I was born on 6 August 1956 in San Francisco, California to Janet and (the late) Richard Hovis.
I grew up in Santa Monica, California where I attended elementary, junior high school, and high school (graduating in 1974), in addition to involvement in sports and recreation (Little League +, the Boy’s Club ++). Further, it was in elementary school – St. Augustine’s By-the -Sea Parish School that I found, and made the choice to truly journey with God.
I attended Arizona State University from 1974 to 1977 – seeking to become an architect, however, I was not accepted, and, as such, I graduated with a Liberal Arts degree.
Upon graduation from Arizona State University, I attended Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and studied City and Regional Planning at the Master’s level. I successfully completed one (1) year in a two (2) year program – I did not complete the Master’s degree in City and Regional Planning – due to personal reasons.
I returned to Santa Monica where I started (October 1979) my career as graphic designer with Exxon Company, USA. I spent five years with Exxon Company, USA.
While working with Exxon Company, USA I was accepted into architectural school – Sci-Arc in Southern California, however, I did not attend preferring to stay with Exxon..
In 1982 I married Laura Flosi and in April 1983 we had our one and only child – Lauren Alain Hovis – a gift from God.
We moved to Phoenix, Arizona in 1984 from Los Angeles, where I went to work as a graphic designer with Kitchell CEM (from 1985 -1987).
From 1987 – 1995 I was an independent contractor, and a registered representative in mortgage finance, financial management, graphic design, and drafting.
Further, I attended the University of Phoenix and successfully obtained a Master’s in Business Administration (MBA) in 1982.
I was also a member of the Scottsdale Jaycees, where I became very involved in community events and projects.
In 1994, I accepted a cartography position with the Defense Mapping Agency in Reston, Virginia. As such, I relocated from Phoenix to Reston.
In 1998, I was accepted and worked as a Visual Information Officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. In 2002, I worked as a Support Officer until my retirement (due to a need for shoulder surgery) in September 2018.
Away from my Federal Government service, I have been involved in various organizations and activities in Northern Virginia.
In November of 2011, I married Rebecca Ouellette in Santa Monica, California. I reside in San Tan Valley, AZ with my two hamster - Jess and Timothy, our fish, our lizard - RJ Lizard., and our cats - Pearl and Grey.
As to hobbies, I enjoy playing sports, attending sporting events, mentoring individuals from financial management to hamsters, building models, photography, travel, multimedia design, managing partner for RJ Hamster, and jazz – smooth jazz to a samba or a bossa nova.
Love and God Bless,
Peter – aka RJ Hamster Jo hi
Years ago, I prayed with Mother Teresa in Rome, and I’ve never forgotten what she said. “Love is not something you say, it’s something you do.” Today I’m asking you to put your love for God’s Chosen People into action and reach out to those who are suffering so much. We have received a generous matching gift challenge that will double your gift to help twice as many people—so please be as generous as you can when you send your gift today.
The situation is urgent. So many people have lost homes, family members, and even everything they owned in the missile attacks. I’m thinking about families like the Cohens. They buried six family members on the day their son was supposed to have his bar mitzvah. We helped them with the medical bills, buying clothing, and more, and they were so grateful. But there are so many others in urgent need.
The people of Israel are suffering greatly right now, and while they need our prayers, they also need our help. Together we are answering the command of God, “Comfort ye My people.” Together we are telling, and more importantly showing, the people of Israel that they are not alone. Please send your most generous gift today and share this with everyone you know.
Your support of the Friends of Zion today allows us to comfort the people of Israel who have survived the terrorist attacks, minister to the families of the hostages, continue to purchase and deliver food, medicine, clothing, and other necessities of life for the poor Holocaust survivors and refugees of Ukraine, continue to operate the Friends of Zion Museum, and to meet urgent humanitarian needs among the poor Jewish people living in Israel. Thank you so much for being part of this vital worldwide prayer movement.
You know it’s serious when the economic conversation spills over onto the usually “fun” side of social media.
A few days ago, a post crossed my Instagram feed with this warning: “The AI bubble is 17x larger than the dot-com bubble,” it read. “And 4x larger than the 2008 Financial crisis.”
People swarmed the comments. They wanted to know what happens to their savings… or the cash under the mattress… if the bubble pops.
“What if I’ve avoided AI this whole time?” one person asked. “How will it affect me?”
They’re not wrong to ask. If we look at the last two bubbles, the effects when they popped rippled beyond people’s stock accounts.
The dot-com crash contributed to an eight-month recession in 2001. By the spring of 2004, an estimated 403,300 jobs had been lost in the IT sector alone.
The effects of the 2008 crash were even deeper.
A Frontline article published in 2012 (four years after the stock market’s collapse) showed that:
There were still 12.5 million people out of work, not saving for retirement, and not contributing to the GDP.
The government had poured about $23 trillion into a host of programs and bailouts.
Real estate had lost roughly $7 trillion, stocks $11 trillion, and retirement accounts another $3.4 trillion.
The Census Bureau’s 2010 estimate said 46.2 million people were in poverty – the largest number in 52 years.
I’m not saying this to scare you. But with the AI bubble getting bigger each day, we can’t afford to bury our heads in the sand.
And what nobody mentioned in that discussion I read last week was the story we’ve been tracking in these pages. Yet it provides the clearest answer to the one question that kept coming up: What can I do about it?
One Market, Two Signals
On April 17, I wrote to you about the Crude Oil Civil War we’re seeing. You can read that full essay here. The short version is this: There’s a civil war happening in the crude oil markets, and most people don’t know it’s connected to the AI bubble.
What’s happening is that the “right now” price for physical oil is telling a very different story than the “future” price traders expect to pay in the months ahead.
You can see that in the chart below, which shows the gap (or “spread”) between physical oil prices and futures prices.
That gap hasn’t been this high since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
What does it mean?
On one hand, the physical market is screaming “shortage.” Buyers need barrels NOW, and they’re paying anything to get them.
That’s because the Iran conflict has a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. That’s the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passed before the war started in February.
On the other hand, traders are saying, “This is temporary. It’ll resolve soon.”
The problem is the market has been saying that for two months. And yet, as you can see, the gap is not really getting any smaller.
This matters because oil touches the price of everything we buy. The longer prices stay high, the more every airline, trucking fleet, chemical plant, and utility in the world will see its primary input cost rise.
And oil prices just hit fresh wartime highs on Friday.
Some of that exposure is hedged, but those hedges don’t last forever. It can take 6-12 months for the full effects to show up. By the time most people feel it, the damage is already done.
Why the “Smart” Money Is Trapped
The irony is that, at the exact moment oil is making historic moves, the institutions managing your retirement savings are legally handcuffed from owning it.
Take CalSTRS, one of the largest pension funds in America. It manages $368 billion in public equities. Between 2022 and 2025, it slashed its traditional (fossil fuels) energy weighting by 36% and moved $30 billion into low-carbon investments.
Even when we zoom out to all of energy combined, it’s still one of the most underowned sectors in the market. In 2008, it represented 15% of the S&P 500.
Today, it sits at only 3.5%. Compare that to the IT sector, which represents an enormous 32% of the market.
That is a generational abandonment of energy in favor of tech. And history shows us what happens when an unloved sector gets an unexpected catalyst. It snaps back violently.
We saw this back in 2020, when energy hit a record-low weight of just 2% of the S&P 500. Most investors left it for dead after Covid lockdowns crushed oil demand.
That was a mistake. Energy went from the worst-performing sector in 2020 to the top performer in 2021. It gained 46% vs. the S&P 500’s 27%.
By 2022, energy was the only sector in the S&P 500 that finished positive, up 58%. Ten other sectors fell, and the broader index dropped 19%.
That’s a roughly 315% cumulative gain from the unloved bottom over two years, in the most hated sector in the market.
This time, with the physical oil market flashing stress signals, Daily Editor Teeka Tiwari believes we’ll see an even sharper snapback.
Just last week, Al Jazeera published a piece that asked, “When will the Strait of Hormuz be ‘safe’ for commercial shipping again?” The answer boiled down to: Not anytime soon. From that April 28 article:
About 2,000 ships remain stranded in the Gulf. Even if the strait reopens to all traffic, the United States has said it could take six months to clear mines it believes have been laid by Iran.
That is one reason maritime insurers cancelled “war risk” insurance for tankers traveling through the strait in March.
Al Jazeera reported this could push premiums up to 5% of hull value. Before the war, that number was only about 0.25%.
Hull value refers to what the ship itself is worth. Think of it like an insurance appraisal on the vessel, the same way your home has an appraised value before you can insure it. A 5% premium tells us insurers are still pricing the Strait of Hormuz like a war zone, not a shipping lane.
In other words, the crude market is only getting more fractured. And when oil sends mixed signals like this, it usually means the stress has not yet fully worked its way through the economy… and the household names in your retirement portfolio.
The “Paycheck” Strategy for This Market
This is where the oil story connects to the AI bubble.
If oil keeps rising, costs rise across the economy. That matters for every company. But it matters most for the companies already priced for perfection.
The first wave of AI gains went to the obvious names: Nvidia, AMD, Meta, Microsoft, and the rest of the high-flying tech giants.
But those stocks are now swinging violently. One day, investors are questioning whether AI companies will follow through on their promises. The next day, the same stocks are ripping higher.
We saw this with last week’s earnings. Meta and Microsoft beat analyst expectations, and yet they crashed 9% and 4%. Why? Because investors got spooked on AI spending.
That kind of volatility is exactly what we’d expect in a crowded trade. Teeka has been sounding the alarm on this since late last year. And in the January 6 Daily, he wrote:
Right now, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla are trading at an average weighted earnings multiple of 56x. That means you have to be willing to pay up to $56 today for every $1 the company earns in a year.
These names are trading at more than 2.5x the entire S&P 500. If that’s not a red flag, I don’t know what is.
We’re not interested in chasing that. Instead, Big T believes the biggest winners from AI won’t necessarily be the flashy tech names everyone is buying today.
The real gains will come from blue-chip companies using AI to improve their margins, cut costs, and boost productivity.
That’s exactly what Teeka’s “Nvidia’s $16 Trillion Paycheck Program” is designed to do. It doesn’t involve buying a single share of Nvidia. It doesn’t involve chasing risky AI startups. And it doesn’t require you to guess which chatbot wins.
Instead, it focuses on a select group of blue-chip companies positioned to benefit from AI adoption while paying reliable dividends along the way. The next scheduled payout is May 15. You can learn more about it here before that deadline.
The bottom line is this: Even people with no money in the markets are starting to sound the alarm on the AI bubble. In times like these, you don’t want to play a high-stakes guessing game.
You want to own the companies built to win no matter what happens next… and get paid while everyone else is guessing.
“It is a rough road that leads to the heights of greatness.”
— Seneca the Younger
Cathy He Politics Editor
Good morning, happy Monday! Here are today’s top stories.
U.S. forces will “help free up” shipstrapped in the Strait of Hormuz starting this morning, President Donald Trump said.
Iranian officials sent a message to the United States via Pakistan for a two-month-long ceasefire amid negotiations to end the war, according to state-run media.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is hospitalized and in critical condition, according to his spokesperson, who did not provide further details on Giuliani’s condition or the reason for his hospitalization.
The bullet that hit a Secret Service agent just outside of the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner was fired by the gunman and was not friendly fire, said Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia.
🍵 Health: Our reporter tried waking up at 5 a.m. for 30 days. Here’s what happened.
The Ateela 2 Oil Tanker boat navigates the sea on Qeshm Island, Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz, on April 28, 2026. (Asghar Besharati/Getty Images)
U.S. forces will “help free up” ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz starting on Monday morning, President Donald Trump said on May 3.
Trump said countries from across the world had asked the United States to help move the stranded ships.
“They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business.”
Trump said on Sunday that the ships the United States will help move are “not in any way involved” with the conflict in the Middle East and described the operation as a “humanitarian gesture.”
“I have told my Representatives to inform them that we will use best efforts to get their Ships and Crews safely out of the Strait,” Trump added.
“In all cases, they said they will not be returning until the area becomes safe for navigation, and everything else.”
Trump did not reveal whether the U.S. Navy would be involved.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on May 4 that its forces will begin assisting merchant vessels “seeking to freely transit” through the Strait of Hormuz as part of a mission known as “Project Freedom.”
The command said that 15,000 U.S. service members, guided-missile destroyers, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and over 100 land and sea-based aircraft will take part in the mission.
“Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,” CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said in a statement.
The announcement was made hours after the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said a bulk carrier was attacked by multiple small craft as it transited toward the Strait of Hormuz near Iran on Sunday.Sponsored by Birch Gold Group
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IRAN CEASEFIRE
Trump said the United States will withdraw even more U.S. troops from Germany than previously confirmed amid Washington’s disagreement with Berlin over the Iran war. The Pentagon had said that it was pulling 5,000 U.S. troops stationed in Germany, but Trump later said, “We’re cutting a lot further than 5,000.”
A bulk carrier was attacked by multiple small craft as it transited toward the Strait of Hormuz. The incident occurred about 11 miles west of Sirik, Iran, according to a warning issued by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.
POLITICS
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said that U.S. airlines will assist stranded passengers and displaced workers after Spirit Airlines shut down its operations on Saturday.
The No Surprises Act, which went into effect in 2022, was designed to protect patients against surprise bills when they receive care from an out-of-network provider. Data suggest it has also had the unintended effect of raising medical costs.
LATEST NEWS
U.S. and Moroccan forces are conducting a search and rescue operation after two U.S. Army soldiersparticipating in training exercises in Morocco were reported missing and may have fallen into the ocean on May 2, officials said.
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said that former FBI Director James Comey wasn’t just indicted for his “86 47” seashell social media post.
Four noncitizen residents of New Jersey have been charged in separate criminal complaints for allegedly voting in federal elections, which is illegal, and then lying about it when applying for U.S. citizenship.
🇺🇸 AMERICA AT 250: On April 18, 1775, two lanterns hung in the steeple of Boston’s Old North Church signaled the movement of British troops, providing early warning for the Patriots. While best known for its role in the American Revolution, our senior reporter, Lawrence Wilson, explains why the story of the Old North Church is the story of America.
A piece of wreckage of China Eastern Airlines flight MU5735 after it crashed on the mountain in Tengxian County, Guangxi Province, China, on March 21, 2022. (Xinhua via AP)
WORLD
Newly disclosed U.S. investigative records are shedding light on the final moments of China Eastern Airlines Flight MU5735 in 2022, revealing critical flight data that had not been made public in the four years since the deadly crash.
Three guests are dead as a suspected hantavirus outbreak spreads on board a cruise ship currently in the Atlantic Ocean, while three others are ill, according to the World Health Organization.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te arrived in Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, for a state visit, resuming a trip that had been initially canceled because of interference from Beijing.
China’s already-strained economy faces mounting pressure as the Iran war threatens to choke export growth and suppress domestic demand, putting its 4.5 percent growth target at risk, experts say.
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Students for Life is conducting an urgent national poll to gauge the enthusiasm of pro-lifers as the 2026 Midterms heat up.
Compassion Unbridled by Prudence and Reason Is a Wrecking Ball—by Jeff Minick (Read)
Iran Is Losing This War, and the Global Balance of Power Is Shifting—by Victor Davis Hanson (Read)
Why Tech Giants Cannot Hide Behind Diplomacy—by Dr. Can Sun (Read)
People attend the Cinco de Mayo parade in Saint Paul, Minnesota, on May 2, 2026. Cinco de Mayo commemorates Mexico’s unlikely victory over the Second French Empire at the Battle of Puebla in 1862. (Kerem Yucel / AFP via Getty Images)
📸 America in Photos: The Royals Visit US, Project HERO, and Kentucky Derby (Look)
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🎭 Culture: They Grew Up on 15-Second Videos. Now They Sit Through 3-Hour Operas (Read)
It’s 4:53 a.m. on a Monday in January. Myroom in upstate New York is frigid; I dread opening my eyes, let alone leaving my bed. The alarm hasn’t gone off, but I know what’s coming.
I sit upright, drag a jacket over me, and reach for the bottle I set on the table the night before.
Eighteen ounces of water spiked with my favorite electrolytes, followed by a cup of hot tea. This is the first of many small traps I’ve laid to outsmart the version of me that, in about four seconds, will want nothing more than to disappear under the cozy blanket.
But I don’t disappear, at least not today.
That was day three of my 30-day experiment of waking up at 5 a.m. By then, I’d already learned the first rule of early rising: Morning you is a different version than the one who set the alarm the night before. One is idealistic, the other is guaranteed to hit snooze. Thus, you have to build systems to outplay your drowsy self, because at the crack of dawn, you fall to the bottom of your habits.
For me, my systems included: phone far from the bed, water ready, and gym clothes laid out. First, run on autopilot until you’re vertical, then it’s somewhat downstream from there.
If you leave anything to decision-making, you will end up choosing the pillow. Every time.
Part of my reasoning was journalistic. I wanted to test the 5 a.m.gospel that fills the productivity space; the promise that if you just wake up earlier, life will have no choice but to bow at your feet. (More)
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“That is not a partnership. It’s NVIDIA buying optionality on its own optical supply chain.”
Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance
NVIDIA cannot do its job without Lumentum (LITE).
When NVIDIA sells a rack of GPUs to a hyperscaler, the chips inside still have to talk to each other.
They do that through high-speed optical transceivers, which are devices that turn electrical signals into pulses of light so data can move through fiber optic cables at extreme speeds.
Lumentum makes the lasers and modules that carry that light.
In 2026, NVIDIA made a $2 billion strategic investment in Lumentum and committed to multi-billion-dollar purchase agreements over the coming years.
In other words, NVIDIA is buying optionality on its own optical supply chain.
But none of that is why it is on my watchlist right now.
It is on my watchlist because of what the chart shows.
The Business
The bottleneck in the entire AI buildout is not GPU supply. It is bandwidth, the speed at which thousands of chips can talk to each other inside a data center.
As AI models get bigger, that speed becomes the constraint.
The industry is moving from 800G to 1.6T transceivers, which means upgrading the optical hardware from 800 gigabits per second to 1.6 terabits per second of data transfer.
Lumentum controls roughly 50 to 60 percent of the market share in the laser chips that make 1.6T possible.
Q2 FY26 revenue was up 65 percent year over year to $665 million. The company guided Q3 to $780-830 million, which would be 85 percent year-over-year growth.
Operating margins jumped from 7 percent to 25 percent in a year, and the order backlog for optical circuit switches alone is over $400 million.
The stock has doubled in 2026, was added to the S&P 500, and has now beaten earnings eight quarters in a row.
The TPS Setup
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My system runs three checks before I look at any trade. Trend, Pattern, Squeeze. In that order.
The trend check starts with the moving averages. An exponential moving average, or EMA, weights recent prices more heavily than older data. A simple moving average, or SMA, treats every closing price equally over a defined period.
On Lumentum’s daily chart, price is sitting above the 8-day EMA. The 8-day is above the 20-day EMA. The 20-day is well above the 200-day SMA. That is a fully stacked structure with price on top, which tells me the trend has momentum at every timeframe I check.
The same stacked structure holds on the weekly chart. When both daily and weekly confirm, the trend has institutional weight behind it.
The pattern is a squeeze forming on the daily chart. A squeeze occurs when Bollinger Bands, which track how far price has strayed from its average, compress inside the Keltner Channels, which measure volatility based on average daily range.
When the bands contract inside the channels, momentum is coiling before a release.
The trend is confirmed on daily and weekly charts. A squeeze is active on the daily.
The Bear Case
The stock is up 1,444 percent over the last twelve months. That is a lot of good news already priced in.
The bigger problem is the calendar.
Earnings hit Tuesday after the close. A loaded squeeze on a runner like this, heading into a binary catalyst with eight consecutive beats already in the rearview, is one of the riskiest setups in the market.
Any guidance missed or cautious 1.6T commentary on the call resets the entire narrative.
I do not take trades into earnings.
Your Action Plan
The trade, if there is one, is what happens after Tuesday.
Look at what Intel did last week. Earnings came in strong. The stock gapped higher and kept trending up in the sessions after the print. That is institutional conviction showing up after the binary event.
That is the move I am watching for on Lumentum.
A beat that fades the rip, no trade. A miss takes it off the table. A modest move with no conviction is just noise.
If you want to know how I’m moving, which trades I’m taking, you can find out more here.Want more content like this?
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(19) Is the seed still in the barn? As yet the vine, the fig tree, the pomegranate, and the olive tree have not yielded fruit.But from this day I will bless you.’” (20) And again the word of the LORD came to Haggai on the twenty-fourth day of the month, saying, (21) “Speak to Zerubbabel, governor of Judah, saying: ‘ I will shake heaven and earth. (22) I will overthrow the throne of kingdoms; I will destroy the strength of the Gentile kingdoms. I will overthrow the chariots And those who ride in them; The horses and their riders shall come down, Every one by the sword of his brother. (23) ‘In that day,’ says the LORD of hosts, ‘I will take you, Zerubbabel My servant, the son of Shealtiel,’ says the LORD, ‘and will make you like a signet ring; for I have chosen you,’ says the LORD of hosts.” New King James VersionChange email Bible version
The second Kislev 24 prophecy, recorded in Haggai 2:20-23, spells out a readily identifiable blessing: righteous leadership. Verse 23 singles out Zerubbabel, and though there may be a number of lesser fulfillments of this, it is important to recognize that the ultimate fulfillment of Zerubbabel’s role is Jesus Christ. Zerubbabel was the governor of Judah after the Babylonian captivity. A member of the Davidic line, he was also part of Jesus’ lineage on Joseph’s side (Matthew 1:12-13). Zerubbabel typifies Christ, the perfect governor and ruler.
Zerubbabel is called God’s servant, but so is Christ (Matthew 12:18; John 13:16; Acts 3:13, 26; 4:27, 30; Romans 15:8). Zerubbabel was chosen, but so was Christ (Matthew 12:18; Luke 23:35; I Peter 2:4). Zerubbabel received God’s seal, but so did Christ (John 6:27). God chose Zerubbabel and his Descendant—his most important Descendent—to be His signature ring. God set His seal on Zerubbabel, but more importantly, He set His seal on Zerubbabel’s descendant, the Messiah.
When we understand this, we can better understand the imagery of Haggai 2:19. Kislev 24 falls in the winter, a time of short days and long nights. The harvesting has been done, and everyone hopes that enough has been stored to last until the vines, trees, and crops begin producing fruit again. Even in a good year, winter is not usually a time of blessing. Yet, God chose this bleakest of times to start His blessing—one whose highest fulfillment would be found in the perfect leadership, work, and cleansing sacrifice of Jesus Christ.
This sets up an interesting possibility. Jesus was most likely born sometime in the fall (see “When Was Jesus Born?“). If we count back nine months, we arrive at a date in the winter. It is possible, then, that Kislev 24 is the date when the power of the Most High God overshadowed Mary and caused her to conceive the Messiah (Luke 1:35).
A play on words in verse 19 seems to support this. The question is asked, “Is the seed still in the barn?” The word translated as “seed” is elsewhere translated as “child” or “posterity.” Zerubbabel means “seed of Babylon” or “planted in Babylon.” More importantly, when God told Abraham, “In your seed all the nations of the earth shall be blessed” (Genesis 22:18; 28:14), the Seed that God was referring to was Jesus Christ—42 generations later!
Haggai 2:19 is describing a time when the seeds from the previous harvest are not in the barn because they have been planted, but it is before any fruit was produced. It could also, then, describe a Child who has been conceived but not yet born—and through that Child, the blessing of cleansing and leadership would come for Judah, Israel, the church, and eventually the entire world. If Jesus were conceived on this date, it would be a remarkably apt application of what God means when He says, “From this day I will bless.”
As significant as Kislev 24 is—and it is significant, if for no other reason than that it is mentioned, directly or indirectly, five times in one chapter—and as significant as it may be again in the future, we do not have to wait for winter for God’s blessing. God is already blessing us.
However, He is not just blessing us for our own sakes. He is blessing those whom He has called so that through the cleansing that we have, the High Priest that we have, the Holy Spirit that we have, and the pure and clean hearts that we are developing, our lives may be a testimony of what God is willing to do for His covenant people.
Margaret Thatcher becomes the first female Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Her policies and leadership would heavily influence global politics and relations with the U.S. throughout the 1980s.
From space systems to cybersecurity and advanced weapons, defense innovation is accelerating. These 3 stocks are tied to critical technologies shaping the future of global security.
When a secretive project gets a name, it means we’re closer to a breakthrough than most people think. When Golden Dawn launches, it could instantly leapfrog ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok – and trigger a $100 trillion reset of the AI markets. Louis Navellier is revealing the one stock at the center of it – down to the ticker – but only through May 5. Go here to get the details, free.Federal Reserve faces unorthodox leadership change: Warsh enters, Powell remains
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy emphasizes that Spirit Airlines’ failure stemmed from internal issues. Continue Reading ➔
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TFI Earnings Beat: Is This Stock the Freight Recovery King?
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson on April 30, 2026
Key Points
TFI International’s Less-Than-Truckload segment experienced a dramatic positive reversal in shipment volumes, signaling a sustainable demand recovery.
TFI International is achieving higher revenue per truck by intentionally reducing its fleet size, proving a strong focus on profitability over market share.
Following a strong earnings beat and improved guidance, Wall Street analysts are upgrading their ratings and price targets for the company.
The transportation sector continues to weather a protracted freight recession, with persistent margin compression and volume headwinds challenging even the most established operators. Within the confines of this difficult backdrop, TFI International (NYSE: TFII) delivered first-quarter resultsthat suggest a cyclical bottom is forming for best-in-class logistics companies. TFI International’s ability to manipulate operational levers and extract profitability in a weak market signals a potential turning point, positioning it to capture significant upside as supply chains normalize and industrial activity rebounds.
The most compelling evidence of a market shift lies within TFI International’s Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment, its largest division by revenue. The segment underwent a dramatic intra-quarter reversal that far outpaced general market trends. After starting the year with a 10% year-over-year decline in shipment volumes in January, exacerbated by severe weather, momentum shifted severely, with March volumes expanding by 8%.
Management confirmed on its April 27, 2026, earnings call that this positive trend has continued into the second quarter, suggesting the demand inflection is not a temporary rebound but the start of a sustainable recovery.
This volume inflection is the direct catalyst behind management’s aggressive forward guidance. TFI expects a sequential improvement of 400–500 basis points in its consolidated operating ratio (OR) for Q2. The LTL segment is forecast to lead this charge with a remarkable 600–700 basis-point sequential OR improvement.
This suggests that as volumes return, TFI International’s leaner cost structure and improved network density will allow a greater percentage of revenue to flow through to operating income. This improvement is further supported by the delayed implementation of a general rate increase (GRI) in mid-March, which will provide a pricing tailwind through the second quarter. While TFI International’s service levels are still being refined to match industry leaders, this volume recovery provides the operational leverage needed to be more selective with freight and begin closing the pricing gap with peers.
The Art of Shrinking to Grow
While the LTL segment shows signs of a volume recovery, the Truckload division demonstrates the power of disciplined fleet management and strategic market focus. TFI grew its revenue per truck per week, excluding fuel surcharges, by 8.6% in the first quarter. This was accomplished while simultaneously reducing its total truck count by 7.1%.
This dynamic of running fewer assets while generating higher revenue per unit is a clear indicator of a management team focused on productivity and profitability over sheer market share. It reflects a cultural shift, particularly within the legacy Daseke operations, from being good truckers to being good businessmen who prioritize return on invested capital.
This operational discipline is translating directly into pricing power, particularly in TFI International’s industrial-focused end markets. Management noted that recent U.S. flatbed contract renewals are coming in at high-single to low-double-digit increases. This pricing strength is partially driven by a tightening of capacity across the U.S. and Canada, as regulatory actions have removed unsafe and non-compliant operators from the market. By focusing on industrial freight, such as the rapidly growing logistics for data center construction, which grew from $8 million to $21 million in revenue year-over-year, TFI insulates itself from the volatility of retail-centric freight and aligns with a potential North American industrial renaissance.
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The Political Risk Masking TFI’s True Potential
Despite the strong quarterly performance and optimistic Q2 outlook, management has refrained from issuing full-year 2026 guidance. This caution is primarily linked to geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, specifically the mandatory joint review of the USMCA (CUSMA) trade agreement scheduled for July 2026. This event creates a certainty cliff for cross-border freight, a highly profitable business for TFI. While this presents a near-term risk that tempers full-year forecasts, it also creates a coiled spring scenario. A smooth and favorable resolution to the trade pact review would likely trigger a significant relief rally and force analysts to revise full-year estimates upward.
TFI International’s capital allocation strategy underscores its internal confidence. Within the earnings report, the board approved a 4% increase in the quarterly dividend to 47 cents per share. This move came even as Q1 free cash flow declined year over year to $123.7 million, a dip management attributed to a temporary working capital distortion due to the timing of fuel payments. Raising the dividend against this backdrop signals a strong belief in the sustainability of future cash flows and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders throughout the economic cycle.
TFI International Charts a New Course
The first-quarter earnings beat and strong guidance were major catalysts for TFI International, sending shares to a new 52-week high on heavy volume. The stock’s performance reflects the emerging narrative, with a year-to-date return of over 35%.
Sell-side analysts have moved quickly to validate the thesis. Following the report, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy and raised its price target to a street-high $161. The current consensus rating stands as a Moderate Buy, reflecting a mix of bullish outlooks and some analysts waiting for further confirmation of the recovery.
Investors seeking exposure to the freight cycle may find TFI International’s demonstrated operational control a compelling reason to add the stock to their watchlist. While macroeconomic risks tied to trade policy and fuel costs persist, TFI International’s ability to drive a margin inflection before a full-blown market recovery sets it apart. Those with a higher risk tolerance might view the current momentum as the beginning of a sustained cyclical upswing, whereas more cautious investors may prefer to monitor for a potential consolidation before establishing a position.
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