helps But Adds New Risks

That shift worked in 2025, but leaning on loans as a growth driver introduces a different risk: sensitivity to the credit cycle. Loan-originating businesses perform well when consumers borrow freely and lenders compete for customers; they can cool quickly if the economy slows, credit standards tighten, or interest rates rise.

Loans, banking, and insurance are also highly competitive within the financial services sector. NerdWallet faces bank-owned comparison sites and deep-pocketed rivals such as Credit Karma, owned by Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU). Competing effectively requires ongoing product and marketing investment, which can limit profitability unless revenue growth keeps pace.

Management’s guidance for 2026 reflects that caution. For the first quarter, NerdWallet expects revenue of $224–$232 million and adjusted EBITDA of $40–$44 million, compared with $225.4 million in revenue and $36.7 million in adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter.

For the full year, the company is targeting GAAP operating income of $72–$89 million and adjusted EBITDA of $143–$158 million, roughly maintaining 2025 profitability levels.

Offsetting some concerns, NerdWallet — which does not pay a dividend — has expanded its share repurchase authorization twice since late last year, increasing the cap from $75 million to $225 million.

Outlook Shows Cautious Expectations

Those adjustments, risks, and uncertainties have left analysts cautious. The eight analysts covering the company collectively carry a Hold rating.

Ratings break down as four Buys, three Holds, and one Sell. The average 12-month target price is $15 per share — roughly 40% upside but only modestly above where the stock started the year (see chart).

NerdWallet isn’t a buy-and-forget stock. Credit-cycle exposure, search traffic dependency, and intense competition are real risks, and the shares can sell off even on otherwise good results if investors focus on specific line items. How much AI continues to pressure search traffic, how the economy and consumers behave through the next cycle, and whether NerdWallet’s diversification is broad enough — those will be the key questions for investors in the year ahead.


More Reading from MarketBeat Media

Amazon Takes a Bite Out of Hims: What Its GLP-1 Entrance Means

Written by Leo Miller. Date Posted: 4/28/2026. 

Hims logo overlaid on a pink background with an apple, measuring tape, and assorted supplement capsules.

Key Points

  • After Hims reached a key deal with Novo Nordisk, Amazon rained on the company’s parade.
  • Amazon is launching its own weight management platform, offering popular GLP-1s.
  • Amazon’s cost and delivery advantages put Hims in a difficult competitive position.
  • Special ReportElon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000

GLP-1 seller Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS) has experienced notable volatility in its stock price recently. Despite a 41% single-day surge in early March after Hims and Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO), the maker of Wegovy, announced a new collaboration, HIMS remains down nearly 10% in 2026.

Under the agreement, Novo will allow Hims to sell branded versions of its Ozempic and Wegovy injectables, as well as the Wegovy pill. Novo also dropped its lawsuit against Hims. With Novo’s revenues under pressure, Hims will serve as a sales channel for Novo products in the U.S.

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But Hims now faces competition from one of the largest consumer companies in the world: Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN). In mid-April, Amazon added a weight management offering to its One Medical platform, a move that sent HIMS shares down about 4%. Here’s how Amazon is positioning itself and what it could mean for Hims going forward.

Amazon Enters GLP-1 Game Through One Medical

Amazon says the Wegovy pill and Foundayo, Eli Lilly and Company’s (NYSE: LLY) recently approved oral GLP-1 (clinical name orforglipron), will be available through One Medical. Cash-pay prices for the oral drugs start as low as $149 per month, which is broadly in line with Hims’ pricing.

Amazon will also offer injectables for Wegovy and Zepbound, Lilly’s popular weight-loss drug. Cash-pay prices for injectables start as low as $299 per month. While Zepbound pricing matches Hims, Hims currently lists Wegovy injectables starting at $199.

Both Hims and One Medical require a membership fee. On this front, Amazon has a clear advantage: Amazon Prime members can add a One Medical membership for just $9 a month or $99 per year. By comparison, Hims charges $39 for the first month and $149 per year thereafter.

Amazon is also offering same-day GLP-1 delivery to nearly 3,000 cities and plans to expand to 4,500 cities by the end of 2026. Hims notes delivery times of “as early as two days to a week.”

Amazon’s Lower Cost, Faster Delivery: A Problem for Hims

Even if Amazon isn’t explicitly trying to undercut Hims on drug pricing, its lower membership fee and faster delivery create a compelling value proposition for consumers. For example, an injectable Wegovy prescription through One Medical would cost roughly $3,700 per year before taxes for Amazon Prime members; the same prescription through Hims would total above $4,000. For injectable Zepbound, the difference is starker — near $3,700 annually on One Medical versus more than $5,000 at Hims.

These price and delivery differences pose a meaningful competitive challenge. Capital One estimates roughly 180.1 million Amazon Prime members in the U.S., so for a large share of the population it may not make economic sense to choose Hims over One Medical. An Amazon Prime membership costs about $139 per year, meaning a consumer could pay less overall by bundling Prime with a One Medical membership than by subscribing directly to Hims.

That said, whether consumers will actually switch is uncertain. Hims has built a sizable customer base of over 2.5 million subscribers and remains a fast-growing business. Sales reached $2.35 billion in 2025, up 59% year over year, although analysts expect growth to moderate to about 16% in 2026.

Hims is no stranger to competition — several similar companies have entered the market in recent years — but none match the scale and reach that Amazon brings.

Hims Faces Greater Competition, Mixed Analyst Support

It will likely take several quarters to see whether Amazon’s entry materially hurts Hims’ growth. Hims’ next earnings report will cover Q1 2026, before One Medical’s GLP-1 launch. Given Amazon’s position as one of the most powerful consumer companies globally, the long-term risks to Hims are real.

Analysts remain divided on Hims stock. MarketBeat currently tracks 13 Hold ratings, four Buys, and one Sell.

The MarketBeat consensus price target near $32.50 implies roughly 10% upside. However, targets updated after the company’s February earnings report are less optimistic, averaging about $26.30 — a level that implies roughly 10% downside.

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A Property Tax Rebellion Is Emerging in America

Read Online  |  May 5, 2026  |  E-Paper  | 🎧 Listen

Every language is a temple, in which the soul of those who speak it is enshrined.

— Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr.

Ivan Pentchoukov
National Editor

Good morning. It’s Tuesday. Here are today’s top stories:

  • A civic rebellion against property taxes is emerging in the United States. Public K–12 school spending now exceeds $1 trillion annually, and citizen groups say they’ve had enough.
  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law a new congressional map that could add four districts favorable for Republicans ahead of a high-stakes midterm election this year.
  • A special election for the Michigan state senate today will decide control of the state’s upper legislative chamber.
  • Iran carried out strikes on an Emirati oil port amid a U.S. operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on May 4, testing the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump stopped short of saying that the pact has been violated.
  • 🍵 Health: Six powerful benefits of bodyweight training that will make you love it.

A poster on a bookcase inside Ron Shumate’s home in Springfield Township, Ohio, on April 21, 2026. (Glenn Hartong for The Epoch Times)

A Property Tax Rebellion Is Emerging in America

MIDDLEBURG HEIGHTS, Ohio—At a petition table inside a Cleveland area gun show on a drizzly Saturday afternoon, citizens talk of an American Dream derailed.

There’s the elderly couple who paid off their mortgage decades ago but can’t afford the property taxes on their home. Their local government, theoretically, can seize the property and auction it off to someone else if the annual bills remain unpaid.

Then there’s the recent retiree who took a part-time job at Lowe’s to pay property taxes on his rental property and avoid raising his tenants’ rent.  

Add empty nesters who can’t downsize to smaller houses because interest rates are too high,  farmers describing an impossible situation, and recent college graduates groaning about moving further away from home to an affordable place.

Show goers, guns and ammo in hand, pause at Beth Blackmarr’s table on their way out and share with her those concerns. If 413,000 residents throughout the Buckeye State sign a petition before July 1, a public vote to eliminate local property taxes will appear on the November ballot.

If the signature count falls short, whatever is collected can be applied the following year, or however long it takes, said Blackmarr, media coordinator and a main volunteer for the 3,000-plus member Citizens for Property Tax Reform group.

“We are really hurting in Ohio,” she told The Epoch Times. “People never thought they’d be in this situation.”

Ohio isn’t alone. Forty-six states and the District of Columbia already have limits on annual local property tax levy increases, and leaders in Florida and Texas are pursuing additional legislation to limit government “flexibility” in how it raises revenues, according to a September report from McKinsey and Co., a global management consulting firm whose clients include state and local governments.

Schools, already strapped for cash, hang in the balance. School districts struggle with declining student enrollment, unfunded mandates, state and federal aid loss largely due to skyrocketing Medicaid costs, and spiking employee health insurance costs.

On the local level, mayors and town boards face similar challenges as they try to continue providing public safety, utilities, and infrastructure services.

Fed-up homeowners say it’s high time to try another way to pay their community’s civil servants, perhaps through higher sales tax or state income tax rates, along with slashing administrative bloat in schools and city halls.


“Let the state find a way where 100 percent of the population pays for education,” Ron Shumate, one of Blackmarr’s volunteers from suburban Cincinnati, told The Epoch Times. “They give profit-making businesses a break, but not us.” (More)Sponsored by NativePath

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Health experts say many older adults unknowingly lack a key mineral needed for hydration, muscle function, and energy. A simple “salty drink” is gaining attention for supporting daily balance – without sugar or artificial ingredients. See the 7 reasons doctors are talking about it.Read Now ➜

POLITICS

  • President Donald Trump on May 4 touted his economic policies, from tax cuts and tariffs to deregulation, at a White House event for small-business owners from across the country. He said the United States is thrivingdespite conflict in the Middle East.
  • The federal government is taking steps to tackle what it described as the overprescribing of antidepressants and other psychiatric drugs, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said at an event focused on “mental health and overmedicalization.”
  • The U.S. Supreme Court took the unusual step of making its recent ruling to limit the use of race in redistricting effective ahead of the usual 32-day waiting period.
  • The U.S. Department of Justice is suing Minnesota over the state’s climate lawsuit against major energy companies.
  • Federal law enforcement should target drug cartels and their supply lines, and Americans should work to create a drug-free nation, the office that is tasked with fighting drug addiction said in its updated strategy. “We will take the fight to the enemy with a relentless offense,” Sara Carter, director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, said in a letter accompanying the nearly 200-page strategy document. “The era of containment has failed.”

LATEST NEWS

  • Video game retailer GameStop has proposed buying eBay in a $55.5 billion cash-and-stock deal.
  • A Washington-based human rights organization today filed a federal complaint against the National Education Association, alleging that the teachers union discriminated against its Jewish members and promoted a hostile environment throughout K–12 public schools.
  • Officials from the Chinese consulate in Vancouver met with a city hall official in April to pressure the city not to allow Shen Yun to perform at the Queen Elizabeth Theatre, which is owned by the City of Vancouver.
  • Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is recovering from pneumonia but is still hospitalized in “critical but stable condition,” his spokesperson said Monday.

OPINION

  • Amid Changing Political Winds, Latin America Is at a Turning Point—by Conrad Black (Read)
  • What Killed Spirit Airlines—by Jeffrey A. Tucker (Read)
  • Beijing Cannot and Will Not Take the IMF’s Sage Advice—by Milton Ezrati (Read)

A farmer rides a donkey past bales of wheat hay and palm trees in the village of Maraziq, about 30 kilometers south of Giza in Egypt, on May 4, 2026. (Khaled Desouki / AFP via Getty Images)

📸 Day in Photos: Military Drills, 2026 Met Gala, and Meat Industry Investigation (Look)

🎙️ Podcast: Shadow fleet, Chinese teapots, U.S. blockade, sanction evasions, and a renewed fear of the Chinese regime, all ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in mid-May. China Watch connects all the dots for you. (Listen)

🍿 Film Review: How to Make a Killing (Read)


🎵 Music: Tchaikovsky’s Fourth Symphony explores fates, struggle, and resilience. (Read & Listen)

ARTS & CULTURE

Dancer Xiuxian Yin (R) accepts a proclamation from the city of San Marcos, Calif., on behalf of Shen Yun Performing Arts, from Councilmember Danielle LeBlang. (NTD Television)

Pulling Back the Curtain on the CCP’s Most Insidious Crimes 

Yin Xiuxian’s father was detained in a labor camp at the time Yin was born—not because he had committed a crime, but because he refused to give up his faith in Falun Dafa while living in communist China.

Three days after Yin’s birth, police barged into their home and threatened to also arrest his mother, Zhang Wanxia, if she didn’t renounce her faith. Before Yin turned 2, they followed through—a group of police raided the house and dragged the mother away from her crying son to illegally detain her. She was kept at a brainwashing center for more than six months.

Later, in September 2003, Zhang was illegally sentenced to two years of forced labor. Because she refused to renounce her faith, her sentence was extended by one month beyond her initial term. At the labor camp, she suffered brutal persecution, including 15 days of sleep deprivation and prolonged torture, including being hung up by handcuffs.

Yin’s childhood was marked by family separation. He stayed with his paternal grandparents and remembered they were living under constant fear and anxiety due to the Chinese authorities’ persistent harassment. They never knew whether his parents might return home that day or when the next home raid might occur.

Yin told The Epoch Times that what happened on his seventh birthday epitomizes what his childhood was like. Back then, he was still too young to understand why his family was persecuted by Chinese authorities. 


That morning, Yin excitedly asked his father if he could please buy him a birthday cake—a big one if possible. His father agreed, and that evening Yin waited for his father to come home from work. (More)

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Tuesday’s Bonus Story

Sherwin-Williams: The Boring Beauty Play on Housing Recovery

Submitted by Chris Markoch. Article Published: 5/1/2026. 

Sherwin-Williams logo displayed on a light blue wall alongside paint brushes and a roller tray.

Key Points

  • Sherwin-Williams beat Q1 earnings expectations but issued cautious guidance due to a weak housing market.
  • Elevated valuation and soft near-term demand could limit upside despite strong fundamentals.
  • SHW remains a long-term compounder, especially if lower mortgage rates revive housing activity.
  • Special ReportElon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”

Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW) fell about 3.5% the day it delivered its Q1 2026 earnings report. At a time when investors are looking beyond headline numbers, the company’s guidance was effectively flat.

Sherwin-Williams pointed to elevated mortgage rates — which are weighing on the housing market — as a reason to expect softer do-it-yourself (DIY) consumer demand. The weakness isn’t limited to new construction: the company said existing homeowners are cutting back on remodeling projects. Perhaps more troubling for investors, management sees no clear signs of a near-term reversal.

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Adding to concerns are higher producer costs tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The company faces increased expenses for raw materials, energy inputs and transportation, and plans selective price increases to offset some of that pressure. How effective those hikes will be amid weakening demand remains uncertain.

Solid Earnings Show Resilience in a Weak Housing Market

The April 28 report was solid. Sherwin-Williams posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.35, beating expectations of $2.28 and rising about 4% year over year. The company also reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance, with a midpoint forecast of $11.70; adjusted EPS for full-year 2025 was $11.45.

Revenue of $5.67 billion topped estimates of $5.56 billion and was 6.7% higher than the $5.31 billion reported in Q1 2025. Management guided to low- to mid-single-digit revenue growth for the full year.

Overall, the results suggest Sherwin-Williams is leveraging its channel relationships and leading brands to navigate the current business cycle.

Valuation Concerns May Limit Near-Term Upside

One issue investors must weigh is valuation. Analysts trimmed price targets ahead of the report, and the consensus price target of $375.33 as of April 30 sits roughly 15% below the stock price. The company also trades at a P/E ratio near 31x, a premium to the S&P 500 (around 27x) and the Specialty Chemicals sector (around 23x).

That said, Sherwin-Williams has a healthy balance sheet. Operating cash flow of $139.1 million marked a substantial improvement from the -$61.1 million reported in Q1 2025, supporting the view that SHW has the financial discipline to weather a down cycle.

Dividend Growth and Long-Term Compounding Remain Key

Before the earnings report, Sherwin-Williams announced a quarterly dividend of $0.80 per share, payable June 8 to shareholders of record on May 22.The company is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 48 consecutive years — two years shy of Dividend King status.

Investors should keep a long-term perspective. Prior to the post-earnings dip, SHW had delivered a total return of just over 30% over the past five years, reflecting housing-market softness. Over 10 years and longer, total returns illustrate the company’s role as a compounder of both growth and value in a portfolio.

These problems are material and could justify a lower valuation; Sherwin-Williams’ best course is to control the controllables.

In the near term that means delivering slow, steady growth. Growth could accelerate if the housing market improves — for example, if mortgage rates fall following one or more cuts to the federal funds rate in 2026.


Tuesday’s Bonus Story

The Volatility Harvester That Thrives in Market Chaos

Submitted by Peter Frank. Article Published: 4/27/2026. 

Hands holding a smartphone displaying the Virtu Financial logo with stock charts in the background.

Key Points

  • Virtu Financial profits from market volatility by capturing trading spreads across massive daily volumes.
  • Earnings surged in 2025, but results remain highly dependent on unpredictable market conditions.
  • The stock price looks efficient, but volatility-driven earnings make long-term consistency uncertain.
  • Special ReportElon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”

For investors who welcome market swings, Virtu Financial (NYSE: VIRT) has many appealing features. Most companies shy away from volatility; Virtu is built to harvest it.

The company is one of the largest electronic market makers in the United States, sitting at the center of billions of stock, options and ETF trades every day.

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The result: a business that delivered one of its strongest years on record in 2025, with earnings that nearly doubled year over year. But Virtu’s results can be volatile, and with an unpredictable CBOE Volatility Index so far this year, forecasting 2026 is difficult.

The question for Virtu investors is whether last year’s performance — and a world prone to turbulence — will persist.

Virtu Profits From Every Trade

Market making sounds technical, but it relies on a simple idea: every trade needs a counterparty. Virtu often plays that role for brokerages such as Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD)Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW)Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF) and others. Its technology continuously buys and sells, capturing the small spread between bid and ask prices.

While Virtu earns money in calm markets, it benefits disproportionately from volatility. When markets are quiet and spreads tighten, earnings compress. When markets are turbulent and spreads widen, earnings expand. Last year was a clear example: overall trading volume, on- and off-exchange, rose by some measures nearly 45% year over year — the kind of activity that fueled Virtu’s results.

2025 Results Show Strong Momentum

The numbers illustrate the point. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Virtu reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.85, beating the analyst consensus of $1.12 by 65%. Revenue for the quarter reached $969.9 million, far surpassing the $513.5 million analysts expected. Elevated market volatility produced net trading income of $664.9 million that quarter and a net income margin of 28.9%.

The quarter capped a similarly strong year. Total revenue for the 12 months reached $3.6 billion, up 26.2%, with net trading income of $2.44 billion and a net income margin of 25.1%. Diluted EPS for 2025 was $5.14, up from $2.97 a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA rose to about $1.4 billion. By year-end, Virtu held $1.06 billion in cash, up from $872.5 million a year earlier, giving the company solid financial flexibility.

Shareholder Returns Remain Modest

Virtu is not a buy-and-forget stock for many investors. Although the stock is up around 45% this year and more than 25% over the past 12 months, its history shows notable swings.

Virtu pays 96 cents a share annually, roughly a 2% yield at recent prices. The payout ratio is under 20%, suggesting some capacity to increase the dividend. Combined with $135.3 million in share buybacks last year, total capital returned to shareholders is higher than the dividend alone. With a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) near 9x trailing earnings, the market appears skeptical about the sustainability of results rather than the quality of the underlying business.

Regulatory Risks Remain a Concern

There are clear risks. Capital markets could slow again, reducing trading activity and compressing Virtu’s earnings. More significantly, the firm’s activities attract regulatory scrutiny. High-frequency trading and market making raise questions about the security of “order flow” and customer data. Part of Virtu’s revenue depends on payment for order flow from brokerages, a practice regulators have examined for years.

In December, a broker-dealer subsidiary, Virtu Americas LLC, agreed to a $2.5 million civil penalty with the Securities and Exchange Commission to settle allegations it failed to maintain adequate safeguards around customers’ confidential trading information. While the penalty was small financially, it underscored a vulnerability that, if repeated, could lead to larger regulatory consequences and pressure on earnings.

Analyst Views Remain Divided

Given the earnings sensitivity to market conditions, analysts remain split on Virtu. Of the seven analysts covering the stock, four rate it Buy, two rate it Hold and one rates it Sell. The consensus is a Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $46 — slightly below the stock’s current trading level.

The division is understandable: when a company’s results depend heavily on overall market activity, forecasting future performance is challenging.

Built for Volatility, Priced for Patience

Virtu Financial is an unusual investment in the financial sector. It’s not a straightforward compounder for every investor, but it thrives when markets rattle portfolios. Its 2025 performance was impressive — earnings nearly doubled, cash rose above $1 billion, and the dividend remains well covered. With a P/E of about 9x trailing earnings and a sub-20% payout ratio, the valuation appears reasonable.

That said, Virtu’s earnings are inherently unpredictable. If market volatility subsides, earnings could moderate. When markets become chaotic, Virtu tends to perform well. Given today’s uncertain environment, the future of Virtu is anyone’s guess.

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