One of our most anticipated events of the year is back! Join us for the third annual Cal Poly Night with the San Francisco Giants at 7:15 p.m. Friday, July 24, at Oracle Park.
Cheer on the Giants as they take on the Los Angeles Angels and receive a limited-edition Cal Poly and Giants co-branded hat, included with every ticket purchased through our exclusive link.
This event sells out every year. Gather your crew and secure your tickets today at the link below. We look forward to seeing you at the ballpark in your new Cal Poly gear!
Cal Poly Mock Trial Prepares Students for the Real World
Cal Poly Mock Trial prepares students for the courtroom — and beyond — through hands-on competition rooted in the Cal Poly’s Learn by Doing philosophy.
The student-run, nationally ranked team brings together more than 70 students from a wide range of majors to build skills in public speaking, critical thinking and advocacy. Competing across the country, team members gain real-world experience that strengthens confidence and career readiness.
Read more about how
Cal Poly Mock Trial is shaping tomorrow’s leaders and how you can support their success.
Wine and Beer Garden Tickets are Selling Fast!
The Cal Poly Alumni Wine and Beer Garden returns Saturday, April 11, during Open House weekend. This year, the event moves to O’Neill Green, bringing alumni together for an afternoon of tastings, food and connection.
The celebration features wine, beer, cider and seltzer tastings for guests 21 and older, along with a taco bar, sweet treats and a passport experience with opportunities to win alumni swag. Attendees will receive a limited-edition commemorative glass available only at this year’s event.
Tickets are on sale now and expected to sell out — get yours today!
Explore the charms of Ottawa, Montreal and Québec City on a nine-day journey May 31 – June 9.
The trip blends history, culture, architecture and culinary experiences across three iconic Canadian cities, featuring guided tours, expert local insights and included meals and excursions.
Discover more about this alumni travel opportunity, and other trips, at the link below.
Recap of Cal Poly Founders Day with Alumni
On March 8, Cal Poly marked 125 years of Learn by Doing, as alumni gathered in cities across the United States to celebrate the milestone.
The events honored the university’s legacy and brought together generations of Mustangs in recognition of the impact of Learn by Doing.
Thank you to the alumni, volunteers, staff members, and Cal Poly Proud friends and family who made the weekend memorable.
View a photo recap at the link below.
Alumni Spotlight of the Month
Lisa Poncia (Political Science, ’98) and Loren Poncia (Dairy Science, ’98), owners and operators of Stemple Creek Ranch, have received the prestigious Leopold Conservation Award, a national honor recognizing excellence in regenerative agriculture. The award celebrates landowners who demonstrate outstanding stewardship and innovation in sustainable ranching practices. Congratulations on this remarkable accomplishment!
Stay up to date with alumni news on the alumni website — and submit your own update at the link below.
Cal Poly Night with the San Francisco Giants — Tickets On Sale Now!
One of our most anticipated events of the year is back! Join us for the third annual Cal Poly Night with the San Francisco Giants at 7:15 p.m. Friday, July 24, at Oracle Park.
Cheer on the Giants as they take on the Los Angeles Angels and receive a limited-edition Cal Poly and Giants co-branded hat, included with every ticket purchased through our exclusive link.
This event sells out every year. Gather your crew and secure your tickets today at the link below. We look forward to seeing you at the ballpark in your new Cal Poly gear!
Cal Poly Mock Trial Prepares Students for the Real World
Cal Poly Mock Trial prepares students for the courtroom — and beyond — through hands-on competition rooted in the Cal Poly’s Learn by Doing philosophy.
The student-run, nationally ranked team brings together more than 70 students from a wide range of majors to build skills in public speaking, critical thinking and advocacy. Competing across the country, team members gain real-world experience that strengthens confidence and career readiness.
Read more about how
Cal Poly Mock Trial is shaping tomorrow’s leaders and how you can support their success.
Wine and Beer Garden Tickets are Selling Fast!
The Cal Poly Alumni Wine and Beer Garden returns Saturday, April 11, during Open House weekend. This year, the event moves to O’Neill Green, bringing alumni together for an afternoon of tastings, food and connection.
The celebration features wine, beer, cider and seltzer tastings for guests 21 and older, along with a taco bar, sweet treats and a passport experience with opportunities to win alumni swag. Attendees will receive a limited-edition commemorative glass available only at this year’s event.
Tickets are on sale now and expected to sell out — get yours today!
Explore the charms of Ottawa, Montreal and Québec City on a nine-day journey May 31 – June 9.
The trip blends history, culture, architecture and culinary experiences across three iconic Canadian cities, featuring guided tours, expert local insights and included meals and excursions.
Discover more about this alumni travel opportunity, and other trips, at the link below.
Recap of Cal Poly Founders Day with Alumni
On March 8, Cal Poly marked 125 years of Learn by Doing, as alumni gathered in cities across the United States to celebrate the milestone.
The events honored the university’s legacy and brought together generations of Mustangs in recognition of the impact of Learn by Doing.
Thank you to the alumni, volunteers, staff members, and Cal Poly Proud friends and family who made the weekend memorable.
View a photo recap at the link below.
Alumni Spotlight of the Month
Lisa Poncia (Political Science, ’98) and Loren Poncia (Dairy Science, ’98), owners and operators of Stemple Creek Ranch, have received the prestigious Leopold Conservation Award, a national honor recognizing excellence in regenerative agriculture. The award celebrates landowners who demonstrate outstanding stewardship and innovation in sustainable ranching practices. Congratulations on this remarkable accomplishment!
Stay up to date with alumni news on the alumni website — and submit your own update at the link below.
Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999
A different day in the market… Weighing the consequences of war… The Fed is back in the picture… ‘Higher for longer’ is making a comeback… Has anyone seen Kevin Warsh?… Jensen Huang’s latest prediction… AI-proof fortresses…
Oil up, stocks up…
That’s a different picture from what we’ve seen for much of the past two weeks. Oil prices initially spiked as war broke out in Iran, while bond yields rose and stocks sold off.
But today, hundreds of oil tankers remain parked in the Persian Gulf, and oil prices rose around 3%. Yet bond yields actually fell some, and the major U.S. stock indexes were up across the board. Energy stocks led again, but most major S&P 500 Index sectors were higher.
If you’re optimistic, this is perhaps another “less bad” sign to note in the market… Some investors imagine progress toward some kind of resolution in the immediate conflict, as more top Iranian leaders have reportedly been killed over the past day in methodical attacks.
On the other hand…
Nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen in the Middle East next. That’s par for the course for millennia in some respects. But there’s no denying that right now, this war has led to the largest global oil-supply disruption in decades – or ever, by some standards.
Oil prices are up 40% from the start of the conflict… and could go higher.
Traffic has been virtually stopped in the critical and Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz for more than two weeks (except Iran’s own ships).
Yesterday, a handful of tankers trickled out thanks to apparent agreements with some Iranian leaders. But hundreds more remain anchored in or just outside the Persian Gulf, their cargo coming or going nowhere.
In Qatar, a facility handling around 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports shut down two weeks ago and will take weeks more to come back online.
And while everyone is focused on oil and gas, other commodities that transit through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz have seen their prices spike, too…
These include fertilizer, which is critical to global food supply and prices. At least a quarter of the global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. And prices are up as much as 40%, just like oil. Here’s Stacy Simunek, president of the Oklahoma Farm Bureau…
We cannot grow without it. There is absolutely no way you get around it… I’ve had many farmers tell me I can’t get it until April 1st, which starts putting them past the window of application time.
So already, the war in Iran is going to influence the economy in the weeks and months and years ahead. If it goes longer than the best-case scenarios laid out by the White House, trade and business will suffer even more.
And now it’s time to think about the Federal Reserve again, too…
The central bank began its latest two-day policy meeting today. The Fed and Chair Jerome Powell will share any decisions and have a post-meeting press conference tomorrow afternoon.
And while Powell’s time as chair is winding down, the stage is set for another potential Fed “pivot” – and maybe not the one you expect…
Last week, we covered rising commodities prices and associated inflation concerns. As we wrote…
Already, the Cleveland Fed – which runs an inflation “nowcast” – projects the CPI will climb back up to near 2.9% year over year for March’s reading.
And if the tensions with Iran send oil prices back to $100 per barrel in the next couple weeks, energy prices could drive inflation higher… which wouldn’t be good news for the broader economy.
One estimate from Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok is that $100 oil would boost headline inflation by 0.7 percentage points. That would put it closer to 4% than 3%, to say nothing of the Fed’s supposed 2% target.
With that said, let me alert you to a possible new shift in the market.
Investors are giving up hope for rate cuts…
And it sure looks like the war in Iran and its inflation consequences are the trigger…
We like to look at the federal-funds futures market for bond market expectations. And traders aren’t expecting the Fed to do much of anything significant tomorrow or at its meeting in late April, the last one before Powell’s term as chair is set to expire.
The short-term expectations are and have been for the Fed’s benchmark rate range to remain at 3.5% to 3.75% for the next two months.
But here’s where things start to get interesting…
By June, a new Fed chair is supposed to be in place. And it’s well known that President Donald Trump wants a new chair who’ll cut rates.
And yet, the market’s expectations for a rate cut in June have dwindled to barely 20%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. That’s down from 50% a month ago and even higher odds before that.
‘Higher for longer’ is making a comeback…
At the same time, expectations for rates to be “higher for longer” for the rest of the year have also grown. Fed-funds futures traders have 50% odds on rates holding steady in September, and they’re giving more than a 40% chance for them to do the same in October.
Another indicator from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta tells a similar and even more significant story.
The Atlanta Fed tracks bond-trading action to assess market probability. Its tracker now shows that the bond market has started to price in the probability of a rate hike by the Fed’s meeting in June rather than a rate cut.
As Ryan Detrick from financial-services firm Carson Group pointed out on the social platform X this morning…
Has anyone seen Kevin Warsh?…
Meanwhile, we haven’t heard a peep out of Trump’s nominee for Fed chair. Warsh’s confirmation faces at least some opposition in Congress, and he could throw a curveball into everything when he starts talking during that process.
Maybe he’ll double down on being the “low interest rate” person the president has promised, and inflation (and interest rate) expectations will take off even higher. Just yesterday, Trump pushed for an “emergency rate cut” in public comments while criticizing Powell again.
Or maybe Warsh’s confirmation will stall, and Powell or someone else already in the Fed with a “higher for longer” bent becomes chair in the interim.
Or maybe the war wraps up quickly… oil and other commodity prices “drop like a rock” – as Trump predicted today… and war-related inflation doesn’t show up all that much, making it easy to justify lower rates.
In any case, here’s what we want you to know and consider…
Even if the war ends and Warsh becomes the new Fed chair, a new inflation battle may just be beginning. It’s a risk, at the very least.
And it looks like the bond market is just starting to make bets on this regime change… and that stocks haven’t responded yet.
After all, this isn’t what “everybody” is expecting. It’s funny how the market so often works like this… with bond investors picking up on trends faster than the stock market.
If rates don’t fall, stocks won’t get the juice that many investors have counted on. And if rates rise, stocks can fall. Warren Buffett has described interest rates as “gravity” for asset prices. The unprepared could be in for a shock.
Nvidia’s ‘$1 trillion’ prediction…
On another note, AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) kicked off its annual developer conference yesterday. It’s what some call the “Woodstock of AI.”
And in his keynote address, CEO Jensen Huang unveiled the company’s latest offerings, including an AI chip and a new platform aimed at boosting AI in outer space (yes, really).
“Space computing, the final frontier, has arrived,” Huang said. “With our partners, we’re extending Nvidia beyond our planet – boldly taking intelligence where it’s never gone before.”
But what really grabbed headlines was Huang’s projection for the next few years on Earth…
Huang said that Nvidia now expects $1 trillion in orders for its Blackwell and Vera Rubin AI infrastructure offerings through 2027. That’s double the projection from last year’s conference.
And investors loved the news – at first… The stock spiked more than 2% yesterday afternoon following Huang’s reveal. Then it fell, ending lower than it was before Huang took the stage.
Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi explained why. While $1 trillion may seem huge, Wall Street was already expecting something like this over the next couple of years. From Sozzi…
For context, this compares to consensus data center revenue estimates for 2025-2027 of ~$989 billion.
Despite the buzzy $1 trillion headline, some of this was expected, and the revenue growth rate from 2026 into 2027 for Nvidia could flatten out.
Similarly, as we wrote yesterday, Nvidia shares have traded sideways since making a new high last October.
A limiting factor for growth: ‘flattening’ energy…
As we’ve written a few times in previous Digests, AI data centers – a top Nvidia customer – use huge amounts of energy. Their energy demand has more than doubled this decade. Just take a look at this chart from the February 18 Digest…
But our current energy grid isn’t robust enough to meet the demand. That problem has increased electricity prices. And it can limit the growth of AI companies and businesses using the technology. For instance, as Huang said in his address…
If they could just get more capacity, they could generate more tokens [the fundamental “units” of text or data that an AI large language model produces], their revenues would go up.
Data-center development is taking a hit as a result…
Every quarter, research and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie releases a report on data-center construction projects. And its most recent report, from last week, flashes a big warning sign for the AI boom…
From the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2025, data-center capacity additions fell by half. And that’s something Wood Mackenzie expects to continue into 2026. From the report…
We expect capex growth from the largest developers, including the established hyperscalers, to slow in 2026 for the first time since 2023, to US$94 billion, or 58% of last year’s growth.
That comes at a time when the hyperscalers expect to spend more than $600 billion and Nvidia projects $1 trillion in cumulative sales over the next two years. At the same time, new data-center capacity growth might actually slow.
That’s not a good sign if it’s the start of a longer trend. If hyperscalers continue to struggle to get the capacity they need, they’ll have to pull back on their investments. And if that happens, investors might not take it so well.
But no one would invest hundreds of billions of dollars into AI servers and chips without the electricity to power them.
And the AI ecosystem is interconnected, with companies trading equity stakes for orders. All it takes is one or two canceled agreements to leave a huge hole in multiple companies’ income statements.
Nvidia’s $1 trillion sales goal is the most at risk in that scenario. While AI is still a big story and a market driver today, be careful moving ahead…
Plus, there are other places to put your money that have little or nothing to do with AI and can still outperform the market.
A new index of AI-proof investments…
In the March issue of Retirement Millionaire, sent to subscribers last Wednesday, editor and MarketWise CEO Dr. David “Doc” Eifrig unveiled his “Niche Fortress Index.”
And it reminds me of a theme Doc wrote about at the end of last year – where to find a job, as in the physical trades. As Doc wrote about his Niche Fortress Index in the most recent issue of Retirement Millionaire…
It’s made of stocks that operate in different parts of the industrial economy, but that all share similar traits…
They have no natural predators… They provide critical equipment and services the economy cannot function without… And they are leaders in their respective niches.
Put simply, these companies are ones that provide “boring” but essential parts of the economy. These stocks are a far cry from the outer space-based AI infrastructure that Nvidia just promoted yesterday.
More from Doc…
We’re talking about filters for construction vehicles, precision welding equipment, hydraulic impact wrenches, and heavy-duty enclosures that keep wiring safe.
They operate out of nondescript brick factories in the Midwest or in quiet industrial parks in Europe. They don’t have visionary CEOs who trend on social media. They just have engineers who have spent 30 years perfecting one very specific, very difficult task.
And they all dominate a niche that no one else wants to enter.
That makes these companies great businesses to invest in. And they’ve handily beaten the market over the past 20 years, as Doc shared…
Altogether, Doc and his team put 20 companies in the Niche Fortress Index. Five of them are already in the Retirement Millionaire model portfolio. And Doc considers all five to be strong buys today.
Retirement Millionaire subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can read Doc’s full breakdown of the Niche Fortress Index, get the five names in the index that are buys today, and read a review of the rest of the Retirement Millionaire model portfolio right here.
In this month’s issue, Doc also updated existing portfolio positions and told subscribers to book gains of around 270% (30% annualized), 113% (18% annualized), and roughly 29% (around 20% annualized), plus a 107% gain in just four months.
Tomorrow, futurist Eric Fry will reveal why the mounting chaos we’re witnessing is the precursor leading up to a massive $10 trillion market shock. Eric says that while most people are sitting in stocks at risk of falling 50% or more, virtually no one is talking about a small group of stocks poised to emerge as the 10X winners of 2026. Eric, from our corporate affiliate InvestorPlace, will reveal exactly which stocks to dump and which ones are primed to soar at FutureProof 2026. Reserve your free spot now.
Gold’s recent run-up has already been nothing short of historic… But it’s far from over. In fact, we expect that gold is headed to $10,000 an ounce – and even that might be too low an estimate. One expert has even issued a $20,000 price target. But however high gold ultimately goes… it’s critical you know how to take advantage of its next big move… by checking out the BEST possible gold stock you should buy immediately.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/16/26): BAE Systems (BAESY), BP (BP), Chord Energy (CHRD), Ciena (CIEN), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Duke Energy (DUK), EOG Resources (EOG), Equinor (EQNR), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and ExxonMobil (XOM).
In today’s mailbag, feedback on yesterday’s Digest… which compared the current fears about oil prices and market behavior during and after past Persian Gulf conflicts… Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
“I don’t think the comparison to the 1980s is a valid one. Iran today is much better armed and prepared than the 1980s. If the U.S. Navy enters the Hormuz then the ships will be attacked and potentially sunk.
“Plus there is so much oil that has been taken offline by the Iranian attacks that cannot be replaced for months, if at all. I think the better comparison is with the 1973 oil embargo, oil went from $3 to $12 – i.e., a 300% increase.
“Even when the embargo was lifted the price remained at $12. The stock market plummeted [approximately] 50% and did not bottom until December 1974.” – Subscriber S.J.I.
All the best (and happy St. Patrick’s Day),
Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol Baltimore, Maryland March 17, 2026
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT Microsoft11/11/101,346.4%Retirement MillionaireMSFT Microsoft02/10/121,290.9%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryADP Automatic Data Processing10/09/08809.9%Extreme ValueBRK.B Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09782.9%Retirement MillionaireSII Sprott01/11/18685.1%Extreme ValueGOOGL Alphabet12/15/16653.5%Retirement MillionaireCIEN Ciena10/20/22639.9%Stansberry Innovations ReportWRB W.R. Berkley03/15/12637.0%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryHSY Hershey12/07/07567.8%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryALS-T Altius Minerals03/26/09566.2%Extreme Value
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc3Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter1Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations
Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationWSTETH/USD Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,898.9%Crypto CapitalBTC/USD Bitcoin11/27/181,891.8%Crypto CapitalONE/USD Harmony12/16/191,013.2%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD Polygon02/26/21643.9%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21582.7%Crypto Capital
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame
Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital
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The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is now threatening to revoke several outlets’ licenses over their coverage of the Iran war and accusations that they are not operating in the public interest.
Military tanks and missiles can’t exist without tungsten, but China controls 84% of the global supply.
That’s why, starting on January 1, 2027, the U.S. Government is banning our military from sourcing Chinese tungsten. It’s creating a short window for investors to back domestic mining operations.
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Carvana’s (NYSE: CVNA) board of directors recently approved its first-ever 5-for-1 forward stock split, a milestone that signals a significant new chapter for the online auto retailer. The market responded enthusiastically, with shares climbing in the session following the announcement. This positive reception underscores a broader sentiment: Carvana’s strategic move is much more than an accounting adjustment.
For a company that has navigated a remarkable turnaround, the stock split serves as a confident signal. It represents a strategic pivot from a period of intense recovery to a new phase focused on aggressive, forward-looking growth. This decision, made from a position of renewed strength, offers a compelling look into Carvana’s future and what it could mean for investors.
Elon is famous for creating an army of “Teslanaires” – people who became millionaires by buying Tesla shares.
Now, he’s building an AI breakthrough that could be bigger than Tesla, SpaceX, and Starlink combined.
Nobel-Prize winning scientist Demis Hassabis says it’s “going to be 10 times bigger than the Industrial Revolution, and maybe 10 times faster.”Click here for the details.
From Brink to Breakout Performance
To understand the significance of the stock split, it is crucial to examine the foundation on which it was built. Not long ago, Carvana faced significant operational and financial headwinds, including a heavy debt load and questions about its path to profitability, leading to serious concerns about its future. Carvana, however, has since engineered one of the more dramatic turnarounds in the recent market. Through sharp operational execution and a successful debt restructuring, it has emerged stronger than ever.
The proof is in Carvana’s 2025 financial results. Carvana achieved stunning growth and record-breaking profitability, silencing many of its critics. The key highlights provide a clear picture of this resurgence:
Record Sales Volume: Carvana sold 596,641 retail units, a 43% increase year-over-year.
Surging Revenue: Full-year revenue soared to $20.3 billion, a 49% jump from the previous year.
A Return to Profitability: Carvana reported a full-year net income of $1.9 billion, a stark reversal from previous losses.
The fourth-quarter 2025 performance was particularly impressive, with earnings per share of $4.22. This figure handily beat analyst consensus estimates of just $1.10, showcasing an operational engine firing on all cylinders. This financial health provides the essential context for the stock split, framing it as a well-earned victory lap for a company that has fought hard for the winner’s circle.
Why a Stock Split, and Why Now?
Subject to shareholder approval at the Annual Shareholder Meeting on May 5, 2026, the stock split will take effect on May 6, 2026. After this date, investors will receive four additional shares for every share they currently own. While the number of shares increases fivefold, each share’s price will be reduced to one-fifth its previous value. For example, a stock trading at $300 per share would trade at $60 per share after the split. The total value of an investor’s holding remains unchanged by the split itself.
The primary strategy behind this type of strategic share price move is to enhance accessibility. A lower per-share price can have a powerful psychological impact on investors. For many retail investors, a $60 stock feels far more approachable and affordable than a $300 stock, even though Carvana’s underlying value is the same. This can significantly broaden the investor base.
Carvana’s leadership endorsed this strategy, with Chief Financial Officer Mark Jenkins confirming that the stock split, the first in Carvana’s history, was intended to keep the stock “accessible to all of our team members.” This effort to simplify employee ownership strengthens a culture of confidence and aligns the workforce with shareholder interests. The move, executed from a position of financial strength, is a deliberate and confident signal to the market, and its timing is particularly significant.
Beyond making the stock more accessible, the split could catalyze Carvana’s next phase of growth. Carvana has made it clear that its focus is on scaling its operations and capturing a larger share of the massive used car market. This ambition is underscored by CEO Ernie Garcia’s long-term goal of selling 3 million vehicles annually.
Carvana is already making tangible progress toward this vision. A key example is the recent expansion of its same-day delivery service into the vast and competitive Los Angeles market. This move not only enhances its customer value proposition but also demonstrates its improving logistics network and ability to execute in critical regions. A broader investor base and the increased trading liquidity that often follows a stock split can provide a stable tailwind for a company pursuing an aggressive growth strategy.
Furthermore, Carvana’s stock is known for its high beta of 3.60. Beta measures a stock’s price volatility relative to the overall market. A beta above 1.0, like Carvana’s, indicates it’s more volatile than the market average, a trait that often attracts momentum traders seeking significant price movements. By lowering the price of entry, the split could re-engage this class of investors, potentially driving a new wave of trading activity and interest in the stock.
The Road Ahead: A Green Light from Analysts
Carvana’s 5-for-1 stock split serves as a powerful symbol of a completed turnaround, a strategic tool to broaden its investor base, and a catalyst designed to fuel its next chapter of ambitious growth. The move reflects a leadership team that is confident in its operational execution and financial stability, and it shifts its narrative from recovery to market expansion.
This bullish sentiment is echoed on Wall Street. Among 25 financial analysts covering Carvana, the consensus rating is a Moderate Buy. More tellingly, the average analyst price target sits at $440.59. This target suggests potential upside of over 46% from the stock’s current trading level, indicating that many industry experts believe there is room for Carvana’s valuation to grow further.
For investors, Carvana’s stock split may be viewed as a clear line in the sand. It marks the end of its recovery phase and signals the confident beginning of its renewed push for market dominance.
The Smart Investor’s Guide to Overheated Volatility
Posted On Mar 04, 2026 by Ian Cooper
Keep an eye on the stretched CBOE Volatility Index (CBOE: VIX). At 26.33, the VIX is now challenging October 2025 trade war highs. However, this time, it’s uncertainty about the joint United States and Israel military campaign against Iran that is driving volatility higher.
For one, the conflict appears to be widening. Drones hit the U.S. embassy in Riyadh. The State Department ordered evacuations at facilities in Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan. Hezbollah attacked Tel Aviv. And there are concerns about how long Gulf states can keep themselves safe from Iranian attacks. Plus, President Trump just said the conflict could continue for another four weeks, which raises uncertainty, which markets hate.
In addition, “Market anxiety ratcheted higher overnight amid concerns that a decapitated and leaderless Iranian government and military will execute a prolonged retaliatory response aimed at sowing chaos throughout the region by targeting key economic and energy infrastructure for weeks to come,” said Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge, as quoted by CNBC.
Until there’s clarity, markets could slip even more. Except for oil, which could easily gush higher.
Eventually, the Situation Will Cool Off
This too will pass. It’s easy for investors to say, but harder to internalize in volatile markets. However, right now, even though tensions are sky-high, the VIX is telling us that fear is too hot. And when the temperature goes down in the Middle East, we’ll be offered an opportunity on the short side of volatility.
In fact, if you look at the VIX dating back to early 2022, you can see that with every spike, RSI, MACD and Williams’ %R tell us when the VIX is likely to pivot lower. We saw that happen in April 2025, December 2024, August 2024, April 2024, October 2023, March 2023, October 2022, September 2022, and also in May 2022. Each time the VIX peaked with those three indicators, buying calls on the DIAs, QQQs and the SPY typically paid off well.
One of the best ways to trade an overheated fear gauge is by jumping into inverse VIX ETFs, which move higher when the VIX moves lower.
Take Advantage of Volatility With These ETFs
Here are two of the top ETFs to consider when the VIX moves lower:
The ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (BATS: SVXY) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one-half the inverse (-0.5x) of the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, as noted by ProShares.com.
Specifically, the fund tends to profit from decreases in the expected volatility of the S&P 500, as measured by the prices of VIX futures contracts. The S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index has historically been less volatile than the VIX but significantly more volatile than the S&P 500. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.95%.
Another option is the -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (BATS: SVIX), which is an inverse VIX-linked ETF that seeks to provide daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond generally to the Short VIX Futures Index, as noted by VolatilityShares.com.
Simply put, as the VIX drops, the SVIX ETF rises. The inverse is also true. That’s why the SVIX is down 13.4% in the 30 days ending March 3.
Make Volatility Your Friend
Right now, the headlines are full of doom and gloom. Geopolitical tensions are rising with uncertainty, oil is reacting by gushing higher on fear of what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz, and the VIX is elevated. That combination naturally makes investors uneasy.
But seasoned investors know something important: volatility is emotional. It spikes when uncertainty rises — and it falls when clarity returns. It doesn’t stay elevated forever.
When volatility stops rising on bad news, that’s often the first sign that panic is burning out.
If the VIX begins to roll over, history suggests markets may stabilize and potentially rebound.
That’s when some of the greatest opportunities tend to appear — not when fear is building, but when it starts to fade. For now, patience matters. Let the fear spike. Let the technical signals develop. And be ready to act when conditions begin to normalize.
As Warren Buffett has said, “A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy.” Or, as we learned from Baron Rothschild, “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” His family is now worth $400 billion because of that, by the way.
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Issue: 3/17/2026
Israel Takes Out Iran Leaders
Israel says it killed Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and widely considered the regime’s de facto leader, in an overnight strike carried out with U.S. intelligence support.
Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the strike also took out Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani, the man who oversaw the brutal crackdown on Iranian protesters. Larijani is the highest-ranking official killed since the opening salvo that took out Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Day One of Operation Epic Fury. Tehran has not confirmed the deaths.
Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel is “undermining this regime” to give Iranians “the opportunity to take their destiny into their own hands.”★★★ Cuba Goes Dark, Trump Eyes Takeover
Cuba’s entire national power grid collapsed Monday, plunging all 10 million residents into darkness — the third major blackout in four months as the Trump administration’s oil blockade chokes off fuel shipments.
President Trump told Fox News senior White House correspondent Peter Doocy he believes he’ll have the “honor of taking Cuba”, calling the island a “failed nation” with “no money, no oil, no nothing.”
Cuba’s deputy prime minister announced the government would allow Cuban exiles to invest in companies on the island — a radical concession from the communist regime. President Díaz-Canel confirmed Friday that Havana is in talks with Washington.★★★ Kent Quits, Trump Says “Good”
National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent resigned Tuesday in protest of the Iran war, calling it unjustified and blaming Israeli pressure for dragging the U.S. into the conflict.
Kent, a Gold Star husband and 11-tour combat veteran, is the first senior Trump official to quit over the war. President Trump dismissed him from the Oval Office, saying it’s a “good thing” he’s out.
A senior administration official told Fox News Kent was a “known leaker” who had been cut out of intelligence briefings months ago and played no role in Iran planning. Press Secretary Leavitt called Kent’s claims “false.” Illinois Votes Today: Durbin’s Seat Up for Grabs
Illinois voters are heading to the polls today in a crowded primary to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin. Democrats are split between Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi, Robin Kelly, and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton. Republicans hope to field a competitive nominee in November.
★★★ Crenshaw Blames “Misinformation” for Blowout Loss
Ousted Rep. Dan Crenshaw told CBS his 15-point primary loss to Steve Toth was “basically a product” of online smears about stock trading. MAGA allies fired back: Trump adviser Alex Bruesewitz said Crenshaw is “auditioning for a left-leaning TV gig.”
★★★ Tuberville Doubles Down on Mamdani Post
Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for Alabama governor, defended his post linking NYC’s socialist Muslim mayor to 9/11. Asked to explain Tuesday, Tuberville said, “I just go by his rhetoric,” while Democrats demanded an apology he won’t give
DHS Shutdown Hits Spring Break
The DHS shutdown is hammering airports during peak spring break travel, with TSA callout rates spiking above 50% at Houston Hobby and over 300 officers quitting. A TSA official warned that smaller airports may have to close entirely.★★★ House Dems Push Discharge Petition
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries announced a discharge petition launch for Wednesday, March 18, targeting a bill to fund TSA, FEMA, and the Coast Guard — while deliberately excluding ICE and CBP funding
★★★ GOP Mail-In Fight Threatens SAVE Act Vote
Trump’s push to eliminate no-excuse absentee voting sent establishment RINOs into meltdown mode. Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) are firm “no” votes, and aides say the motion to proceed Tuesday may not hit 51.
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Trump Holds at 44% — Rasmussen’s Tuesday tracker: 44% approve, 54% disapprove, with a Presidential Approval Index of -16. Twenty-nine percent strongly approve, 45% strongly disapprove.
Illinois Senate: Krishnamoorthi Leads — With voters heading to the polls today to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, Decision Desk HQ’s polling average shows Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi at 34%, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton at 30%, and Rep. Robin Kelly at 14%. Pritzker has poured $5 million backing Stratton, but Krishnamoorthi’s $30 million war chest may be too much to overcome.
Military Still Popular — Eighty-one percent of likely voters view the U.S. military favorably, and most are confident America’s armed forces can deal with foreign enemies — a strong foundation of public support as Operation Epic Fury enters its third week.
Iran’s Regime Is Crumbling Khamenei dead. Larijani dead. The Basij commander is dead. The new supreme leader hasn’t appeared publicly. Operation Epic Fury is dismantling the mullahs one strike at a time.
Cuba’s Last Lights Going Out The island is dark, the government is begging exiles to invest, and Díaz-Canel is in secret talks with Washington. Maximum pressure works. Communist regimes collapse when you cut off the money.
NATO Freeloaders Say “Not Our War” Germany says the Hormuz crisis isn’t their problem, while 20% of the world’s oil flows through the strait, and Europe imports more Gulf oil than it does. Trump is right to call them out.
Minneapolis: A Deterrence Problem Over 1,000 auto thefts in two months under Walz and Frey — a 35% surge. The police chief blamed ICE. A retired trooper told Fox the real problem is simple: no consequences, more crime.
“When somebody is working with us that says they didn’t think Iran was a threat, we don’t want those people. They’re not smart people, or they’re not savvy people.”
RJ Hamster 